Bitcoin Forum
March 29, 2024, 12:24:28 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 26.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: What happens first:
$65,000 - 59 (86.8%)
$48,000 - 9 (13.2%)
Total Voters: 68

Pages: « 1 ... 21865 21866 21867 21868 21869 21870 21871 21872 21873 21874 21875 21876 21877 21878 21879 21880 21881 21882 21883 21884 21885 21886 21887 21888 21889 21890 21891 21892 21893 21894 21895 21896 21897 21898 21899 21900 21901 21902 21903 21904 21905 21906 21907 21908 21909 21910 21911 21912 21913 21914 [21915] 21916 21917 21918 21919 21920 21921 21922 21923 21924 21925 21926 21927 21928 21929 21930 21931 21932 21933 21934 21935 21936 21937 21938 21939 21940 21941 21942 21943 21944 21945 21946 21947 21948 21949 21950 21951 21952 21953 21954 21955 21956 21957 21958 21959 21960 21961 21962 21963 21964 21965 ... 33206 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26336993 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (170 posts by 1 users with 9 merit deleted.)
gentlemand
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 3008


Welt Am Draht


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:20:29 AM

Whales like to dump on holidays.  Christmas unlikely to be pretty.

I'll bet those sadistic bastards persuaded their children and parents to buy in at the top and have not told them that they themselves own coins.

For Christmas they'll probably give the family home a 55 inch market feed screen in pride of place in the front room, then go to the toilet and crash the price. While everyone else is watching in tears they'll give them 'impartial' encouragement until they wipe their tears away and trade into his sells with a heart bursting with possibilities.

Then the whale goes outside for a 'smoke' and crashes the price again.
1711715068
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715068

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715068
Reply with quote  #2

1711715068
Report to moderator
There are several different types of Bitcoin clients. The most secure are full nodes like Bitcoin Core, but full nodes are more resource-heavy, and they must do a lengthy initial syncing process. As a result, lightweight clients with somewhat less security are commonly used.
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction.
1711715068
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715068

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715068
Reply with quote  #2

1711715068
Report to moderator
1711715068
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715068

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715068
Reply with quote  #2

1711715068
Report to moderator
1711715068
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1711715068

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1711715068
Reply with quote  #2

1711715068
Report to moderator
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:40:51 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   Tongue Tongue
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:47:11 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.
Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?
bitserve
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806
Merit: 1454


Self made HODLER ✓


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:49:29 AM

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   Tongue Tongue

I don't have noodles in my ass.
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:51:54 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go.  

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.


There goes my last sMerit.
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:54:56 AM

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.
xhomerx10
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3794
Merit: 7805



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 01:57:36 AM
Merited by dandannn (2)

What's the rationale behind the Bitcorn halving by the way? Why not some sort of continuous curve that converges to zero?

To give us a wee thrill to look forward to every few years?

Perhaps Satoshi was a shameless showman after all. Everyone loves a cliffhanger.

I'd rather be poor and have a full head of hair than be rich and bald

At the age of 43 or whatever I am mine's just starting to fray.

I wouldn't mind at all if it was turning into a widow's peak, that's a good look, but mine's only going directly in the centre of the forehead which looks fucking awful so I'm going to wind up looking like the victim of a driveby lobotomy.

Weird how just a few square cm on one portion of your skull turns you from someone normal-looking to a drooling goon.

Had to shave my head for years and im not even 30 yet, the only person who really gives a shit about your hair is you. If that doesn't make you feel better - you can always get xHomerx10 to make you a hat

 It's as though you read my mind.

 

Avatar-sized

 
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:03:55 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.
gentlemand
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2590
Merit: 3008


Welt Am Draht


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:06:44 AM
Merited by Majormax (1)

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

They're used to paper.  Everything they do is built around it. The futures are provided by names they trust, unlike the physical options. Like most people here they're only after more dollars but at least they're happy to admit it.

They'll have to be dragged into thinking physical is to their benefit. It's alien to how they operate.

There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
bitserve
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806
Merit: 1454


Self made HODLER ✓


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:10:07 AM

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).
The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?

As I see it they only care about ROI, that's why derivatives are so incredibly popular. The last thing most fund managers would want is additional overhead/liabilities like dealing with custody, etc...

d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:11:57 AM

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

Like most people here they're only after more dollars
So all it boils down to is adoption? Meaning they're after what is perceived as "real" money.

Quote
There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.
Right, I see. Adoption at least at the financial level.

EDIT
Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?
OK OK I got it  Undecided
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 3668
Merit: 10066


Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:13:55 AM

An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.


Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.
Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?

My sense, regarding shorting, has been that the cascading effect of forcing longs to close remains greater because it causes those longs to have to sell BTC into an already falling market.

The forcing of shorts to close, on the other hand, causes the same selling of BTC however, that selling is happening into a price rising market, which dampens the market momentum rather than exacerbating it.
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:18:50 AM

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.

Done
gembitz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 639


*Brute force will solve any Bitcoin problem*


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:19:04 AM



 Cool


weeeeeee
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:19:37 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debit cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.
gembitz
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1834
Merit: 639


*Brute force will solve any Bitcoin problem*


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:22:09 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

darkweb? lol Smiley =drugs , guns & illegal gambling ?
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:23:04 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

darkweb? lol Smiley =drugs , guns & illegal gambling ?
I was thinking more like Amazon. Choo.
bitserve
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1806
Merit: 1454


Self made HODLER ✓


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:24:35 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1414
Merit: 2174


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:24:43 AM

There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it.  
d_eddie
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2450
Merit: 2843



View Profile
December 13, 2018, 02:26:41 AM

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.
Interested. Care to elaborate?
Pages: « 1 ... 21865 21866 21867 21868 21869 21870 21871 21872 21873 21874 21875 21876 21877 21878 21879 21880 21881 21882 21883 21884 21885 21886 21887 21888 21889 21890 21891 21892 21893 21894 21895 21896 21897 21898 21899 21900 21901 21902 21903 21904 21905 21906 21907 21908 21909 21910 21911 21912 21913 21914 [21915] 21916 21917 21918 21919 21920 21921 21922 21923 21924 21925 21926 21927 21928 21929 21930 21931 21932 21933 21934 21935 21936 21937 21938 21939 21940 21941 21942 21943 21944 21945 21946 21947 21948 21949 21950 21951 21952 21953 21954 21955 21956 21957 21958 21959 21960 21961 21962 21963 21964 21965 ... 33206 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!