Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jojo69]

I remember a video of Ari Vatanen in Pikes Peak, the whole video is good, but the minute 3.28 driving with one hand and the sun in the face, spectacular, after the minute 3.58 in the curve sliding to the edge of the precipice, impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TKgeCQGu_ug

When they paved the last of it I considered it a crime against humanity.  When I am in charge, heads will roll.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NnmkeyraRc

[jojo69]

Anyone knows about RoseCactus? We are now over the price in which he started to feel sad and whinney... maybe he kept hodling (or rebought what he sold) and can now come back from his hidding place?

He was having other problems.  Also, he really beat himself up for missing the top.

I sincerely hope for his eventual return, but we should be emotionally prepared for his continued absence.

[gentlemand]

He was having other problems.  Also, he really beat himself up for missing the top.

I sincerely hope for his eventual return, but we should be emotionally prepared for his continued absence.

I couldn't quite figure out what was going on there, whether it was quasi ironic or not. You'd think someone who'd been around that long would be unphased by the same thing panning out again. Then again who am I to guess anyone else's triggers?

[xhomerx10]

Hey! What's going on!

 Some sort of FOMO event.

Where tha 10K-aka-5dig HAT ??

Support HAT worked fine.....

Gotta get into that more

 I will try my best to get one made before 10k comes around but.... it's happening pretty quickly!

[VB1001]

^

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-journey-10000-bitcoin/

If the same thing happens, you only have 2 days.

[realsteelboy]

helso - olseh
realsteelboy - steelboy
there's a newish system for recovering accounts
here at WO we leave no man behind

Oh really, what’s that?

I think it's explained here.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5089777.0

Ah, yeah I tried that but didn’t have any keys that proved anything. With a little bit of detective work I’m sure it could be solved if Theymos wanted to look into it but understandably isn’t going to spend that kind of time on every jacked account.

Tried to buy it back off the hacker but no answer to any of my messages.

Oh well, c’est la vie. Bitcoin is flying so I have other things keeping my spirits up

Theymos delegated account recoveries to a new team to speed things up.

We've streamlined our processes, and Cyrus has put together a team for handling these cases, so account recoveries should now be handled at a reasonable pace again. Additionally, we will be somewhat more lenient in recovering accounts without signatures, though signatures often will still be required, depending on the situation.

If you have a locked account, send a new email to the @bitcointalk.org email address given in your "account locked" error message. (The email address changed a few weeks ago.) If you were previously sending messages to me or Cyrus, send a new email to the address here. We might try to go through the backlog of old-process recoveries in the future, but for now you should send new messages.

Sorry for the delay!

Interesting. Will make an enquiry over the next few days. Any of you ever take part in a group but I set up. If you did and still have any reference to it in messages please let me know. Probably a long shot. I suppose if I bought a casascius with my original account and could prove I still have it? Actually I must have some emails from Mike somewhere

[jojo69]

I couldn't quite figure out what was going on there, whether it was quasi ironic or not. You'd think someone who'd been around that long would be unphased by the same thing panning out again. Then again who am I to guess anyone else's triggers?

I'm totally reading between the lines here, I have no actual knowledge, totally guessing;

My impression is that he over invested, FOMOing in with assets necessary for life support, then held through the peak.

I don't know if his losses were purely of unrealized gains or of the actual sort, but regardless it hit him pretty hard as he had to sell to make RL commitments.

About this time he also started experiencing health problems.  I am totally speculating here, but would not be at all surprised if these were exacerbated by his level of stress and worry over the above.

It is my earnest hope that he was able to reclaim at least part of his position near the lows, but if that were so one would think that we would have seen him by now...



I miss him a lot

[SuperPandaBear]

Now that we've crossed the $9,000 barrier, why not take a look at the McAfee model again:

https://i.postimg.cc/g2Js0vMZ/mcaffeeeeeeeee.png

Assuming another %600-ish parabolic increase, it would put us around $65,000, which would mean McAfee may not have to heat his own dick as the model would be back on track. Consider that we went above %245 of the mean prediction line at the $20k peak, so there's a big margin of error. If moon and stars align (or ETF and halving) who knows. We'll have to find out in the next episode of McAfee Balls Z.

Edit: Actually funny how we just broke the nonlinear regression curve and given past precedents, the potential for a bullrun is around $60k

https://i.postimg.cc/mhf7bH60/median.png

Maybe McAfee can keep his manhood after all. Hang on tight.

In addition to this, I want to add that Shelby is lately considering McAfee's model as a potential good candidate for 2020's price prediction, and it would look like this:

https://i.imgur.com/dx9G5k8.png

I can't imagine how this thread would look like if McAfee ends up being anywhere near right. Bitcointalk would probably collapse due too much traffic.

Awesome. Where can I find the source for the first pic?

[realsteelboy]

The Highs and Lows of Bitcoin can sweep some people off their feet.

I have had dark days but the good ones have been worth the pain.  

[Whaleagent]

The Highs and Lows of Bitcoin can sweep some people off their feet.

I have had dark days but the good ones have been worth the pain.  

True, however it's time for people to feel some FOMO again, this recent move certainly convinced the few non-believers left. The weekly chart will look really strong after today, so is the monthly chart.

[_javier_]

Golden cross on 3D chart..  MA50 crossing MA 100

last time it happened.. Oct 13, 2016. Price went from 250 usd to 500usd two weeks later. (2x)

This time this cross is much more evident, with a very high angle. Moonshot incoming?

Go BTC, go!

[xhomerx10]

^

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-journey-10000-bitcoin/

If the same thing happens, you only have 2 days.

 Dammit!  I'm not going to be able to make one in time yet I somehow can't help smiling about that  

[jojo69]

Vegeta now acting as support

[pereira4]

You can't send physical metals from Africa to Australia in 10 minutes.

Just like you can't send a house, car, boat, or drumstick over a phone line.  You can't send ANYTHING of value over a phone line.  If something can be sent over a phone line, it doesn't mean it's worth something, it means it's WORTHLESS.

Well, your messages on this forum are sent over the same medium as Bitcoins are sent... by this same train of thought aren't your forum posts then worthless?

Now that we've crossed the $9,000 barrier, why not take a look at the McAfee model again:



Assuming another %600-ish parabolic increase, it would put us around $65,000, which would mean McAfee may not have to heat his own dick as the model would be back on track. Consider that we went above %245 of the mean prediction line at the $20k peak, so there's a big margin of error. If moon and stars align (or ETF and halving) who knows. We'll have to find out in the next episode of McAfee Balls Z.

Edit: Actually funny how we just broke the nonlinear regression curve and given past precedents, the potential for a bullrun is around $60k



Maybe McAfee can keep his manhood after all. Hang on tight.

In addition to this, I want to add that Shelby is lately considering McAfee's model as a potential good candidate for 2020's price prediction, and it would look like this:



I can't imagine how this thread would look like if McAfee ends up being anywhere near right. Bitcointalk would probably collapse due too much traffic.

Awesome. Where can I find the source for the first pic?

This very nice website:

https://bircoin.top/

Very handy, you can add in your own values and create your own curves. Considering the original McAfee model was $500k, we would need to be around $32k. Still a long way to go until Dec 31 2020.

[bitserve]

I couldn't quite figure out what was going on there, whether it was quasi ironic or not. You'd think someone who'd been around that long would be unphased by the same thing panning out again. Then again who am I to guess anyone else's triggers?

I'm totally reading between the lines here, I have no actual knowledge, totally guessing;

My impression is that he over invested, FOMOing in with assets necessary for life support, then held through the peak.

I don't know if his losses were purely of unrealized gains or of the actual sort, but regardless it hit him pretty hard as he had to sell to make RL commitments.

About this time he also started experiencing health problems.  I am totally speculating here, but would not be at all surprised if these were exacerbated by his level of stress and worry over the above.

It is my earnest hope that he was able to reclaim at least part of his position near the lows, but if that were so one would think that we would have seen him by now...



I miss him a lot

Didn't know about the health issues. Also I always assumed he was more concerned about the unrealized gains being lost (what he once referenced as missing a life changing opportunity) than actual loses from initial investment. We all were impacted by missing the top and suffering the long and deep bear market... he seemed to be particularly affected at the end though.

Yeah, also miss him a lot, he was fun and even when he was not in his best mood he was still enjoyable and a bright poster. Hope all is good with him and some day reappears as if nothing happened.

I wonder how many good people we will lose over the years on the road to higher highs....

[HairyMaclairy]

The new Supra sucks

It hasn’t even been released yet.  Can we really say that?

How about the Alpine?

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/nic__carter/status/1140303153616818177

Everyone can not say the same, 2009/2019, 1BTC = 1BTC 2009/2019

Nice graphic.

[Biodom]

9.3k and we are still 1 year and 3 months away from the bullrun  

My only minor concern if we go up too much, too fast is a massive dump. I’d like the usual cycle to play out as it is supposed to, slowly climbing before a parabolic rise.

Aimed at HM - Is the fractal still likely to be followed even if we go up rapidly now, as in are we likely to hit 6 figures in 2021 even if we go up rapidly now/early?

It’s just a guide.  And the guide is telling us right now we are high, hot and fast.   But the numbers are not unreasonable - we are still below our target price for the halvening.  So no, I don’t think the fractal has been broken at a macro level.  

It is reasonable to expect some pullback in July and August.  But I sure as hell would not short this market or try to sell local tops.

Well, right now I am of the opposite opinion. Simply put, this cycle will play out differently, but let's wait for July/August.
There is no law that says that we cannot peak earlier since mass participation could overwhelm the current absence of halving effects.
Some people keep talking about long bear cycles as well (that might follow the halving of 2020 or 2024).
My last buy (apart from regular smaller monthly DCAs) was at $4200. Leverage is not for me due to prior experience with margin in stocks.
One prediction, though: if stock markets will go down hard (which I don't expect yet), bitcoin will not be able to resist the trend, halving or not.

[nutildah]

Volume has been pretty weak in this run up.

Sorry to spoil the fun but I think we're headed back down to $8,000 - $8,500.

[Ibian]

Volume has been pretty weak in this run up.

Sorry to spoil the fun but I think we're headed back down to $8,000 - $8,500.

Low volume means the real fun has not begun.

On which note I can't help notice we are still below 10k. Still bored.