Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

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[gembitz]

Did we had a senate hearing for Libra and the consequent shitshow in 2017?
I missed the US president tweets about BTC in 2015...

/ironic mode off

Libra futures going to shit?    lol

[gembitz]

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

Irrelevant.  

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

Not really, these idiot traders like to paint the chart for fun. It's not organic, it's manipulated up and down.

Maybe, but more likely institutional money with its eyes on Bitcoin thinks Libra is 'good' for BTC, so the onslaught against it (which is understandable from a nervous established system) looks 'bad' for BTC in their eyes.  In fact Libra has little to do with Bitcoin, as Libra isn't really an investment, whereas Bitcoin patently is.

Decentralised hard money is where it's at, not a new corporate run money system based upon a stablecoin tethered to fiat.  What's the point: When the shit hits the fan, smart money wants hard money. Bitcoin is hard, uncensorable money.

It will win. Every. Fucking. Time.

Libra-Tether pre-sales backed by tether!!..what could go wrong? lmfaooo

[JayJuanGee]

An interesting graph of a strange correlation between the drop in btc dominance in 2017 and searches in google:
https://www.docdroid.net/dg7lL8W/bitcoin-stealth-phase.pdf#page=4

Data suggest Bitcoin will continue to lead the current cryptocurrency industry bull market. When
more public interest starts to pick up, it may be optional to diverse [divest] Bitcoin profits into other cryptocurrencies.

Very debatable (at least).
I am also curious on whether we would peak somewhere between now and 70ies OR go all the way to 90-95% in dominance.
The major alt is faltering both economically and ideologically.
In fact, VB recently proposed a strange hybrid of eth with "the fork".
My conclusion: eth chain is blowing up in size and there are still years to go before they might even approach a solution.
The size is already not manageable for a full node/regular user.

Conclusion: the time to divest into current alts is probably never, but i don't dismiss beyond the horizon newcomers yet.

On another side note that is more about BTC specifically, Biodom, when we were in the $10k-ish prices, weren't you waiting to buy more BTC in the $6.6k to $9k arena? So perhaps you put off buying some BTC on that particular price swing?  How's that portion of your plan that speculates waiting for lower lows playing out?
<snip>

Still waiting, but I am fine with not buying and just hodling.

I suppose that could work.

Whatever floats your boat.

Surely each of us has to find a kind of balance that makes us comfortable.

Sometimes when the price is swinging back and forth, then I get a little irritated in terms of wanting to move my buy/sell orders in order that they will get triggered.. but if the price is moving continuously in one direction, I have no need to worry because a decent amount of orders are getting triggered (in the current price actions, my buy orders are getting sufficiently triggered), so if the price is moving a lot in one direction, sometimes there can be some second guessing about whether it could be prudent to space out the orders more in order to take more advantage of such rapid movement.. .. yet I had gotten burned too many times in  the past by trying to play around with my orders in that regard, so I just learned to live with the system that I already established.. and not to stress too much about the intensity of the movement. 

Of course, if BTC prices were to get into the sub $5k arena, then I am surely going to have to consider whether I need to restructure some of my lower buy orders in order that I do not run out of money for buying... .. sub $5k does seem a bit unlikely but you never know.

[Ludwig Von]

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".  After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

[JayJuanGee]

... but more likely jbreher ...

What The Fuck -- exactly -- are you insinuating, you yammering diarrhea-mouth?

y u  gett so worked up bout lil ting-il-lieees?

Jeez, jbearbreher!!  

Well, if'n you're going to cast aspersions, you oughta be truthful, and ready to back up your gross invective. Anything less would be uncivilized.

Largely, I think that I am fair enough to you, jbreher.

No. Your attempt to deflect is forestalled. You are not wiggling out on this.

You made a veiled accusation that I was in the employ of the US Government in order to derail any cryptocurrency progress. You tried to say it, while still giving yourself an out should you be called on it. Go fuck yourself, JJG.

We agree to disagree.

I believe that I am way too nice  to you, and you believe that I am a BIG MEANIE.

I disagree.

What'd I tell you guys

Zero. You told us zero.

HaHAHAHJAHAHA

gotta agree with you on that part.

Can we make up now, jbreher?

[Hueristic]

Well, got verified at paxos in a day but i'll be damned if i gonna sell shit at these prices!

[prophetx]

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".  After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

What do u mean 10% a year?

[Majormax]

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

Irrelevant. 

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

Not now rhyming with 2015. That one has been broken.

It might be good news, but as I said before a few months ago,  a too-strong rally at this stage might be bad news for the future. The reason is that exponential rises always trap a lot of late buyers at various levels on the way up, and it often means they are shaken out over a long bear phase. The shape of the chart puts new interim lows back on the map ,  and could delay any future ATH by some time.

[Majormax]

...
Of course, if BTC prices were to get into the sub $5k arena, then I am surely going to have to consider whether I need to restructure some of my lower buy orders in order that I do not run out of money for buying... .. sub $5k does seem a bit unlikely but you never know.

There is some good support at 6.4k , so sub 5k is not likely (and at least not until the middle of next year).

If it gets under 5K , probably best to not look for a year or two. That would be the return of winter.  

Hopefully new support levels can be gradually built up in the next month or so. A new support above 7k would be a positive. Time will tell.

[El duderino_]

Just home from an exhausting evening so Will enter the HODLsleep very soon-ish

Though i’m curious where we going at, more looking like HM is getting what he’s predicting ....

Maybe good the baby bull market is taking its time to mature

Good night fellow WO’s

[jbreher]

... but more likely jbreher ...

What The Fuck -- exactly -- are you insinuating, you yammering diarrhea-mouth?

y u  gett so worked up bout lil ting-il-lieees?

Jeez, jbearbreher!!  

Well, if'n you're going to cast aspersions, you oughta be truthful, and ready to back up your gross invective. Anything less would be uncivilized.

Largely, I think that I am fair enough to you, jbreher.

No. Your attempt to deflect is forestalled. You are not wiggling out on this.

You made a veiled accusation that I was in the employ of the US Government in order to derail any cryptocurrency progress. You tried to say it, while still giving yourself an out should you be called on it. Go fuck yourself, JJG.

We agree to disagree.

I believe that I am way too nice  to you, and you believe that I am a BIG MEANIE.

Not a big meanie, but someone who will stoop so low as to intentionally mis-characterize others in order to try to claim some sort of 'victory'.

What'd I tell you guys

Zero. You told us zero.

HaHAHAHJAHAHA

gotta agree with you on that part.

Can we make up now, jbreher?

Sure. I can separate my vehemence in deflecting your lies about me from any sort of other personal interaction.

::mwah!::

Now go fuck yourself.

[Elwar]

[Lambie Slayer]

We are getting closer to where I would like to deploy my last fiat ammo to be all in for the mega run of the next few years.

I have been pretty sure we would test the 8-9 range and I would think 6k would be the lower limit of what bears and panic selling newbs can accomplish. Guess I have to figure out where to put buy orders now. Honestly this right now isnt a terrible place to buy some, but Im just not there yet.

The only way we were getting to 100k this summer was if everyone hodled like a champ, but obviously we ran out of newbs   and some hodlers couldnt resist taking some profits. Cant blame em and this was always the likley to be the
case imo.

I look forward to the day when I can post relentlessly bullish hodler propaganda for several years straight. I notice since I went short term bearish my merit inflows have been decimated


TLDR; this is all healthy and the bull market is still 100 percent intact, even if I think we are going down more.


@Cryptoniumtard, this is a decent time to invest some of your semen drinking income if you have any extra money after buying your food and aids medicine.

[Hueristic]

Sure. I can separate my vehemence in deflecting your lies about me from any sort of other personal interaction.

::mwah!::

Now go fuck yourself.

Is it thursday already?

It no werk main.

[Lambie Slayer]

 https://techcrunch.com/2019/07/16/libra-in-messenger-whatsapp/

Shitcoin scammers gonna scam. 

"Marcus also didn’t clearly answer Senator Toomey’s question of why the Libra Association is considered a not-for-profit organization if it will pay out interest to members."

[JayJuanGee]

Well I did my part guys. Bought a whopping 0.1BTC.
That should stop the rot.

Wishful thinking and delusions of grandeur.

Hey.. .do what you can do.

I think that several of us might be playing around with those kinds of ongoing small numbers that also can add up to a lot of value in the process of stacking.

I recall in about mid-to-late 2015, I was setting up my various buy and sell orders, and even playing around with $5 increments and I could only authorize myself to sell very small amounts, because some of my BTC portfolio had buy amounts that averaged something like $500 which was way more than the then BTC price of about mid $250-ish... so I authorized myself to sell such small amounts that were based on purchases that I had made that were sufficiently below the then BTC price.

My then girlfriend would ridicule me on a regular basis that I was wasting my time with such small amounts of selling and then subsequently buying.   I kept telling her that it adds up, and really I am practicing and also generating a kind of insurance that is based on several calculations that include the size of my total BTC portfolio and also how much I make on paper when the price goes up .. but in the end, the goal was to both provide downside insurance and to stack sats (even though such "stacking sats" expression was not then in vogue).

Yes, and even after my laddered sell/buy apprentiship I kept being careful not to put the stack at risk and also being happy with as I call it, "Dust collecting".  After all, it makes 10% or something like that over a year... .

What do u mean 10% a year?

I don't mean to answer for Ludwig Von, but I believe that I understand what he meant by 10% a year.

Ultimately one of the most common occurrences with bitcoin is that it continues to be volatile to both the upside and the downside, so people who ladder trades tend to be able to stack sats, which can rise to the level of increasing the number of your bitcoins in the neighborhood of 10% per year.. assuming a kind of volatility and assuming that when the price goes up and down that you are measuring, more or less from the same price points during time 1 and time 2.

Of course, these kinds of measurements might need to be averaged over several years because it could take a few years for bitcoin to return to a price point that it was a few years earlier.  Also, if the BTC price goes down, then your value in dollars would likely be higher, but you would also have more BTC, and if the price of BTC goes up you would have more value in dollars because of price appreciation, however, if you engage in a relatively successful laddering, you would have accumulated more BTC overall, since in some manners, you would be attempting to measure your wealth in the amount of BTC that you would be able to accumulate at various price points, even though there remains a bit of a moving target in the measuring, like I already mentioned in terms of how long it might take for BTC prices to return to earlier price points.

Now, if you are merely gambling with your BTC stash or trying to spout out that you can make more money by trying to time the market (as you seem to be describing yourself as able to do.. and likely wrongly, because you come off as a fucking FUD spreading bearass troll), then in theory you might be suggesting that you could make way more money, but in practice, the vast majority of normal people have difficulties either timing the market or being able to meaningfully make money by trying to time the market.

Laddering can be a more assured mechanism to stack sats, whether you are able to achieve 10% in a year or if you might end up with much more modest results.. depending on some of the systematic ways that the laddering might be set up.. in terms of intervals and/or quantities.

Personally, I doubt that I make anything near 10% in a year, and likely my averages would be around 3% to 5% per year depending on how much price movement (especially back and forth) happens during any year and even maybe averaging over several years might give a better kind of overall indication regarding earning performance, consistency of performance or if such laddering might provide some other kind of value beyond mere returns, but instead providing a kind of peace of mind (which tends to be my main reason for doing it) in regards to being better able to deal with what seems to be near inevitable ongoing BTC price volatility.

[JayJuanGee]

What does the 2017 vs 2019 one look like now?

Irrelevant.  

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

Not now rhyming with 2015. That one has been broken.

It might be good news, but as I said before a few months ago,  a too-strong rally at this stage might be bad news for the future. The reason is that exponential rises always trap a lot of late buyers at various levels on the way up, and it often means they are shaken out over a long bear phase. The shape of the chart puts new interim lows back on the map ,  and could delay any future ATH by some time.

I know that I sufficiently make fun of folks for the battle of the fractal, but I would suggest that we are in a kind of correction that seems sufficiently within the parameters of the early 2016 correction after $500.. and thereby, after floating around in this neighborhood, there could be another effort to breach $13,880 in a few months.. but hey, that might be me, and you surely seem to be speculating about a much deeper and longer correction from here, and surely today's action, including our so far inability to recover does seem to support such a possible situation.

...
Of course, if BTC prices were to get into the sub $5k arena, then I am surely going to have to consider whether I need to restructure some of my lower buy orders in order that I do not run out of money for buying... .. sub $5k does seem a bit unlikely but you never know.

There is some good support at 6.4k , so sub 5k is not likely (and at least not until the middle of next year).

If it gets under 5K , probably best to not look for a year or two. That would be the return of winter.  

Hopefully new support levels can be gradually built up in the next month or so. A new support above 7k would be a positive. Time will tell.

Sure, fair enough.

Without really battling you about numbers, it can be quite difficult to get an assessment while we are still seeming to be in a downward trajectory without any meaningful bounce...

I am thinking that surely it is going to take some time to break below $8k to even bring the breaking of $7k into question... but whatever, I would feel a lot better to see whether we get any kind of meaningful recovery or bounce in the next few days and maybe within a week... so otherwise, I likely agree with you that a bounce anywhere above $7k would be bullish, too... even though I don't seem to be as optimistic as you that $7k is so easily reached.. but with the amount of plunge today, even I might start to question myself.. to the extent that any of my predictions matter anyhow, because I tend to follow the same buying on the way down behavior even if my opinion might change a bit regarding likelihood of down or up.

[JayJuanGee]

... but more likely jbreher ...

What The Fuck -- exactly -- are you insinuating, you yammering diarrhea-mouth?

y u  gett so worked up bout lil ting-il-lieees?

Jeez, jbearbreher!!  

Well, if'n you're going to cast aspersions, you oughta be truthful, and ready to back up your gross invective. Anything less would be uncivilized.

Largely, I think that I am fair enough to you, jbreher.

No. Your attempt to deflect is forestalled. You are not wiggling out on this.

You made a veiled accusation that I was in the employ of the US Government in order to derail any cryptocurrency progress. You tried to say it, while still giving yourself an out should you be called on it. Go fuck yourself, JJG.

We agree to disagree.

I believe that I am way too nice  to you, and you believe that I am a BIG MEANIE.

Not a big meanie, but someone who will stoop so low as to intentionally mis-characterize others in order to try to claim some sort of 'victory'.

I think that you are reading way the fucking too much into the matter.

I have already defended my point more than what is necessary, so in that regard, I stick with my already established assertion...

Me = normal and nice guy and not a meanie

Jbreher = possible govt agent for a variety of reasons already fairly and sufficiently elaborated (ad nauseam)

 

What'd I tell you guys

Zero. You told us zero.

HaHAHAHJAHAHA

gotta agree with you on that part.

Can we make up now, jbreher?

Sure. I can separate my vehemence in deflecting your lies about me from any sort of other personal interaction.

::mwah!::

Now go fuck yourself.

In spite of your very kind words, above, I still believe that your suggested objective ability to mutually hate upon proudhon is overly embedded with disgruntled sentiments in my direction, but whatever, I am not exactly happy with you either, or your various supposed genuine support of bcash variants.. so in that regard, it might be a bit difficult to become too close in the buddy buddy arena when each of us having our reasons to be concerned (or scaredie cat) about dee udder.

Sure. I can separate my vehemence in deflecting your lies about me from any sort of other personal interaction.

::mwah!::

Now go fuck yourself.

Is it thursday already?

Stop getting so god damned prematurely excited about the possibility of thursday, Hueristic.

Focus ur selfie, focus.   We have more important battles right in front of us at this exact moment, including the possible imminent death of bitcoin.... seriously, this time..  

[illyiller]

It's normally a four year cycle, so we aren't in 2017, but we might be rhyming with 2015...

"Normally"

It's only been 10 years.

It seems obvious based on the monthly trend and broken levels that we're not replaying 2015. The window closed on that a long time ago. The closest parallel here IMO is summer 2016.