Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kellrobinson]

I looked at the bunch of charts this afternoon and PlanB/digitalik one's continue to impress.
The question is: if this is basically a co-integrated chart where btc is almost pre-destined to go to about 55-100K after this halving, then when to expect the rally?
Last time we were lagging in June/July 2016 at $500-700/btc when "theoretical" value jumped to about $4K.
It probably represented the best entry point as far as short term risk/reward ratio looking backwards a few years.
However, since now these charts were wildly circulated, one can expect a run that might peak actually at the halving or shortly thereafter, like in Nov-Dec 2020 instead of Nov-Dec 2021?
Hoping that price stays flat and there would be some instrument to buy btc in the retirement account. Don't want to "invest" in anything else there at the moment.

If blow-off tops continue the phase relationship established with the last two halving cycles. then we're looking at late 2021.
See my post, "secular and cyclic model with forecast"
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198154.msg52962479#msg52962479

[1714151116]

1714151116

[JayJuanGee]

Holy fuck....  ~Money~  If you have been around Bitcoin since May 2013, and you still do not have one bitcoin, then you are likely to be fucked if we reach $100k, and if you currently do not have 1 BTC and you been around BTC for more than 6 years, I doubt that you are going to have 1BTC by the time that we reach $100k.  In other words, .... alright.. I won't say it... I am going to hold back the BIG meanie, at least temporarily.  

not that i had not earned or mined,  
i had mostly lost them, in wallets, exchanges, trusting (so called) friends,

I registered here in February 2014, but I had gotten into bitcoin in late November 2013 (right at the peak of that particular exponential growth period).  You registered here about 9 months before me, and BTC prices were nearly 80% less expensive when i got started in BTC.

Sure I looked at the then charts, and I did not go all into BTC at the top, I just started to invest at that time and continued to study BTC and to invest in it.

I lost a good number of BTC through various avenues, too, and not really much different from the ones that you listed, but I still have more than 60% of my BTC stash (at it's high point).  I know that none of us want to be scammed out of coins, but what I am also trying to say is that there's gotta be both learning and also some attempts to stash away some of the coins, no?  In such a way to accumulate some BTC in the end of the day.  Right?

investing in other things (cant name them here  )

You are talking about getting distracted by shitcoins, probably, no?

Shitcoins should only occupy a very small percentage of any prudent BTC investor's total crypto portfolio value.  I personally say less than 5%, yet I am somewhat tolerant of guys (or gal) who might choose to invest up to 20% because that level of extra risk taking is their choice.

currently i own a little, but if it reaches 100k, in next 20 month, i will be damned,

There seem to be pretty decent odds to that BTC could go to $100k in the next 12 to 26 months

but after that i think i will own few btc and wont have any problem with 100k  

Why are you saying that?  Are you changing some of your practices in regards to BTC or are you just expecting to have more cashflow after 20 months or so?

[STT]

Call me a skeptic, but seems a bit overly bearish to suggest that bitcoin is not going to break above old ATH until October 2024-ish.

Thats bullish not bearish, because 2024 is a fair way into the next decade and we are speculating that Bitcoin will be turning over doing well and we know the situation with FIAT is that they degrade vs the long term debt obligations made.    It will break that ATH and likely have the momentum to make a much higher one after that much time and settle after any profit taking above that previous ATH.
  It could also be taken as a positive as leaving a wider population of people multiple years to accumulate, get involved for the long term while noticing that BTC isnt going away making its longevity a continuing reason to hold it.    Achieving 20k by xmas on the other hand represents volatility and uncertainty because even if its a higher price it was massively unexpected by most, going that far that fast shows imbalance is there in an uncontrollable way almost.
  Far more people will drop BTC for a quick profit if its 20k by xmas or any short time, the alternatives will still be attractive and seemingly viable.   By 2024 with a strong BTC it will be in sharp contrast to people having lost alot of value in FIAT and there will be even less motivation to hold that certain ongoing loss.   I'll take the situation where BTC is a long term positive in the world for sure any day.

BTC is positive above 200 day average for the weekend but with maybe 9500 part of some triangle formation I dont think its moving much at the moment.

[Icygreen]

OK, i'd need some opinions on this prototype piece i experimentally fucked up, taking hours and days to take it this far.
Now i have got a last piece of ebony left, which will serve for the production blank, where all flaws of the protype should be eradicated.
This will serve the purpose of being a card protector for future texas hold'em games.

Looks very interesting. Is this carved in ebony by machine (CNC or laser) or by hand? 
Is you're criticism that the logo is not centered on the wood?  Maybe run another try on the back side?

[kurious]

^ it's back again?

[fillippone]

I looked at the bunch of charts this afternoon and PlanB/digitalik one's continue to impress.
The question is: if this is basically a co-integrated chart where btc is almost pre-destined to go to about 55-100K after this halving, then when to expect the rally?
Last time we were lagging in June/July 2016 at $500-700/btc when "theoretical" value jumped to about $4K.
It probably represented the best entry point as far as short term risk/reward ratio looking backwards a few years.
However, since now these charts were wildly circulated, one can expect a run that might peak actually at the halving or shortly thereafter, like in Nov-Dec 2020 instead of Nov-Dec 2021?
Hoping that price stays flat and there would be some instrument to buy btc in the retirement account. Don't want to "invest" in anything else there at the moment.

Very legitimate questions.
This means halving is pretty much still not priced. This contrast the fact that PlanB article is quite known, so markets should instead front run the halvening effect and actually make the price surge i na a positive feedback loop. This is why I expect the post halvening rally being quite anticipated this time.
On the opposite side, a failure for the SF to realise, would push BTC in a a very long crypto winter II.
 Anyway every piece of information about the SF model can be found in my thread 
Stock To Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity

[realr0ach]

Hello WO Bulls, how are you ?

Did you decide yet if you are going to fund our Crypto Mania Spark that we intend to recreate?

This is even worse than a JayJuanGee post.

[fillippone]

Rejoice!
Ms Lagarde wants to push the ECB in uncharted territory.
Mr. Draghi used monetary policy pushing to the extremes, but always wishing and respectful of the ECB mandate.
Ms Lagarde instead loves the mixture of monetary policy from the banks and fiscal policy from the states (IMF+ARGENTINA, recipe for disaster).

New head of ECB makes clear what's coming. “We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected,” said Lagarde. Make sure your savings are in #gold & not the #euro to protect your purchasing power from central bank currency debasement.

https://twitter.com/fgmr/status/1190338706080747520?s=21

Bullish Bitcoin

Today the president of the European Central Bank said that:

“We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected,” said Ms Lagarde. “I think that it is in this spirit that monetary policy has been decided by my predecessors and I think they made quite a beneficial choice.”

https://www.ft.com/content/eb8dae8c-fb14-11e9-a354-36acbbb0d9b6

[Last of the V8s]

archive of fillipp's ft article ^ https://archive.is/YiSz7



this woman needs a cap

edit um weird maybe not https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=432087004178603

[Raja_MBZ]

not that i had not earned or mined, 
i had mostly lost them, in wallets, exchanges, trusting (so called) friends,

I registered here in February 2014, but I had gotten into bitcoin in late November 2013 (right at the peak of that particular exponential growth period).  You registered here about 9 months before me, and BTC prices were nearly 80% less expensive when i got started in BTC.

Actually, at that time (and before that), Money and I were interested in something else... something very stupid:



*this is about erepublik.com*

We were stacking bazookas instead of bitcoin.

[Dabs]

Hello WO Bulls, how are you ?

Did you decide yet if you are going to fund our Crypto Mania Spark that we intend to recreate?

I'll volunteer to handle escrow. No funds transferred to you until the target is met before the stated deadline. That sounds fair.

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/zonephysics/status/1190328863571808257?s=21

Nice To go to sleep with

[Biodom]

“We should be happier to have a job than to have our savings protected,” said Lagarde.

Well, what about those who are 'out of the job' when they are of the retirement age?
They have nothing between them and the poor house, but their savings and some social programs.
What a pisser!

bullish for btc, though.

[Hueristic]

Does instant messaging over Lightning have killer application potential? The world needs censorship-resistant chatting and with Lightning, compensating the network for message relay comes naturally.

https://twitter.com/joostjgr/status/1190714028626251779

End-to-end encrypted, onion-routed, censorship-resistant, peer-to-peer instant messaging over Lightning

https://github.com/joostjager/whatsat
mother of fuck that's clever

A Lightning payment delivers the message, but no actual money is paid. Because the sender uses a random payment hash, the receiver is not able to settle the payment. The failure message that is returned to the sender serves as a delivery confirmation.

should have to pay though, to avoid spam, but still

Sounds like a possible flood attack vector? I'm just spitballing here as I have not read anything except what you posted so far.

[El duderino_]

r0ach be smart and take my advise, buy BTC the price is still extraordinary cheap.......

I only give you this good advise cause you humor me from time to time....

Now it’s time to....

V 8 fuels the tank
A mild but wet month the tenth
Time to HODLsleep

[Last of the V8s]

lol mic

Sounds like a possible flood attack vector? I'm just spitballing here as I have not read anything except what you posted so far.

That's exactly right, I was just editing as you posted. I'd need to look again, but seems a bit magical for no reason. ach well

[HairyMaclairy]

Some things change.  Some stay the same.

What are you trying to say, hairy mcbary?  Are you trying to say that we are largely "on track"?

Yeah pretty much.  We are back a bit higher than we should be so I wouldn’t expect much price action for the next year or so.  Death by boredom most probable.   We might retest $13k at the halvening.

The real action will start in early 2021.

On the accelerated model - I never agreed with it.  That model puts us at $15k now and $50k in January 2020.  It’s not going to happen.  

[Last of the V8s]

Soo boys are y'all saving up your art for the last minute?
Or we're just not so talented in that direction? I know I'm not.
I realise we have like 4/5 entrants.
Bob not going to give theymos a nice installation? You do the best memes man at least, c'mon on.
I feel like jojo's welding soemthing together as we speak...

[Hueristic]

OK, i'd need some opinions on this prototype piece i experimentally fucked up, taking hours and days to take it this far.
Now i have got a last piece of ebony left, which will serve for the production blank, where all flaws of the protype should be eradicated.
This will serve the purpose of being a card protector for future texas hold'em games.

When it's done add it to the Art thread and I'll +sM you there.

Some things change.  Some stay the same.

What are you trying to say, hairy mcbary?  Are you trying to say that we are largely "on track"?

Yeah pretty much.  We are back a bit higher than we should be so I wouldn’t expect much price action for the next year or so.  Death by boredom most probable.   We might retest $13k at the halvening.

The real action will start in early 2021.

On the accelerated model - I never agreed with it.  That model puts us at $15k now and $50k in January 2020.  It’s not going to happen.  

Don't be messing with me like this man!

Soo boys are y'all saving up your art for the last minute?
Or we're just not so talented in that direction? I know I'm not.
I realise we have like 4/5 entrants.
Bob not going to give theymos a nice installation? You do the best memes man at least, c'mon on.
I feel like jojo's welding something together as we speak...

I couldn't draw a straight line with a ruler.

[Dabs]

I soppose nothing is going to change, noone in our crew is willing to pull out Cryptos out of their Wallets and finance this job on their own. Here is what i suggest : 35% Upfront to cover the costs then 65% when we show results. This seems the most fair option available which is used in Business, agreed?

There's no need to pull out crypto, use fiat. The whole point of escrow is to do the job first before you get paid. You'll get 100% when the results meet whatever it was agreed upon. That's how I funded a bunch of altcoin ICOs, collected 200 to 400 BTC, did not pay them at all until the coin launched and was stable for a few days.

When there is a trade I escrow, coins are not released until buyer has confirmed they got what they paid for.

No one on this thread is going to agree to your proposal, but I'm sure they'll fund the escrow address if you say you'll accept and do it. You'll see the amount in any block explorer and at least you're sure the coins are there waiting for you to finish what you claim to do.