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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
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100% - 10 (8.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21785915 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
Last of the V8s
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January 15, 2019, 12:53:37 PM

sooo, 'connected' in the sense that anything to do with etc and its forks is utter garbage run by incompetent wallies including all the attendant services
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January 15, 2019, 12:56:00 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), infofront (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Bitcoin Technical Analysis 15/01/19: Sharp Rise Indicates Near Term Reversal

Hey guys, here's my analysis.

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January 15, 2019, 12:57:39 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.


I'll have to disagree on that one Bob. Crypto doesn't follow this kind of logic imo.

ETH - as shitcoin is it might be - it is still a player.
Even the shitiest of them all - EOS or XRP are also players.

It's fine being bearish about them, but they are not going to disappear into thin air.
Should ETH fall at half of its current price, it would make it a hell of a buy party. Green dildo style.


Bitcoin will continue to prevail but we aren’t going to get rid of these parasites sadly.

Here we can't get rid of r0ach...


How come the narrative is switching from "Cryptopia hacked" to "Ethereum hacked"?

Is there substantial evidence that the Cryptopia hack was not about hacking into Cryptopia computers but a hack of the ETH network itself?

Well not yet, but Nanopool??
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January 15, 2019, 01:00:03 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 01:17:31 PM by kurious

One point of clarification - I was referring to 14 January in 2015 being the bottom for the prior crypto winter, so if we follow the template we have passed the point of most danger for this year.

But yes agree that if the template holds then $3122 was the bottom for 2018 - 19 crypto winter.  Which I am very pleased I bought - if only a little bit because god it felt like shit at the time.

The theory here is that we are slightly front running our previous cryptowinter, so I think we are closely aligned in our analysis.  

Do we dare call a bottom to this cryptowinter? Let’s see what next week brings.

But I think we can start establishing a tentative hypothesis that the 2018/19 winter bottomed at $3122.   We still have at least 6 months of sideways chop ahead of us.  We can still retest the 200 weekly MA as it is rising all the time without breaking $3122 so long as we only test it lightly.    200 Weekly MA is now at $3250 so that support line is gently rising.  

Oops - my bad, apologies Hairy.  Was not fully concentrating as I am not alone with my screen today.

Yes, it was the low of '15 and the end of the bear cycle, too.

A couple of weeks back Danndann of this parish kindly pointed me to a post I made back then. I rarely predict, it is usually stupid to try:

Buy or die.

Have been.

Admittedly my investment is under water as a whole (I never bought at under $45, too late in for that) but buying at these price has averaged down massively.  

I am happy, I believe capitulation has happened, bar some settling fluctuations, I personally think on balance the downtrend is over.

That was 24 hours before the final dip.  

Anyway.... I agree we may end up with egg on our faces, but I reckon it's a fair call and the balance of probability suggests it's looking likely the bottom is in - a little earlier for the overlay, yes - but for me it makes sense to see the mid-Jan (12th-14th) price as the Rubicon we had to cross, due to its history as the annual low in past years - except after blow off tops.

And following logically from that, if this normal 'annual low point' was higher than the Dec low, I reckon it does offer credence to thinking the bottom is behind us.  

Here's hopin'
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 01:01:29 PM

I was very crazy not so long ago. I have changed a lot too. Life is much easier this way.

Well, yes.

I thought about some of these dynamics too.

Many years ago, when I was 18, and just barely leaving my parent's house, I did not own many assets, and by the time I acquired some education and life experiences, it took me well more than 10 to 15 years to rise out of the negative networth territory.

There are probably other factors, as well, that contribute to willingness to take risks, but I do understand that building wealth takes time, and having a larger stake in the system will cause incentives for less risk taking - especially when facing someone (on the street or otherwise) who appears to NOT have anything to lose by getting in a confrontation (even life or death). 

Of course, previously, we have had this conversation youth or wealth, and it is not like we have any kind of choice to be able to make ourselves more youthful, so there remains some satisfaction to have more wealth - even though I did not really seek wealth in my life pursuits, it has been nice that my life choices still arrived at some semblance of such, including what is currently (remains of) my bitcoin investment.

ive been told i am just as crazy risking my life for fun now as i was in my youth. so ive been told by multiple people. the only thing that tempers me from doing it as much is i need to stay alive for my wife.

but still the urge is still there, and very strong. the risks are not vs people, ie putting myself in combat zones, riots or whatever. they are "hold muh beer" types of thing, usually involving machinery that can be forced to do things it was not manufactured to do. the brain starts thinking "i can make that" and i really really have to hold back.

but the grin factor and the rush of still being alive afterwards.. oh man
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yes


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January 15, 2019, 01:04:24 PM

ETH (and, soon, EOS/TELOS) is a good 'token factory' platform and for that, it may have a continued reason to exist. The idea of executing computer code in a decentralised manner wont go away. I think not all corners of the playing field have been found yet. I doubt we have seen the last of it, although the ICO rage was spectacular including it's demise (for now).

For anonymous projects, the ICO vehicle will remain to hold its application value (continuing to 'break the rules' in the meantime) as well as for applications that require a token for their operation on a generally recognized and 'stable' platform.

As such, I am not in the Hate CampTM when it comes to crypto projects beside Bitcoin.
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January 15, 2019, 01:10:57 PM

As such, I am not in the Hate CampTM when it comes to crypto projects beside Bitcoin.

Oh God no, if there is profit to be made. Just have to be aware. Aware that,

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 01:15:56 PM

yup it is. i own 13 acres, all woods. my firing range has a nice hill for a backstop. outside of that i wont fire unless i absolutely have identified the target and i consider it an immediate threat. although i have fired into the air when the occasional wild dog or such shows too much interest in me or the wife.

all in all its mainly a lot of practice rounds to keep my skills honed.
Firing in the air always bothered me. It has to come down, possibly on top of someone. Why not fire into the ground?

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.

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January 15, 2019, 01:26:34 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Nah.

I'd say ETH is BTC-like right now.

BTC can't die because that's the entry gate to any crypto related project. For BTC to die it means all altcoins must die first.

ETH can't die because it's the baseground of all the shitcoin ICO projects. And there is too much potential (appart from all the stormshit) for it to die.

You have few coins that have any use, BTC and ETH are some of them.
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January 15, 2019, 01:30:13 PM

yup it is. i own 13 acres, all woods. my firing range has a nice hill for a backstop. outside of that i wont fire unless i absolutely have identified the target and i consider it an immediate threat. although i have fired into the air when the occasional wild dog or such shows too much interest in me or the wife.

all in all its mainly a lot of practice rounds to keep my skills honed.
Firing in the air always bothered me. It has to come down, possibly on top of someone. Why not fire into the ground?

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.



A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.
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January 15, 2019, 01:31:06 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.
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January 15, 2019, 01:32:31 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Nah.

I'd say ETH is BTC-like right now.

BTC can't die because that's the entry gate to any crypto related project. For BTC to die it means all altcoins must die first.

ETH can't die because it's the baseground of all the shitcoin ICO projects. And there is too much potential (appart from all the stormshit) for it to die.

You have few coins that have any use, BTC and ETH are some of them.

So first all ICO crap dies followed by ETH. How is that impossible?
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 01:41:17 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Bought more at key confidence building points, when it seemed to me that chance of survival, or even success, increased. For example, the non-collapse after the SR takedown and crucially for me, when the US decided to auction seized coins. This is rarely mentioned, but I think those auctions were a huge 'mistake' by TPTB. From their pov, they should have destroyed the coins - instead they literally legitimised BTC.

yeah once the silk road stack was auctioned by the government that was a big turning point. the government destroys seized evidence it considers illegal ie look at all the drugs destroyed by burning etc. by auctioning it i knew it was legit then.

dunno about you but back in the day when btc was a few bucks i threw it around like popcorn. just testing various wallets on different computers and to and from exchanges just to see how it worked. ive lost some coins by mistakes, some by forgetting about them. it was never a large percentage of course, but the amount ive lost would be worth a good amount today. but that was very early on when it was unknown if it would even survive.

if i had known what it would eventually be valued at i would of course been more careful, as i am now. back then in my wildest dreams i would never even of though it would hit 20k a coin. and i would of just laughed at anyone that said that. back in 2011-2012? pffft. coins were just things to play with.

EDIT: i mined my coins starting in 2011, didnt buy them. might be a reason i didnt value them much as i didnt pay money for them. just a byproduct of my gpus.
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January 15, 2019, 01:54:37 PM

I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

https://twitter.com/gissisim/status/1069343819081105408?lang=en

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January 15, 2019, 01:57:31 PM

Cryptopia's the first exchange of 2019 to get hacked.

https://twitter.com/Cryptopia_NZ/status/1085084168852291586


This is why I never keep any money on exchanges, thanks Wall Observer for pointing this out time and time again!

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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 02:02:41 PM

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

air resistance will be the limiting factor. i am unsure of the actual speed, depends on the bullet weight and size. i do know people who have been hit by falling birdshot (myself included, i do a lot of skeet shooting) and its nothing. but those pellets are smaller.

those kalashnikovs fire a heavy bullet. but were they indeed fire straight up? ive seen most fired maybe 30-40 degrees from vertical but thats just what i see on the news. not doubting you but all it takes is a slightly more horizontal trajectory and it will still have a lot of energy when the bullet hits the ground, as it wouldnt of expended its initial energy gaining altitude.
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January 15, 2019, 02:07:40 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

So first all ICO crap dies followed by ETH. How is that impossible?

ICO are far too good as a concept to die.

That most of them are pure shit is irrelevant.

In theory they're so good as a concept that everytime one falls down, 2 others will rise.
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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January 15, 2019, 02:09:13 PM


lol yup you can tell hes had extensive weapons training. i wonder what was downrange while he was firing at that 45 degree angle..
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January 15, 2019, 02:15:45 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

firing into the ground can ricochet or create a spray of spall depending on what it hits. not good when its near you.

when firing into the air, when it comes down its just at normal falling speed as its expended all its energy on the way up. wont hurt anymore than a pebble of equivalent weight falling on you. also the direction i fire in is literally square miles of woods. no houses at all. so i fire maybe 10 degree from vertical in that direction.

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago. I've seen news articles too of (unintended) casualties from kalashnikovs being fired straight into the air in celebration in the middle east.

air resistance will be the limiting factor. i am unsure of the actual speed, depends on the bullet weight and size. i do know people who have been hit by falling birdshot (myself included, i do a lot of skeet shooting) and its nothing. but those pellets are smaller.

those kalashnikovs fire a heavy bullet. but were they indeed fire straight up? ive seen most fired maybe 30-40 degrees from vertical but thats just what i see on the news. not doubting you but all it takes is a slightly more horizontal trajectory and it will still have a lot of energy when the bullet hits the ground, as it wouldnt of expended its initial energy gaining altitude.

It seems you are right to feel some caution:

https://science.howstuffworks.com/fire--bullet-straight-up-how-high-does-it-go.htm

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January 15, 2019, 02:33:28 PM

How can you say this Huh



Source:

https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1085115366508883968
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