Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Even more difficult to get a lesson out of a bad situation, if you don't seem to be learning nuttin (or at least hardly nuttin).

I learned to not overinvest*. That's the most important lesson for me.

*That applies to everything and every asset. Stay mostly cash, don't invest more than you could afford to lose. If you can sleep tight at night, you are doing it right. I couldn't sleep that night.

I am not trying to be overly critical of you on a personal level because I understand that each person has to learn at their own rate.  I also understand that I likely come off as overly critical.

In any event, I do appreciate that you are willing to share information, and I appreciate that you believe that you may have learned some things from the whole situation, including NOT overly investing..

And, sure, maybe you can only learn one thing at a time, and that is fair to a certain extent.

[JSRAW]

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

[mindrust]

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

I had a great system. I wasn't making big but it was adding up in time. The moment I started to throw big bucks like $5k+ I lost control. I wasn't buying the dip anymore.

When it comes to bitcoin, I can't be sure about anything.

That's why I am overly conservative this time. DCA only.

Current situation is fucked up too. Everything can go down instantly tomorrow. I am hodling most of my cash in bank and even that's not safe.

[JayJuanGee]

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

He has painted himself into a logical corner, and he is not likely to buy back shit, even if BTC prices were to go back to $4,900, it would not be enough for him because he would still be in a loss, and then if prices were to go to $4,500, that would not be enough because it is merely just breaking even for him, and the price could go lower..., and if the prices were to go to $4k, then he would not buy back either because it is too close to $3,850 which means that the price could go lower...  etc etc..

[Cryptotourist]

I'd rather DCA. 50 bucks week. Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible. If it goes that low again you can be sure that it won't stop there so... DCA is the way. No dip buying, no big buying. 50 bucks week and that's it.

Even if goes below $4k again, I am not willing to risk more than %10 of my cash this time. I was too careless last time especially in the last months.

Waiting for a double price from here is gambling. I am fucking done with gambling.

Honestly after all whats said and done, if I had you in front of me, I would bitch slap you till you bought at least 50% of your coins back, i.e. 5, at these prices.
You did say you would ride it to zero, so fucking ride it to zero.

How can you keep on doing it wrong man?

[mindrust]

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

He has painted himself into a logical corner, and he is not likely to buy back shit, even if BTC prices were to go back to $4,900, it would not be enough for him because he would still be in a loss, and then if prices were to go to $4,500, that would not be enough because it is merely just breaking even for him, and the price could go lower..., and if the prices were to go to $4k, then he would not buy back either because it is too close to $3,850 which means that the price could go lower...  etc etc..

Yep. You got the picture. That's why I am only DCA'ing. I just erased my past bad memory. Starting from 2017 in 2020 again.  

I'd rather DCA. 50 bucks week. Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible. If it goes that low again you can be sure that it won't stop there so... DCA is the way. No dip buying, no big buying. 50 bucks week and that's it.

Even if goes below $4k again, I am not willing to risk more than %10 of my cash this time. I was too careless last time especially in the last months.

Waiting for a double price from here is gambling. I am fucking done with gambling.

Honestly after all whats said and done, if I had you in front of me, I would bitch slap you till you bought at least 50% of your coins back, i.e. 5, at these prices.
You did say you would ride it to zero, so fucking ride it to zero.

How can you keep on doing it wrong man?

I could ride it to zero before I spent too much cash on it. I was DCA'ing happily. 1 to gold, 2 to cash, 1 to btc. In time BTC started to go up and up and up and lately It was all btc and 0 to gold, 0 to cash. (then my saved cash started to go to btc too) That was a mistake.

[Wekkel]

Interesting opinion, although maybe not popular if applied here.

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/1242540586042826760

What carries people out during crashes is getting longer on the bounces

Maybe btc is different. Overall market-who knows. Market declined in 2008 after stimulus, even chances this time (due to kitchen sink approach)

Its not the FED stimulus that counts (its just filling a hole, avoiding bankruptcy/liquidity problems), but the things that go directly into the mainstream economy. A 2 Trillion government package helps. But there is still too much uncertainty on how much damage and how long Corona will cause/last. I expect this to be more clear within 3 weeks. If Corona turns out to have been a fluke and damage will be limited in the end, we can expect soaring markets. If the damage appears to be extensive, I expect markets to be choppy at best and going into full depression at worst.

[Wekkel]

Man's obsession with the Beast is overdone:

[Cryptotourist]

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

He has painted himself into a logical corner, and he is not likely to buy back shit, even if BTC prices were to go back to $4,900, it would not be enough for him because he would still be in a loss, and then if prices were to go to $4,500, that would not be enough because it is merely just breaking even for him, and the price could go lower..., and if the prices were to go to $4k, then he would not buy back either because it is too close to $3,850 which means that the price could go lower...  etc etc..

JJG, he wouldn't buy back, even if it went to $1k.

[mindrust]

Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible.

If you are even 50% sure about this scenario then plz buy some and forget about it, if not then Best of luck for your future endeavors.

He has painted himself into a logical corner, and he is not likely to buy back shit, even if BTC prices were to go back to $4,900, it would not be enough for him because he would still be in a loss, and then if prices were to go to $4,500, that would not be enough because it is merely just breaking even for him, and the price could go lower..., and if the prices were to go to $4k, then he would not buy back either because it is too close to $3,850 which means that the price could go lower...  etc etc..

JJG, he wouldn't buy back, even if it went to $1k.

I would buy 10 coins for $10k tbh. That would be perfect. 

[Ibian]

Shit man It sucks to be a nocoiner.

I reverted back to where I was 3 years ago. >:[

Right after I started to break my rules I went complete shit with my decisions. Fuck. Starting again.

Hopefully I'll be smarter this time.

Few months ago I was so damn sure that I could ride this to zero because that was when I wasn't overinvested. Right after I overinvest everything went down. Fuck my luck. It should have gone upwards. Fuck.

Are you going to buy back then?

How many bitcoin’s can you afford right now?

I can guarantee you the price will at least double from here in the next 12-18 months. Buy back & sell half of that when the price doubles.

I'd rather DCA. 50 bucks week. Not planning to buyback unless it goes back to $4k which is pretty much impossible. If it goes that low again you can be sure that it won't stop there so... DCA is the way. No dip buying, no big buying. 50 bucks week and that's it.

Even if goes below $4k again, I am not willing to risk more than %10 of my cash this time. I was too careless last time especially in the last months.

Waiting for a double price from here is gambling. I am fucking done with gambling.

Bitcoin is not gambling. It is a very sure formula. The supply is known and limited. The demand is ever-growing. The price can only go up over time. This I saw in december 2013.

Further, enough time has passed for an apparent multi-year pattern to be established. It is the year of the halvening. Following each halvening, the following year the price has exploded. If you would be rich, buy everything you can now, and keep buying for the rest of the year, as much as you can.

[Cryptotourist]

I could ride it to zero before I spent too much cash on it.

That's exactly what I'm saying.
Buy back what you where comfortable with, before you recently over invested.
Now.
Like a big boy.

We'll try to help you forget about the recent events and the position to used to have (lets say 8, now 5).
You can DCA 50 bucks a week after that.
You will thank us later.

[Torque]

Shit man It sucks to be a nocoiner.

I reverted back to where I was 3 years ago. >:[

Right after I started to break my rules I went complete shit with my decisions. Fuck. Starting again.

Hopefully I'll be smarter this time.

Few months ago I was so damn sure that I could ride this to zero because that was when I wasn't overinvested. Right after I overinvest everything went down. Fuck my luck. It should have gone upwards. Fuck.

Well some would tell me that going 95% all-in (been that way since Sept 2013) that I'm overinvested, I'm crazy, I'm a fool, and so on. I saw a 40% drop in my net worth soon after I went "all in". I've also seen many peaks and valleys since then. Am I taking a big risk? Well sure. But risk little, gain little.

But then again had I not gone "all in" back then, I never would have been able to buy a house outright not too long ago, and still have enough left over to basically retire for life. I still do some work on the side to keep the mind active.

As you can see with the recent stock market action, divestiture into other investments doesn't guarantee squat.

[Cryptotourist]

I would buy 10 coins for $10k tbh. That would be perfect. 

Thank God! See? There is still life in you.

[JSRAW]

@mindrust bro think about year 2022, 2025, 2030 and so on..... #Nohomo 

https://twitter.com/ChartsBtc/status/1242838441202614272

[Hueristic]

Of all the things I lost in life I miss my mind the most.

I'm on track, any word of advise, before I go full wacko?

Learn to accept the fact you cannot always trust yourself. That is a brutal thing to deal with if you have had rote memory your entire life and then its not dependable. Alot of people turn mean at this point and refuse to admit when they are wrong and I have certainly been guilty of that myself, especially when you forget that you forget.

[Biodom]

Regarding "all in"-maybe it worked if someone did it in 2013-2016, certainly did not work (so far) if you did it in December of 2017.
I think that everyone should have 6mo (all family expenses) in readily available funds (that you don't need to sell under duress).
After that-lump sum or DCA-not much difference if you hold REALLY long time.

Right now stock market is going silly on the upside (in some cases justified). I don't buy just as I did not sell before. Too much noise.

[Elwar]

I'm no conspiracy theorist, I tend to want to see evidence before I even consider anything a possibility, but I tend to be open to see the evidence and make a decision for myself.

I believe there is a Corona virus out there. I believe people are getting sick from it. I believe people have died from it.

My question:
With all of the people that record video of every boring part of their day (planting flowers, eating dinner, walking the dog, etc.), why are there no videos of people in their hospital beds dealing with this virus?
A quick search of Youtube shows that there are several media videos of people talking about how they are sick, but no "Joe blow" sitting in his hospital bed talking about how much it sucks on his Youtube channel.

And on Facebook I see plenty of people talking about how "my friend's dad died from it" or "my friend is a doctor and he's overwhelmed", etc.

But where are the videos? If you know of any, please let me know to ease my confusion. This should be a common thing on Youtube.

[JayJuanGee]

Interesting opinion, although maybe not popular if applied here.

https://twitter.com/KeithMcCullough/status/1242540586042826760

What carries people out during crashes is getting longer on the bounces

Maybe btc is different. Overall market-who knows. Market declined in 2008 after stimulus, even chances this time (due to kitchen sink approach)

There are differing opinions about the extent to which some kinds of money has rippling effects in the economy.

Of course, giving money to regular people has amongst the greatest of rippling effects, but because of theories of moral hazard, there remains a decent amount of reluctance to get involved too much in mass distributions of money (even though on a temporary basis it might be good).

I personally don't buy the trickle down effect theories that would just say to throw money at anything, and including that sometimes when the banks were getting money, especially in 2008, they were not even giving out loans, but instead covering their own earlier bullshit bets or distributing to their CEOs...

So, of course, there is still going to be some trickle down and rippling effects when money is given to rich people, but surely there are going to be some kinds of distributions that have more rippling effects than others, and sometimes if there is strings attached to the money, then a certain amount of rippling effects can be forced by such strings if they were to be created... of course, if strings are too restrictive, then there can be problems with that, too.

[mindrust]

Well I think It very well can go down as it can also go up, a lot.

I am not as sure as you guys that this is going to moon soon or again follow the last big rise (200 to 20k)

It is not even about btc itself.

There is too much happening at the moment and we may find ourselves in the middle of a world war soon.

Risk management is the only thing I care about and for me bitcoin is a risky asset. It is experimental tech. We all know that don't lie to yourself. I know it solves a real world problem, I know it is a great tech but it is also risky. No way I can flash %50 of my networth right after I took a big hit. Nope that's not happening.

I know that's not how you get rich but my original plan was  never about that too. My original investment plan was reaching half a million usd. (that's more than enough for me to retire.) The more I spent on btc I also raised that cap to a million. Because, why not? More is better right. wtf. That was a bad sign and I also ignored it.

Greed & gambling. These don't work well on me. I am not strong enough. Worked well for most of you in the past and that's great.