Bitcoin Forum
August 12, 2020, 09:51:51 PM *
News: Latest Bitcoin Core release: 0.20.0 [Torrent]
 
   Home   Help Search Login Register More  
Poll
Question: How much of your corn do you plan on cashing out in the next massive bull run?
None - 27 (20.3%)
1-10% - 18 (13.5%)
11-20% - 15 (11.3%)
21-30% - 19 (14.3%)
31-40% - 7 (5.3%)
41-50% - 14 (10.5%)
51-60% - 9 (6.8%)
61-70% - 5 (3.8%)
71-80% - 4 (3%)
81-90% - 2 (1.5%)
91-99% - 3 (2.3%)
100% - 10 (7.5%)
Total Voters: 133

Pages: « 1 ... 23742 23743 23744 23745 23746 23747 23748 23749 23750 23751 23752 23753 23754 23755 23756 23757 23758 23759 23760 23761 23762 23763 23764 23765 23766 23767 23768 23769 23770 23771 23772 23773 23774 23775 23776 23777 23778 23779 23780 23781 23782 23783 23784 23785 23786 23787 23788 23789 23790 23791 [23792] 23793 23794 23795 23796 23797 23798 23799 23800 23801 23802 23803 23804 23805 23806 23807 23808 23809 23810 23811 23812 23813 23814 23815 23816 23817 23818 23819 23820 23821 23822 23823 23824 23825 23826 23827 23828 23829 23830 23831 23832 23833 23834 23835 23836 23837 23838 23839 23840 23841 23842 ... 27109 »
  Print  
Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21791065 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (148 posts by 37 users deleted.)
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2408
Merit: 1565



View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:25:59 PM

"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"

Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

So, he is saying that volatility is "steadily" increasing during the last three years?
Lol, it does feel this way, regardless.
1597269111
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597269111

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597269111
Reply with quote  #2

1597269111
Report to moderator
1597269111
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597269111

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597269111
Reply with quote  #2

1597269111
Report to moderator
1597269111
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597269111

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597269111
Reply with quote  #2

1597269111
Report to moderator
Advertised sites are not endorsed by the Bitcoin Forum. They may be unsafe, untrustworthy, or illegal in your jurisdiction. Advertise here.
1597269111
Hero Member
*
Offline Offline

Posts: 1597269111

View Profile Personal Message (Offline)

Ignore
1597269111
Reply with quote  #2

1597269111
Report to moderator
siggy_77
Jr. Member
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 41
Merit: 23


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:30:31 PM

"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"


Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Umm.. how is "volatility" defined in the above?  those numbers seem way low to me.....

https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/volatility-index/

Ok.. so from the FAQ on that page:

Quote
How volatile is Bitcoin relative to gold and other currencies?
For comparison, the volatility of gold averages around 1.2%, while other major currencies average between 0.5% and 1.0%.

so the above numbers don't seem very high.. until you compare them to gold and USD....
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2842
Merit: 1489


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:35:45 PM

More tediouser than Game of Dragons
More bloodier than Deadwood
More fireworksier than Chinese New Year
More drugsier than The Wire
Duller than Soccer itself
Shinier than a Lamorghini
TV's latest sensation is
The Wall

current episode #2391x featuring
-old memes
-baby nazi
-aussie man bad
-fake coins, fake people
-merit circle jerk
-depressed gay intellectual
-soft pornos
-sex, trains, rockets, cats and dildos
-graphic pictures of lines going down and up
-people realising bitcoin is not for coffee or pizza - again

Lulzworthy.

Speaking of which, today is Laszlo's Pizza Day. Eat a pizza.
Paashaas
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2394
Merit: 1938



View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:38:38 PM

Moved Jbreher on unignored out of curiosity, perhaps he changed.

Quite disappointed to see (as expected) the usual bullshit.



Back on ignored...lol.



jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2842
Merit: 1489


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:43:56 PM
Merited by infofront (1)


The immutability of the 1MB blocksize still stands if we throw out the word "protocol". Satoshi knew that once he slipped that blocksize limit into the core client, it would be there forever, and become the de facto standard in all bitcoin software implementations. That's why Garzik and the others were opposed to it at the time. Satoshi said that it was temporary, but he knew enough about game theory to realize 1MB blocks would become a Schelling Point within the bitcoin network if it was left in the core client long enough.

I agree fully with the above but unfortunately the 1MB block size has already been abandoned when segwit was introduced.

Reading between the lines, it appears that infofront may adhere to the following hypothesis:
Once enough value gets bound up in segwit addresses, it becomes an irresistible honeypot. For while those addresses hold value under segwit rules, under the previous protocol rules, they are 'anyonecanspend' transactions. To the extent that the miners collude to roll back the chain, they are free to claim these 'anyonecanspend' TXOUTs for themselves. Every additional UTXO held in a segwit addy is additional incentive for them to behave thusly.

Once done, then the protocol and system would be back to the ersatz immutable 1MB block chain cap.

But hey - we've been over this already.

It's a theory. One which infofront may also not adhere to.  Huh
Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568
Merit: 3954


Be a bank


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:45:29 PM

https://www.coindesk.com/us-copyright-office-says-it-does-not-recognize-craig-wright-as-satoshi
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218
Merit: 1962


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:47:25 PM

"Bitcoin is too volatile, it will never be money"


Bitcoin yearly volatility:

2011: 16%
2012: 11%
2013: 14%
2014: 13%
2015: 8%
2016: 5%
2017: 6%
2018: 7%

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1128657389677436928?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Umm.. how is "volatility" defined in the above?  those numbers seem way low to me.....

It’s something but it’s not math

Edit: apparently it’s rolling 30 day volatility not annual
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218
Merit: 1962


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:50:50 PM

Nodes set the rules, not miners
If the majority of miners mine blocks against consensus rules, as defined by nodes, nothing happens, as mined block, even if the longest chain is produced, are not relayed trough the network as rejected by the nodes.

The only option a so-called 'node' has when it encounters a chain it doesn't like is to orphan itself from that chain. And hope it can find another it is happy with. If the miners en masse move to a new implementation, each and every so-called 'node' merely fucks itself individually.

Do we have to UASF every time you raise this misconception?  We have had this exact discussion at least five times. 
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2842
Merit: 1489


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:53:12 PM

Should we believe, the US registration and move on with Craig Wright being the real Satoshi ?

Seems to me to be insufficient evidence for such a conclusion. But you do you.

Quote
Or its just another fud which will go around in some days ?

Maybe. Hopefully, we will learn in time.

Quote
What can we do to stop this shit?

Absofuckinlutely nothing, most likely.
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2842
Merit: 1489


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:54:48 PM

Did your old account get banned for plagiarism or what happened?

Nothing happened, and is it not relevant for new people to discuss here ? Or whats the issue?

I'm guessing that the comment was precipitated by the universal belief -- on pretty solid evidence --  that Dorian is not that Satoshi Nakamoto.
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2842
Merit: 1489


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:57:04 PM

Should we believe, the US registration and move on with Craig Wright being the real Satoshi ? Or its just another fud which will go around in some days ? What can we do to stop this shit?
A simple registration is enough for you to believe someone who has constantly lied and refused to simply sign the Genesis block? It hasn't been approved by the copyright office just a registration, it can still be denied.

Well, the copyright office does not 'approve' claims. The registration is merely prima facie evidence of a superior claim. Any further action is contingent upon court action. Only such would lead to 'denial'.
Last of the V8s
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1568
Merit: 3954


Be a bank


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 06:59:22 PM

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billybambrough/2019/05/22/twitters-jack-dorsey-and-square-are-making-mass-bitcoin-adoption-inevitable

Resistance is futile
JayJuanGee
Legendary
*
Online Online

Activity: 2352
Merit: 3058


How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:00:17 PM
Merited by siggy_77 (1)

[edited out]

I think this thread has a saying "never go full fiat" .. I have taken that to heart.. Even at $1million, I'm not anywhere near full fiat.   I just haven't yet put any thought into how I'll modify the formulas past that point.  

Yes.  I think that the expression works in both directions.  Don't go full fiat and don't go full BTC.  Most of the time, these days, a vast majority of people are not going to be able to go full BTC even if they wanted to, but the point remains that we are still in a fiat world, so there are many investments that are going to exist in fiat, and it remains a matter of remaining cognizant of both your investments and your allocation levels.

Some people do play around with going full fiat (or completely getting out of BTC to try to buy lower, and I personally consider that approach as an unnecessary extreme - even if the odds are decently in favor of the BTC prices going down... Hey an extreme case scenario, in my view, might be selling 80% of your BTC or something like that, but for myself, I could not imagine a feeling of necessity to sell more than 50 of my BTC in any one swoop - unless I was getting close to death or some other extreme personal scenario.



From reading all of the above, it looks like we have _scarily_ similar thought processes on this concept as a whole.  

I've found the same phenomenon with the BTC to Fiat percentages, although, mine seems to stabilize around 80% BTC to 20% fiat...  "Fiat" in this case is shorthand for "diverse portfolio of stocks, bonds, property, cash equivilants, etc..."

Well you are thinking about the matter a bit different from me in terms of how to incorporate your other investments into your BTC portfolio allocation determinations, so in that regard, I would be much less into BTC than you because I was talking about how to consider the fiat that I have dedicated to BTC investing, and I was not referring to other investments that I have.  We are all different in that regard, and there are some younger folks who get into bitcoin and they have little to no investment in other asset classes, and then they start to erroneously believe that sufficient diversification comes from investing in other cryptos....

Anywho, I am getting a bit away from the topic, and my initial goal, when getting into BTC, was to put about 10% of my total quasi-liquid assets into Bitcoin, and I probably got into the 12% to 13% territory since BTC prices remained quite flat through 2015... and furthermore, BTC's subsequent enormous price appreciation caused my allocation towards BTC to occupy a much higher amount that I did not really diversify out of, but I conceptualize the investments somewhat differently and I consider my investment in BTC to serve as a kind of self-contained and separate play toy.. that currently does add up to more than my other investments... more than double, based on current BTC prices.   

Amazingly, the stabalization point for me seems also to be around $500k.  I'd honestly be rather interested in finding out if any other WO posters are seeing the same with their long term plans...

Well, it could depend upon how much equity that they have at this point and/or if they are heavily into accumulation versus a phase that has more maintenance emphasis.  And the later stage would be a kind of cashing out phase (like you mentioned, even the cashing out phase might be incremental and prudent in terms of never cashing out all BTC absent extreme circumstances).

And yes, I agree with your quandry of figuring out ways to spend excess money. I call this my "hookers and blow" stage.. not to be taken literally of course.

Yep...  If prices are now below $10k, there should be a decent number of us active BTC HODLers who should be able to reach a kind of hookers, blow and lambo stage, especially if prices go supra $100k (of course the exact price point is going to vary).


I figure if/when BTC ever hits about $250k, then I'll take the time to extend the planning out past a million.

Like you suggest, might be too early to get ahead of ourselves in that regard.

I just can't in good faith put serious thought to that at the moment, cuz I'm sure once the point arrives where I really don't have to worry about finances for the rest of my life, I won't be exactly the same person I am now...

Ugg. heavy thoughts..  

Well, that too.  Sometimes, it is better to consider such changes and adjustments once the situation changes in a way to make the planning more realistic and more in line with where you are going to be at that time, whether that time comes in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years or some other time frame (hoping that such a time frame comes). 
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218
Merit: 1962


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:00:45 PM

Should we believe, the US registration and move on with Craig Wright being the real Satoshi ? Or its just another fud which will go around in some days ? What can we do to stop this shit?
A simple registration is enough for you to believe someone who has constantly lied and refused to simply sign the Genesis block? It hasn't been approved by the copyright office just a registration, it can still be denied.

Well, the copyright office does not 'approve' claims. The registration is merely prima facie evidence of a superior claim. Any further action is contingent upon court action. Only such would lead to 'denial'.

It’s not prima facie evidence of anything other than evidence of a claim having been made, which claim could be made by my dog
jbreher
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2842
Merit: 1489


lose: unfind ... loose: untight


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:02:54 PM

Quote from: jbreher
Quote from: infofront
The immutability of the 1MB blocksize still stands if we throw out the word "protocol". Satoshi knew that once he slipped that blocksize limit into the core client, it would be there forever,  

I think the interim limits of 250KB and 500KB invalidate your assertion.

I assume you're talking about the default, "soft block limits" that miners were free to choose, as long as they were under the 1MB hard (consensus) limit?

Yes. I'll read your references before further comment in this direction.

Quote
Biodom
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2408
Merit: 1565



View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:03:43 PM
Merited by infofront (1)

Let's assume that in the year 2023 BTC is 250K without hyperinflation in fiat (as per Draper's numbers since he nailed the 10K time spot precisely).
Whatcha gonna do?

Retire?
Buy RE in trendy places (SF, NY, London)?
Buy a ranch (not for me), maybe a house in the woods?
Travel (or alternating between golfing, skiing and parasailing)?

Anybody care to say?

My choices (in the aforementioned scenario):
1. Retire (70-75% probability).
2. A small apartment, maybe NY or San Fran or even LA (got tired of all the heat in TX). Location is more important than size. Views are much better in San Fran, but the city loses it's culture mix, apparently.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/style/how-san-francisco-broke-americas-heart/2019/05/21/ef9a0ac0-70ea-11e9-9eb4-0828f5389013_story.html
3. A basic house in the woods-Oregon, maybe.
4. A few trips to Europe, maybe Japan. Will go to a few CL finals, hopefully!

Oh, forgot to say that I would not do anything if we keep oscillating between 5k and 20K.
HairyMaclairy
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 1218
Merit: 1962


Degenerate bull hatter & Bitcoin monotheist


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:08:05 PM

I wonder if the coingeek article counts as wire fraud.  They are getting dangerously close to pissing off the USG.
infofront
Legendary
*
Offline Offline

Activity: 2100
Merit: 2106


Shitcoin Minimalist


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:08:48 PM


The immutability of the 1MB blocksize still stands if we throw out the word "protocol". Satoshi knew that once he slipped that blocksize limit into the core client, it would be there forever, and become the de facto standard in all bitcoin software implementations. That's why Garzik and the others were opposed to it at the time. Satoshi said that it was temporary, but he knew enough about game theory to realize 1MB blocks would become a Schelling Point within the bitcoin network if it was left in the core client long enough.

I agree fully with the above but unfortunately the 1MB block size has already been abandoned when segwit was introduced.

Reading between the lines, it appears that infofront may adhere to the following hypothesis:
Once enough value gets bound up in segwit addresses, it becomes an irresistible honeypot. For while those addresses hold value under segwit rules, under the previous protocol rules, they are 'anyonecanspend' transactions. To the extent that the miners collude to roll back the chain, they are free to claim these 'anyonecanspend' TXOUTs for themselves. Every additional UTXO held in a segwit addy is additional incentive for them to behave thusly.

Once done, then the protocol and system would be back to the ersatz immutable 1MB block chain cap.

But hey - we've been over this already.

It's a theory. One which infofront may also not adhere to.  Huh

You laid that out pretty well. I'm not as certain as Shelby or TMSR that it will happen though.

My biggest concern with that theory is that the honeypot will be devalued after it's taken by the miners, which reduces the incentive to take it. OTOH, the segwit coin airdrop they'd get might make up for any devaluation of the 1MB chain caused by miners taking the 'anyonecanspend' transactions. And what do you think?
gembitz
Sr. Member
****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1162
Merit: 358


*Brute force will solve any Bitcoin problem*


View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:09:09 PM
Merited by infofront (1)

Did your old account get banned for plagiarism or what happened?

Nothing happened, and is it not relevant for new people to discuss here ? Or whats the issue?

I'm guessing that the comment was precipitated by the universal belief -- on pretty solid evidence --  that Dorian is not that Satoshi Nakamoto.

“I am no longer involved in bitcoin and I cannot discuss it… It’s been turned over to other people. They are in charge of it now. I no longer have any connection.”
~ Dorian ( satoshi ) Nakamoto

 Cool

choo choo ===> weeeee

#hatpeople

d_eddie
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Activity: 1148
Merit: 938



View Profile
May 22, 2019, 07:11:47 PM

Masterluc via Telegram

So what, a triangle on Thursday into 10k?

Pages: « 1 ... 23742 23743 23744 23745 23746 23747 23748 23749 23750 23751 23752 23753 23754 23755 23756 23757 23758 23759 23760 23761 23762 23763 23764 23765 23766 23767 23768 23769 23770 23771 23772 23773 23774 23775 23776 23777 23778 23779 23780 23781 23782 23783 23784 23785 23786 23787 23788 23789 23790 23791 [23792] 23793 23794 23795 23796 23797 23798 23799 23800 23801 23802 23803 23804 23805 23806 23807 23808 23809 23810 23811 23812 23813 23814 23815 23816 23817 23818 23819 23820 23821 23822 23823 23824 23825 23826 23827 23828 23829 23830 23831 23832 23833 23834 23835 23836 23837 23838 23839 23840 23841 23842 ... 27109 »
  Print  
 
Jump to:  

Sponsored by , a Bitcoin-accepting VPN.
Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2006-2009, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!