Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biro Bob]

Cool! I just noticed my bid for XMR at 0.0065 got filled and that its 0.0074 now... nice!

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[d_eddie]

Anyways... wake me up when 1BTC != 1BTC. That will be really interesting.

Slightly off topic:

A math meme that is funny rather than stupid:
Solve carefully!
     230 - 220 x 0.5 =

You probably won't believe it, but the answer is 5!

Source:

*SPOILER ALERT*
https://twitter.com/3j0hn/status/913447235534315520

what the hell is that nonsense about

It's about Factorials.

This example was made trickier by the fact that by grouping operators incorrectly (as in (230-220) * 0.5), you get 5.

[LUCKMCFLY]

It is true, anything can happen, the fact that the situation of the Virus is improving in China is not a guarantee of anything, there is still a lot of panic and it is reflected in the markets.

According to Mayer Multiple Price Bands #Bitcoin got extremely close to the "oversold" level at $4.9k on 12th March (closing price).

Oversold condition will be met @ closing price <=$4.7k (0.55x the 200 DMA).

Note: Be cautious, current macro situation could cause "trend" break.

Source: https://twitter.com/CryptoKea/status/1238821057366085644

[d_eddie]

Or mixed with glycerin.

Or just use the alcohol straight. No, wait... are we talking about cleaning the hands or cleaning the asshole? The distinction is important in this case.

no, it is important to mix the ethanol with water: 30%water - 70%ethanol

if you use 100% ethanol it will evaporate to quickly to be able to kill the virus. if mixed with water as above described, it will evaporate slow enough to kill corona.

Maybe the dilution is more about conserving alcohol than extending treatment duration?

I don't know about glycerin, but I think ethanol/water solutions have the property that alcohol evaporates faster, leaving a more and more watery solution in liquid form. Can anyone confirm?

[Biodom]

According to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
in the last 2 days nearly 1 mil bitcoins were traded (mainly sold) at the main exchanges excluding Binance. On Binance the volume was 400K each day, so we can safely assume more than 2 mil. bitcoins were traded. This is a huge amount and the question is how the market will adjust to this enormous inflow of bitcoins. I don't have a subscription to glassnode to see how many new bitcoins were deposited into the exchanges, normally it is between 15K and 40K, with a daily peak 444K in Dec 2018. After a month the chart will be accesible for non paid users, if anyone has a subscription can check and share what was the peak this time.

On one hand it seems logical to take more time to return above 10K and hold it. On the other hand, these bitcoins are now into a very strong and patient investors. These people are not like the new generation of theoretical traders who think it is easy to make profits. Emotions like greed and fear play a main role, and untrained will crack under the pressure. Experienced investors put their bids low and waited for a year in this case to get them filled. So hardly they will be chasing 10-20% or even 100% profits. Now, when the price starts to recover, the burnt traders and the whole world will see that even in utmost panic Bitcoin didn't go to 0 and no matter the fall it recovers really fast. This lesson will make the weak hands stronger, if they have the guts to enter the game again. So IMO not only a new bull run starts right now, but a whole new bull cycle lasting for years. May be this was the real end of the bear market. How far we will go is a question that honestly I can't answer. All charts and short term predictions were shattered. The good thing is that Bitcoin is not dead and doesn't care about these predictions.

Your thesis is that it was something similar (only worse) to January 2015.
I would hope so, but it remains to be seen (aftershocks, etc.).
It's an opportunity, but also a challenge.
If bitcoin comes out of it strong, so much for the better, but if it weakens vs newcomers, then future is uncertain.
Strangely enough, the dominance did not change much during the ordeal, which was surprising to me. I expected a strong increase.
The main competitor, though, had something terrible happened (in defi app, cough-Maker-cough), so that's that.

[fillippone]

I would like to add a few detail to my miner capitulation hypothesis on recent market crash

A very interesting graph is the one found on https://hodl.camp/:


(the version on the site is totally interactive)

It represents the time after which the HODL stays in profit (green) or loss (red).
As you can see in the previous cycle, even after buying on the highs, after 3 and a half years HODER buying at the ATH turned into profit.
Having been the ATH in December 2017, it would mean that to match this record, the  brakeven on an ATH buy would be into profit in June 2021.

Three and a half years is a number that reminds us of the halving cycle, every 4 years.

In my humble opinion, we will not have to wait fo too long, given that, thanks to @PlanB, many more people are aware of the halving mechanics, and therefore the cycle will be "anticipated" as more people will try to profit from increased SF after thye halving.

Clearly, this scenario was particularly challenged by the recent price dynamics.

@PlanB a couple of days ago noticed the large increase in bitcoins traded on the exchanges.

On chain BTCmoved per block (last 10 days /1440 blocks).
Red boxes today:
- block 621259: 600k + btc moved
- block 621358: 200k + btc moved
- since price drop (11:00 GMT + 1) 10k-100k btc per block (that is 10x normal volume)
Who has more info & insight on this?

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1238203443015270402?s=20

A graphic that comes to your rescue is that of the hodlwaves:



Each band represents an age of UTXOSs. From the blue ones, which are almost stable (they are the "Satoshi bitcoins" never moved since the beginning), and gradually they go towards the red, that is the ones moved more recently.
So let's say that when the graph becomes more "blue" the hodlers hold on and the age of the coins "increases", while when the graph becomes more "red" it means that the trading activity is increasing.

If we zoom in to last week, we see that in fact the red UTXO increase:



And we see that in fact the situation returns to be "stable" in the 6/12M range, so those who sold had bought for less than 6 months.
So it was #weakhands liquidation, because by crossing with the previous graph we see that they were at a loss.
In my opinion they were longs strategically placed  who had focused on halving, going into stop loss with the collapse of the market (triggered by other reasons in my opinion).

EDIT: As pointed out by Yefi the graphs are not updated yet to fully show the crash. We will have a better picture onmce all the data has been processed.
Well, the plan didn't came togheter:



This is the impressive amounts of liquidations.
One reassuring  fact is the drop in OI in futures: this means the drop caused liquidation in long positions, rather that opening of short positions:



Summarising, my miner capitulation hypothesis still hold tue, in my opinion.

[DaRude]

Global markets will continue to go down, but at certain point bitcoin will stop sliding, and that moment will be beautiful, as next it will start going violently up

[El duderino_]

Wow Spain on house arrest, 3k fine for who goes on the streets....

[AlcoHoDL]

According to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
in the last 2 days nearly 1 mil bitcoins were traded (mainly sold) at the main exchanges excluding Binance. On Binance the volume was 400K each day, so we can safely assume more than 2 mil. bitcoins were traded. This is a huge amount and the question is how the market will adjust to this enormous inflow of bitcoins. I don't have a subscription to glassnode to see how many new bitcoins were deposited into the exchanges, normally it is between 15K and 40K, with a daily peak 444K in Dec 2018. After a month the chart will be accesible for non paid users, if anyone has a subscription can check and share what was the peak this time.

On one hand it seems logical to take more time to return above 10K and hold it. On the other hand, these bitcoins are now into a very strong and patient investors. These people are not like the new generation of theoretical traders who think it is easy to make profits. Emotions like greed and fear play a main role, and untrained will crack under the pressure. Experienced investors put their bids low and waited for a year in this case to get them filled. So hardly they will be chasing 10-20% or even 100% profits. Now, when the price starts to recover, the burnt traders and the whole world will see that even in utmost panic Bitcoin didn't go to 0 and no matter the fall it recovers really fast. This lesson will make the weak hands stronger, if they have the guts to enter the game again. So IMO not only a new bull run starts right now, but a whole new bull cycle lasting for years. May be this was the real end of the bear market. How far we will go is a question that honestly I can't answer. All charts and short term predictions were shattered. The good thing is that Bitcoin is not dead and doesn't care about these predictions.

Your thesis is that it was something similar (only worse) to January 2015.
I would hope so, but it remains to be seen (aftershocks, etc.).
It's an opportunity, but also a challenge.
If bitcoin comes out of it strong, so much for the better, but if it weakens vs newcomers, then future is uncertain.
Strangely enough, the dominance did not change much during the ordeal, which was surprising to me. I expected a strong increase.
The main competitor, though, had something terrible happened (in defi app, cough-Maker-cough), so that's that.

I accidentally sent you a merit... It was meant for fillippone.

All the better for you!

[VB1001]

The Trump administration is extending their travel ban to include the United Kingdom and Ireland. ​
Earlier this week, the United States announced a 30-day ban on travellers from European countries.

https://twitter.com/GlobalBC/status/1238871173322149890

[VB1001]

Wow Spain on house arrest, 3k fine for who goes on the streets....

We are going to fuck 24/7

[Biodom]

According to https://data.bitcoinity.org/markets/volume/30d?c=e&t=b
in the last 2 days nearly 1 mil bitcoins were traded (mainly sold) at the main exchanges excluding Binance. On Binance the volume was 400K each day, so we can safely assume more than 2 mil. bitcoins were traded. This is a huge amount and the question is how the market will adjust to this enormous inflow of bitcoins. I don't have a subscription to glassnode to see how many new bitcoins were deposited into the exchanges, normally it is between 15K and 40K, with a daily peak 444K in Dec 2018. After a month the chart will be accesible for non paid users, if anyone has a subscription can check and share what was the peak this time.

On one hand it seems logical to take more time to return above 10K and hold it. On the other hand, these bitcoins are now into a very strong and patient investors. These people are not like the new generation of theoretical traders who think it is easy to make profits. Emotions like greed and fear play a main role, and untrained will crack under the pressure. Experienced investors put their bids low and waited for a year in this case to get them filled. So hardly they will be chasing 10-20% or even 100% profits. Now, when the price starts to recover, the burnt traders and the whole world will see that even in utmost panic Bitcoin didn't go to 0 and no matter the fall it recovers really fast. This lesson will make the weak hands stronger, if they have the guts to enter the game again. So IMO not only a new bull run starts right now, but a whole new bull cycle lasting for years. May be this was the real end of the bear market. How far we will go is a question that honestly I can't answer. All charts and short term predictions were shattered. The good thing is that Bitcoin is not dead and doesn't care about these predictions.

Your thesis is that it was something similar (only worse) to January 2015.
I would hope so, but it remains to be seen (aftershocks, etc.).
It's an opportunity, but also a challenge.
If bitcoin comes out of it strong, so much for the better, but if it weakens vs newcomers, then future is uncertain.
Strangely enough, the dominance did not change much during the ordeal, which was surprising to me. I expected a strong increase.
The main competitor, though, had something terrible happened (in defi app, cough-Maker-cough), so that's that.

I accidentally sent you a merit... It was meant for fillippone.

All the better for you!

here, have it back

[OutOfMemory]

Where we going at  

Probably going to win the halvening prediction game?  
But i don't really want to, if you know what i mean...

These insecure times will shake out quite some hands, i guess. But after that, slow recovery should take place and depending on the world economy sentiment, we could moon again. 2021 ATH may be cancelled, though. 2022-2024 will probably take us to flying heights again.
We'll see, we'll hodl.

Holy shit Oom, 2021 is quite a fucking long way away.. I mean we have more than 9 months before entering and another 12 months

(let's see maths)..

which would be 21 months before exiting...

Holy shit.. you think that we might not make ATH before then?  Bossian is going to take LFC's money?  Omg.. omg... Never would have thunk, and still I have a hard time going down that belief.. .we are not even really outside of the stock to flow model or the four year fractal model or other convincing BTC price prediction models that would suggest that we have decent chances of even getting to new ATH in this calendar year or even in early 2021... jeez, louise...  

I just think of something like an ATH delay. Mainly because of market insecurities and (big) miner politics. S2F is a model that has to prove itself at least for another market cycle, starting with capitulation before halvening, which we kind of already had 2019, but maybe not. Maybe capitulation is now. But who is clearing 9 year old addresses? I don't have the links here on my PC, and maybe titter is a source nobody can really trust, but i guess somebody will sum up the recent market events in a nice summary, which will hopefully be found by a WO member and linked here.

Bossian... You know by now, i hate to hate people. But i would so much like to see him lose the bet.

[OutOfMemory]

Global markets will continue to go down, but at certain point bitcoin will stop sliding, and that moment will be beautiful, as next it will start going violently up

& that is the moment i want to catch to buy. Tax refund fiat incoming in 3... 2... 1... (weeks, unfortunately).

[HairyMaclairy]

Americans have very short attention spans so I suspect that this Corona thing will end in a couple of weeks.

The longer it lasts the more they will be willing to sacrifice whatever they can to make it just finish already.

The media hype will get desperate for attention but likely they will find some new shiny story to focus on.

It will be a problem for most, if not all of, 2020.  

[xhomerx10]

Wow Spain on house arrest, 3k fine for who goes on the streets....

We are going to fuck 24/7

 I doubt it.  I hear the Italians are singing from their balconies.  If they're not able to do it 24/7 then it's unpossible.

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good evening WO!
Observing @ $5,408

Are we going to move sideways for a while?

[Indymoney]

Wow Spain on house arrest, 3k fine for who goes on the streets....

We are going to fuck 24/7

 I doubt it.  I hear the Italians are singing from their balconies.  If they're not able to do it 24/7 then it's unpossible.

I was happy with this 24/7 but now as Italian start singing from balconies its frustrated.

[Phil_S]

"The price of any commodity tends to gravitate toward the production cost." - Satoshi Nakomoto

I think by the end of 2020 the dust will clear, and... we'll see.

[Elwar]

https://twitter.com/ChrisPacia/status/1237821675728777221

Ebay not allowing people to sell masks or hand sanitizer.

OpenBazaar users not affected.