Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitserve]

^ Anyways it would be a short term W if anything. The reality is that no one knows if the price is going to try to break $3000, or bounce to $5000 or both things in sequential order.... No fucking one!

Surely, you are stating the obvious when asserting that no one knows, but there are also people with plans, and there are people with better ideas than others about their plans and how much they believe they can either pump or dump or to strategically play their FUD.  That's we are here to discuss, no?  Attempt to share our ideas and evidence about what we think happened, is happening and is going to happen.

TLDR: no one "fucking" knows  = overstatement of the year (day)(hour)  

No. That would be just speculation.

When in doubt, stand your ground.

Fair enough.   

I don't have noodles in my ass.

[d_eddie]

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go.  

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.

There goes my last sMerit.

[d_eddie]

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.

[xhomerx10]

What's the rationale behind the Bitcorn halving by the way? Why not some sort of continuous curve that converges to zero?

To give us a wee thrill to look forward to every few years?

Perhaps Satoshi was a shameless showman after all. Everyone loves a cliffhanger.

I'd rather be poor and have a full head of hair than be rich and bald

At the age of 43 or whatever I am mine's just starting to fray.

I wouldn't mind at all if it was turning into a widow's peak, that's a good look, but mine's only going directly in the centre of the forehead which looks fucking awful so I'm going to wind up looking like the victim of a driveby lobotomy.

Weird how just a few square cm on one portion of your skull turns you from someone normal-looking to a drooling goon.

Had to shave my head for years and im not even 30 yet, the only person who really gives a shit about your hair is you. If that doesn't make you feel better - you can always get xHomerx10 to make you a hat

 It's as though you read my mind.

 

Avatar-sized

 

[d_eddie]

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

[gentlemand]

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

They're used to paper.  Everything they do is built around it. The futures are provided by names they trust, unlike the physical options. Like most people here they're only after more dollars but at least they're happy to admit it.

They'll have to be dragged into thinking physical is to their benefit. It's alien to how they operate.

There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.

[bitserve]

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?

As I see it they only care about ROI, that's why derivatives are so incredibly popular. The last thing most fund managers would want is additional overhead/liabilities like dealing with custody, etc...

[d_eddie]

The way I see it, a retail investor or institutional money would likely choose the real thing (settled in kind) over paper stuff that eventually goes bust. Ease of physical delivery is the winning property.

Sadly as it stands I think it's the opposite.

Like most people here they're only after more dollars

So all it boils down to is adoption? Meaning they're after what is perceived as "real" money.

There would need to be an army of non traditional finance believers and players to take command of the price via physical options for them to pay attention.

Right, I see. Adoption at least at the financial level.

EDIT

Hmmm, not so sure about that... Why would they?

OK OK I got it 

[JayJuanGee]

An attempt at an alternative explanation, with a final question of my own.

Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them,

aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price.  

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.

Indeed, we know the actual volume of futures is small if compared to the underlying (actual btc) market. However, sometimes you only have to nudge things a bit to make them move. Besides, there is leverage, which can make money use more effective.

If you always want to push the same way (for example: down), you will eventually need to recharge; but not as much as the whole market moved (the whole Archimedean buoyant force, so to say) - just a fraction. And you can do it OTC - disturbing the market as little as possible, and deferring/spreading the effect.

One thing I don't understand and I hope someone can help me with: why the asymmetry between shorting and longing? If money on one side (short) implies the same sum is on the other (long), intuition tells me the situation should be symmetrical. Intuition can be wrong, though. So why is it said that whales prefer shorting. Is it easier? Does it pay out better, or what is it?

My sense, regarding shorting, has been that the cascading effect of forcing longs to close remains greater because it causes those longs to have to sell BTC into an already falling market.

The forcing of shorts to close, on the other hand, causes the same selling of BTC however, that selling is happening into a price rising market, which dampens the market momentum rather than exacerbating it.

[HairyMaclairy]

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

(snip)

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

The question also deserves a (WO)sMerit.

Done

[gembitz]

 


weeeeeee

[d_eddie]

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debit cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

[gembitz]

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

darkweb? lol =drugs , guns & illegal gambling ?

[d_eddie]

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

darkweb? lol =drugs , guns & illegal gambling ?

I was thinking more like Amazon. Choo.

[bitserve]

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.

[HairyMaclairy]

There is an excellent article which I read which explains why odds are stacked against shorts in the long run.  Shorting is always a short term play.  I am going to try to find it.  

[d_eddie]

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.

Interested. Care to elaborate?

[gentlemand]

I was thinking more like Amazon. Choo.

Retail's a dead end. If it is ever to be a major thing it'll be the last thing to happen, not the driver of anything.

No one buys something to buy something. It's superb for merchants, fast settlement, no chargebacks, very unappetising for buyers who aren't already balls deep. Merchants couldn't afford the discounts necessary to move enough people. To spend it people need to already be in for other reasons.

Savings, independence, neutrality, portability. That's the type of thing that inspires people to get involved.

[xhomerx10]

Truth as life itself.

when low

8K: "Will buy at $6K"
$6K: "Will buy at $3K"
$3K: "Will buy at $1.5K"

when up

$6K: "Will buy at $3K"
$8K: "Will buy at $6K"
$14K: "Will buy at $8K"
$20K: "Will buy at $14K"
 

This is so true LOL!!!

 When moon



avatar-sized

[bitserve]

For adoption we need either forward-looking merchants or a solid entry into the payment card business. Debt cards seem easier to me, but the most recent events aren't nice at all. As for Shift, it's tied to Coinbase and, at least for the time being, US only. No cigar yet.

That's a complex issue. Debit cards are for sure something WE want, for many reasons... But I don't think that's the right path towards ADOPTION.

Interested. Care to elaborate?

We want them because we are currently storing value on BTC. So it is natural we want more ways to spend it. Debit cards are convenient of course. But why someone that doesn't have Bitcoin in first instance would want to have it for the only reason that they could spend it using debit cards? It makes no sense when they can already use cards with their FIAT.

So, the reasons for making people adopt Bitcoin as a store of value or as a payment must be elsewhere not in something they already have.