Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[jbreher]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198154.msg53272496#msg53272496
 

I find it rather comforting to learn that 'Column J' has stayed well within a two-order-of-magnitude range over the listed date range.

Err...

[1715151920]

1715151920

[jojo69]

Whatcha using to measure ESR? I bought one of those chinese micro-based component testers that are supposed to measure ESR, but it does not yield repeatable results. I'm back to desoldering, grafting together a jig, and measuring as DC resistance. Grr.

Same, some Won Hung Lo knockoff of that German guy's circuit.  I agree, not great for caps, AWESOME for sorting bins of random 3 legged silicon though!

I'm just shotgunning actually.  The scope is 30 years old.  If it's electrolytic it goes.  If it's Tantalum it gets a serious stink eye.



He knows if the DC's leaking

or if the ripple is to great

he knows if the electrolyte

is dissolving the copper trace


Sooooooooo

get Nichicon

or Panasonic

those no name brands just won't cut it

Capacitor Claus is coming toooooo townnnnnnnnn

[JayJuanGee]

those kinds of BTC price fluctuations (whether fake outs or not) did not trigger any of my BTC sell orders or my BTC buy orders, so my amount of BTC stayed the same, so the value of my BTC stayed the same, too when the price moved up and down.

I think I see the problem.

Maybe you can explain?

I was not expressing the matter as a problem.

Day 1 - BTC prices were at about $7,200.

Day 1.5 - BTC prices bounced to about $7,772.70.

Day 2 - BTC prices were at about $7,200.


I was just saying that my BTC were worth the same on Day 2 as they had been on Day 1 and none of my sell orders triggered.

So, there is not a problem.

We have already had some variation of this conversation, and in that older conversation, I was actually asserting that maybe you should not be trading BTC so frequently, especially if you are supposedly already relatively well off from bitcoin.  But, I understand that maybe I was presuming too much, and you want to continue to trade BTC on smaller price increments.  That is your personal choice, and it is discretionary regarding how you value your time versus how much money (whether bitcoin or dollars) that you may or may not be able to stack up by trading so frequently versus how much time it takes to manage your trades, especially if you are carrying them out manually.

Like I mentioned, I started trading when BTC prices were at about $250, and as BTC prices went further and further up, my intention was to structure my BTC trading increments to go up, not only in dollar terms but also in percentage terms.  When I first started, I wanted to get so fucking much practice that I actually just structured my trades to at least minimally be profitable by covering the trade fees and maybe a fraction of a percent of profit off of each trade.  I wanted so much practice that I set the increments small so that I was practicing a lot.  By the time BTC prices got into the 4 digits realm, I was feeling a whole hell of a lot better in terms of my having had learned through practice, and I felt that I did not need as much practice, and at various points as BTC's price went up, I restructured a larger and larger percentage of BTC price change would have to take place before my BTC orders were going to be triggered (whether selling or buying).

That restructuring took place all the way up to $20k, but when BTCV prices came back down to $3k I made the increments smaller and of course, when they went up to $14k they got larger again, and then smaller again upon coming down to $7k-ish.

This has neither been a set-in-stone system nor an exact predetermined tweaking of my system.  I have had to roll with the punches a bit and to try to figure out what kinds of time versus money management was comfortable for me, which includes considering how much time I am willing to tolerate resetting BTC buy/sell orders versus other ways that I want to spend my time versus how much money I felt that I would be making whether the increments are set smaller versus larger - even though I would assert that I have achieved ongoing movements towards increasing my increments larger and larger and larger as BTC prices are mostly UP as compared to when I first started, but I also have continued to feel less inclined to either practice trading BTC in the smaller increments or any kind of need to make extra money by spending my time in that way.

Of course, I have not completely removed myself from the BTC trading game, and perhaps my regular spreads seem to be quite easily in the more than 10% arena before they even start - and that is way the fuck more than I need to cover exchange fees, like when I started, and currently, I am thinking that even if BTC prices go up to $100k or more, I am likely going to end up trading BIGGER BTC price swings.. perhaps in the greater than 25% arena.   

But, yeah, these matters are not exactly set in stone, but I have ideas in my head about where I am and where I would prefer to go under various scenarios, whether the BTC price goes up or down, and of course if the BTC price continues to go up, as many of us tentatively suspect to be likely, then my trade increments are going to continue to get quite a bit larger, and I won't be giving too many shits about trading BTC at all, except perhaps on the REAL BIG price swings.

That is the goal, and it seems to have been working out pretty well so far in terms of causing greater and greater increments for me (which includes less actual time spent trading BTC), and let's see where we end up... hopefully UPward prices and even less trading.

Again, jbreher, what is the problem, exactly?  You are suggesting that I could have made money and I did not?  Fuck that.  I don't give too many shits about those small BTC price moves, and that is largely the punch line.  If you are suggesting something else, then please explain or let me know if there is something that I have not adequately described in order that you understand what I was saying in my earlier post.

[soxxx]

So what this basically tells me is that its likely that we will reach $13,900 on or near the day of the halving, and that this bull market is more than likely going to be similar to the last one, although it moved differently , it will come back to that line and go above and below it.

Yup that’s pretty much it. 

A $250,000-$300,000 Bitcoin makes sense. Bitcoin went from $5,000 to $20,0000 in a 2 month span. I would say its probable that we see Bitcoin go from $100,000 to $300,000 in a similar type of time span. $100k is obviously a significant number and when we do hit it, its going to be a huge story.

Glad I get to sit back and watch this drama play out.

[realr0ach]

The French are revolting.

It doesn't qualify as a revolt until the Jews are expelled.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, of course, there are still a lot of dumbasses who actually believe the bearwhale propaganda,

Which bearwhales are spreading propaganda?

I was not referring to any bearwhale(s) in particular.  You should have been able to understand my mean ing from my earlier post.

There is a general phenomenon that bearwhales employ both hard dumping and FUD spreading or whatever they can in order to attempt to get the BTC price to go down for as long and as far that is possible... and at some point they are not able to achieve such downward movement and have to start to go with UP because otherwise they are going to get REKKT if the momentum changes to up while they are trying to push down that is not working.

You need more specifics regarding the point(s) that I was attempting proclaim as a general phenomenon, or are you just trying to stir shit? 

By the way, you likely should realize from my referred-to post that I was not even attempting to make any kind of specific assessment regarding whether BTC prices were going to continue to go down in the short to medium term or not, because like usual, I have hardly any kind of meaningful clue that goes much beyond 50/50.

[VB1001]

Is Miner Capitulation A Real Thing? Does This Affect The Price of Bitcoin?

The Cost Associated with Bitcoin Mining

https://medium.com/digital-alpha-research/is-miner-capitulation-a-real-thing-does-this-affect-the-price-of-bitcoin-ac4516030f0?

I think the chart is 2018, but the content of the article on the cost of mining Bitcoin is current.

[JayJuanGee]

So what this basically tells me is that its likely that we will reach $13,900 on or near the day of the halving, and that this bull market is more than likely going to be similar to the last one, although it moved differently , it will come back to that line and go above and below it.

Yup that’s pretty much it.  

A $250,000-$300,000 Bitcoin makes sense. Bitcoin went from $5,000 to $20,0000 in a 2 month span. I would say its probable that we see Bitcoin go from $100,000 to $300,000 in a similar type of time span. $100k is obviously a significant number and when we do hit it, its going to be a huge story.

Glad I get to sit back and watch this drama play out.

You are just going to sit back?

Aren't you going to be nervous?

I was nervous when BTC went from $5k to $20k in mid-October 2017 to mid-December 2017.  

Of course, it was exciting and made me feel good, smart and rich, but it was also nerve racking.  

I suspect that if we get BTC price moves from $100k to $300k in anything close to a 2 months time frame (let's say in about late 2021 - could come sooner or could come later), I am anticipating that I am going to be quite nervous... even though I anticipate that I am still likely going to have a lot of bitcoins in such a scenario...  anticipate to be more than 70% of my current stash, I suspect.

[jbreher]

those kinds of BTC price fluctuations (whether fake outs or not) did not trigger any of my BTC sell orders or my BTC buy orders, so my amount of BTC stayed the same, so the value of my BTC stayed the same, too when the price moved up and down.

I think I see the problem.

Maybe you can explain?

Just poking you, given your previous proclivity to proclaim my price interval as preposterous.

We have already had some variation of this conversation, and in that older conversation, I was actually asserting that maybe you should not be trading BTC so frequently

Bingo.

That is your personal choice, and it is discretionary regarding how you value your time versus how much money (whether bitcoin or dollars) that you may or may not be able to stack up by trading so frequently versus how much time it takes to manage your trades, especially if you are carrying them out manually.

Methinks you overestimate the time commitment required to run the system at a lower interval.

[soxxx]

So what this basically tells me is that its likely that we will reach $13,900 on or near the day of the halving, and that this bull market is more than likely going to be similar to the last one, although it moved differently , it will come back to that line and go above and below it.

Yup that’s pretty much it.  

A $250,000-$300,000 Bitcoin makes sense. Bitcoin went from $5,000 to $20,0000 in a 2 month span. I would say its probable that we see Bitcoin go from $100,000 to $300,000 in a similar type of time span. $100k is obviously a significant number and when we do hit it, its going to be a huge story.

Glad I get to sit back and watch this drama play out.

You are just going to sit back?

Aren't you going to be nervous?

I was nervous when BTC went from $5k to $20k in mid-October 2017 to mid-December 2017.  

Of course, it was exciting and made me feel good, smart and rich, but it was also nerve racking.  

I suspect that if we get BTC price moves from $100k to $300k in anything close to a 2 months time frame (let's say in about late 2021 - could come sooner or could come later), I am anticipating that I am going to be quite nervous... even though I anticipate that I am still likely going to have a lot of bitcoins in such a scenario...  anticipate to be more than 70% of my current stash, I suspect.

Im nervous as all hell man trust me, I do have certain numbers where I plan to take profit but obviously its easier said than done. Kinda crazy how some of us will have been prepared years and the the biggest gains will come in the last 4% of the whole cycle......the window is small as hell to actually execute something you have waited years for.

[VB1001]

Good morning, Bitcoiners! How have you been? In need of some holiday cheer?

Here's @ahkyee, a director at Visa sharing a report from @DeutscheBank on some wild predictions (including Bitcoin) for 2030. Do I have your attention yet?

https://twitter.com/hansthered/status/1202980876176351232

[jbreher]

Yeah, of course, there are still a lot of dumbasses who actually believe the bearwhale propaganda,

Which bearwhales are spreading propaganda?

I was not referring to any bearwhale(s) in particular.  You should have been able to understand my mean ing from my earlier post.

There is a general phenomenon that bearwhales employ both hard dumping and FUD spreading or whatever they can in order to attempt to get the BTC price to go down for as long and as far that is possible...

Hey Torque - how'd you manage to jack JJG's account?

[JayJuanGee]

those kinds of BTC price fluctuations (whether fake outs or not) did not trigger any of my BTC sell orders or my BTC buy orders, so my amount of BTC stayed the same, so the value of my BTC stayed the same, too when the price moved up and down.

I think I see the problem.

Maybe you can explain?

Just poking you, given your previous proclivity to proclaim my price interval as preposterous.

That's fine.  I don't mind being poked, and even if there is merely a difference of opinion regarding what are reasonable increments.

Of course, there will be a decent amount of user discretion in these kinds of matters, and my previous grilling of you was attempting to take into account the whole situation and what I perceived to be reasonable adjustments, based on increased bitcoin prices and also presumptions that your stack of coins would have decent probabilities of being somewhere in the same territory as mine, but maybe I am presuming too much, too?  Or even your values on time versus money, since we are likely similar ages, even though I suspect you are a bit older than me.

We have already had some variation of this conversation, and in that older conversation, I was actually asserting that maybe you should not be trading BTC so frequently

Bingo.

That is your personal choice, and it is discretionary regarding how you value your time versus how much money (whether bitcoin or dollars) that you may or may not be able to stack up by trading so frequently versus how much time it takes to manage your trades, especially if you are carrying them out manually.

Methinks you overestimate the time commitment required to run the system at a lower interval.

You might have some more efficient methods of time management or order management than me, but I have been practicing with my trading and setting orders and blah blah blah enough to know how much time those kinds of activities take for myself and how I value my time versus my money and those kinds of weighings of personal factors. 

So, in the end, I am just asserting a general outline for what I am doing in regards to my BTC trade orders and the adjustment that I have historically made, continue to make and tentatively anticipate making in the future.

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, of course, there are still a lot of dumbasses who actually believe the bearwhale propaganda,

Which bearwhales are spreading propaganda?

I was not referring to any bearwhale(s) in particular.  You should have been able to understand my mean ing from my earlier post.

There is a general phenomenon that bearwhales employ both hard dumping and FUD spreading or whatever they can in order to attempt to get the BTC price to go down for as long and as far that is possible...

Hey Torque - how'd you manage to jack JJG's account?

This is how I feel about you, at the moment, jbreher (I am the one in the blue.  You are the one in the white):

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/Pladizow/status/1203013202105290753

Judging by the graph, the ascending ramp approaches.

[soxxx]

https://twitter.com/Pladizow/status/1203013202105290753

Judging by the graph, the ascending ramp approaches.

It was actually 1132 days before it retested the ATH, it took another 100 days before it would come back and break it. If history repeats then in January of 2021 we retest $20,000.

[Wekkel]

I approve of the increase in (hopium) chart posting.

[El duderino_]

I approve of the increase in (hopium) chart posting.

That’s good to hear, another new bullish indicator 

[Bossian]

This chart is important.

Posted by beincrypto.com in September (hence the 8.4k price). The blue and green lines are resistance and support. I kept this chart on my desktop.

If by the halving we are around 9k then it's all good, we also need to be around 8k in February-March but we saw the fractal of NebraskanGooner which indicates 7.5k area in this period.

Time will tell who's right and who's wrong. Keep an eye on this chart in the following weeks. 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Is Miner Capitulation A Real Thing? Does This Affect The Price of Bitcoin?

The Cost Associated with Bitcoin Mining

https://medium.com/digital-alpha-research/is-miner-capitulation-a-real-thing-does-this-affect-the-price-of-bitcoin-ac4516030f0?

I think the chart is 2018, but the content of the article on the cost of mining Bitcoin is current.

Who wants to join me & start a mining farm in Myanmar?