Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CoinDox]

Coins that don't exist cannot be dumped on other exchanges.

Hey Billy, are you Stateless Man?

http://imgur.com/QVLlGdq

[kkaspar]

"what will happen with their customers funds?"

That's the big one isn't it? By all accounts what Mt.Gox is holding in cash and coins is not equal to zero. No doubt even as they were shutting down some people had money transfers en route.

What I'm waiting to hear is how much of the money is actually lost and will there be a bail-out. If gox goes away without people losing their money, then this will have an positive effect. But if gox customers funds have dissipated, then we will hear from A LOT of very angry people. And a big part of this anger will be towards bitcoin, not mtgox. The link how bitcoin.org recommended mtgox as the main exchange will be discussed a lot and there will be lots of talks how bitcoin is actually a scam orchestrated by the exchange owners. This will inturn will activate every captain hindsight that will start yelling that they knew all along that bitcoin is a ponzi.
In conculsion, bitcoin will lose all of it's positive halo and it will be very hard to sell bitcoin after this.

[Adrian-x]

Why are mtgox developments still this big subject here? I thought we were just going to let mtgox die already and recover without it.

The recovery is slow and boring. Train wrecks are morbidly interesting.

Well, I think it is worth discussing exactly what happened so that we are not doomed to repeat it again.

If you aren't the sole controller of your private keys, you don't have any bitcoins.

Follow that simple rule and you will not be doomed to repeat it again.

/\ This is what is happening. Just read the two bit idiot (names like pirate ponzi and bit of an idiot seem to carry weigh in Bitcoin land.)

The two bit idiot - is calling Bitcoin dead because over 7% of coins in Bitcoin are stolen.
Effectively calling it over when what we have learned is be your own bank, and if you trust someone with your Bitcoin they better provided you with evidence to be worthy. Regulation can't solve that gap.

Be wary of the two-bit idiot guy. Just found some CONFIRMED bullshit in his gox blogs.

He says in this post from Wednesday 26th http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77920927310/i-retract-nothing-i-have-written-so-far-regarding-mt

SecondMarket was, in fact, approached by Mt. Gox some time last weekend.  Mark Karpeles approached Barry Silbert to solicit an acquisition offer, and it seems likely that Silbert, who had already committed privately to building a US-based exchange bitcoin exchange, jumped at the opportunity to explore the deal.

However, when the magnitude of the theft and potential fraud became free, Silbert and his team quickly pulled out of discussions, sent an email to all employees over the weekend banning them from buying or selling bitcoin indefinitely, and most likely reported the suspicious activity to the authorities.  As a regulated entity that probably signed a non-disclosure agreement before learning the full extent of the Mt. Gox damage, SecondMarket would have had no other choice, but to keep this out of the public eye, even if it was acting honestly behind the scenes.

[billyjoeallen]

Coins that don't exist cannot be dumped on other exchanges.

Hey Billy, are you Stateless Man?

http://imgur.com/QVLlGdq

No.

[CoinDox]

Why are mtgox developments still this big subject here? I thought we were just going to let mtgox die already and recover without it.

The recovery is slow and boring. Train wrecks are morbidly interesting.

Well, I think it is worth discussing exactly what happened so that we are not doomed to repeat it again.

If you aren't the sole controller of your private keys, you don't have any bitcoins.

Follow that simple rule and you will not be doomed to repeat it again.

/\ This is what is happening. Just read the two bit idiot (names like pirate ponzi and bit of an idiot seem to carry weigh in Bitcoin land.)

The two bit idiot - is calling Bitcoin dead because over 7% of coins in Bitcoin are stolen.
Effectively calling it over when what we have learned is be your own bank, and if you trust someone with your Bitcoin they better provided you with evidence to be worthy. Regulation can't solve that gap.

Be wary of the two-bit idiot guy. Just found some CONFIRMED bullshit in his gox blogs.

He says in this post from Wednesday 26th http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77920927310/i-retract-nothing-i-have-written-so-far-regarding-mt

SecondMarket was, in fact, approached by Mt. Gox some time last weekend.  Mark Karpeles approached Barry Silbert to solicit an acquisition offer, and it seems likely that Silbert, who had already committed privately to building a US-based exchange bitcoin exchange, jumped at the opportunity to explore the deal.

However, when the magnitude of the theft and potential fraud became free, Silbert and his team quickly pulled out of discussions, sent an email to all employees over the weekend banning them from buying or selling bitcoin indefinitely, and most likely reported the suspicious activity to the authorities.  As a regulated entity that probably signed a non-disclosure agreement before learning the full extent of the Mt. Gox damage, SecondMarket would have had no other choice, but to keep this out of the public eye, even if it was acting honestly behind the scenes.

I have been following his articles and I don't think his position is that BTC is dead. Also, to lend to his credibility, in this letstalkbtc podcast Charlie Schrem confirms his legitimacy. I am trying to find the exact time-mark right now, but it is around the 40 minute mark I think.

https://soundcloud.com/mindtomatter/ltb-e87-the-captive-and-the

[JayJuanGee]

NOW you are engaging in attacking the person and making labels rather than talking substance...   Maybe you are just arguing for the sake of it b/c you have made NO point, yet.. except to make attempts at criticizing me in some kind of aloof way... what is your point, exactly?  You are acting as if you has some high and mighty inside knowledge or what?    If so, give me your sources.

*sigh* I have in insight into human nature that others with the same insight recognize and others don't. Mark's behavior is only fathomable given one scenario, the one I outlined in multiple previous posts. I also have enough insight to predict that you find my evidence an reason insufficient and will continue to do so until the whole story comes out, but by then BTC will be several hundred dollars higher than now.

I know that sounds arrogant and condescending. I'm sorry. I'm not known to play well with others.

YES... your way of expressing seems arrogant and condescending, and maybe you are some kind of expert... NOTHING wrong with that...   ON the other hand, I do NOT see any meaningful purpose in the way you are expressing.. but to each his own.. b/c I am NOT going to let it get to me.. ... at least, NOT based on our few interactions, so far.  And, you may be correct about your hunch... .. .or whatever you want to call it.

Did you buy 1 bitcoin yet? That would make for some excitement

No.  And I must confess to something much worse than pontificating on bitcoin without ever having used it:

        I have served jury duty five times, all murder cases, without having murdered anyone before.

So, before I buy some bitcoin, I must fill that gap in my experience, in case I am again called to serve.  Would you volunteer?

YOU are being ridiculous.... with your comparison.. Certainly, I do NOT believe that a person has to experience everything to talk about it... but there are credibility questions.. and buying a bitcoin is in NO way like murder.

[600watt]

Why are mtgox developments still this big subject here? I thought we were just going to let mtgox die already and recover without it.

The recovery is slow and boring. Train wrecks are morbidly interesting.

Well, I think it is worth discussing exactly what happened so that we are not doomed to repeat it again.

If you aren't the sole controller of your private keys, you don't have any bitcoins.

Follow that simple rule and you will not be doomed to repeat it again.

/\ This is what is happening. Just read the two bit idiot (names like pirate ponzi and bit of an idiot seem to carry weigh in Bitcoin land.)

The two bit idiot - is calling Bitcoin dead because over 7% of coins in Bitcoin are stolen.
Effectively calling it over when what we have learned is be your own bank, and if you trust someone with your Bitcoin they better provided you with evidence to be worthy. Regulation can't solve that gap.

Be wary of the two-bit idiot guy. Just found some CONFIRMED bullshit in his gox blogs.

He says in this post from Wednesday 26th http://two-bit-idiot.tumblr.com/post/77920927310/i-retract-nothing-i-have-written-so-far-regarding-mt

SecondMarket was, in fact, approached by Mt. Gox some time last weekend.  Mark Karpeles approached Barry Silbert to solicit an acquisition offer, and it seems likely that Silbert, who had already committed privately to building a US-based exchange bitcoin exchange, jumped at the opportunity to explore the deal.

However, when the magnitude of the theft and potential fraud became free, Silbert and his team quickly pulled out of discussions, sent an email to all employees over the weekend banning them from buying or selling bitcoin indefinitely, and most likely reported the suspicious activity to the authorities.  As a regulated entity that probably signed a non-disclosure agreement before learning the full extent of the Mt. Gox damage, SecondMarket would have had no other choice, but to keep this out of the public eye, even if it was acting honestly behind the scenes.

second market is buying:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0;topicseen

[KeyserSoze]

Just a quick reminder for what´s about to come in the media in the next days.

Bitcoin is a trademark held by MtGox!

If MtGox get´s broke - Bitcoin get´s
If MtGox did get hacked - Bitcoin did
......

What? 

One of the reasons people trusted Gox. Some lawyer trademark poacher tried to grab the trademark but Gox took it to hold for "safe keeping."

[CoinDox]

Just a quick reminder for what´s about to come in the media in the next days.

Bitcoin is a trademark held by MtGox!

If MtGox get´s broke - Bitcoin get´s
If MtGox did get hacked - Bitcoin did
......

What? 

One of the reasons people trusted Gox. Some lawyer trademark poacher tried to grab the trademark but Gox took it to hold for "safe keeping."

Ah, ty for the clarification.

[Phinnaeus Gage]

nice pump

Wow. Urge to sell rising!

Can confirm cat is Mark's cat and thus conversation is not fake:

https://i.imgur.com/GqZr3N5.jpg

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AgWb-tk5aek#t=14

CONFIRMED!

The cat's name is Tibane. He named the fuckin parent company after his cat!

Lol. Which came first, the cat or the company?

Come on. Not a single BTC video? Disappointed, but that recent comment on his video was funny:
"Prepare your anus.  Downvotes are coming."

Boy, am I behind. I found this out on my own, just know finding this post and the various news articles discussing it. BTW, here's the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuZudZFmRgw

[kkaspar]

If it will be concluded as a fact, that mtgox customers lost their money, then there will be a shitstorm that BTC has never seen before.
To me, it's rather amusing how people try to downplay the entire situation.

There will be a shitstorm indeed.  However, if investors who thought they held 750,000 BTC* in aggregate realize they now hold 0, this revealed scarcity may blow the price in the upwards direction as easily as negative sentiment may push the price down.  


*Assuming this is true, of course.

At first there has to be an answer how did the funds from gox disappear. Were they stolen over years and sold at the market? Are the private keys lost?
But I think that if mtgox will fall, then the scarcity will have very little weight compared to the trust issues that emerge towards the entire market system. Most people they don't care how rare bitcoin is, they just care that their money is safe.

[Peter R]

Most people they don't care how rare bitcoin is, they just care that their money is safe.

I agree.  We really need to come up with some trustless system for storing and transferring value. 

[Phinnaeus Gage]

Also, please reply here https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=490029.0 if anybody recognizes this guy as a fellow Bitcoiner that used to (maybe still does) live with Mark.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z9H_x22QPTc

[CoinDox]

Most people they don't care how rare bitcoin is, they just care that their money is safe.

I agree.  We really need to come up with some trustless system for storing and transferring value. 

 

[KeyserSoze]

Boy, am I behind. I found this out on my own, just know finding this post and the various news articles discussing it. BTW, here's the video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FuZudZFmRgw

Oh, there's a storm headed your way for sure, Mark...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzmrWONvxck

[kkaspar]

I think many people are once again going to be surprised at how resilient Bitcoin is.

Let's check back in six months, shall we?

"Bitcoin will succeed! I don't know how, but it must!"
This mentality is the reason why people tend to see bitcoin as an cult. Too much forced belief in dogmas.

[CoinDox]

If they use Bitcoin properly, their money is probably safer than any other asset they own.

From a technical perspective, I agree with you 100%. But you can't with all honesty say that assets stored in BTC are as safe as Fed Bonds. Now before you go and start describing how completely fabricated the US monetary system is, I am not saying it is not as fickle as you know it is. All I am saying, is that there is a lot more power behind one than the other...

[kkaspar]

If they use Bitcoin properly, their money is probably safer than any other asset they own.

The bitcoin market system is the thing that gives bitcoin value. Otherwise it would just be play money that can be used for fun. If the market system can't be trusted to transfer value between $ and BTC, then no new value will come to BTC and the existing value will slowly start to flow out.
Sure your bitcoins will be safe in your cold wallet, but they don't have much $ value without a decent market system.

[darbsllim]

@thelema93

[10:58] <JonWickedFire> Is that Crisis Strategy Draft even legit?
[11:04] <MagicalTux> more or less
[11:05] <MagicalTux> as the name suggests it's a draft, and it's a bunch of proposals to deal with the issue at hand, not things that are actually planned and/or done

which channel is this from?

http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/02/25/mt-gox-ceo-says-on-internet-chat-hasnt-given-up/

From reading this chat log (if its authentic) I immediately come to the following conclusions:

• They did not have a cold wallet, it was one huge hot wallet, implemented by MT.
• Occasionally it lost (or failed to store correctly or deleted¹) private keys of its own change outputs ('not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable')
• He seems to believe the keys are still there somewhere buried deeply somewhere in his database server ('We haven't given up')

_____________________
¹) This is how I imagine their wallet worked (and how it fucked up):

User initiates withdrawal:

* debit amount from user account
* generate new private key for change address and create tx
* store tx in database (indexed by txid)
* store private key in database (indexed by address, foreign_key=txid)
* push tx to network

a week later (cron job)

* for all unconfirmed tx older than 1 week:
*     credit BTC back to customer account
*     delete "invalid" tx
*         -> cascaded delete "unused" change address and its private key (ouch!)

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

I've found corroborating evidence that this irc chat actually happened. I initially thought this IRC chat was suspect, especially with the picture of the cat on the keyboard...it wouldn't be hard to fake an IRC chat...but it's more difficult to fake Mark Karpeles's keyboard.

I was watching CBC news and I saw what looked like the exact same keyboard with some stock footage of Mark Karpeles at mtgox headquarters.

The replay of the segment is up here: http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2439580476/

Here's the screenshot of Mark K's desk at mtgox from this CBC segment. http://grab.by/uF4M

And here's the kitty cat pic for reference: http://imgur.com/r/Bitcoin/GqZr3N5

Here's an old video of Mark K's cat on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81QkfGpHeyQ

Either the irc chat was faked and someone did extensive research and prepared the correct prop keyboard and correct prop cat, or that pic really is Mark Karpeles's keyboard and cat.

At this point, I'm thinking that irc chat actually happened.

[CoinDox]

@thelema93

[10:58] <JonWickedFire> Is that Crisis Strategy Draft even legit?
[11:04] <MagicalTux> more or less
[11:05] <MagicalTux> as the name suggests it's a draft, and it's a bunch of proposals to deal with the issue at hand, not things that are actually planned and/or done

which channel is this from?

http://www.wickedfire.com/shooting-shit/179038-my-conversation-mark-karpeles-mtgox-2.html

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2014/02/25/mt-gox-ceo-says-on-internet-chat-hasnt-given-up/

From reading this chat log (if its authentic) I immediately come to the following conclusions:

• They did not have a cold wallet, it was one huge hot wallet, implemented by MT.
• Occasionally it lost (or failed to store correctly or deleted¹) private keys of its own change outputs ('not "lost" just yet, just temporarily unavailable')
• He seems to believe the keys are still there somewhere buried deeply somewhere in his database server ('We haven't given up')

_____________________
¹) This is how I imagine their wallet worked (and how it fucked up):

User initiates withdrawal:

* debit amount from user account
* generate new private key for change address and create tx
* store tx in database (indexed by txid)
* store private key in database (indexed by address, foreign_key=txid)
* push tx to network

a week later (cron job)

* for all unconfirmed tx older than 1 week:
*     credit BTC back to customer account
*     delete "invalid" tx
*         -> cascaded delete "unused" change address and its private key (ouch!)

run 2 years until wallet is dry, all supposed UTXO turn out to be STXO and all real UTXO are in nirvana already.

I've found corroborating evidence that this irc chat actually happened. I initially thought this IRC chat was suspect, especially with the picture of the cat on the keyboard...it wouldn't be hard to fake an IRC chat...but it's more difficult to fake Mark Karpeles's keyboard.

I was watching CBC news and I saw what looked like the exact same keyboard with some stock footage of Mark Karpeles at mtgox headquarters.

The replay of the segment is up here: http://www.cbc.ca/player/News/TV%20Shows/The%20National/ID/2439580476/

Here's the screenshot of Mark K's desk at mtgox from this CBC segment. http://grab.by/uF4M

And here's the kitty cat pic for reference: http://imgur.com/r/Bitcoin/GqZr3N5

Here's an old video of Mark K's cat on youtube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=81QkfGpHeyQ

Either the irc chat was faked and someone did extensive research and prepared the correct prop keyboard and correct prop cat, or that pic really is Mark Karpeles's keyboard and cat.

At this point, I'm thinking that irc chat actually happened.

Welcome to 12 hours ago. No offense.

*edit: That was harsh, I apologize. Though everything you stated has already been mentioned in the last 20 or so pages, I think it is nice that you put it all together in a neat viewing package for those just tuning in.