Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Everything is working exactly as it should be. Boring stability in the price, very low volatility 6 months from the halving. Hope you’re all continuing to buy every sat you can whilst we’re in this boring price period.

I’m really looking forward to the next 2 years, it’s going to be really interesting to see where we go (moon most likely).

I am getting paid on Friday and I have a payment coming today too. So I do not mind the price. 😉

Ovserving @ $ 7,337 again!

[hnbdgr]

Also I am still fearful that so much expectation from so many people about the halving could not result in the expected outcome and when I see "predictions" for the next 2-5 years like $50K, $100K and over I get nervous. Well, we will see. Whatever it has to be, just let it be. I will just HODL (and try to sell *some* when the time price comes).

I remember the period before the halving in 2016, and I can assure you there were just as many predictions (on a per capita basis, bitcoin community was much smaller then with little mainstream pickup) about how the price was going to boom. The only difference this time is that they are putting lofty price targets along with the prediction. It seems that the only reason why these price predictions are happening this time is because of the very popular stock to flow analysis by PlanB.

I am not fearful at all, and anyone who has an understanding about supply constricted markets shouldn't be fearful either.

I think that bitserve is reffering to those investors who have too high expectations based on these predictions. These may turn out to be weak hands when the next halving occurs and the price is not what they expected. Often when everyone awaits something to happen in certain time interval, it doesn't happen. The market mood is somehow represented by long/short positions. Currently, there are too many long positions and the price is constantly plummeting instead of rising. In other words, we can't accept as granted that in 2020 or 2021 we will see prices $50K+. Or, we may see it, but only briefly like the 20K in Dec. 2017 which lasted only hours. Let's hope for the best in the next 5 years, but be prepared for the worst as well.

[jojo69]

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

Golly, who could have seen that coming?   

[AlcoHoDL]

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

Can't they change platform? Is Github so powerful and essential?

The first time I heard that M$ was in charge, I knew it would mean trouble...

Edit: It's so sad... Every time something free becomes successful, the big sharks come to fcuk it up... Github, Bitcoin, anything. Human nature?

[vroom]

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

This is not a threat, the bitcoin project can be moved to other services in a matter of minutes.

The biggest threat for bitcoin today is the bad privacy. Using bitcoin is not as anonymous as it should be.

[VB1001]

I wish we'd just crash below $6,500, to rip the bandage off and cause some real pain. This fucking around Bitcorn is doing, is starting to piss me off. She's all over the place last few weeks...

Calm down Bob, if BTC recovers and starts to climb perfect and if it has to go down, no problem, we will buy more, I know that this scenario does not solve your situation, but let the laggards accumulate a little more satoshis.

[Icygreen]

For the sideways price doldrums I’ll tell a little story which led me to discover Bitcoin.
 
The tipping point for my entering Bitcoin ultimately came from the wake-up call I received on November 8th 2016 by India’s prime minister recalling the nations currency.  Prior to this event it had not occurred to me that a currency could overnight be discarded and replaced especially considering 1.35 billion people using it in a largely cash based society.

Interestingly, the year prior to this move, gold became very difficult or impossible to acquire in India, besides ready-made jewelry, bullion and grain were not available.  Hindsight would reveal the government’s cold calculations and capital control.  Many business persons whom I dealt with in India were forced to forfeit a significant portion of their cash holdings to “taxes” upon the exchange to the new notes if they could not prove how they acquired their savings.

Normally I like to carry a hundred bucks or so worth of currency from each country I intend on returning to in order to avoid poor exchange rates at airports but more for an overall easier entry at any hour. The promissory notes I still hold have become a reminder of why its important to own your own money.

India taught me that cash can, will and does go to zero regardless of any promise even when such promise is explicitly written and signed for by the issuing governance on the face of the note.

[Last of the V8s]

https://www.500headlinesaboutbitcoin.com/

Money without masters.
It’s not too late to be early.
The bitcoin network is the world’s most powerful lie detector. No wonder banks hate it.
Today’s financial system is built on math. And soon it will be eliminated by it.
What you get when an unstoppable force is also an immovable object.
Just because its origins are unclear, doesn’t mean its future is.
...

[gembitz]

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

old news just move your repos to gitlabz or peer-to-peer alternatives ;-D ~easy

[dragonvslinux]

I wish we'd just crash below $6,500, to rip the bandage off and cause some real pain. This fucking around Bitcorn is doing, is starting to piss me off. She's all over the place last few weeks...

Calm down Bob, if BTC recovers and starts to climb perfect and if it has to go down, no problem, we will buy more, I know that this scenario does not solve your situation, but let the laggards accumulate a little more satoshis.

I really don't see what the problem is, if Bitcoin continues to move sideways, you can accumulate more.
If Bitcoin crashes below $6500, you can accumulate more.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I wish we'd just crash below $6,500, to rip the bandage off and cause some real pain. This fucking around Bitcorn is doing, is starting to piss me off. She's all over the place last few weeks...

I share your impatience in a way Bob but the halving is still 6 months away so the price shouldn’t be expected to be sky high at this point (based on previous cycles).

Trust me, if we enter 2022 & we haven’t reached a new ATH I’m going to be feeling pissed off & quite worried.

At this point though just chill & relax. Nothing to be concerned about!

[El duderino_]

I wish we'd just crash below $6,500, to rip the bandage off and cause some real pain. This fucking around Bitcorn is doing, is starting to piss me off. She's all over the place last few weeks...

Calm down Bob, if BTC recovers and starts to climb perfect and if it has to go down, no problem, we will buy more, I know that this scenario does not solve your situation, but let the laggards accumulate a little more satoshis.

I really don't see what the problem is, if Bitcoin continues to move sideways, you can accumulate more.
If Bitcoin crashes below $6500, you can accumulate more.

If bitcoin explodes up then all those that invested a lot can retire....

Maybe for some who where early and smart are just happy with their stash and waiting on reward ....

The situation isn’t the same for everyone....

[bitcoinPsycho]

This is not fine

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

[bitcoinPsycho]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

Not panicking just want $100000 BTC now

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

Not panicking just want $100000 BTC now

Me too.


Plan B
@100trillionUSD
Looking into miner coins movement. I missed completely that there are some new kids on the block: Poolin is the largest #bitcoin miner now! Canoe coming up.

[VB1001]

WO antidote, serves for DIP, BART, FUD, once inoculated no longer affects you.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@queen0fcrypto

[LUCKMCFLY]

Some variations that have made the PlanB model. It catches my attention because PlanB liked it.

For this, i calculated the vecm for each month and took the confidence intervals from the models. for the forecast part, i used the confidence interval from the last model. this last part is the interval given by exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.189581,  exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.713882.

 

here. I plotted the CI expansions for each VECM snapshot, and then used the last CI for the forecast range.

 
    Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204329006641762304

Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204370743976284160

[birr]

Probably more fair to start measuring BTC price or value from 2012, if not a bit later.. but hey.. we can assess that there was some liquidity and price finding abilities that were starting to occur in 2010 and 2011

I think rational price discovery started early as late August or September 2010