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Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 19 (19%)
1-10% - 11 (11%)
11-20% - 12 (12%)
21-30% - 16 (16%)
31-40% - 4 (4%)
41-50% - 10 (10%)
51-60% - 8 (8%)
61-70% - 5 (5%)
71-80% - 3 (3%)
81-90% - 2 (2%)
91-99% - 1 (1%)
100% - 9 (9%)
Total Voters: 100

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21781216 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (147 posts by 36 users deleted.)
JSRAW
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May 22, 2019, 05:08:07 PM

What's the fuss about Theresa May resigning tonight?

No idea, I’m on my third glass of cheap Prosecco & watching a gameshow Cheesy

Enjoy your evening bhai! politics is shitty like game of throne these days anyways.





Lady Hitler? Cheesy


I’m self employed, I pay as little tax as possible. It doesn’t matter much to me who is in charge of the country. I am very much anti establishment.

Plus when bitcoin moons I’ll get away with even more Smiley

Same but taxpayer " little tax theft here and there" middle-class mentality.

Cares about who is in charge of the country "for me Vote value more than Indian Rupee" recently voted in world biggest voting festival. results coming tomorrow.

Some time Anti-establishment, sometimes not "depends on the merit"
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May 22, 2019, 05:08:44 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), Toxic2040 (1)

Even if you have a good plan and you largely follow your plan, there can still be a decent amount of trepidation during the process of the BTC price going UP like a bat out of hell...

-snip-

So build the shaving/skimming into the plan. That's all I'm saying.

This is Bitcoin. If your plan does not consider the possibility that the price overshoots by at least an order of magnitude more than you -- in your wildest dreams -- would dare to hope, then u r doing it rong.


Absolutely... while I would be highly surprised to see 6 digits anytime soon, my plan does allow for prices all the way up to 1MM.   (( past 1MM.. its just a snarky notation that says "hookers and blow"  Grin ))

I have absolutely zero trepidation following my plan..  

Let your logical self make the plan..  then when the price goes bonkers, your emotional self can trust that your logical self knew what he was doing and you can just sit back and enjoy the ride..  

worked for me just fine in 2017.

Does your plan say that you are going to run out of BTC at $1million?  Or will you have some left?

Sometimes I play around with my BTC price trajectories, and I recall that when the BTC price was in the triple digits, my trajectories only went a bit above $10k, but as the BTC price continued to go up, I expanded some of my trajectories to go to further prices, and some of that is merely cut and paste and others just update to go to BIGGER numbers once I change the base numbers in the fields (the where the BTC price is at numbers).  

I have no fucking idea about whether BTC prices will even come close to the upper ends of my current price trajectories, but still in 2017, BTC prices easily surpassed my earlier versions of my BTC price trajectories.  I just looked back and I see that my more bullish and forward looking trajectories only went to $5k when the BTC price was in three digits, and as the BTC price went up, my inputing of new numbers into the formula such as then current price and then current BTC holdings would cause the trajectory to adjust upwards, but still in 2017 the BTC price seemed to be wildly outpacing my BTC price trajectories  and I had to adjust the shown BTC prices therein to keep up with BTC's price movement, and also consider whether my trajectories were matching up with how things were actually playing out in terms of my cash flow..

One of my questions to myself during that time was whether what I was doing was in the ballpark of my BTC price trajectories, even though in earlier times the trajectories had seemed pie in the sky, theoretical and even crazy to some people, my question to myself was to match whether they were being played out in the ballpark of my plan(s).
 
Anyhow, when BTC prices went to nearly $20k it became justifiable that my BTC price projections should go at least to $100k, and there was one point, in recent times that I thought that it would not hurt to copy and paste my formula to see how the BTC price trajectory plays out in a further out upwards BTC price projection, just in case.. let's see how $500k looks..  

Sometimes the way that I talk about what I am doing is weird, too.  For example, I will say that my formula just continues to incrementally sell about 1% of my BTC stash for every 10% price rise, but at a certain point, even though the practice shows that I should continue to sell BTC and accumulate fiat, the ratio of fiat value to BTC value does not really come down very much, even while it is continuing to build fiat and to diminish my BTC holdings, and it seems that I kind of get stuck into the 90% BTC to 10% fiat ratio territory....  

but if I look back in the price trajectory at my BTC holdings today and compare them to my projected BTC holdings at various price points, I will see that if BTC prices were to make $500k, I would have sold a bit more than 30% of the quantity of my today's bitcoin holdings.  Even though I did not cut and paste further data, I am sure that the numbers are not much different in the event that BTC prices were to get up to $1million.

The sell off ratio continues to maintain about a 90% BTC to 10% fiat ratio, which seems to cause an ongoing generation of a lot of fiat, and during that process my BTC widdles away so slowly that it is maintaining the decently large base of about 90% - even if I look at it more closely over the whole stretch, and I will see from the earlier times, I had sold about 30% of my stash from the earlier days (kind of assuming that the price goes straight up rather than buying some BTC back upon price drops), so at some points, it looks like these kinds of projected rises in BTC prices causes me (and likely many other BTC hodlers) to become quite rich.. and maybe even too rich overall.

Anyhow, BTC prices going up causes "good problems to have" for HODLers, and I am thinking that I will have to figure out ways to spend so much excess money (again a good problem to have, if BTC prices play out in that upwards direction)...  

I think this thread has a saying "never go full fiat" .. I have taken that to heart.. Even at $1million, I'm not anywhere near full fiat.   I just haven't yet put any thought into how I'll modify the formulas past that point.  

From reading all of the above, it looks like we have _scarily_ similar thought processes on this concept as a whole.  

I've found the same phenomenon with the BTC to Fiat percentages, although, mine seems to stabilize around 80% BTC to 20% fiat...  "Fiat" in this case is shorthand for "diverse portfolio of stocks, bonds, property, cash equivilants, etc..."  

Amazingly, the stabalization point for me seems also to be around $500k.  I'd honestly be rather interested in finding out if any other WO posters are seeing the same with their long term plans...

And yes, I agree with your quandry of figuring out ways to spend excess money. I call this my "hookers and blow" stage.. not to be taken literally of course.

I figure if/when BTC ever hits about $250k, then I'll take the time to extend the planning out past a million. I just can't in good faith put serious thought to that at the moment, cuz I'm sure once the point arrives where I really don't have to worry about finances for the rest of my life, I won't be exactly the same person I am now...

Ugg. heavy thoughts..  
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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May 22, 2019, 05:13:19 PM
Merited by infofront (1), VB1001 (1), hodl_2015 (1)



Holy shieeet

You are not anonymous bruh!

Wearing my hat back.

thats why i never bothered with mixers or even trying to hide my purchases made with btc at newegg or for PMs and reported those purchases on my taxes as they were taxable events. and i dont worry about KYC at the two exchanges i use as fiat on/off ramps. btc is not anonymous and i never treated it as such.

((they)) may not be able to trace some transactions and link them to people now, but i am certain they will be able to do so to a large extent in the future. they will be able to go back as far as they want as its all public anyway. and i would rather not have the IRS, or whoever, make my life miserable down the road.
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May 22, 2019, 05:31:18 PM

thats why i never bothered with mixers [...]
Tax in Netherlands is just 1.2% per year of the Jan 1st "value", nothing on actual gains. Never used a mixer but I assume they charge more than 1.2%. Looks like they spend a year collecting information about really dumb people.
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May 22, 2019, 05:35:23 PM



Holy shieeet

You are not anonymous bruh!

Wearing my hat back.

thats why i never bothered with mixers or even trying to hide my purchases made with btc at newegg or for PMs and reported those purchases on my taxes as they were taxable events. and i dont worry about KYC at the two exchanges i use as fiat on/off ramps. btc is not anonymous and i never treated it as such.

((they)) may not be able to trace some transactions and link them to people now, but i am certain they will be able to do so to a large extent in the future. they will be able to go back as far as they want as its all public anyway. and i would rather not have the IRS, or whoever, make my life miserable down the road.

Yep, tax office depending on jurisdiction has like 10 to 20 years time to jail you for dodging taxes.

Via chain analysis and kyc on exchanges .gov will know what you do, hard to escape this.
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May 22, 2019, 05:36:21 PM
Merited by VB1001 (1), MrFreeRoMan (1)

Good morning.




#dyor
1h

#stronghands
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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May 22, 2019, 05:40:20 PM

thats why i never bothered with mixers [...]
Tax in Netherlands is just 1.2% per year of the Jan 1st "value", nothing on actual gains. Never used a mixer but I assume they charge more than 1.2%. Looks like they spend a year collecting information about really dumb people.

in the USA we pay capitol gains on the difference in price when bought vs when sold. so i actually like having a very simple straight forward way to match my coins for tax purposes. there are a few different ways to do it, last in 1st out; 1st in 1st out etc. it can make a big difference in what you pay.
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#STAYinsideSTAYdrunk *the dude*


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May 22, 2019, 05:42:46 PM

Hehe finally first tournament starting here, but but few other playing scoops as well Roll Eyes
Last of the V8s
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Be a bank


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May 22, 2019, 05:43:32 PM

'capitol' gainz is correct terminology
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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May 22, 2019, 05:43:58 PM

((they)) may not be able to trace some transactions and link them to people now, but i am certain they will be able to do so to a large extent in the future. they will be able to go back as far as they want as its all public anyway. and i would rather not have the IRS, or whoever, make my life miserable down the road.

Yep, tax office depending on jurisdiction has like 10 to 20 years time to jail you for dodging taxes.

Via chain analysis and kyc on exchanges .gov will know what you do, hard to escape this.

yup thats the way i figure it. sure be a drag to be lounging in my mega yacht 10 years from now and suddenly have 3 letter agencies crawling over your life, all because you tried to avoid paying a few thousand in taxes.
vapourminer
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what is this "brake pedal" you speak of?


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May 22, 2019, 05:47:06 PM

'capitol' gainz is correct terminology

oops my bad i suck at financial terminology. i just wanna be rich.
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May 22, 2019, 06:03:38 PM

'capitol' gainz is correct terminology

oops my bad i suck at financial terminology. i just wanna be rich.

Using patented GAINZ CORP Temporal Impedance Technology we have received actual video footage of the famed(notorious) 100k Wall party.


Hodlerz partying.



Dont wait..order your bespoke GC T.I.T.'s package today!
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May 22, 2019, 06:06:09 PM

"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"

Bitcoin yearly lows:

2011: $1
2012: $4
2013: $65
2014: $200
2015: $185
2016: $365
2017: $780
2018: $3,200

Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Be a bank


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May 22, 2019, 06:07:39 PM
Merited by Toxic2040 (1)



you cat people will be the death of me
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May 22, 2019, 06:10:23 PM

"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"


Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Umm.. how is "volatility" defined in the above?  those numbers seem way low to me.....
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Any questions related to my signature site? PM me!


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May 22, 2019, 06:13:38 PM



https://twitter.com/cz_binance/status/1131260191242981376
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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May 22, 2019, 06:15:42 PM

?? So you actually RL use it ? What for, where, to who ......?

On the new internet the "MetaNet"
Homepage for it  https://www.agora.icu/

Ah, OK, so nowhere then. Kind of as I suspected...

Quote
We estimate the website value of agora.icu is currently at $ 278 USD and reaches roughly 361 unique users each day that generate 381 daily pageviews with a daily revenue (from advertisements, i.e Google AdSense) of $ 0 USD approximately.

http://www.siteworthtraffic.com/report/agora.icu

Your observation of very little user count is likely valid.

However, the use of Google AdSense as a means of measuring revenue on a system that was expressly architected in order to use other than eyeball advertising for its revenue model is beyond stupidity.
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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May 22, 2019, 06:20:25 PM

You guys think we will ever see BCash @$4k again within any bullrun? I feel like I lost a fortune by not selling @4k and kept that scam hodling.

You will not find anyone here who thinks that BCH will ever be $4k again

False statement is false.

XD
Well have you been to the Altcoins section? Everyone and their mother thinks Shitcoin X is going to upser Bitcoin and be worth 1mil.

Yes, but Shitcoin X can't trace back to the Satoshi Genesis block, and Shitcoin X's protocol does not have more in common with the original Bitcoin protocol than does that of BTC.

Quote
Like our little reality tv show move of trying to copy write Bitcoin and the Genesis paper. The fucker can't prove he's Satoshi and hell has essentially disproved it, but knows how to rile up new comers to crypto during runs doesn't he?

::le sigh:: ...aaaand we're back to 'Aussie man bad!'

And we still have not discussed the fact that Majormax was flamingly wrong in his/her blanket statement.
PLENTY of shitcoins are forks of Bitcoin that doesn't mean anything, fuck I could fork Bitcoin and put a 1 minute block with 1tb max blocks and feel like goofey everything chainer's would be drooling at it.

Yes, but that would be an even more grievous diversion from the original Bitcoin protocol. Try again.

Quote
Aussie man is the only reason the coin is still even discussed or betted on.

False statement is false.
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May 22, 2019, 06:20:35 PM

"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"


Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Umm.. how is "volatility" defined in the above?  those numbers seem way low to me.....

https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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May 22, 2019, 06:24:59 PM

Nodes set the rules, not miners
If the majority of miners mine blocks against consensus rules, as defined by nodes, nothing happens, as mined block, even if the longest chain is produced, are not relayed trough the network as rejected by the nodes.

The only option a so-called 'node' has when it encounters a chain it doesn't like is to orphan itself from that chain. And hope it can find another it is happy with. If the miners en masse move to a new implementation, each and every so-called 'node' merely fucks itself individually.
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