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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2019 - 16 (10.3%)
H1 2020 - 29 (18.6%)
H2 2020 - 28 (17.9%)
H1 2021 - 12 (7.7%)
H2 2021 - 31 (19.9%)
H1 2022 - 6 (3.8%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.6%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (1.9%)
2024 or Later - 15 (9.6%)
Total Voters: 156

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21290493 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
StartupAnalyst
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February 15, 2019, 06:14:50 PM

You can post your desired pics here for community voting, I guess that will help for you too.

I am still too far for a hat but I always dream I will wear that someday too here.

Gentlemen, what do you think which of these pictures would look better on a hat?

№1                                                                                                                                             

№2

№3



1st one but he needs to have a gun!
What about this picture?
Some PGP public keys you should import: theymos, Wladimir, Gregory, Pieter
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JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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February 15, 2019, 06:22:08 PM

I am almost there to my 5btc aim. Next stop is 10btc but I don't think I will be able to get there in a reasonable timeframe before the next bull run.

I showed you my 1 year btc buys before and this is my whole history:


(never sold a satoshi since 2016)

I hope the accumulation phase lasts at least 2 years this time.

I mean I can buy 30 btc right away but no. I'll dollar cost average the shit out of it.

You certainly are over-cautious in buying BTC. If you went all in 2016, by the end of 2017 you could had been a multi millionaire. I started buying at the end of 2016 although I watched the price since 2015. Back in 2015 I didn't know much about BTC, I didn't think of buying at all. I just started mining ETH with gpu rigs. I sold all for BTC before the big ETH rise to 450$ unfortunately. I made a lot of mistakes until mid 2017 when I went all in with my savings. I could had over 40 BTC if I wasn't shaken by China's bans and the forks. However, these first negative experiences made me firm to hodl and I endured all crashes since the Sep 2017 until now. I learned to appreciate BTC more than the gold or fiat. Playing with my precious BTC's in a daily trade is a no go! My "successful" trades in 2017 led to the missed opportunity 3x since 1000 to 3000$. Now I even used 3/4 of my credit card limits and I am converting all my salary into BTC. For me the best strategy is to hodl until I get at least $1-2mil (hopefully 4-5). My first goal is to reach 20BTC not by trade but by buying only. Whether the price will stay here or go up is of no importance to me, since I can buy directly or mine 1.5-2BTC per year. I am not happy with my current stash, which is only 16BTC, but by the end of 2020 I should be able to reach the 20BTC goal. I am still working on a plan what to spend and for what. On top of my list is a first line beach villa, then a new car, travelling around the world, and charity for homeless and sick children. A 100x from now should be enough for that  Grin Yes, it is close to the gold market cap, but if the gold went there without average Joe, mainly institutions, why not BTC go there with mass adoption and a little inst. investors? It is quite possible in the coming years and guaranteed for a longer period of time!

I agree with your possible initial criticism of mindrust's approach in that there is some decent likelihood of payoff with an aggressive BTC approach, especially during the BTC accumulation stage.

Hopefully, your level of aggressiveness, ivomm, does not involve too much gambling - and hopefully you have all your basic expenses covered, in the event your scenario projections don't play out in anywhere near expected.  In other words, BTC can still be a very good investment, even if it only goes up, on average 10% per year, because there is also the possibility of the 100x that may or may not happen...
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February 15, 2019, 06:23:41 PM
Merited by Pamoldar (7), xhomerx10 (2)


Would you be honest enough to criticize Craig, if you knew he was wrong?

Sure. He's already made a lot of bone headed statements already. No, I'm not going to enumerate them.

Let's do some of them anyway

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Craig_Wright

    Wright's claimed PGP key was provably backdated. [1][2]
    He was paid millions of dollars by nTrust to 'reveal' himself as Satoshi (this is for those who think he lacked motive)[3]
    Signature claimed to prove him to be Satoshi was worthless. [4]
    Second claimed "signature" was also an obvious forgery. [5]
    N-th claimed "signature" was yet another obvious forgery. [6]
    Faked blog posts showing his early involvement in bitcoin. [7]
    Craig Wright is apparently using his fame to run an advance-fee scam.[8]
    Incorrectly calling it "Bit Coin" several times in 2011. [9]
    Gross technical incompetence. [10][11][12]
    No evidence of any C++ proficiency.
    Plagiarizism[13]
    If Craig Wright really was the creator of Bitcoin, the proof would be trivial. We see an example by Charlie Lee the creator of Litecoin[14]
Last of the V8s
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February 15, 2019, 06:25:36 PM

not sure what "Plagiarizism" is but it sounds wrong on both sides of the Atlantic
StartupAnalyst
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February 15, 2019, 06:28:35 PM

VB1001
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February 15, 2019, 06:29:29 PM

Coinbase Users Can Now Withdraw BSV to External Wallets

Coinbase noted in today’s announcement that it still does not offer services for buying or selling BSV on its platforms.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/coinbase-users-can-now-withdraw-bsv-to-external-wallets
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February 15, 2019, 06:33:31 PM

[edited out]

Your post made me buy another $100 worth of btc today. I am at 4.70 now. Wink

It is true that I am over cautious but I got my reasons. In 2015-2016 my business barely started to make money and everything I got was $25k. Now in hindsight it is easy to tell "You should have gone all in." but it is hard.

It is still hard for me to go all in right now. I don't know why.

I still feel like I have connections to FIAT. It is hard to leave everything behind and go full crypto. Takes courage.

You have to find what works for you, mindrust, and don't let peer pressure force you to do something that you are not ready to do.

It is possible that you need more tools.  I really don't believe in the "all in" approach, but I do believe in analyzing how much you are putting into bitcoin.  Risky, if bitcoin is your only investment, then likely you do have to keep more in fiat to balance that out.

Most traditional investors are recommending in the 1% to 10% into bitcoin versus other kinds of investments, and of course, if you are going on the more risky side of that, you may end up putting way higher amounts into bitcoin and not having other traditional investments, which seems to be gambling too much for me.. but hey, I built my traditional investments before diversifying into bitcoin...

I understand that if you are not starting out with much if any traditional investments, you might be more willing to put a higher percentage into bitcoin and even more leery of possible returns for more traditional investments.   
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February 15, 2019, 06:34:27 PM

Indonesia have finally recognized Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as commodities.

https://bitcoinist.com/indonesia-bitcoin-commodity-regulations/


Grayscale Q4 report finds institutional investors returning to ‘Bitcoin maximalism’

https://bitcoinist.com/grayscale-q4-bitcoin-max-institutions/


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February 15, 2019, 06:38:31 PM

Argentina Settles Export Deal With Paraguay Using Bitcoin: https://cointelegraph.com/news/argentina-settles-export-deal-with-paraguay-using-bitcoin

Quote
In a reported first for both countries, Paraguay has bought pesticides and fumigation products  worth $7,100 from Argentina, using cryptocurrency to settle the deal. The purchase was paid for in BTC and then converted into Argentine peso to settle accounts with the exporter of the agricultural chemicals.

Quote
Meanwhile in Paraguay, global blockchain tech firm and Bitcoin mining manufacturer Bitfury partnered with South Korean peer-to-peer knowledge commons research firm, Commons Foundation, to launch several mining facilities in the country.

Things are looking very good for Bitcoin.
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February 15, 2019, 06:44:26 PM

It is fine to own %5-10 gold but even if gold succeeds, I mean how much can it go? $5k? And if gold ever hits $5k,

I would say 5% on the high side.. You are giving way too much benefit of the doubt to gold.. perhaps 1% would be more prudent, especially like I already mentioned if you own BTC.

'The people' do not yet control monetary matters. I mean, they do, but they don't realize the power they (we) have. As such, central banks will determine the fate of gold for the foreseeable future.

What central banks can't control is the whirlwind that will be the inevitable result from the stupid policies adopted back in the 1910-1913 timeframe. All they will be able to do is react to the debt-fueled collapse of the world economic system.

But the world has endured monetary shocks in the past. And while painful, they don't necessarily portend armageddon. The... ::*ahem*:: honorable, learned, and wise leaders find a way to restart the party - usually at the expense of setting in motion yet another larger shock some years or decades into the future. Even in the central banking era, we've gotten through Bretton Woods, the Nixon gold shock, and other such events - each of which was a complete rearchitecting of the world's monetary system.

tl;dr: Worldwide monetary shock is coming; it won't be TEOTWAWKI; and central banks will guide us through to the other side.

Which is all just prefatory to saying that both mindrust's and JJG's number estimates are woefully low.

Central banks, by and large, own gold. Large stocks of gold. And those whose economies have advanced past their gold holdings are buying gold hand over fist. (There is a notable exception of Great Britain).

When the shit hits the fan, about the only tool the central banks have is a repricing of gold. Not by 4x, but by some double-digit multiple. I followed the figures at one time -- Rickards has a handle on the precise number -- but it's a damned sight higher than 4x.

If the monetary collapse happens within the next decade (a fair possibility), there is no way in hell the response will be Bitcoin. Ain't gonna happen. Those currently in power will not cede it to a ragtag bunch of innernet nerds. Sure - if the people writ large rise up and force the issue, it could happen. But they wont.

So no. Chance of gold being massively increased in value is a damn sight higher than 5%, and the increment in such an event will be a damn sight higher than 4x.

Now I'm not saying Bitcoin will be a lagging investment in comparison. Nay, even with the scenario outlined above, I expect Bitcoin to handily outperform PMs. But in discussing alt assets, let's at least be real.


Just in regards to your last statement, above.  I think that i am being real with a suggestion of a 5% ceiling on dinosaur PM investments.  BTC is likely to be a sufficient hedge, but of course, some of this depends on other investments that you have, too.. and how much you value mobility.  

Personally, at this time, I don't own any gold because i don't want to have to store the shit (and I don't want paper gold, either), but with my BTC profits I could buy some gold, if I were to want to, if later I transform into a belief that gold could possibly serve as a meaningful hedge..  

By the way, if you are geographically stable, and you are already used to buying gold, then maybe you are more inclined.  I have neither of those nor any desire to become more geographically stable or to learn about what is authentic gold, at this time.  Bitcoin is much more practical in that regards - portable, divisible, verifiable, and 24/7 ability to play around with it without 3rd parties getting in the way.   Tongue Tongue
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February 15, 2019, 06:48:12 PM
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[edited out]

Your post made me buy another $100 worth of btc today. I am at 4.70 now. Wink

It is true that I am over cautious but I got my reasons. In 2015-2016 my business barely started to make money and everything I got was $25k. Now in hindsight it is easy to tell "You should have gone all in." but it is hard.

It is still hard for me to go all in right now. I don't know why.

I still feel like I have connections to FIAT. It is hard to leave everything behind and go full crypto. Takes courage.

You have to find what works for you, mindrust, and don't let peer pressure force you to do something that you are not ready to do.

It is possible that you need more tools.  I really don't believe in the "all in" approach, but I do believe in analyzing how much you are putting into bitcoin.  Risky, if bitcoin is your only investment, then likely you do have to keep more in fiat to balance that out.

Most traditional investors are recommending in the 1% to 10% into bitcoin versus other kinds of investments, and of course, if you are going on the more risky side of that, you may end up putting way higher amounts into bitcoin and not having other traditional investments, which seems to be gambling too much for me.. but hey, I built my traditional investments before diversifying into bitcoin...

I understand that if you are not starting out with much if any traditional investments, you might be more willing to put a higher percentage into bitcoin and even more leery of possible returns for more traditional investments.  

You got that right. BTC (16%) is my only serious investment.  %5 is in physical gold and the rest of the money sits in a bank account, collecting interest. I can't find any other instrument to invest in right now. Stocks are already overpriced and my whole networth which is $100k isnt really enough to make real estate investments.

In this not very bright picture my biggest chance is btc's expected moonwalk in 2021-2022.

If everything goes right, I'll probably end up with half a million dollars and it is probably enough for me.

Sometimes I am thinking of setting my goal to $1million but then I realize the danger I am in. Changing targets constantly is the most dangerous thing you can do. If you think a bit you'll (not just you but everybody who reads this post) understand.
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February 15, 2019, 06:50:28 PM

SEC Starts Review of NYSE Arca’s Bitcoin ETF Rule Change Proposal : https://cointelegraph.com/news/sec-starts-review-of-nyse-arcas-bitcoin-etf-rule-change-proposal



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February 15, 2019, 06:54:13 PM
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By Satoshi Nakamoto

Dedicated to all trolls.

After reading this ....
I will drink a beer. Cool
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February 15, 2019, 06:54:21 PM

Aren't patent trolls "losers," even if they make money? 

How so? There is a realistic debate to be had centering on the legitimacy of the concept of patents. But 'winners' and 'losers' are only identifiable as such within the context of the rules of the system. So, no: patent owners are by definition winners. At least to the extent to which others may want to employ the patented idea (i.e., even if they make money).

I think that I already explained my position. If you want to value winners based on their ability to get rich by any means, then you can do that.


By the way, didn't you get the memo, jbreher, that there is a certain level of justified hostility against the use of patents in the open source community underlying the "real" bitcoin..

And again with the complete mischaracterization of nChain's patents. They don't underly the "real" bitcoin (be it BSV, BTC, or BCH). They underly things that can interface with the "real" bitcoin (again, be it BSV, BTC, or BCH). Do you mischaracterize thusly because you are dishonest, or merely because you are ignorant?

By the way, didn't you get the memo, JJG, that 'hostility against' is meaningless in a decentralized, permissionless world?

hm?  Craig is one of the good guys, and he is not a fraudster.  I did not get that memo.

We are either going to believe the bullshit of craig wright or spend time researching into the extent to which shit that he proclaims is true.   Yeah, like I want to spend my time doing that.  For now, I will just be safe to consider him as an attack vector based on behaviors and actions that I have already seen from that nutjob.  I doubt it is a good use of time to try to figure out if there is some kind of possible validity in some of the things that he has done or is in the process of doing.  I will leave that to others, including you, if you want to go hang around with seeming fraudsters like that.
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February 15, 2019, 06:55:47 PM


By Satoshi Nakamoto

Dedicated to all trolls.

After reading this ....
I will drink a beer. Cool

Beste quote in the whole BTC history.....
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February 15, 2019, 06:59:08 PM


By Satoshi Nakamoto

Dedicated to all trolls.

After reading this ....
I will drink a beer. Cool

WAAY better to wear this shirt when talking to no-coiners. My current strategy of anger and violence is not paying off.
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February 15, 2019, 06:59:21 PM

The Virginia Police Department's pension fund is buying into Bitcoin.

https://www.ccn.com/fairfax-virginia-police-pension-why-bitcoin-crypto-bet?utm_source=vuukle&utm_medium=talk_of_town
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February 15, 2019, 07:00:46 PM
Last edit: February 15, 2019, 07:14:54 PM by VB1001



Edit:

Now if it is correct. Grin

A great phrase. Wink

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=532.msg6306#msg6306
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February 15, 2019, 07:12:41 PM
Merited by jojo69 (1)

I'm still lagging some 80 pages, although I do try to keep up whenever I can. I guess that's what you get when life calls.

However, I managed to buy ~1 coin over the past week. That's what matters most!  Grin
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February 15, 2019, 07:13:51 PM

So apparently Trump has declared a national emergency in order to fund the wall. He gets to define what a national emergency is, and forget the 5 billion for the wall, he went with 8 billion.

Top negotiator in teh white house.
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