Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Lambie Slayer]

nice ideas guys but start small please. first of all you need money for a party.

first question is: who is willing to pay with bitcoin for a party and how much. in 2013 it was 1 BTC and the money was locked. if you pay 0.1 BTC today it will be enough in 3 years for a 100k party. but again the money is locked. who is still on the list?

EDIT: maybe someone should start a DAO "100kparty".

In the proposal I laid out for Vegas no one but me would have to put up anything and even my out of pocket expense would be not a big deal for me at all.

The less people that show the more glory for the ones that do. Worst case scenario its me and 2 friends. I promise you we will have a lot of fun and fill everyone in on the good times.

ok sorry, I did not read it. but how then will you scale it? you should expect 100 to 500 people if the price will stay above 100k.

EDIT: 220 paid 1 BTC and the money was locked until the event was canceled.

+ + +  MORE THAN 220 RESERVATIONS  + + +

Interesting. Do you know why they canceled. If 220 people pay and nobody wants to party, then perhaps the whole concept is doomed but i feel like there must be some explanation for what happened.

The plan I had has a cap of 25 WO members with max 2 guest each. The way to scale it is other people can offer to host parties at other times in other cities since so many cant agree on US, Europe, or an island. The bigger the party, the more likely it is to fail imo. We must decentralize the parties

I think Id be lucky to get 25 WO members saying they want to come to the vegas party, and if we got more, no problem, we drop it down to 1 guest each with up to 50 WO members. Over 50 WO members and I agree this party falls apart from logistical complexities.

Taking 25 people to a restaurant in Vegas is easy even sitting at the same table. Taking 50 to a dinner is no problem, just will need multiple tables. Taking 75 to a nightclub is easier. Taking 75 to a strip club is easy also. All on short notice. Taking 25 to a brothel is easy and lets be real I doubt many will stick around for the brothel, but if we dont have enough whores we can always go family style on em. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5znpQLH8vE

If the worst thing that happens at our party is a whore shortage, then it will just add to the legend.  

[kurious]

EDIT: more than 220 paid 1 BTC and the money was locked until the event was canceled.

+ + +  MORE THAN 220 RESERVATIONS  + + +

Er....

we're doing a btc10k party, the XCP tokens already exist, just need to set it up

Why was the $1k party cancelled? Appeared to have quite a few reservations

yes it was cancelled. price went below 1k and people stopped paying their reservations. we wanted at least 100 tickets sold to have enough funds to get a decent set-up going. futhermore, the ticket set-up we used was designed by bits-of-proof. this company was sold to dtcc. we did not get 100 tickets sold = canceled.... 

220 'reserved', yes.  Less than 100 actually bought tickets.

[d_eddie]

I think an arbitrary price figure is the problem.  May never get there / may hit it only fleetingly / crash right after  /  does not happen for three years - who knows?

If it's paid in advance - say, 0.1 btc - the funds could be in escrow and they could be sold as soon as 100k are hit. So the budget would be safe. So fiat funding should be no issue. Same goes for plane tickets: where needed, each member planning to participate could keep a small (today) sum aside to cover for that. It will be worth ~10x at that time. Let's not forget that  

When I mentioned timing it within a set time from the Halvening, it seemed popular. No pressure, time to plan etc.  And it is sure it will happen, so it can be booked.

If you want a mad celebration for 100K - a spontaneous thing does seem to make sense.  

I guess I was thinking of a WO celebration party (likely to be when we've already done very nicely financially) but not really about price, so much as a party for the WO 'anyway' - and it could even turn into a regular thing.  Anyone could organise a hookers and blow event to coincide with it, why not?  At least we'd all know when the party was and that it would actually happen if enough people wanted to go.

Time needed to organise a successful large event and actually attract enough people to make it work well?  

Months. Less than 12, probably more than 6.

You make sense, kurious. A set date or a little advance notice are good: I think it's better to pursue the ONE party idea, at least tentatively. It would be a pity if, for instance, the Goose and the Bob couldn't meet there because of geography. Of course members can arrange aside meeting privately (the recent Madrid thing).

[Gyrsur]

I guess it was canceled because of economic reasons. if you calculate with a price of 1k per Bitcoin the price should stay above 1k if you have to pay the costs of the event afterwards. in fall 2013 it was a short spike above 1k and then the price collapsed again. I expect the same if the price will go above 100k because a lot of hodlers will then cash out.

EDIT: it's always about risk. if someone is willing (and "crazy" enough) to organise such an event big style he should earn a decent amount of money for the risks he is taking.

[Lambie Slayer]

U bring up good points.

Typically the longer someone has to think about something imo the more likely they are to back out. This is why corporate America works so hard to push impulse buying on everyone and why they say count to ten when you are angry.

I would have no problem doing this party with myself and my 2 guests if not one single Hat wants to come celebrate the new wealth.  

All it would cost me would be I pay for all the limo out of pocket which is fine, more leg room!

Can someone fill me in on what led to the downfall of the 1k party, I didnt start following the thread till a few months after 1k.

Also how much time would be necessary in your opinion to properly plan and not feel rushed. Are you talking 3 weeks, 2 months, maybe a little more detail on that would help me understand where you are coming from. I would think anything more than a few weeks after 100k and a lot of the thrill would be gone.

Last one before we're kicked off the thread:

I think an arbitrary price figure is the problem.  May never get there / may hit it only fleetingly / crash right after  /  does not happen for three years - who knows?

When I mentioned timing it within a set time from the Halvening, it seemed popular. No pressure, time to plan etc.  And it is sure it will happen, so it can be booked.

If you want a mad celebration for 100K - a spontaneous thing does seem to make sense.   

I guess I was thinking of a WO celebration party (likely to be when we've already done very nicely financially) but not really about price, so much as a party for the WO 'anyway' - and it could even turn into a regular thing.  Anyone could organise a hookers and blow event to coincide with it, why not?  At least we'd all know when the party was and that it would actually happen if enough people wanted to go.

Time needed to organise a successful large event and actually attract enough people to make it work well? 

Months. Less than 12, probably more than 6.

Interesting. I like this idea as well and think they would be compliments, not substitutes.  

Bc yes mad celebration is exactly what Im suggesting.

The 100k party is by far the biggest event talked about ever since I started following the thread in early 2014. It seems criminal to not attempt to honor it.

The WO Celebration party sounds great and also something that afaik was just breathed into life by you and worth pursuing, but not at the expense of the 100k legend for sure imo

[Lambie Slayer]

I guess it was canceled because of economic reasons. if you calculate with a price of 1k per Bitcoin the price should stay above 1k if you have to pay the costs of the event afterwards. in fall 2013 it was a short spike above 1k and then the price collapsed again. I expect the same if the price will go above 100k because a lot of hodlers will then cash out.

Ok Ty for that info. My proposal will avoid this pitfall bc as I said, its flexible enough for someone to spend between $500 and 10k or more with no commitments. So if price drops 30 percent in the few weeks prior, then people can just spend 30 percent less or whatever they want.

So easy not to collect money far in advance and then not have to worry about what happens to the funds and what the price is and to possibly need to give out refunds.

[Gyrsur]

I guess it was canceled because of economic reasons. if you calculate with a price of 1k per Bitcoin the price should stay above 1k if you have to pay the costs of the event afterwards. in fall 2013 it was a short spike above 1k and then the price collapsed again. I expect the same if the price will go above 100k because a lot of hodlers will then cash out.

Ok Ty for that info. My proposal will avoid this pitfall bc as I said, its flexible enough for someone to spend between $500 and 10k or more with no commitments. So if price drops 30 percent in the few weeks prior, then people can just spend 30 percent less or whatever they want.

So easy not to collect money far in advance and then not have to worry about what happens to the funds and what the price is to possibly give out refunds.

ok, but then you should keep the party exclusive. no more than 50 to 60 people in my opinion.

EDIT: just a Hat Gang party with no Gang Bang. (sorry for the flat joke!)

[nutildah]

+ + +  MORE THAN 220 RESERVATIONS  + + +

That's an epic thread, 64 pages of party planning. Lots of Legendaries no longer with us...

[gentlemand]

I guess it was canceled because of economic reasons. if you calculate with a price of 1k per Bitcoin the price should stay above 1k if you have to pay the costs of the event afterwards. in fall 2013 it was a short spike above 1k and then the price collapsed again. I expect the same if the price will go above 100k because a lot of hodlers will then cash out.

EDIT: it's always about risk. if someone is willing (and "crazy" enough) to organise such an event big style he should earn a decent amount of money for the risks he is taking.

Anyone expecting six figures and above to be the next peak and for that to be anything other than a fleeting top is a nutter. I'd be amazed if it lasted for more than a few hours, let alone days.

I always thought the 1k party I was familiar with stating it would only run once it stayed above 1k for a whole month was silly. Peaks are symbolic more than anything. You may as well celebrate them no matter what the aftermath consists of and how transient they were.

[kurious]

Interesting. I like this idea as well and think they would be compliments, not substitutes.  

Bc yes mad celebration is exactly what Im suggesting.

The 100k party is by far the biggest event talked about ever since I started following the thread in early 2014. It seems criminal to not attempt to honor it.

You're absolutely right, it will be a huge milestone - one we will all want to celebrate. Of course!

The WO Celebration party sounds great and also something that afaik was just breathed into life by you and worth pursuing, but not at the expense of the 100k legend for sure imo

The ideas are not mutually exclusive.  It was just I thought there could be more certainty about the Halvening date.  It's actually because I really want to see the party actually happen - not because I don't want to celebrate, but precisely because I do.  

One question:

What price do you expect to see one year after the Halvening?

That is - whether it's $50K or $350K - do you think it would be worth a party?

[Lambie Slayer]

I guess it was canceled because of economic reasons. if you calculate with a price of 1k per Bitcoin the price should stay above 1k if you have to pay the costs of the event afterwards. in fall 2013 it was a short spike above 1k and then the price collapsed again. I expect the same if the price will go above 100k because a lot of hodlers will then cash out.

Ok Ty for that info. My proposal will avoid this pitfall bc as I said, its flexible enough for someone to spend between $500 and 10k or more with no commitments. So if price drops 30 percent in the few weeks prior, then people can just spend 30 percent less or whatever they want.

So easy not to collect money far in advance and then not have to worry about what happens to the funds and what the price is to possibly give out refunds.

ok, but then you should keep the party exclusive. no more than 50 to 60 people in my opinion.

EDIT: just a Hat Gang party with no Gang Bang. (sorry for the flat joke!)

LOL, ok "no 2 in the pink an 1 in the stink". 75 max for nightclub and stripclub. WO hats only at dinner so 25 to 50 max. If someone does one in Europe for the other hats and then a non hat party for the rest of the peeps we should be good.

The organization of this party can hardly fail, the only way it fails is if no one shows, but if 98 percent dont show its still good times.

It has to be flexible imo bc if we make it an all or nothing deal we will end up canceling the whole thing bc not enough participation to make it work.

[Lambie Slayer]

Interesting. I like this idea as well and think they would be compliments, not substitutes.  

Bc yes mad celebration is exactly what Im suggesting.

The 100k party is by far the biggest event talked about ever since I started following the thread in early 2014. It seems criminal to not attempt to honor it.

You're absolutely right, it will be a huge milestone - one we will all want to celebrate. Of course!

The WO Celebration party sounds great and also something that afaik was just breathed into life by you and worth pursuing, but not at the expense of the 100k legend for sure imo

The ideas are not mutually exclusive.  It was just I thought there could be more certainty about the Halvening date.  It's actually because I really want to see the party actually happen - not because I don't want to celebrate, but precisely because I do.  

One question:

What price do you expect to see one year after the Halvening?

That is - whether it's $50K or $350K - do you think it would be worth a party?

30 to 50k and yes certainly worth a party.

[Lambie Slayer]

As im looking a bit on that 1k party thread yes, it seems they set the bar high and had to cancel due to lack of funds and logistical difficulties booking venues for large groups.

We wont have those problems with my proposal bc no funds need to be raised and we are not really booking venues, just going to massive venues that already churn tons of people through the doors each night and we will just fit in to the nightlife.

They seem to have had plenty of people ready and willing to go, just the plans were too big and grandiose so it failed to reach critical mass.

My plan can scale down to 1 person, kinda like Bitcoin only needs one person to keep it going.

[Lambie Slayer]

Im going into hodlsleep, ive stayed up way too late with the party discussion

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1136252687048151041

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.10518.pdf

Gleb Naumenko, Gregory Maxwell, Pieter Wuille

[fillippone]

https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1136252687048151041

https://arxiv.org/pdf/1905.10518.pdf

Gleb Naumenko, Gregory Maxwell, Pieter Wuille

Very nice development indeed.
It makes running a full node even more useful, and so compelling.
Every first class bitcoiner should run her own Bitcoin Full Node.

It has been detailed on the Bitcoin Optech Newsletter #49

Erlay proposed: a new paper by Gleb Naumenko, Pieter Wuille, Gregory Maxwell, Sasha Fedorova, and Ivan Beschastnikh describes an alternative transaction relay protocol, Erlay. Currently, when a node learns about a new transaction that passes its relay policy, it announces the txid of that transaction to all of its peers (except any peers that announced it previously). This is a very simple and effective policy, but it’s not efficient—most of the announcements a node receives are announcements for transactions it has already learned about from a different peer a few moments before, a redundancy that wastes about 44% of all node bandwidth according to the paper.

The paper attempts to reduce that redundancy using the authors’ Erlay protocol which separates relaying into two phases, a fanout phase and a reconciliation phase. In the fanout phase, a node will only directly announce new transactions it has learned about to a maximum of eight peers selected from the node’s outbound peers.

In the reconciliation phase, a node will periodically request from each of its outbound peers a sketch of short transaction identifiers (short txids) for all the new transactions that peer would normally announce to the node. Sketches are created using the libminisketch library described in Newsletter #26 which implements a highly bandwidth efficient set reconciliation technique based on error correction codes. Upon receipt of a requested sketch, the node itself also generates a sketch of all the new transactions that it would normally announced to its peer. The node combines its sketch with the peer’s sketch to produce a list of any differences between the sketches. That diff contains the short txids of any transactions that are in one set of new transactions but not the other. The node can then request any transactions it doesn’t have from that peer and proceed to querying its next peer for that peer’s sketch. This is repeated for a new peer once each second, allowing the node to quickly receive any transactions it didn’t receive via a fanout announcement. This simple two-step protocol of fanout and reconciliation describes the primary operation of Erlay; the remaining parts of the protocol described and analyzed in the paper cover the optimal parameters to use for the sketches and a series of fallback steps to take if a particular attempt at set reconciliation fails.

After describing the Erlay protocol, the paper analyzes its performance using both a simulated network of 60,000 nodes (similar in number and use to the current Bitcoin network) and a live set of 100 nodes spread internationally across several datacenters. The most notable result is that Erlay reduces the amount of bandwidth used to announce the existence of new transactions by 84%. However, it does take about 80% (2.6 seconds) longer for transactions to propagate to all of the nodes in the network. It’s still the case that Bitcoin transactions can only be confirmed once every ten minutes on average, so a three second slowdown seems like a reasonable price to pay for a major reduction in bandwidth.

Having established that the protocol is a worthwhile efficiency improvement, the paper considers the most important of its secondary aspects: its effect on privacy. Currently, each Bitcoin Core node slightly delays the relaying of transactions to its peers; this makes it more difficult for spy nodes to use timing correlations to guess that the first peer they receive a transaction from is the peer that created the transaction. Multiple simulations were run testing the effectiveness of the current relay protocol against the effectiveness of Erlay for various amounts of spy nodes among network peers, from 5% spy nodes to 60% spy nodes. In cases where the spy nodes were public nodes accepting incoming connections, Erlay always performed as well or better than the current protocol. In cases where the spy nodes were private nodes making connections to honest nodes, Erlay sometimes performed better and sometimes performed worse—but never more than 10% worse (and this worst case is an unlikely situation). The paper also notes that Erlay is compatible with the proposed BIP156 Dandelion protocol for further improving the network’s resistance to spy nodes.

Considering future possible changes to Bitcoin relay policy, the paper notes that an increase in the number of outbound peers from 8 to 32 would only increase the bandwidth used by a node to announce the existence of new transactions by 32% with Erlay compared to 300% using the current protocol. As described in the paragraph above about Erlay’s two phases, new transactions would still only be fanned out via direct announcements to 8 peers, but nodes would perform set reconciliation with all 32 peers. A four-fold improvement in relay connectivity improves the chance that time-sensitive transactions for contract protocols like LN will make it to miners quickly.

In addition to libminisketch, the code changes necessary to implement Erlay in Bitcoin Core amount to only 584 lines of code, and the CPU intensive part of set reconciliation has been benchmarked to take less than a millisecond under conditions that are worse than expected in practice. If no objections are raised over the paper, Naumenko has announced his intention to write a BIP and work to get Erlay included in a subsequent version of Bitcoin Core. The method used for transaction relay is part of the P2P network protocol (not a consensus rule), so the change could begin operation as soon as multiple users upgrade to it, although we expect nodes will also include a backwards-compatible mode to support peers who haven’t upgraded.

[VB1001]

Now my hat is Sr.Member

This is a small balance to date in Bitcointalk, threads created:

Code:

Dec-2018 How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online ?  127 Replies 13.160 Views
Dec-2018 List Exchanges Hacked 2011 / 2019     152 Replies 14.473 Views
Mar-2019 Bitcoin Prehistory                     56 Replies    896 Views

Well done!
I suggest you to edit your message, providing links to your threads (they look interesting), so the lazy chaps as myself can go there and have a read, and possibly merit them!

I think the threads have enough merit.
Now it is good to see how the merits come from the old members of the forum, they do not publish, but they give merit, this means that they liked the thread.

Thx, fillippone.

[fillippone]

Now my hat is Sr.Member

This is a small balance to date in Bitcointalk, threads created:

Code:

Dec-2018 How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online ?  127 Replies 13.160 Views
Dec-2018 List Exchanges Hacked 2011 / 2019     152 Replies 14.473 Views
Mar-2019 Bitcoin Prehistory                     56 Replies    896 Views

Well done!
I suggest you to edit your message, providing links to your threads (they look interesting), so the lazy chaps as myself can go there and have a read, and possibly merit them!

I think the threads have enough merit.
Now it is good to see how the merits come from the old members of the forum, they do not publish, but they give merit, this means that they liked the thread.

Thx, fillippone.

I didn't want to search those threads to read them, but now you want me to hit the search button doing the dirty work...
I am lazy...



EDIT:
Come on Lazy Chaps, Fillippone did the job: have a read of those very intresting threads:

• How Many Full Nodes Bitcoin Online ?
• List Exchanges Hacked 2011 / 2019
• Bitcoin Prehistory

[fillippone]

I think the threads have enough merit.

Anyway, I merited the post because they were worth it.
But only one
The last one of my merits.
I had more than 40 merits, my personal hoarding stash (pointless) PB.
Then I went on a spending spree.
It was fun as it lasted.
Now I am officially out of merits.
 

[Paashaas]

Lightning trades are available at hodlhodl.com.

https://medium.com/@hodlhodl/lightning-trades-available-on-hodl-hodl-mainnet-78a1f0b60a9f