Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Bossian]

I remember I read somewhere that a Halving will eventually generate a x7 increase in the price of Bitcoin.

Problem is, I can't find a reference to where I read it...

Sounds good though, doesn't it?

HoDL!

I believe Bitcoin will reach 7x from the last ATH, i.e. 130-140K. What I don't believe is that I will have the mental power to HODL until then   The price won't get there automatically. There will be many major resistances on the way. For starters, we have to break the two major resistances at 12K and 19K. There were many predictions that at the end of 2019 the price would have been above 20K, but this obviously didn't happen. However, after the halving this is more probable to happen. Considering that in 2017 we had 2 major resistance lines after the ATH was broken - 2.9K and 4.8K, I expect simiar resistance at 29K and 48K. If we are following 2017 pattern, this should happen sometime in 2021. Whether the price will reach and surpass 100K before the halving in 2024 is hard to predict. IMO, there are some chances for that but it will be temporarily and there might be another bear year of dropping back to 30K. But what won't be accomplished after the halving in 2020 it will be done after the halving in 2024. I mean, people now are more cautious and hurry to sell with small profits. Thus it is possible to stay longer at prices around 10K-20K. I won't be surprised if takes more than 2 years to breach the last ATH and stay above it. In longterm it is better that way. The delayed bull run is much stronger than the premature run. Anyway, after 2024 the journey to 140K will be much easier. Of course, we are speaking only about probabilities, not 100% certain things to happen.

But I want to return to my thought about the power to HODL. I have several selling plans in terms of fiat profit - 600K (which makes me a millionaire in the currency of my country which is attached to half of the euro), 1mil, 1.5mil, 2mil and 2.5mil.  I wish I can hold until 140K, but considering I am 47 years old and starting to have some health issues, I really don't know if I will be able to resist the first goal when it happens. Considering that the expenses in my country are very low, I would be able to live as a rich guy with such sum. I won't be able to buy a lambo, but I may buy/build a luxury villa and continue to go to job (which is not hard, although low paid). And if the price falls 30%+ after I sell, I can rebuy with up to half of this sum. If not, I won't be miserable since I achieved my personal goal. But let be positive and hope for the best. For now, I am continue to accumulate as long the price stays under 15K. After that my miserable salary of 850$ per month won't make the difference.

X7 is probably based on what is said on this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IXE1AKevRWA&t=2s Steve talked about a 800% rise after the sudden spike of the stock to flow ratio. I am not sure why though because he talked about mid-2016 and the rise was much than 800% if we have December 2017 as the ending point (he didn't explain clearly on the video).

[kurious]

Halving, maybe:

"The halving is priced in so much that it’s actually not priced in and no one is buying bitcoin except the smart money who knows it’s not priced in who has convinced everyone else it is priced in so when the halving occurs and price is skyrocketing no one will be holding bitcoin"

https://twitter.com/JacobCanfield/status/1210927394397315072

[serveria.com]

Why would 7X ATH be a disorderly market?

To me such large price differences are incredible yet here we are in what seems slightly unreal to me.   I dont think I'll ever accept that its normal, gold should not be changing price especially but we have unreliable pricing or quite alot of inflation occuring.
  Its a reflection the QE programs but I dont think that continues forever, theres damage occurring especially to a large part of the world which has no gold personally and no assets that really gain from this price inflation, some are losing despite being honest workers who provide goods in demand.   So money isnt reliable for them, BTC is I hope going to be part of the change that occurs but I think we have a bumpy road ahead with many upsets.
  Some countries have negative interest rates now, its surreal imo.    The problem is they cannot readjust in any direction apart from more inflation.  $250 to $10,000 is ridiculous for an inert rock to alter price, traders might like it but instability is bad for business.

50k-80k area for year 2023-2024, be patient guys.

Exactly, new bottom after after the glorious 2020-2021 spike to the $400-500k moon 

[JSRAW]

+1 for sharing your story ivomm. i suggest bookmarking this piece and read every now and then, tweak accordingly when time passes by.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg52407662#msg52407662

[AlcoHoDL]

@AlcoHoDL this might jog your memory...

https://hackernoon.com/will-bitcoin-skyrocket-after-the-2020-halving-like-in-2016-b61c6568debb

Thanks. This article suggests a x10 increase as a minimum. Even better!

Towards the end it mentions about the Litecoin Halving, which happened on August 2019, but hasn't pushed the price up (yet)... But Bitcoin's a different beast, I guess we'll just have to wait HoDL and see. If x7 or more happens to Bitcoin's price, I'll have reached my financial independence goal, as will many fellow WOs.

I wonder what kind of hats we'll all be wearing then!  

[gentlemand]

Dammit, today is the end of the year party or April Fools Day...

That account has long acted like several different people are using it.

One moment he's running his little fingers up and down his shaft at the prospect of BCH, a project with massive centralisation that has been 51 percented, and on the same day he's urging Bitcoin miners to change algorithm to save decentralisation.

Make up yer fuggin mind.

I can see why someone who's been around for so long will have gone mad, most seem to eventually, but I would expect him to be disenchanted by the tsunami of shit created rather than moaning about them not being taken seriously. There's still hardly anything that expresses the slightest interest in repeating BTC's principles.

[d_eddie]

Critic: Nothing backs Bitcoin.

Bitcoiner: What backs the dollar?

Critic: An army on the outside and police on the inside.
Such backing is hard to dismiss.

Bitcoiner: Mathematics. Harder still.


(Just playing devil's advocate.)

[LFC_Bitcoin]

We were told the last halving was priced in & we all know how that worked out. People saying this are mainly trolls & NOCOINERS.

The halving is not priced in, no fucking way.

[NeuroticFish]

What backs the dollar?

Promises made by politicians. Veeeery reliable, lol!

[HairyMaclairy]

Happy Preemptive New Years WOers !

A small competition to celebrate the ending of 2019 (and the bear season with it) and a welcome to 2020.  

As always, name this landmark.  It is a major global landmark.  Usual rules apply: 10 merits to first person to name location.  V8 is only allowed two guesses per day. More pixels added at random intervals.  The full picture is identifiable as the landmark.  

[DeathAngel]

@HM - I’m rubbish as these games. Maybe New York City, Times Square.

[P_Shep]

Happy Preemptive New Years WOers !

A small competition to celebrate the ending of 2019 (and the bear season with it) and a welcome to 2020.  

As always, name this landmark.  It is a major global landmark.  Usual rules apply: 10 merits to first person to name location.  V8 is only allowed two guesses per day. More pixels added at random intervals.  The full picture is identifiable as the landmark.  

Shibuya, Tokyo?

[mindrust]

Today a friend of mine (we graduated from the same college) told me that he wants to invest in bitcoin for a quick hit and run. Invest $5k, get out when its $7-8.

I said ok, there is nothing wrong about it. I too believe it will reach at least 9-10k once again in a year.

Then I showed him how I make my buys/sells on an exchange. Then he asked me a question:

"After you buy these bitcoins, at which bank do you keep them? ING?"

I was like, "Bruh..." I was going say that with bitcoin you are your own bank but then I realized he wasn't ready for that, yet. I told him instead:

"I think you need some education before buying this shit." Then he left my place and he told me he'll wait for 6k to enter. xd which of course may never come.

See where I am getting to?

THIS IS STILL IN THE EARLY PHASE, WE ARE STILL THE EARLY ADOPTERS.

[Dabs]

Bitcoiner: Mathematics. Harder still.


(Just playing devil's advocate.)

More succinctly, more than ten thousand full nodes, more than hundreds of miners in dozens of mining pools in several countries, some not in good terms with each other or having some disputes over trade or territory, some not having any diplomatic relations with each other, all connected by the internet. Each one having its own government or military or police.

[Gyrsur]

softfork of Hairy MacBush's image puzzle.

Where is it located?



MicGoossens is allowed to guess twice a day because reasons.

[El duderino_]

Happy Preemptive New Years WOers !

A small competition to celebrate the ending of 2019 (and the bear season with it) and a welcome to 2020.  

As always, name this landmark.  It is a major global landmark.  Usual rules apply: 10 merits to first person to name location.  V8 is only allowed two guesses per day. More pixels added at random intervals.  The full picture is identifiable as the landmark.  

When is this pic taken normal always the day/moment itself, is this the same ?? Or an older pic??

[El duderino_]

softfork of Hairy MacBush's image puzzle.

Where is it located?



MicGossens is allowed to guess twice a day because reasons.

Not at my house, I have 6 of them in a row for reasons

[DeathAngel]

softfork of Hairy MacBush's image puzzle.

Where is it located?



MicGoossens is allowed to guess twice a day because reasons.

Your local public toilet & glory hole?

[Bossian]

Today a friend of mine (we graduated from the same college) told me that he wants to invest in bitcoin for a quick hit and run. Invest $5k, get out when its $7-8.

I said ok, there is nothing wrong about it. I too believe it will reach at least 9-10k once again in a year.

Then I showed him how I make my buys/sells on an exchange. Then he asked me a question:

"After you buy these bitcoins, at which bank do you keep them? ING?"

I was like, "Bruh..." I was going say that with bitcoin you are your own bank but then I realized he wasn't ready for that, yet. I told him instead:

"I think you need some education before buying this shit." Then he left my place and he told me he'll wait for 6k to enter. xd which of course may never come.

See where I am getting to?

THIS IS STILL IN THE EARLY PHASE, WE ARE STILL THE EARLY ADOPTERS.

The big big majority of Bitcoin buyers and Bitcoin holders are in the game to convert to fiat and cash out eventually, even the most enthusiastic holders in this thread (ivomm just posted a few hours ago about the price he would cash out all, and he is a fervent Bitcoin believer).

There is nothing wrong with your friend. Buying at 7k and selling at 8k is over 10% profit, if it is achieved within a month or two, that's a nice profit compared to big majority of stocks or even gold.
Furthermore, his question about banking is a very good one. Right now some banks refuse crypto transactions, or you may pay taxes depending on the country you reside in, so the temptation to hide your profits is real.

Banks I can recommend right now: Mistertango, Epayments, maybe Monese but need to double check their rules. Not Transferwise unfortunately.

[mindrust]

Today a friend of mine (we graduated from the same college) told me that he wants to invest in bitcoin for a quick hit and run. Invest $5k, get out when its $7-8.
I said ok, there is nothing wrong about it. I too believe it will reach at least 9-10k once again in a year.
Then I showed him how I make my buys/sells on an exchange. Then he asked me a question:
"After you buy these bitcoins, at which bank do you keep them? ING?"
I was like, "Bruh..." I was going say that with bitcoin you are your own bank but then I realized he wasn't ready for that, yet. I told him instead:
"I think you need some education before buying this shit." Then he left my place and he told me he'll wait for 6k to enter. xd which of course may never come.
See where I am getting to?
THIS IS STILL IN THE EARLY PHASE, WE ARE STILL THE EARLY ADOPTERS.

Dawg, the big big majority of Bitcoin buyers and Bitcoin holders are in the game to convert to fiat and cash out eventually, even the most enthusiastic holders in this thread (ivomm just posted a few hours ago about the price he would cash out all, and he is a fervent Bitcoin believer).

There is nothing wrong with your friend. Buying at 7k and selling at 8k is over 10% profit, if it is achieved within a month or two, that's a nice profit compared to big majority of stocks or even gold.

The story wasn't about that. I already told you there is nothing wrong about it. (making a quick buck)

What I'm saying is, he wants to invest in btc. He wants to get a piece from the action. He wants to get in cheap like everybody (me included)

But...

He has no IDEA I mean NONE about what bitcoin is and what it is capable of. NONE. ( I do)

These are the people who get slaughtered when btc goes south. He will always wait for a cheaper price to get in and it will never come. Because he doesn't understand what he is investing in.