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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 34 (29.1%)
2020 - 45 (38.5%)
2021 - 29 (24.8%)
2022 - 5 (4.3%)
2023 - 1 (0.9%)
Never - 3 (2.6%)
Total Voters: 117

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21173652 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
Ipwich
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May 13, 2019, 11:17:14 PM


That was some dump.

Yeah, I saw that, but we will be back soon, that was a healthy dump.

Another big dump will result to even high big pump.
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May 13, 2019, 11:17:59 PM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not?
Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril.
I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash.

Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth.

In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think).

Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain.

People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms.

So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset.


I actually agree with this reasoning...and this happening eventually.
I would think, however, that such derivative bitcoins would be limited in number (maybe 3-10 times more, but not 100-1000 times more).
Maybe they would not even be called bitcoins, but something else.
Beforehand, btc rose rapidly upon learning about upcoming futures on CBOE/CME, then declined.
A similar scenario might be unfolding here: a rapid rise into BAKKT (in July), then some retreat, a temporal one, perhaps.
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May 13, 2019, 11:20:01 PM
Merited by Wolf Rainer (1), Torque (1)

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May 13, 2019, 11:23:29 PM

I would think, however, that such derivative bitcoins would be limited in number (maybe 3-10 times more, but not 100-1000 times more).

Have a look at the BTC trading volume on coinmarketcap and compare it with the blockchain movements for the day. You might get a fright. BTC denominated off-chain trades in derivative bitcoin will probably outnumber actual BTC by hundreds of thousands if not millions.
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May 13, 2019, 11:24:03 PM

I thought we outlawed dips. What is this sorcery?  Angry
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Be a bank.


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May 13, 2019, 11:32:25 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), Bitcoinaire (1)

https://steemit.com/trading/@anonymint/re-anonymint-most-important-bitcoin-chart-ever-20190511t061008384z
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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May 13, 2019, 11:33:18 PM

And we finally bounce back again, this run is so fast, it could go to as high as $8 Grin Grin Grin.
I'm gonna sleep later but I'm sure with so much excitement now, it will give me a hard time to sleep.

Good morning everyone, I was never wrong with my price prediction this morning.

Welcome $8K, happy to finally have you here, please don't stay awhile, we want $9K next.


Damn who Will be the first one with an on time Vegeta??

Vegan or meat eater?
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May 13, 2019, 11:42:35 PM

Was someone able to break TrueCrypt? It was discontinued in 2014 but it is used to this day. It is said that not even the NSA can decrypt it.
As far as I know, TrueCrypt was never broken, but the exact circumstances of its abandonment remain unclear. The latest version that was published was marked as a no-no by pundits because of the possibility of backdoors having been plugged in. There is an older version, still available, marked as safe. There is a project that was spun off, where development is still going on - or so it was last time I checked. The whole story is on Wikipedia.
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May 13, 2019, 11:53:07 PM

Was someone able to break TrueCrypt? It was discontinued in 2014 but it is used to this day. It is said that not even the NSA can decrypt it.
As far as I know, TrueCrypt was never broken, but the exact circumstances of its abandonment remain unclear. The latest version that was published was marked as a no-no by pundits because of the possibility of backdoors having been plugged in. There is an older version, still available, marked as safe. There is a project that was spun off, where development is still going on - or so it was last time I checked. The whole story is on Wikipedia.

I remember in the early days it was suggested to encrypt the wallet.dat with TrueCrypt. I find this interesting in the light of the new rumors about the real identity of SN.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/E4M
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May 13, 2019, 11:58:18 PM

et tu, brute?

 Cry

Indeed. They were either free or had negligible purchase costs so there was nothing on the line really. But I sure as shit did not expect them to brush the level they did or die with such conviction. The whole thing felt like an inter dimensional adjunct to my regular BTC business.

I'm fine if they don't come back. It's just more time. We'll see how manic things get in the next year or two. If they do run for the stars I'm offloading and not looking back.


With altcoin I lost x10! This is regrettable ...
I am waiting for some increase, and then well, fuck them

I made a good profit relentlessly shorting BCH in 2018.  Tongue  Tongue
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lose: unfind ... loose: untight


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May 13, 2019, 11:59:10 PM

Ah, 8000 my old sausage, how are you doing? It's been a long time. Cheesy


Watch $8600. If you follow PnF the point and figure charts say we could go parabolic to $50K+ if we get a weekly close above $8600 on Bitstamp.

Interesting. I'm watching 8500 simply as the last rally and resistance point from the 6000 level.

I need to go back and study 2013

Good year. I remember it fondly.
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May 14, 2019, 12:01:55 AM
Last edit: May 14, 2019, 12:14:25 AM by jbreher

I think the waves will continue until maybe November of December... then is will break UP.



Or well, will see...

So Phil I need an update, clarify for me wtf is happening because this latest move is quite a surprise to me.    We broke down from your chart before this 8100 now but I'd appreciate an update on a simple theme like this because I think the biggest moves come from the simple takes that catch the majority of the market trend.   Is 8000 a good call for this price move to rest now

Sadly my charts are out of whack as the site went down, I'll transfer or redraw them I guess but still I'm off any regular perspective

Quote
We’re up nearly 60% in the last 30 days
Quiet storm, what happened?  I still dont know Shocked

Bitcoin happened. It's ... A Thing.
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Still a manic miner


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May 14, 2019, 12:02:18 AM

One big ass sell will not change the trend. Nice wick. Thanks for your coins. Keep moving...
jbreher
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May 14, 2019, 12:03:20 AM

One Question

when 5-digits

When 12344? (or was it 12688 or smth?)
jbreher
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May 14, 2019, 12:06:59 AM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Oy vey - where to start?

Obviously, if UK GDP were to be valued in Bitcoin, then Bitcoin would rise in price in order to be able to accommodate UK money supply in the allotted number of Bitcoin units.

As an aside - you might satisfy yourself with Bitcoin denominated credits. I think most here already understand the folly of such acceptance.
jbreher
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May 14, 2019, 12:09:58 AM

If you throw in a century of economic growth then 9 digits could be plausible as well as follows:

Suppose Bitcoin absorbs 10% of M2 and the M2 growth rate of roughly 4% persists for a century.

That would imply 1.04^100 = 50.5x growth over 100 years.

That would bring the 10% estimate from 3m per Bitcoin to 151.5m per Bitcoin 100 years from now.


These kind of valuations are highly flawed. If bitcoin ever absorbed even a fraction of "M2" growth it would be largely as a pure unit of account, not a store of value. In other words you'd (by definition of M2) be talking about BTC denominated bank deposit accounts and money market funds and all kinds of other fractional reserve derivatives.

Use of bitcoin as a unit of account is something hodlers tend to ignore. If bitcoin ever became a currency we would not be exchanging actual bitcoins, but bitcoin denominated credit just as we use arbitrary units of credit today. So you can't just divide random incumbent money supply figures by 21 million to get a price for a future BTC. Since it's limited in supply it's an asset and will always be an asset.

If you denominate, say, UK GDP in bitcoin then it's around 0.3 Trillion BTC. The GDP can be 0.3 Trillion BTC even though there are not that many bitcoins in existence.


Maybe flawed, but only partially. If bonds are issued, then this is not a unit of account, but an actual asset that contributes to the overall size of assets, is it not?
Bond market in US is 82tril, global-above 100 tril.
I can redeem a bond and get currency/cash.

Analogy: water in the lake is still a part of water present on planet earth.

In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think).

Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain.

People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms.

So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset.


...which -- of course -- is why nobody already conversant with the topic will accept your 'paper Bitcoin'.
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May 14, 2019, 12:28:36 AM

But, what do those numbers you posted (2-2-10-4) mean? Just curious...

Play Railroad Tycoon, you'll learn. Cheesy



Great Series of games BTW.


Damn I miss that game. Goes great with a bag of weed (as do most things).

One of my favorite aspects was trying to bankrupt the other tycoons by manipulating their stock prices.

If you had enough capital to buy and crash the price of a competitor's stock, you could leave them forever bankrupt, unable to dig themselves out of massive debt. Fun!

The economic module of the game was fantastic. I usually played only as investor manipulating mine and all other stocks, trying to bankrupt the other rich guys, while having quit as a manager of the company and letting the game automanage it... Cool

Playing the market was a great part that I had totally forgot about!
OK, I have to dig it out now. I think I only have RT3 left so it'll have to be that one.
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May 14, 2019, 12:30:38 AM


In theory it works like that but in practice it doesn't. Even in the Bretton Woods system there was a "notional" convertibility to gold. But there was still far more currency in circulation than there was gold in existence. The value of gold was simply pegged to a multiple of the dollar ($30 I think).

Lets say you had 1 bitcoin and you issued a bitcoin backed bond. You now have 2 effective bitcoins in circulation - the real one and the bond. The original doesn't cease to exist just because it's backing a bond. Similarly, crypto exchanges inflate the bitcoin money supply. We deposit our bitcoin on exchanges and they create these "synthetic" bitcoins for us to trade. Meanwhile the deposited BTC are still in circulation on the blockchain.

People tend to think that they're "locked away" and out of circulation, but they're not. The new synthetic ones are added to the supply. The exchange can do what they want with the deposits - it just depends on the contractural terms.

So the "21 million" limit is not really a limit. The bitcoin supply can be expanded in an unlimited way and will be simply through its use as a pure unit of account, same as any other asset.


That does not make sense... you just said, one is the REAL Bitcoin the other is a BOND (FAKE), there will only be one BTC ever appearing on the blockchain... also, slightly less than 21M in circulation.

What you do in your closed system will only be in it's closed system with the participants involved, be it exchanges/coinbase to coinbase transaction etc.

At the end of the day, 21M is still the limit, no matter what you want to peg it against!...
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May 14, 2019, 12:31:44 AM

But, what do those numbers you posted (2-2-10-4) mean? Just curious...

Play Railroad Tycoon, you'll learn. Cheesy



Great Series of games BTW.


Damn I miss that game. Goes great with a bag of weed (as do most things).

One of my favorite aspects was trying to bankrupt the other tycoons by manipulating their stock prices.

If you had enough capital to buy and crash the price of a competitor's stock, you could leave them forever bankrupt, unable to dig themselves out of massive debt. Fun!

What about Transport Tycoon... That what so far advance for it time!.. I remember the longer you played the slower it got!

The economic module of the game was fantastic. I usually played only as investor manipulating mine and all other stocks, trying to bankrupt the other rich guys, while having quit as a manager of the company and letting the game automanage it... Cool

Playing the market was a great part that I had totally forgot about!
OK, I have to dig it out now. I think I only have RT3 left so it'll have to be that one.

Anyone remember Transport Tycoon?... It was so far advance for its time. I remembered the longer you played the slower it got!.. Those super fast Pentiums was no match...
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May 14, 2019, 12:53:30 AM

I would think, however, that such derivative bitcoins would be limited in number (maybe 3-10 times more, but not 100-1000 times more).

Have a look at the BTC trading volume on coinmarketcap and compare it with the blockchain movements for the day. You might get a fright. BTC denominated off-chain trades in derivative bitcoin will probably outnumber actual BTC by hundreds of thousands if not millions.

XD
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