Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[El duderino_]

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[1715602008]

1715602008

[1715602008]

1715602008

[1715602008]

1715602008

[El duderino_]

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[LFC_Bitcoin]

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Rumours we are set to go into forced isolation for 2 weeks starting on Friday. I’m going to pay all our bills tomorrow & then go & get a load of food, booze & some cocaine

[Biodom]

OT: Yeah sure, let's bailout the airlines again... ugh  

Where is the public outrage??  

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-16/u-s-airlines-spent-96-of-free-cash-flow-on-buybacks-chart

I wonder if times such as these will eventually lead to stricter rules about public companies - such as after-the-fact voiding of manager bonuses, forced state repossession of nonconforming companies and similar draconian laws. Seeing what is being imposed on the general population in the name of the common good, which is quite close to enforcing police state rules, I'd say it wouldn't be too far fetched.

It's not going to play like in 2008.

the Pound is tanking. 

GBP/USD ATL from 2016 is broken.

maybe because UK money managers were discussing closing the markets.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Well we can't have the whales thinking they beat us. Thanks for the good luck wishes. You win some you lose some I guess.

From what I have been trying to gather about how successful leveraged and margin players operate is that they bank on a certain number of losses, but that the wins are going to statistically out-number the losses, but I suppose if you have a series of down streaks, then you might find out that your theory is not working out too well in practice.. It is kind of like the Martingale betting method, such martingale method can work for a long-ass time and be very profitable, until it is not... and then all of a sudden, all or most of the principle is gone, so it is very difficult to build back principle, once it is gone.

Surely, I am NOT proclaiming my own system to be fool proof because a policy and practice that continues to accumulate bitcoin, by DCA'ing, buying on dips and even stacking profits in terms of BTC rather than dollars is going to presume that at some point the BTC is going to go up in value.. whether that is a long term play or at least for a long enough period to be able to get out (all or some).

Accordingly, so far, bitcoin has shown a largely upwards trajectory, yet I also presume that anyone getting into bitcoin as a newbie can employ such similar practice as I am advocating, because the overall presumption and fundamentals of bitcoin seem to be strong enough, and surely these days, I am recommending at least a 4 year investment time horizon, and surely newbies who do not have a lot of capital (or maybe even those who have gambled away their principle) should be able to profit with a consistent DCA, buying on dips and stacking wealth in bitcoins practice(s) that goes out for a long enough time horizon that bitcoin remains quite likely to continue on some kind of upwards trajectory.

So, let's hypothesize that there is some undermining of the current BTC price prediction models**, and this particular negative or flat trend lasts for longer than 4 years, and it takes us until 2024 or 2028 halvening to get back to a new ATH.  Accordingly, I am not sure if bitcoin would be dead, but it would then end up causing some people to have to have a longer investment timeline before they are able to begin to cash out some or all of their bitcoin.. so even if they are plodding away at $100 per month or some other relatively small amount of cash injected into bitcoin, they still should be able to be in a decent position down the road, but maybe just on a longer time horizon.... but don't get me wrong, there is still not any kind of convincing evidence that our current BTC price prediction models are either invalid or are going to be undermined or challenged in any kind of substantive and meaningful way. 

So, even if this next BTC price rise does not end up being as high as expected or it is drug out a bit longer than expected, the most convincing evidence remains that we are still largely on track with our current BTC price prediction models.

**current BTC price prediction models = repetitively, I have been referring to: 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking/Metcalfe principles

[El duderino_]

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The dude = back in business

[JayJuanGee]

A BTC-pump would be so nice to witness in these times 

If BTC just holds its own or goes up slightly or gradually (especially during these ongoing stock market plummeting times), then that is going to be bullish as fuck for bitcoin and the likely non-correlated theoretical assertion that is shown in practice... which would likely continue to cause more gravitation of value into bitcoin, without even a need for any kind of exponential pumpening....

Of course, there are still likely going to be future periods of outrageous BTC pumpenings, but I doubt that right now would be the time to expect such.. and it might not even be good if such pumpening is too outrageously out of line with overall macro market dynamics.

[Biodom]

Still, 10year and 30 year notes/treasuries are going in the WRONG direction.
I talked about it before, and here is planB on twitter with graphs:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD

This inhibits potential re-fi activities.

[nullius]

It’s time to start drinking!

Do they explain how to get liquor in a liquor ban?

I'm not worried about getting sick, I'm worried about maintaining one of my longest running hobbies.

You f*cking alcoholic 😘
May be you can ask this question. That young doctor seems very knowledgeable.

Quoted wildly out of context for the sake of humour:

I haven't seen a doctor in years - even though I probably should - but thanks for your concern.

Don’t panic, nutildah.  All Oceana will soon be flooded with the needed fuel for a perpetual war against Eurasia Eastasia Eurasia Eastasia Eurasia (why, yes: my crystal ball says that tensions between America and China are a feint, and the real risk of war is in Eurasia).

There's now talk of universal basic income. This means that very soon we will be a leading exporter of poorly made tractors, sour cabbage and Victory Gin.

Dry Ice

I think that is now the canonical expression of true love:  You will risk contracting coronavirus so that you can come closer than officially mandated social-distancing distance.

Either that, or an expression of the fact that you think with the little head.


Anybody notice how it is now considered healthy to be isolated from other human beings?

 I don't believe any of us doubt your ability to compose a lengthy disquisition on the differences between healthy and prudent.  Are you trolling us, Nullius?

If by “trolling”, you mean a “using ambiguously sarcastic,^* ‘Hah, hah—only serious!’ style of observations to incite people to think,” then yes.  Politically dangerous satirists have done not dissimilarly throughout history.  There is no harm in observing this openly:  The shepherds are not as stupid as the sheep, anyway.

No matter what I do, 99% of people will miss 99% of the deeper substance in my posts.  I may as well make the form entertaining!  Those who can get it, will get it, nevertheless.  E.g., this is one of the top-ten most serious observations that I have ever made on this forum:

All Oceana will soon be flooded with the needed fuel for a perpetual war against Eurasia Eastasia Eurasia Eastasia Eurasia (why, yes: my crystal ball says that tensions between America and China are a feint, and the real risk of war is in Eurasia).

99% of people will simply chuckle, and scroll on.

* Ambiguously sarcastic, only in the sense that you must think hard about which direction my sarcasm is aimed in.  Many of my posts could be read both ways—including the one that you quoted.  —  Unambiguously sarcastic, in the sense that many of my most dangerously serious observations are undoubtedly packed for delivery on dry-ice sarcasm.

On Socially Distant Networking:  “Too Sober, Didn’t Read”

Anybody notice how it is now considered healthy to be isolated from other human beings?

What? How about 2 thumbs on a cellphone? Isn't that "social"?

🛑 Stop, citizen!  You are too sober:  You look like you’ve had a bit too much to think.  For the sake of your mental health, a peace officer from the Ministry of Love Social-Distancing “Social” Networking will soon enroll you in re-education about the virtues of being an isolated individual atom, ever alone in a crowd, a self-esteemed snowflake adrift in a blizzard—i.e., the perfectly docile and powerless slave.

* nullius hands Jimbo the bottle of Victory Gin—and yes, I just took a swig straight out of it—and I think that if you share drinks with strangers, you should generally be more worried about herpes simplex than about coronavirus.  No, I don’t want the bottle back.  Keep it, with my compliments.  You said that you are old and wise, which means that you were once young and foolish—and that means you are at high risk of having been a 60s hippie—and that would mean a high risk that you carry oral herpes.  No offense.  Keep the bottle; it’s almost empty, anyway.

[bitserve]

Can't go outside after 8 PM, no alcohol, this virus is brutal.

Try not to listen the media much. There are few YT videos which make sense and spending some times to watch them may give you some peace and of-course to learn some truth.

Do they explain how to get liquor in a liquor ban?

I'm not worried about getting sick, I'm worried about maintaining one of my longest running hobbies.

We should have never stopped making our own liquor.

Have you tried contacting some drug dealer? I think they have their own independent supply chains and probably have access to anything their clients could need even if not their usual product line.

Also I can't believe only a few days into the lockdown and you have already run down all your reserves?  

[efialtis]

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The dude = back in business

Lol, hahahaha - I was just watching how football players (yes football, not soccer ) spend their time while in quarantine... and wanted to share in another thread but now it fits perfectly,... TOILET PAPER CHALLENGE! 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uWp2e5HilYI&feature=emb_logo

[Torque]

Social Distancing def.- when your company wants you as far away from the office as possible, so that when HR sends you your pink slip, you can't go postal on them or inject a virus into the IT network.

[infofront]

The money printing doesn't matter. It's the confidence in the currency and the country that backs it that matters.

Yep, exactly.

Also, lack of confidence in the alternatives.

Which is why having a Moron in Chief at the helm is a very bad thing. If money is backed by confidence and confidence is zero then money is zero.

Gee, who would have thought that electing a moron would not be a bad idea?
(Me in 2008)

That doesn't explain the fact that the US Dollar is absolutely crushing everything right now - stocks, precious metals, bitcoin, bonds, and every other currency.

[fillippone]

Still, 10year and 30 year notes/treasuries are going in the WRONG direction.
I talked about it before, and here is planB on twitter with graphs:

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD

This inhibits potential re-fi activities.

This is the symprom of the malfuctioning plumbing of financial system.
Whatever the FED can possibly do, there are currently too many reasons to be long cash, and then liquidating assets.
Cash is king, every quasi-cash instument (like short end US bonds, is noted as very different.
Everybody need cash to stick up against outbreak in lockdown cities, and pension  funds longs asset need cash to post that as collateral against assets losses.


Edit:
Banks are running out of cash, literally:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8113389/NYC-bank-temporarily-runs-100-bills-customers-withdraw-cash-amid-Wall-Street-crash.html

[JayJuanGee]

I don't know how d_eddie is playing during these times, but he seemed to have had a very prudent system in which he was constantly taking winnings off of the table

I'm laying low. I got my long liquidated on the latest violent downturn, and my take profit limit on the short was a little too prudent to make up for it. However, I'd kept putting sats away in the meantime, so all in all I'm still up. I bought more physical than usual in the 7ks. I could have saved a bit more for now, but if we knew the future we'd all be rich like fuck wouldn't we? I still have some dry powder left, and will keep stacking physical sats little by little.

I'm still convinced we will prevail. It's just that no one has a friggin' idea of the timeline, whatever they say.

I appreciate your honesty (or at least it appears to be genuine, in that we can never know for sure on the interwebs).

Your system did seem to work pretty damned well during the 2018 correction, and maybe even a bit into the 2019 bounce back, but of course, the overall BTC price dynamics seemed to have had gotten confusing, even though it might appear to be clear to be able to describe what happened, after the fact.

One thing that I had liked about your system was that you were seeming to build on what I was doing, but just to amplify it by being able to profit from both longs and shorts, and surely my system can hardly profit at all from shorts unless I deviate from such system for a short period of time because I identify some kind of short term opportunity and inject a bit more in one direction or another based on such short term insight (which rarely comes to me, in actual practice... might be because I am dumb or want to remain dumb with the employment of my system).

Another problem with your system did seem to be the amount of time that such employment of the system required to attempt to maintain, and surely your system may have served its purpose to allow you more knowledge of how to attempt to employ the various tools that are available, and maybe a benefit, also, could be if you did not lose very much (or you gained some) while learning about how to use those tools. Sometimes it is very difficult to learn anything, unless there is some personal stake in the game, so frequently, I will advocate that people put at least some of their own money into what they are attempting to do, so even if they do not make a killing, they are able to more concretely learn through active participation and engagement rather than some of those tools that might be available to practice without anything personally at stake.

Some peeps here might recall that when I began to employ the selling component of my system in late 2015, I really had small stakes and even small spreads.  Sometimes the price would move by $5 or $10 and my trades would execute.. Of course, I started this process when BTC prices were in the mid $200s, and some of the amounts that I made on each trade would be like $.20 .. .hahahahaha..

And, I had several people tell me that I was wasting my time because I might spend a few months at it, and maybe I made $100 or something like that, after adding up like 500 transactions.. but anyhow, I would argue that the goal was not specifically to make money on each trade, and of course, as the BTC price went up, I was able to authorize myself to trade larger amounts.  At first, I was authorizing my trades on only about 1/5th of my BTC stash because only that portion of my BTC stash was in profits.  The whole of my stash had an average BTC price of about $500, so I did not authorize myself to trade based on my whole stash until price went over $500.. and then I was not trading my whole stash but only a portion of the stash based on the value of the whole BTC stash. 

So the theory was that if theoretically I had 10 BTC, and the BTC price went up $100, then that would generate  $1,000 in profits, so I was free to trade from the profits that were generated, and I might trade anywhere between 20% to 40% of the profits, but still I would still end up receiving 60% or 80% of the profits stacked away or added to my value, even though I was putting a portion of my then additional profits at risk. 

So theoretical limits that I would place on myself had to do with my NOT being able to put anymore BTC at risk than 100% of the profits (never could put principle at risk), yet I did not really want to gamble, even with very much of my profits, so I rarely would even trade with more than 50% of my profits at any given time.

I still keep some of my initial framework in mind in terms of how much I am willing to sell, but in some recent times, I have projected out that I have become even more and more stingy in my desire to sell any BTC, and there seems to be some subliminal barrier or something in regards to my feelings that I am selling too much.. but in the end, if the BTC price goes crashing down, like it did in the last week, then I don't have as much money available to buy BTC back, either.

[Paashaas]

Last month stock markets breaking records after records, the sky was the limit, endless bullish algo's.

4 weeks later: Lower rates, helicopter money, a multi-trillion $ rescue package.

Today the Dow Jones dropped under 20.000, S&P500 tanking 9% triggerd another circuit breaker.

Covid19 makes 2008 crisis like child's play. This is history. I fully understand why corn can reach those (ridiculous) $200k-300k predictions.

[JayJuanGee]

One other tweet that made a lot of sense:

He forgot about Lambos...  

Come to think about it, we are going to need more than a piddly $1k.

Those cheapskate fucks!!!!!    Don't care about the needs of the people.  

[nullius]

They should start with the inmates on death row.  At least, releasing them should lessen the probability that convicts under penalty of death will take up precious ER beds for lifesaving measures.

Next, they need to let out all the poor, innocent people red-tagged by Lauda, the bad-cop kitty.

Of course, people convicted of serious crimes and domestic terrorism (such as underreporting taxable income, or making de minimis mistakes on gun purchase forms) must remain behind bars, for the public safety.

I will avoid mentioning why or how American prisons are notoriously efficient places to contract HIV.

[Biodom]

Last month stock markets breaking records after records, the sky was the limit, endless bullish algo's.

4 weeks later: Lower rates, helicopter money, a multi-trillion $ rescue package.

Today the Dow Jones dropped under 20.000, S&P500 tanking 9% triggerd another circuit breaker.

Covid19 makes 2008 crisis like child's play. This is history. I fully understand why corn can reach those (ridiculous) $200k-300k predictions.

Eventually, maybe. I don't see it doing this in a deflationary environment.
BTW, now would be a good time to shine with a robust LN. Are we there yet?

Fiat Market (SP500/Dow) also cannot do a final washout, it seems.
Every time they try, dip buyers are stepping in.
We already had 7 (working on 8th) straight days of more than 5% intraday volatility-a record.
One day up, next day down-almost ad infinitum.

[Globb0]

Vodka is the Russian way to kill virus'

How many cases do they have?

See, im focussing on drinking lots of vodka


*edit* there are downsides partner is very annoyed by my stumbling around