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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21435127 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (129 posts by 23 users deleted.)
JayJuanGee
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How much alt coin diversification is needed? 0%?


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September 09, 2019, 05:37:28 PM
Merited by ssmc2 (5), mindrust (5), suchmoon (4), DaRude (3), fillippone (3), LoyceV (2), micgoossens (2), 600watt (1), LFC_Bitcoin (1), Wilhelm (1), Icygreen (1), Phil_S (1), ivomm (1), serveria.com (1), bkbirge (1), JSRAW (1), SuperTA (1)

Haven't really made my mind about it but for now I am planning to dump %15-20 of my stash for every $10k increment starting from $50k and make the final blow at $100k.


I think that you are: 1) valuing your wealth too much in dollars, 2) attempting to time the BTC price movement too much, which is a) failing to account for the possibility of BTC prices going above $100k and b) not going to be able to profit if BTC prices go above $100k.  Furthermore, if you establish a more sound plan, you will both be able to support the bitcoin infrastructure more and possibly even personally profit more, too.  

O.k.  I do not mean this as any kind of hostile message.  Instead, I intend to be a friendly collaborator to outline a possible better approach and way of thinking about cashing out during such uncertain BTC price dynamic times.

Accordingly, I suggest that you tweak your plan a little bit in order that you are not engaging in as much all or nothing kind of thinking and you strive to always keep some stash in bitcoin.  Of course, do whatever the fuck you like, it is your life... hahahhahahaha  This is not financial advice...hahahahahaha... even though it is.   Wink

Anyhow, instead of calculating dumping 15% to 20% of your stash from the amount of your original stash amount, calculate 15% to 25% from your stash balance as it evolves.  This is not going to cause a whole lot of difference in the amount that you cash out, but it will allow you to meaningfully stay in bitcoin in a variety of circumstances and thus to sufficiently hedge yourself.   Of course, you can tweak the numbers that I have outlined.

In other words, if you sell between 15% to 25% (which  I am going to readjust to 20% for calculation purposes) from the readjusted balance of your stash, you will never run out of bitcoin.  

Also, you are using $10k price increments which has the problem of 1) round numbers and 2) the problem of an amount that is set in terms of dollars which causes a lowering of the percentage each time you execute, so instead of calculating exact dollar increments, maybe you should start out selling BTC at around $47.5k (just in case BTC prices never (or take a long time) end up breaking above $50k), and then use something like 20% increments.  I got this 20% based on your $10k/$50k which is more or less 20% (of course, you can make the percentage lower or higher after you play around with it).

So I am giving a ballpark in which your sell ladder would look something like this:


Sell Price    BTC balance    BTCSell Amt  Pfolio$Value soldValue   soldTotal
$47,478.00   7.00000000      0.00000000   $332,346.00   $0.00           $0.00
$47,478.00   7.00000000      1.40000000   $332,346.00   $66,469.20   $66,469.20
$56,973.60   5.60000000      1.12000000   $319,052.16   $63,810.43   $130,279.63
$68,368.32   4.48000000      0.89600000   $306,290.07   $61,258.01   $191,537.65
$82,041.98   3.58400000      0.71680000   $294,038.47   $58,807.69   $250,345.34
$98,450.38   2.86720000      0.57344000   $282,276.93   $56,455.39   $306,800.73
$118,140.46   2.29376000      0.45875200   $270,985.85   $54,197.17   $360,997.90
$141,768.55   1.83500800      0.36700160   $260,146.42   $52,029.28   $413,027.18
$170,122.26   1.46800640      0.29360128   $249,740.56   $49,948.11   $462,975.29
$204,146.71   1.17440512      0.23488102   $239,750.94   $47,950.19   $510,925.48
$244,976.05   0.93952410      0.18790482   $230,160.90   $46,032.18   $556,957.66
$293,971.26   0.75161928      0.15032386   $220,954.47   $44,190.89   $601,148.56
$352,765.51   0.60129542      0.12025908   $212,116.29   $42,423.26   $643,571.81
$423,318.62   0.48103634      0.09620727   $203,631.64   $40,726.33   $684,298.14
$507,982.34   0.38482907      0.07696581   $195,486.37   $39,097.27   $723,395.42
$609,578.81   0.30786326      0.06157265   $187,666.92   $37,533.38   $760,928.80
As you can see from the chart, you would start out at some number, such as $47,478 and you would have a certain number of BTC that for this example I hypothesize to be 7BTC.   You would sell in 20% price increments 20% of the value of your then holdings.  In this hypothetical the dollar value of your BTC holdings goes down, but it does not go down to zero.  The BTC that you hold go down, too, but of course they are worth more at each upwards price interval.  You will see that over time, that you have an accumulated cashing out value that far exceeds your earlier HOLDing value, especially once the BTC price gets to $100k (assuming it does) but even moreso, if the BTC price were to get to 1/2 a $million... which surely might not happen, but surely it should not hurt too much to prepare for such possibility and even other possibilities that are far beyond our expectations (which we know sometimes happens in bitcoinlandia).

Of course, if you were to create a chart like this with the formulas already contained therein, then you can play around with the increments and the amounts in order to figure out more acceptable ways to achieve all of your goals (of course, provided that BTC's price cooperates).  In my thinking, it might be good to cash out an amount that also allows your BTC $ value to continue to go up no matter what, even if it is just a percentage or two of price appreciation.





Also I'll buy back every piece I dumped if the price goes $10k lower from where I sell the coins.

For example;

Sold %20 @ $50k. Now there are 2  possibilities.

 A) the price goes down for $10k to $40k and I buy back and increase the btc amount,
 B) It goes higher and reaches $60k. Then I'll domp et again another %16-17.

If A) happens in the first round  > back to hodling
If B) happens > again another 2 possibilities A) and B) but this time it's happening @ $60k.

Will probably play that game to maximize the profits till it reaches $100k. Not really decided on anything just thinking. I may completely ignore the "buy back" part too.


Your buy back part sounds reasonable; however, since you seem a little nervous about buying back, based on your last sentence, then maybe you should consider setting your buy back numbers to be quite extremely low, and if the BTC price never goes to such extremely low amounts, then you do not care, you just end up spending the fiat.  And, of course, if the price ends up going to your buy back numbers, then you are happy about that, too because you got a decent bargain in your buy back amount without even having to inject new fiat into your system.
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mindrust
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September 09, 2019, 05:39:04 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)


wall o text


I don't even need to read this before meriting it. Shut up and take my merits.

Merit first, read later.

edit: The numbers are (almost) matching too.  Grin
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September 09, 2019, 05:49:01 PM

Yeah, that’s a really good post by JJG. Well worth meriting!
JayJuanGee
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September 09, 2019, 06:07:56 PM

Here just got another one: Bitcoin rate is growing. Become a millionaire. Get a passive income of $ 3,500 per day   Cool

 Some people might think:  Oh $3,500 per day, I don't need that much, so even if the amount is only $350 per day, then I am good with that, so there must be some truth, even if the amount is not as much as they say, which filters out smarter peeps and really sucks in the dumbest of the dumbasses who are looking to be scammed.
JayJuanGee
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September 09, 2019, 06:17:56 PM

Haven't really made my mind about it but for now I am planning to dump %15-20 of my stash for every $10k increment starting from $50k and make the final blow at $100k.

Also I'll buy back every piece I dumped if the price goes $10k lower from where I sell the coins.

For example;

Sold %20 @ $50k. Now there are 2  possibilities.

 A) the price goes down for $10k to $40k and I buy back and increase the btc amount,
 B) It goes higher and reaches $60k. Then I'll domp et again another %16-17.

If A) happens in the first round  > back to hodling
If B) happens > again another 2 possibilities A) and B) but this time it's happening @ $60k.

Will probably play that game to maximize the profits till it reaches $100k. Not really decided on anything just thinking. I may completely ignore the "buy back" part too.

I think the trick here is to avoid the unprofitable Scenario 1 and stick to Scenario 2.

Scenario 1:


Scenario 2:


So I'm going to play the "buy back" game only if the price drops significantly, like 75%.

I have done something much closer to scenario 1 in BTC since 2015, and I have done quite well for myself.  Of course, if you look in retrospect, maybe I could have done better with scenario 2, but might also cause me to behave too extremely, too.

I think that jbreher (ignoring, for a moment, his dumbass bcash bullshit) follows a similar type of scenario 1 like system in BTC, which I believe is quite profitable for him, too, in terms of his BTC stash.  Again, who cares about the possibility of any of the application to bcash or the fact that jbreher has likely diverted some or too much value to bcash or the possible application to some other shitcoins, because the application to shit coins is largely irrelevant if not a disaster in the making.
JayJuanGee
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September 09, 2019, 06:19:49 PM



Oh gawd, Roach.  You are devolving into delirium.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
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September 09, 2019, 06:36:59 PM

Interesting article, ...
Quote
Central and commercial banks are the top dogs of the world’s largest market by trading volume—the $5-trillion-a-day foreign exchange (FX) market. A closer look at the balance of power in this global industry reveals how banks could manipulate, and even dominate, cryptocurrency in an unregulated market.
...
Through policy, central banks could incentivize their commercial underlings to realize Hal Finney’s “Bitcoin bank,” replicating the fractional-reserve banking system of today using BTC as reserve currency and effectively integrating it into the world of FX.

...
If banks enter the crypto market in force and employ some of the tactics they have evidently used to dominate FX—legitimate or mischievous—heavy implications could be in store for the price discovery of cryptocurrency. Ultimately, both commercial and central banks would profit from placing fiat-style controls over crypto and subjecting the market to the same dynamics at play in FX.
https://cryptoslate.com/will-banks-inevitably-control-the-cryptocurrency-market/
d_eddie
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September 09, 2019, 06:41:52 PM

Oh gawd, Roach.  You are devolving into delirium.   Roll Eyes Roll Eyes
Devolving? Revolving.
Last of the V8s
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September 09, 2019, 07:11:53 PM
Last edit: September 09, 2019, 07:51:47 PM by Last of the V8s

The only sport where I can sit through the whole damn thing.

It is a bit weird that Americans decided to adopt the word "football" for their sport. The foot connecting with the ball is a rarer part of the action.
Yeah I'm just about over that. In Rugby Football, which is a similar sport, it's often the way the players use their feet that marks them out as good players: the jinking run, the sidestep, the shimmy, the line and of course speed of attack; are all [edit:part of rugby] football, without kicking the thing.
Searing
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September 09, 2019, 07:35:20 PM

The only sport where I can sit through the whole damn thing.

It is a bit weird that Americans decided to adopt the word "football" for their sport. The foot connecting with the ball is a rarer part of the action.
Yeah I'm just about over that. In Rugby Football, which is a similar sport, it's often the way the players use their feet that marks them out as good players: the jinking run, the sidestep, the shimmy, the line and of course speed of attack; are all football, without kicking the thing.

There was a lot more 'punting' and 'field goal' kicking and running plays. Most passes were 'laterals' (sideways/behind small airborne handoffs).

The 'invention' of the true 'forward pass' is what really doomed the name football in football. Smiley


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forward_pass


HairyMaclairy
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September 09, 2019, 07:54:27 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If jbreher uses his intelligence to deceive people

Not at all. At least never intentionally.

Quote
or to to get caught in stupid-ass technical arguments

I guess it takes a self-described technical ignoramus to openly refer to technical arguments as 'stupid-ass'.

you have a significantly large amount of misleading and misinformation in your posts

You are wrong. There is no such thing as factual information that is misleading or misinforming. I present facts, and leave the editorializing to a minimum. Any mis- is in your misattribution of ulterior motive to my actions, which causes you to invent things in my writings that are not there.


I guess the courts must have it wrong when they ask witnesses to tell the whole truth.  

Quote
Do you solemnly (swear/affirm) that you will tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth, (so help you God/under pains and penalties of perjury)?

That’s your problem. You tell the selective, partial truth all the time, mixed with your opinion and supposition.  It is deliberately misleading.  You hide behind technical arguments which rely on narrow, outdated definitions.  

And then you get angry when you are called out. 
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September 09, 2019, 08:36:31 PM

Bitcoin over takes PayPal in annual transaction volume at $1.3 Trillion. It is spreading.

via Imgflip Meme Generator

https://twitter.com/miiyuwa/status/1170888288221184000?s=21
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September 09, 2019, 08:40:17 PM

via Imgflip Meme Generator
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September 09, 2019, 09:16:13 PM


.
.
.
... wall of text removed for your viewing pleasure...
.
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Sell Price    BTC balance    BTCSell Amt  Pfolio$Value soldValue   soldTotal
$47,478.00   7.00000000      0.00000000   $332,346.00   $0.00           $0.00
$47,478.00   7.00000000      1.40000000   $332,346.00   $66,469.20   $66,469.20
$56,973.60   5.60000000      1.12000000   $319,052.16   $63,810.43   $130,279.63
$68,368.32   4.48000000      0.89600000   $306,290.07   $61,258.01   $191,537.65
$82,041.98   3.58400000      0.71680000   $294,038.47   $58,807.69   $250,345.34
$98,450.38   2.86720000      0.57344000   $282,276.93   $56,455.39   $306,800.73
$118,140.46   2.29376000      0.45875200   $270,985.85   $54,197.17   $360,997.90
$141,768.55   1.83500800      0.36700160   $260,146.42   $52,029.28   $413,027.18
$170,122.26   1.46800640      0.29360128   $249,740.56   $49,948.11   $462,975.29
$204,146.71   1.17440512      0.23488102   $239,750.94   $47,950.19   $510,925.48
$244,976.05   0.93952410      0.18790482   $230,160.90   $46,032.18   $556,957.66
$293,971.26   0.75161928      0.15032386   $220,954.47   $44,190.89   $601,148.56
$352,765.51   0.60129542      0.12025908   $212,116.29   $42,423.26   $643,571.81
$423,318.62   0.48103634      0.09620727   $203,631.64   $40,726.33   $684,298.14
$507,982.34   0.38482907      0.07696581   $195,486.37   $39,097.27   $723,395.42
$609,578.81   0.30786326      0.06157265   $187,666.92   $37,533.38   $760,928.80
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...this space for rent...
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nah mate, you are doing it wrong... A real HODLER sells 7 BTC at $609,578.81 for a nice stack of $ 4,267,051.6 (fresh printed bills) and starts livin´ la vida loca.

Just kidding.. thats a very smart cash out program, and i should do that the next bullrun.
I´m living on ramen and noodles for being a HODLER since 2017...

micgoossens
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September 09, 2019, 09:53:06 PM

Bitcoin:
- Transferred $7 trillion in value
- Settled $2 trillion of TXs
- Reached $100 billion in average cost
- Rewarded miners $14 billion
- Hit $180 billion market value
- Produces 80 exahashes per sec

Why 𝐨𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐩𝐲 Wall Street when you can 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐥𝐚𝐜𝐞 it instead?

https://twitter.com/Rhythmtrader/status/1171026824182321152?s=20
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September 09, 2019, 09:57:54 PM

How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

Quote
I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

I am pretty confident the white paper doesn’t say anything about Turing completeness, legally enforceable smart contracts, token protocols,  large data storage capability and all the other shit in Bitcoin SV marketing

Yet interestingly, all fully supported in the 0.1 version of the Bitcoin protocol. You know, before the Cripple Rangers took control of the codebase. SegWit, on the other hand...

Funny, eh?

So what's the point you are trying to make?

My mistake.  I couldn't see any evidence of them in the white paper.  Thank you for clarifying that it doesn't matter whether something is mentioned in the whitepaper.

That is not what I said at all. Are you really that blind that you do not see what I am getting at? Even with your introduction of demonstrably flawed sidebars?

The initial implementation of Bitcoin - 0.1 supports all the features you list. Without recourse to explicit enabling code.
The initial implementation of Bitcoin -- and including up to and through the SegWit Omnibus Changeset Release -- did not support SegWit. Neither explicitly nor as an external implementation. Indeed, the implementation of SegWit was predicated on the most egregious change to the Bitcoin protocol ever enacted.
The features you list did not / do not require a change to the Bitcoin protocol.
SegWit did / does require a change to the Bitcoin protocol.

So when you say "it doesn't matter whether something is mentioned in the whitepaper", you're neither right nor wrong. What matters is the protocol itself. SegWit was undeniably a change to that protocol. A rather significant one. Therefore, somewhat 'less Bitcoin-y' -- at least on this axis -- than other implementations which hew to the original.

On the other hand, if some element is decidedly counter to the white paper (chain of digital signatures, anyone?), then that indeed does matter.

It’s hard to keep track of what you were saying when you keep changing it. 

Bullshit. I've been consistent. You've been persistent in finding new words to stick in my mouth.

wtf these new planes have jet engines, and cars have airbags?!?! But but none of this was in the original design!!!

OMG - but still TCP/IP ,  smtp, SWIFT, FIX  have not built in smart contracts - or did I miss u mix apples and crap?

Congrats you managed to fail on all levels, this is truly an accomplishment you should be proud of yourself

TCP/IP - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6
smtp - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_SMTP
SWIFT - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication#SWIFTNet_Phase_2
FIX - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FAST_protocol
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September 09, 2019, 10:15:07 PM

How could evidence of personal identity have anything whatsoever to do with evidence of protocol change?

Quote
I'm not sure if you're trolling or trying to be serious.

Back at ya.

See any evidence of SegWit in the white paper? No?

Explicitly in front of your face. Willful dereliction of truthiness.

SegWit was indeed an alteration of the Bitcoin protocol. Undeniably. There is really no way to argue otherwise.

I am pretty confident the white paper doesn’t say anything about Turing completeness, legally enforceable smart contracts, token protocols,  large data storage capability and all the other shit in Bitcoin SV marketing

Yet interestingly, all fully supported in the 0.1 version of the Bitcoin protocol. You know, before the Cripple Rangers took control of the codebase. SegWit, on the other hand...

Funny, eh?

So what's the point you are trying to make?

My mistake.  I couldn't see any evidence of them in the white paper.  Thank you for clarifying that it doesn't matter whether something is mentioned in the whitepaper.

That is not what I said at all. Are you really that blind that you do not see what I am getting at? Even with your introduction of demonstrably flawed sidebars?

The initial implementation of Bitcoin - 0.1 supports all the features you list. Without recourse to explicit enabling code.
The initial implementation of Bitcoin -- and including up to and through the SegWit Omnibus Changeset Release -- did not support SegWit. Neither explicitly nor as an external implementation. Indeed, the implementation of SegWit was predicated on the most egregious change to the Bitcoin protocol ever enacted.
The features you list did not / do not require a change to the Bitcoin protocol.
SegWit did / does require a change to the Bitcoin protocol.

So when you say "it doesn't matter whether something is mentioned in the whitepaper", you're neither right nor wrong. What matters is the protocol itself. SegWit was undeniably a change to that protocol. A rather significant one. Therefore, somewhat 'less Bitcoin-y' -- at least on this axis -- than other implementations which hew to the original.

On the other hand, if some element is decidedly counter to the white paper (chain of digital signatures, anyone?), then that indeed does matter.

It’s hard to keep track of what you were saying when you keep changing it. 

Bullshit. I've been consistent. You've been persistent in finding new words to stick in my mouth.

wtf these new planes have jet engines, and cars have airbags?!?! But but none of this was in the original design!!!

OMG - but still TCP/IP ,  smtp, SWIFT, FIX  have not built in smart contracts - or did I miss u mix apples and crap?

Congrats you managed to fail on all levels, this is truly an accomplishment you should be proud of yourself

TCP/IP - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv6
smtp - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extended_SMTP
SWIFT - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_for_Worldwide_Interbank_Financial_Telecommunication#SWIFTNet_Phase_2
FIX - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FAST_protocol

WTF is this ....  Huh
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September 09, 2019, 10:19:14 PM

Hey jbreher how would you spin EDA and bcash and BSv's current difficulty adjustment algos? what version did that come in?
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September 09, 2019, 10:23:08 PM

Actually, with a portfolio value at the start of just $332,346, he shouldn't be cashing out $66,469 in the first year, sequence of returns risk and all that. But then we don't know the situation of the hodler and might actually need the fiat.
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September 09, 2019, 10:43:51 PM

I used a oiga board it confirmed you are all gay.

But upside 10550 tomorrow


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