Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bossian]

BTC/USD
Long/Short Ratio
84:15
% of supply long:short
0.21:0.037
Long Daily Charge
$37,883
Short Daily Charge
0.32568 BTC
Total Long
37,880 ($285,020,484)
Funded Longs
$126,276,811
Total Short
6,743 ($50,736,355)
Funded Shorts
4,587 BTC


closed my long because its the most crowded trade on the internet.

went short @7580$

feeling not so confident (tight stops)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lTknVaPh

Good move.
But don't forget to buy again at 6k-ish as there will be another bounce back and this time it should be higher than 7.7k range.

Bitcoin is the revolutionized currency, Believe it or not!

It was revolutionary since the beginning in 2009. Or even earlier (Hal Finney work in 2004, etc.).

[jupiter9]

I should really check what this Gann theory is about. Looks like its another fancy way of fortune telling.

It really is. The TA guy I co-write on a website with loves it because you can make anything say anything using Gann. I mean, that's not how he would put it, but crypto traders love a good tea leaf reading, and Gann is great for that.

Here's an excerpt from a short article he wrote on 1440 day cycles and how the apply to bitcoin.

Gann was big on cycles. He was big on numbers. Specific numbers were significant to his analysis. Many of his numbers are Biblical, due to Gann’s staunch faith. It is no surprise that he placed considerable emphasis on the numbers 7, 9, 12, and 144 (there are others). So it should be no surprise that, so far, the number 1440 is of extreme importance. Why? Let’s look.

February 6th, 2010 – the first official Bitcoin exchange is launched. Why do I use this date as a starting point and not Bitcon’s white-paper date, genesis block date, or anything else before February 2010? Because in all of Gann’s work, when analyzing market cycles, the stock exchanges and their ‘birthday’ are used.

Fast forward 1440-days (the actual number is 1,396), and we get Bitcoin’s first important and significant all-time high around December 5th, 2013 – the Mt. Gox high.

From the Mt. Gox high in 2013, fast forward another 1440 (actually 1467) days to the current all-time high for Bitcoin on December 17th, 2017.

1440-days from December 17th, 2017? November 28th, 2021.

I like this thread a lot, there's some interesting stuff in here, should probably check in more often.

Do you know what happens on the eleventh and 12th year? I could only find for the 1-10 year cycle.

[Cryptotourist]

Do you know what happens on the eleventh and 12th year? I could only find for the 1-10 year cycle.

Assuming it is a cycle, repeat 1 to 10 for the 20 year cycle?

https://www.quora.com/What-is-W-D-Gann-time-cycle-its-application-in-stock-market

[AlcoHoDL]

11 = 3

True. As are the following:

11 = 9
11 = 13
11 = 17
11 = 21
11 = 1001
11 = 1011
11 = 10001

The possibilities are endless...

I only see 11.... wow nice stash

11 = 11BTC

11 BTC = 11 BTC, in any system, and that's what counts.

Nice stash indeed! Those who own 11 BTC (in base-10 or above in any base) will soon be set for life.

[JayJuanGee]

BTC/USD
Long/Short Ratio
84:15
% of supply long:short
0.21:0.037
Long Daily Charge
$37,883
Short Daily Charge
0.32568 BTC
Total Long
37,880 ($285,020,484)
Funded Longs
$126,276,811
Total Short
6,743 ($50,736,355)
Funded Shorts
4,587 BTC


closed my long because its the most crowded trade on the internet.

went short @7580$

feeling not so confident (tight stops)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lTknVaPh

Good move.
But don't forget to buy again at 6k-ish as there will be another bounce back and this time it should be higher than 7.7k range.

In terms of short term BTC price predictions, I would not rule out up, even though down or sideways could be correct outcomes, at least in the short to medium term, but if you don't have any coins and you are thinking about investing, what do you do?  Wait to buy? 

What if you have some bitcoins, but you are nervous about the short term price?  Do you hold or do you sell and wait to buy back lower?

Currently, BTC price is bounce/floating between about $7,300 to $7,600, I am not going to get too excited regarding short-term BTC price moves unless there is a break below $6,700 or a break above $8.2k. 

Furthermore, I continue to sense overexuberance in the alt coin space, so even though i sense that there could be somewhat of an altcoin season that comes sometime in the future that goes up along with BTC, there likely remains a lot of froth that can be purged from that space, and if it is purged, it might cause some continued downward pressures on BTC. 

Nonetheless, those kinds of short term uncertainties about BTC price and even concerns about various froth in the space that goes beyond bitcoin to some degree don't really say much at all about ongoing and decently strong BTC fundamentals, that can cause sporadic upbursts in BTC price from time to time. 

Will we see such sporadic upbursts in BTC price in the near future, could be, and I would hate to be a fence-sitter or take the wrong side of a bet during such possible upsurge happenings, but hey each of us have to make our own choices regarding what actions might be prudent in terms of BTC holdings. 

[whiteboy420]

BTC/USD
Long/Short Ratio
84:15
% of supply long:short
0.21:0.037
Long Daily Charge
$37,883
Short Daily Charge
0.32568 BTC
Total Long
37,880 ($285,020,484)
Funded Longs
$126,276,811
Total Short
6,743 ($50,736,355)
Funded Shorts
4,587 BTC


closed my long because its the most crowded trade on the internet.

went short @7580$

feeling not so confident (tight stops)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/lTknVaPh

Good move.
But don't forget to buy again at 6k-ish as there will be another bounce back and this time it should be higher than 7.7k range.

In terms of short term BTC price predictions, I would not rule out up, even though down or sideways could be correct outcomes, at least in the short to medium term, but if you don't have any coins and you are thinking about investing, what do you do?  Wait to buy?  

What if you have some bitcoins, but you are nervous about the short term price?  Do you hold or do you sell and wait to buy back lower?

Currently, BTC price is bounce/floating between about $7,300 to $7,600, I am not going to get too excited regarding short-term BTC price moves unless there is a break below $6,700 or a break above $8.2k.  

Furthermore, I continue to sense overexuberance in the alt coin space, so even though i sense that there could be somewhat of an altcoin season that comes sometime in the future that goes up along with BTC, there likely remains a lot of froth that can be purged from that space, and if it is purged, it might cause some continued downward pressures on BTC.  

Nonetheless, those kinds of short term uncertainties about BTC price and even concerns about various froth in the space that goes beyond bitcoin to some degree don't really say much at all about ongoing and decently strong BTC fundamentals, that can cause sporadic upbursts in BTC price from time to time.  

Will we see such sporadic upbursts in BTC price in the near future, could be, and I would hate to be a fence-sitter or take the wrong side of a bet during such possible upsurge happenings, but hey each of us have to make our own choices regarding what actions might be prudent in terms of BTC holdings.  

tldr

BTC/USD
Long/Short Ratio
85:14
% of supply long:short
0.21:0.035
Long Daily Charge
$37,759
Short Daily Charge
0.30891 BTC
Total Long
38,059 ($287,075,231)
Funded Longs
$125,862,175
Total Short
6,393 ($48,221,760)
Funded Shorts
4,477 BTC


dump should be close.

https://bfxmargin.com

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good afternoon WO!
Observing @ $7,523

[El duderino_]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5151405.msg53301168#msg53301168

^
Saturday was fine.
Me and my friend, awesome times.
Foodporn 9 way long.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5151405.msg53301168#msg53301168

^
Saturday was fine.
Me and my friend, awesome times.
Foodporn 9 way long.

Saturday cocaine.
Me and my girl too fucked up.
Tired but back to life.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

^
But there were no weekend pump 😀

This is fine.

[El duderino_]

^
But there were no weekend pump 😀

This is fine.

Indeed that was the negative side, just as my drunk promising to him a few weeks earlier .....

Though we had an awesome evening that can’t be taken away anymore and more important as only stacking money ....

[Last of the V8s]

https://zuxbux.win/
cute one from Giacomo

...Carefully take note of all the gaslighting tactics, the rhetoric tricks, the fallacies, the dissimulated double-standards, the confusing intellectual Rube-Goldberg machines, the unholy hybrids of mellifluous sealioning and aggressive Gish-galloping. Then just embrace them, accept them...and, finally, enhance them! Remember: the same exact “arguments” the Axl Rose look-alike uses to confuse people interested in Bitcoin and to justify his scam, can be used by you to confuse people interested in HEX and to justify your own scam!!!...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RY1KoQXM-R0 He was on Heart's channel earlier, trolling gently.

[jojo69]

it was a sideways pump


edit...spoke too soon

[LUCKMCFLY]

Analysis by Tom Lee ..

We may be about to test
@fundstrat
's theory.

S&P up 27% in 2019. Up 4% from November breakout.

Will a rising S&P tide bring the Bitcoin boat up also?

“Bitcoin does best when the S&P’s up more than 15%.”
- Tom Lee

Source: https://twitter.com/caprioleio/status/1203628681903689728

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Indeed that was the negative side, just as my drunk promising to him a few weeks earlier .....

It does not matter!

Though we had an awesome evening that can’t be taken away anymore and more important as only stacking money ....

Happy for you. Family comes first.

it was a sideways pump

Moving sideways from long time! It's boring.

[JayJuanGee]

^
Perhaps keeping it simple for the general audience.  Lots of folks will stop listening if they don't understand what's being said. He appeals to a large group of investors I'd imagine of which most probably won't understand mining.

For context, we are referring to my comments about the Tim Draper interview video.

Even though I agree with you (Icygreen) that Draper likely attempts to frame his discussion in terms of broad context ideas, I stick by the comments of my earlier post, and I may even double down to assert that he might not even understand the significance of certain technical aspects of projects in which he invests.  

I am NOT trying to act as if I am technically smarter than Draper, but he is more of a broader concepts kind of investor and he does not necessarily get into the technical weeds of his various investments, but he does seem to be more than ready, willing and able to get into investing into technical matters that he does not understand so long as he largely agrees with the overall offer proposition of the thing that he is investing into.  Probably the fact that he dabbles with a large number of investments at the same time, necessitates that he does not get into too many technical details, so, again, I am not sure whether he actually understands the significance of the every two weeks mining adjustment (because it would be easy enough to put that into laymans terms), but of course, I recognize that he easily would understand the whole concept if anyone were to explain it to him (presuming that he currently does not recognize it as an important factor to mention in these kinds of public overview of bitcoin discussions).

I will also assert that even though Draper does not seem to get into the weeds of any technical proposition arguments, he also does not seem to be easily distracted into any kinds of pumping up of various shitcoins, and maybe he does invest in shitcoins but just does not talk about them.  Most of all interviews that I have seen him, he will redirect any attempts at shitcoin talking back towards bitcoin.  So, whether he ends up being correct or not, his not getting into shitcoins is something else that bitcoin maximalists can appreciate.

Don't get me wrong, I, personally, am not really hostile to various possible technical offerings of shitcoins, but I am frequently against either overexaggerating their importance or attempting to put them on some kind of equivalency pedestal as bitcoin, when there is a BIG ASS lacking of actual factual and logical evidence to show any shitcoin to come even close to bitcoin, and I hate to even mention the network effects of Ethereum in this regard, because even the network effects of ethereum seem to be considerably built upon smoke and mirrors that have decent odds of completely collapsing in spite of all the supposed hundreds of thousands of snot nosed 14 year olds building upon it.  But hey what do I know?  I am surprised that ethereum is seemingly holding its own (to the extent that it is) for more than 5 years already... holiey ba-jeezus!!!!!  

[JayJuanGee]

^
But there were no weekend pump 😀

This is fine.

Indeed that was the negative side, just as my drunk promising to him a few weeks earlier .....

Though we had an awesome evening that can’t be taken away anymore and more important as only stacking money ....

I am a bit unclear about what you mean about this "stacking money" concept?  Are you saying it is a good thing to "stack money"?  or a bad thing?  or something else?

Maybe it is a "bad" english thing coming out of the keyboard of "this particular" team associate?   

Or alternatively, it is possible that I might just be NOT understanding some kind of contextual issue regarding this usage. Perhaps?

[mindrust]

Some hopium charts.

On the first one, the daily 350 MA is holding quite well while the Mayer Multiple is 0.78. Last time MM was this low it was the last year when the bitcoin was below $4k.

On the second chart we see the 200 Weekly Moving Average. According to this one, we never entered the bear market at all. The moment we came pretty close was last year when the price was $3.2k. What happened then? A mini bull to 14k.

Conclusion: We are very close to the bottom.

Now the Important Questions:

Q- Can it go lower?
A- Sure it can.

Q- Is it worth waiting?
A- I don't think so.

Q- Would you go all in from these prices?
A- Not my thing but I would start putting some serious amounts if I had no bitcoins. I personally increased my DCA's lately. (I did slow it down it in after May when it was above 10k and I told you when it was happening)

It is under 10k. Very close to the some serious support levels. 200DMA was a serious one too but I remember what I said back then, the real boss is the 350DMA. (The king boss commanding general is 200WMA)

I would buy bitcoin from these levels and that's what I am doing.

[El duderino_]

^
But there were no weekend pump 😀

This is fine.

Indeed that was the negative side, just as my drunk promising to him a few weeks earlier .....

Though we had an awesome evening that can’t be taken away anymore and more important as only stacking money ....

I am a bit unclear about what you mean about this "stacking money" concept?  Are you saying it is a good thing to "stack money"?  or a bad thing?  or something else?

Maybe it is a "bad" english thing coming out of the keyboard of "this particular" team associate?   

Or alternatively, it is possible that I might just be NOT understanding some kind of contextual issue regarding this usage. Perhaps?

It’s not to difficult actually ..... don’t only save money in general ( money = which money or whatever you prefer that’s valuable to you...)
But have fun as well!!!

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

<snip>

I would buy bitcoin from these levels and that's what I am doing.

Bitcoin spirit!