Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jl2012]

but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.   

If there were no Gox, we would have Box, Cox, Fox, whatever to make bitcoin to be at what it is at today

[HairyMaclairy]

If you listen to the grumpy old timers around here they have seen it all before and will tell you that Gox will still be around in 2016 and Gox will fix its withdrawal problems soon and you whippersnappers don't know what you are talking about. 

[zerk89]

Bitcoin miners are at the point now if they just got their machines within the past month that they won't even see a ROI. That means they are going to start hoarding everything from this point onwards as it is not mathematically possible to see a ROI, it makes no sense to sell the coins as they will be selling at an inevitable loss. By the end of march there will be artificial scarcity on the markets due to the miners hoarding from now until then. At precisely this time we will see the a price hike of at least 2x current prices. That will spur the next wave of morons who will buy all the latest 3TH+ miners coming out 2nd QTR 2014. It is funny how the mining manufacturers time this perfectly, out of sheer luck or as a byproduct of their own self-mining greed. The process will repeat in this ever expanding pyramid. Incoming 16yo robots for the generic regurgiation of bullshit, with their 1 way linear thought patterns and toddler problem solving skills. It doesn't take a genius to understand how the market works. All of you are in denial. Lots of retards with fancy graphs that don't apply to this pyramid.

Its not like its causal miners spending money to buy dedicated hardware to mine bitcoins. These people already probably have mined bitcoins before and will mine at a lost for months and years. I am pretty sure at the current difficulty level most of the people mining are not the ones selling on the exchanges right now... probably holders. The price to mining difficult argument does not work too well for bitcoins.  

Exactly and when all the bagholders from a previous time peroid have offloaded all their BTC (since they are happy with the current prices) then the supply goes down, as current miners are already hoarding, then the huge price spike occurs. Which is why you see months and months of relatively stable prices before the rockets take off too the moon, proof: seen time and time again.

Bitcoin miners are at the point now if they just got their machines within the past month that they won't even see a ROI. That means they are going to start hoarding everything from this point onwards as it is not mathematically possible to see a ROI, it makes no sense to sell the coins as they will be selling at an inevitable loss. By the end of march there will be artificial scarcity on the markets due to the miners hoarding from now until then. At precisely this time we will see the a price hike of at least 2x current prices. That will spur the next wave of morons who will buy all the latest 3TH+ miners coming out 2nd QTR 2014. It is funny how the mining manufacturers time this perfectly, out of sheer luck or as a byproduct of their own self-mining greed. The process will repeat in this ever expanding pyramid. Incoming 16yo robots for the generic regurgiation of bullshit, with their 1 way linear thought patterns and toddler problem solving skills. It doesn't take a genius to understand how the market works. All of you are in denial. Lots of retards with fancy graphs that don't apply to this pyramid.

Why are you here ?

I'm here to cash in like the rest of you, it's still early, haw haw haw.

[mmitech]

but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.   

If there were no Gox, we would have Box, Cox, Fox, whatever to make bitcoin to be at what it is at today

But we didn't and you could have Box, Cox or Fox even when Gox existed but you didn't and this is what I meant

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[mestar]

Bitcoin miners are at the point now if they just got their machines within the past month that they won't even see a ROI.

I see you are assuming that difficulty will grow forever.  Nothing growing exponentially can grow forever, or even for a long period of time.

If we assume $15 to $100 in electricity costs per Bitcoin, and if difficulty doubles each month, we are talking 3 to 7 months until the difficulty stops going up.

And when it stops (and stop it must), all the miners that still didn't shut off will be making some money, and that means there is a period (perhaps a couple of years?) where they do make what they invested in their mining hardware.

In other words, there will always be some miners that are making money.

Off course, this all supposes that the price will be stable.  If it goes up or crashes, it will just slow down or speed up this process.


Also, when difficulty stops growing, it will mean that at least some miners are at 90% cost to price ratio, and those will have to sell their BTC to cover their monthly running costs.  Thus we can expect a steady 1000-2000 of BTC daily to hit the exchanges, and this amount of dollars will be needed just to keep the price at the same level, otherwise it will go down.  Perhaps this is already the reason why we see this inability of BTC price to grow these days?

[mestar]

then the supply goes down, as current miners are already hoarding, then the huge price spike occurs.

If you divide bitcoiners into roughly two groups, miners and speculators, miners are much less likely to hoard.  This is simply because they have running costs, which they must pay each month, while speculators do not have that costs.

Probably the reason you don't see much hodl posts in the mining sections.

[aminorex]

miners are much less likely to hoard.  This is simply because they have running costs

Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding.   I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs.  They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins.  Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.

[HairyMaclairy]

Electricity isn't so relevant anymore with ASICs. It the capital cost.

[600watt]

miners are much less likely to hoard.  This is simply because they have running costs

Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding.   I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs.  They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins.  Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.

+1
in some countries mined bitcoins are free of tax. that means saving 25 % on capital gains. 

[mestar]

Electricity isn't so relevant anymore with ASICs. It the capital cost.

Electricity is always relevant.

Difficulty is growing, doubling each month.  If now you have 1% cost in electricity to price, that means that in 7 months you have 100% (actually more, but irrelevant) cost to price ration.   Long term, electricity always counts.

Why do people think that electricity doesn't matter?  Because of the preordering business.  Basically using money from preorders for R&D costs, and slow deliveries meaning the difficulty did not go up as fast as it could.

Funny stuff, money printing machines hardware business.

[mestar]

miners are much less likely to hoard.  This is simply because they have running costs

Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding.   I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs.  They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins.  Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.

So, what you are saying is that miners are hodlers, too?  Sure, some are. But you think that this guy http://hongwrong.com/hong-kong-bitcoin/ is not selling some of his BTC each month to cover costs?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[wilfried]

miners are much less likely to hoard.  This is simply because they have running costs

Most miners today bought equipment when everyone was telling them it would never ROI, and they would be better off buying and holding.   I don't think they need to sell bitcoins to cover costs.  They spend fiat to make bitcoins because they despise fiat and like bitcoins.  Spending fiat on power bills is just one more way to burn the fiat.

So, what you are saying is that miners are hodlers, too?  Sure, some are. But you think that this guy http://hongwrong.com/hong-kong-bitcoin/ is not selling some of his BTC each month to cover costs?

i think this guy took some pictures of something and made a nice hoax

[oda.krell]

Holy cow gox under 1000 volume.

Unfortunately Gox is dying slowly, First the drama in April with their trading engine lag, then the Fiat withdrawal problems and now the BTC withdrawal problems.

Gox has been the leader, a year and half ago they held more than 80% of the trading volume, now they lost more than 80% of their volume and I am afraid that they will have to fix all their problems ASAP or they will have 0 volume and then they will have just to shutdown.

but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.   

Yesterday's volume at Gox of 1458 btc was the lowest since they started in 2010 (except the week they were closed in 2011).

(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat

(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.

(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.

(4) But: It will be *so* worth it

[podyx]

Holy cow gox under 1000 volume.

Unfortunately Gox is dying slowly, First the drama in April with their trading engine lag, then the Fiat withdrawal problems and now the BTC withdrawal problems.

Gox has been the leader, a year and half ago they held more than 80% of the trading volume, now they lost more than 80% of their volume and I am afraid that they will have to fix all their problems ASAP or they will have 0 volume and then they will have just to shutdown.

but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.   

Yesterday's volume at Gox of 1458 btc was the lowest since they started in 2010 (except the week they were closed in 2011).

(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat

(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.

(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.

(4) But: It will be *so* worth it

did anybody say cheap coins??? 

[mmitech]

Holy cow gox under 1000 volume.

Unfortunately Gox is dying slowly, First the drama in April with their trading engine lag, then the Fiat withdrawal problems and now the BTC withdrawal problems.

Gox has been the leader, a year and half ago they held more than 80% of the trading volume, now they lost more than 80% of their volume and I am afraid that they will have to fix all their problems ASAP or they will have 0 volume and then they will have just to shutdown.

but to be honest, if it weren't to Gox, Bitcoin wouldn't be at what it is at today.   

Yesterday's volume at Gox of 1458 btc was the lowest since they started in 2010 (except the week they were closed in 2011).

(1) gox has been declared dead before, and it always came back so far, like a fucking zombie, so with that in mind I'll express point (2) below with a caveat

(2) for the first time it looks to me like gox might *actually*, *really* go down in flames this time. not today, not tomorrow, but drastically lower volume plus mounting withdrawal problems mean that 2014 might (IMO) see gox go bust.

(3) which, despite what people like to tell themselves about "it already being priced in", would be ugly for price. Think "fbi silk road seizure" ugly, at least short term.

(4) But: It will be *so* worth it

did anybody say cheap coins??? 

I want to learn how to determine the Price of Bitcoin being cheap or expensive, it is confusing to me, I thought demand and supply and the order book depth and the gap between bids and asks determine it but I always learn new stuff, in other words $500 is cheap only when the price on exchanges is 800 and you get an offer for 500

[HairyMaclairy]

Ok let's speculate.  How low could we go on a Gox collapse?

[nanobrain]

Ok let's speculate.  How low could we go on a Gox collapse?

Referencing Oda's earlier point about the SR bust...let's remember that before it happened the sage PoV was that it would massively impact the market.  The reality, after it happened, was the price was back on track in under a week. 

The market(s) may actually respond positively to la vie sans Gox.

[tonyq]

Nothing would please me more than to see GOX crash and burn.
I sold 4 BTC at around £500 a while back and then spent 2 months trying to get the money into my bank account here in England. It was a nightmare and in the end I asked them to return the cash to my account and I then stupidly bought just over 3 BTC at £650 each thereby losing almost a whole coin.
They are worse than useless.