Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

[bitcoinPsycho]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

Not panicking just want $100000 BTC now

[LFC_Bitcoin]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

Not panicking just want $100000 BTC now

Me too.


Plan B
@100trillionUSD
Looking into miner coins movement. I missed completely that there are some new kids on the block: Poolin is the largest #bitcoin miner now! Canoe coming up.

[VB1001]

WO antidote, serves for DIP, BART, FUD, once inoculated no longer affects you.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

@queen0fcrypto

[LUCKMCFLY]

Some variations that have made the PlanB model. It catches my attention because PlanB liked it.

For this, i calculated the vecm for each month and took the confidence intervals from the models. for the forecast part, i used the confidence interval from the last model. this last part is the interval given by exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.189581,  exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.713882.

 

here. I plotted the CI expansions for each VECM snapshot, and then used the last CI for the forecast range.

 
    Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204329006641762304

Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204370743976284160

[birr]

Probably more fair to start measuring BTC price or value from 2012, if not a bit later.. but hey.. we can assess that there was some liquidity and price finding abilities that were starting to occur in 2010 and 2011

I think rational price discovery started early as late August or September 2010

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

@queen0fcrypto

They will not tell you the truth.

[Paashaas]

Japan-based startup Nayuta has released what it says is the first lightning network wallet with a built-in bitcoin "full node.".

Nayuta claims it is the first developer to add a full node to its wallet, making the esoteric sovereignty-preserving technology a bit easier to use. They use a fork of the project ABCore, which makes it easier to run a full node on Android devices.

I prefer security than easier to use..

[jojo69]

They promised us an X-mass price.....

The hats are very nice, but in the interim the bastards are building the Death Star https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dW549Ohkxo

Wow, that stoner's shit holds together...documentation and everything

[bitserve]

Also I am still fearful that so much expectation from so many people about the halving could not result in the expected outcome and when I see "predictions" for the next 2-5 years like $50K, $100K and over I get nervous. Well, we will see. Whatever it has to be, just let it be. I will just HODL (and try to sell *some* when the time price comes).

I remember the period before the halving in 2016, and I can assure you there were just as many predictions (on a per capita basis, bitcoin community was much smaller then with little mainstream pickup) about how the price was going to boom. The only difference this time is that they are putting lofty price targets along with the prediction. It seems that the only reason why these price predictions are happening this time is because of the very popular stock to flow analysis by PlanB.

I am not fearful at all, and anyone who has an understanding about supply constricted markets shouldn't be fearful either.

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. If too many people decides to keep hodling/buying just because of those predictions and when the time comes the outcome doesn't materialise -> problem.

The stock to flow analysis by PlanB is nice but it is just a model which could perfectly be wrong. Also, even if the *additional* supply is halved and it should have an impact on price, that amount is only a small part of the free float (which can and does change vastly depending on many other factors like FOMO/PANIC).

DOn't get me wrong... my money is on Bitcoin eventually reaching a new ATH in maybe less than 2 years after the halving. I just don't have the confidence to take it for granted nor do I feel the need to do so as I can do both fear and HODL at the same time.

[JSRAW]

For Beer lovers

Bitcoin/Lightning Network Beer Faucet

[bitcoinPsycho]

[Hueristic]

A reminder that the battle for open source financial and communication freedom is not ever 'won'.  A little vigilance is essential.

https://medium.com/swlh/how-microsoft-might-become-a-threat-to-bitcoin-f886fe7fbb3a

'The American software behemoth has been censoring the development of open-source software on Github. This has serious implications for blockchain development projects, including Bitcoin.'

This is not a threat, the bitcoin project can be moved to other services in a matter of minutes.

The biggest threat for bitcoin today is the bad privacy. Using bitcoin is not as anonymous as it should be.

Bakkt is the much larger threat.

https://youtu.be/uuQC6f6F4Ls?t=838


Everyone backed up before M$ moved on github and no-one in FOSS trusts Redmond.

Wow, that stoner's shit holds together...documentation and everything

Yep, he has correlated all this shit we have been saying for the last few years and made some pretty good sense of it. i especially like the way he attributes the futures attack as being akin to the gold futures attack.

[Wekkel]

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. [..]

I concur. Expect for a few desperate moments after the drop to $3,xxx, it has been a cozy winter ride so far.

Can’t say the same for Alts  

[Biodom]

Some variations that have made the PlanB model. It catches my attention because PlanB liked it.

For this, i calculated the vecm for each month and took the confidence intervals from the models. for the forecast part, i used the confidence interval from the last model. this last part is the interval given by exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.189581,  exp(-2.443379)*sf^3.713882.

 

here. I plotted the CI expansions for each VECM snapshot, and then used the last CI for the forecast range.

 
    Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204329006641762304

Source: https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204370743976284160

Interesting...looking backwards, it gives an interesting setup at or immediately after the halving.
We shall see if it repeats itself.
The band is wide enough for btc to be anywhere between 3K and 18K at the halving, though.
However, the lower it would be, the higher is the ensuing "safe" upside potential.
This explains why funds are pressing btc down, since they know about the possible timing of the reversal and the maximum surge potential upon halving. I had observed this before with biotech stocks which are often being moved down just before the 10X gain in a week on relevant info release.

EDIT: BTW, during both previous halving we came out of The "box" at about 30-40% of the box height (slightly below the midline). Projecting the same %% to this halving would indicate about 5-6.5K, which would be annoyingly low, but with a very high profit potential.

[VB1001]

I have always thought about how we could keep in touch if the forum suffers a serious fall and disconnects for many hours,
I know that the Bitcointalk hosting service is very powerful and this is unlikely to happen,
but anyway, remember this in wohats:



Offline forum? https://www.wohats.com/2019/12/offline-forum.html

If this happens, I will open the comments without registration so that we can be online all WO,s

Maybe it will never be used, but that way we have a way of communication.

(Now I will have the comments without registration a few hours, there are some WO,s who asked if they could publish in wohats.)

[infofront]

I believe there's an incoming double bottom...

[Last of the V8s]

At @Visa for a full day of Bitcoin and Lightning!

[mindrust]

This is not fine

Meh, not remotely worried. Show me sub $5,000 before I start to panic. Even then I’d spend 5 figures (GBP) on a load more coins.

Not panicking just want $100000 BTC now

Panic is a good thing.

You release more adrenaline when you panic.

Panic keeps you alive.

That's how animals survived through the centuries. So did humans. (Dinosaurs didn't panic hard enough)

However... I don't panic anymore when bitcoin goes down. I used to panic when bitcoin was going down too.

You know when I panic now?

I panic when it goes UP!