Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

https://twitter.com/BTCarchitect/status/1204497761472786439?s=20

Which road will we follow  Or something completely different? 

[1713940186]

1713940186

[1713940186]

1713940186

[JayJuanGee]

I was somewhat inactive during the period 2014-2015 but it is my impression that there were more doom and gloom in comparison to this period. [..]

I concur. Expect for a few desperate moments after the drop to $3,xxx, it has been a cozy winter ride so far.

Can’t say the same for Alts  

That would be pretty scary, if it were to happen.  Maybe less than 33.3% odds of happening, and maybe you are rooting for V8 to win the bet (with Hairy) before the end of February, which would be even lower odds, perhaps less than 22.2%?  I am just ballpark guessing on the odds, by the way.

[Biodom]

https://twitter.com/BTCarchitect/status/1204497761472786439?s=20

Which road will we follow  Or something completely different? 

Interestingly, both of his scenarios do not violate planB scenario as presented (further analyzed) by @phraudsta:
https://twitter.com/phraudsta/status/1204370743976284160

[El duderino_]

^
Good good let it happen most important “sorry being selfish  ” is for myself that I know I’m not to be shaken out, especially not from about 2 minutes from now, cause then I will be entering my HODLsleep

Nite bro’s

[Millionero]

Probably more fair to start measuring BTC price or value from 2012, if not a bit later.. but hey.. we can assess that there was some liquidity and price finding abilities that were starting to occur in 2010 and 2011

I think rational price discovery started early as late August or September 2010

What were the exchanges?  GOX?  Sure was hard to send any money to GOX in 2010... but hey, late 2010 is way the hell more reasonable for a starting point than anytime in 2009 - especially January 2009.   

It started on Gox.
Bitcointalk member kellrobinson did a quadratic regression with time as a function of price to get a "sideways" parabola with basically a perfect fit to the local minima of bitcoin usd price history.  The history is Gox and Bitstamp concatenated.   The parabola's apex is at September 8, 2010.

[xhomerx10]

^
Good good let it happen most important “sorry being selfish  ” is for myself that I know I’m not to be shaken out, especially not from about 2 minutes from now, cause then I will be entering my HODLsleep

Nite bro’s

 Good night Mr. MicG

[STT]

I dont like the mountain picture, if they are building a road over a mountain pass there is never a reason I heard of to exclusively take the highest point.   Whats the point of an analogy if detail it might provide to natural dynamics are ignored, a road over a mountain takes a heck of alot of twists and turns and as we know BTC though its grown alot has also jumped around such a massive amount.   Anyone new to this game might lose this detail and Im not sure such an illustration is helpful especially as the vast majority of views, clicks even readers will skim the message and attempt to summarise anything said.

[JayJuanGee]

JFC JJG!!!

How do you expect me to reply to this if for *each* of my lines you post several paragraphs and all with intermixed quotes to further complicate any followup?!

Do your best.


 #nohomo


 

(Note:  By the way, you don't need to respond any further.. that is totally up to you.  I won't feel shirked, at all)

Anyway it would be ungrateful on my part to not recognise your effort and good intention... Also for the most part, I do agree with the whole essence of what you posted there... which is a LOT! lol

Could be that I threw a few extra ideas in there, accidentally.  

I was thinking further that it would be nice if DOWN proclaimers like lambie and jonoiv get punished the fuck out of, but like we already mentioned, it is very difficult to know whether the down is over yet or not.

[JayJuanGee]

I am curious as to what is the price level (low or high) where 70-90% of WO sell the majority of their stake.
I would be an interesting topic to ascertain if people would be truthful in their answers.

You have to include both time and price in order to get something that is even close to accurate answers.... otherwise assuming that WO folks would answer somewhat truthfully.

The most drawdown in a large cap stock I had ever seen was AMZN from intraday high $113 on Dec 6, 1999 to $5.67 on Sept 24, 2001, almost exactly 95% decline in approx 22 mo.

We already had this kind of decline after the first "bubblette" in 2011, but from a purely theoretical perspective, it would be (in the current cycle) from 20089 on Dec 17, 2017 (using yahoo historical data) to about $1010 sometime in the next 5-6mo (timing is already off).

I was presuming that you were talking about up.  Down might be a different story.  Some folks are not going to sell, and just will ride it to zero, if need be.

I know that these are crazy numbers, so I don't even want to give a probability of such event.
In all likelihood the modified planB "box" at the halving between 3k and 18K should hold true.

My last buy was about $7100, so above are just theoretical musings.

Below $5,000 at some point is probably 40% or so odds.  Below $3k would be less than 25%.  And, below $1k would probably be less than 5%... roughly speaking...   Maybe our odds of breaking the local low are slightly less than 50/50 since we seem to be in a bull market... but hardly anyone believes that we are in a bull market, except me and a few rare others (and I am starting to even question our bull market status, a bit).

[JayJuanGee]

I wish we'd just crash below $6,500, to rip the bandage off and cause some real pain. This fucking around Bitcorn is doing, is starting to piss me off. She's all over the place last few weeks...

Calm down Bob, if BTC recovers and starts to climb perfect and if it has to go down, no problem, we will buy more, I know that this scenario does not solve your situation, but let the laggards accumulate a little more satoshis.

hahahahaha.... Reminds me of this scene in Airport.  Sorry I could not find a better resolution.

Point is, the feeling I'm getting is all this price lagging is bearwhales trying to shake out the weak hands. I'm thinking a flash-crash to $6,500 for a few hours would be a great buying opportunity, and a level that people will likely starting panicking and dumping.

Sorta like "We can't go up until we go down a bit more" sorta thing (?)

I understand.  I was just razzing you, and I love that Airplane scene.  It was so funny when first seeing it and the various rewatching of those airplane movies.

I understand also that a lot of times we experience BIG down moves before we go up, but I just hate wishing for them, because they are not even necessarily a condition precedent.  Price merely gets stuck down for a lot longer than it should.  In other words, we don't need to have down before we go up, but sure it could happen.. but then again, it might not.

You have been there too, and in that regard, we have situations in bitcoin where a large number of people are expecting and hoping for down before up, and we just end up having up before more up.  I will go with whatever is the situation, while not considering that down before up has to happen, even if the odds could possibly be slightly in its favor, in the short term. Perhaps?

[arklan]

the long term logarithmic charts are always fascinating to me. just those repeated spikes, over and over. sure only a handful of times so far, but we're talking a mere decade.

[Icygreen]

I am curious as to what is the price level (low or high) where 70-90% of WO sell the majority of their stake.

I'd say WO's are less likely to sell at lower prices vs higher ones. We are largely an educated lot with fundamental understandings. Entertaining the question of how to shake out 70-90% of the WO's, perhaps an extreme low around 1900 would shake the weak hands, over invested, dollar chasers etc.  then a sharp bubble like rise to 46K might shake out the long term hodl.  Perhaps in this scenario only the most hardened believers would remain however, we've already done 1,800 to 20k and many of us are still here so...
Personally, its not nearly as scary to consider much lower prices for BTC however it would be much more difficult to HODL if price goes up a lot and its believed that we are at the peak of another bubble. Higher prices have a much better chance of shakeout of WO's in my opinion.

[LUCKMCFLY]

Many positions in Longs ... Maybe the offer does not appear in the levels...

Someone is longing the hell out of bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/zackvoell/status/1204406439160242177

While looking at the chart that Voell referenced above, it is clear that there is an inverse correlation between long/short positions and price movements, as long positions dived to multi-year lows in March of 2019 when BTC was trading at yearly lows in the $3,000 region, just before it began a massive rally up to $13,800.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/10/bitcoin-longs-are-rising-rapidly-today-but-why-is-its-price-not-moving/

[jbreher]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5198154.msg53272496#msg53272496
 

I find it rather comforting to learn that 'Column J' has stayed well within a two-order-of-magnitude range over the listed date range.

Err...

Column J is short for Column Jbreher.

Well, it does roughly approximate my effort spent on all things Bitcoin. Though it seems to be omitting the early involvement.

[Icygreen]

Many positions in Longs ... Maybe the offer does not appear in the levels...

Someone is longing the hell out of bitcoin.

Source: https://twitter.com/zackvoell/status/1204406439160242177

While looking at the chart that Voell referenced above, it is clear that there is an inverse correlation between long/short positions and price movements, as long positions dived to multi-year lows in March of 2019 when BTC was trading at yearly lows in the $3,000 region, just before it began a massive rally up to $13,800.

Source: https://www.newsbtc.com/2019/12/10/bitcoin-longs-are-rising-rapidly-today-but-why-is-its-price-not-moving/

I've been watching bitfinex longs for awhile since it's the only dildo action out there but I'm starting to think that it may be more like a fishing lure than a metric to go by.
Too long, too strong and no other exchanges to compare by.  For these reasons I'm preparing more heavily for down and loading the exchange with fresh ammo compliments of Christmas shoppers. TYVM!
I'd be delighted to be wrong and perfectly ok to buy higher if price is convincing.

[Bitcoinaire]

This homeless guy lays out some information about tether and bitfinex finally collapsing...
Intriguing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2Kn6GEBwaM

[Hueristic]

This homeless guy lays out some information about tether and bitfinex finally collapsing...
Intriguing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2Kn6GEBwaM

It's been amusing viewing while we Bart out.

MMA Fight Is On! Chico Crypto vs Charles Hoskinson - REAL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAKN7hnBaXw

Massive clickbait ^^^


I like this chico guy.

[Bitcoinaire]

This homeless guy lays out some information about tether and bitfinex finally collapsing...
Intriguing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2Kn6GEBwaM

It's been amusing viewing while we Bart out.

MMA Fight Is On! Chico Crypto vs Charles Hoskinson - REAL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gAKN7hnBaXw

Massive clickbait ^^^


I like this chico guy.

Lol, I'll watch it if it ACTUALLY goes down!

[Icygreen]

This homeless guy lays out some information about tether and bitfinex finally collapsing...
Intriguing...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B2Kn6GEBwaM

Again with a solid looking bit of research. Gonna have to put some more eyes on this dood!  Not ok with the title however. Anyone who suggests price movements in their vid title get a critical stink eye regardless of content.

[jbreher]

Do you know what happens on the eleventh and 12th year? I could only find for the 1-10 year cycle.

Assuming it is a cycle, repeat 1 to 10 for the 20 year cycle?

https://www.quora.com/What-is-W-D-Gann-time-cycle-its-application-in-stock-market

Yeah. After ten years, it does it a-Gann. Hence the name.