Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[strawbs]

I'll just leave this epic rant about the $2T (*cough* $14T *cough*) bailout bill here:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D-7uro3A3qU

People often say, well what can the Average Joe do about it? March? Riot? Revolution?

Bitcoin was *literally* created for this reason. It IS the red pill. It IS the Revolution.

#BUYBTC and stop participating in the corrupt fiat monetary system.

Spot on. But I expected the BTC price to have responded by now. So strange that there is still confidence in USD (or any fiat) after the recent creation of a squillion, gazillion USD out of thin air.

#only21million - yet not reflected in the current price.

I can only conclude that very, very few people understand that BTC has a finite supply that cannot be altered. I suspect this is true even of a majority of investors (and this is somewhat substantiated by acquaintances who bought in during the late-2017 hype. They knew nothing of the tech but simply had a huge dose of FOMO).

Let's say for example, there are such persons who invested a decent amount of their initial Lump sum of their initial investment into BTC between early December 2017 and late February 2018, and so they mostly blew their wadd during the highest BTC price points, so their average cost per BTC was around $12k.  Let's say that they had a lump sum of $24k, so they got 2 BTC out of the deal.

So, after March 2018, they had come to feeling a bit disgruntled because they had invested so much into bitcoin, and so at that point, they pondered the situation and rationally concluded that all that they could really reasonably do is to dollar cost average into bitcoin for another year or so, and see where that takes them, so for the next year, until about March 2019 they decide to dollar cost average into bitcoin at about $100 per week which ends up being another $5,200 invested into bitcoin by March 2019.  So let's say that DCA tactic had gotten them another .825 BTC.

Now they have 2.825 BTC and $29,200 invested, which is still about $10,336 per BTC, so they are still a bit aggravated that they are mostly NOT in profits, and they are actually underwater by around 63% because the price at that time is bouncing around in the $3,800 territory.

Remember bitcoin prices had gone from supra $6ks through most of 2018 to testing support in the lower $3ks in November/December 2018, and even largely got stagnated below $4k for most of the first quarter of 2019.  

In the meantime, this hypothetical FOMO buyer from 2017 had been studying into bitcoin and studying into their investment to create some conviction about bitcoin as a dollar hedge, yet they realized that they made some mistakes by throwing so much of their available lump sum investment capital at bitcoin in late 2017 and early 2018, and really they were lucky enough to have a decent enough of a job that they could continue to spare $400 a month for continued DCAing, and they continued to believe in bitcoin and to plug away at their dollar cost averaging approach, even considering that $400 per month was not really breaking them, was allowing them to continue to stack sats and was tending to bring down their average cost per BTC with the passage of additional time buying BTC, so between March 2019 and present, they decided to continue with DCA at $100 per week for another year between March 2019 and present, which ends up resulting in the accumulation of about the same amount of BTC .825 or something like that for that next year between March 2019 and March 2020.

So, if we look at https://dcabtc.com?sd=2018-03-27&sda=2_years&f=weekly&d=2_years&ac=10000&c=true, we will see that investing $100 per week into BTC for the past two years, would have gotten the investor 1.635 BTC at a cost of $10,500, so that investor would be a little below break even for those BTC from the past two years, but if we add those BTC to the 2BTC from the initial lumpsum investment, the investor is still a bit in the red with his/her BTC investment, but still with a decently likely road to profit ahead.

The investor would have a total of 3.635 BTC, and an investment of $34,500 - which would be $9,491 per BTC.  Of course, our current BTC floating price is around $6,250, so such investor would currently still be 35% in the red, even though such investor would have been close to break even during much of February 2020 but the portfolio of this particular FOMO'd in investor still does not seem to be a bad place to be, with a building level of sats, more knowledge about bitcoin, and continuing to DCA with a reasonable amount such as $100 per week is likely to lead to more stacking of BTC, with a reasonable expectation to be in profits in the future, especially if such investor has developed a 5-10 year investment timeline.. and maybe even a longer investment timeline would likely even show more possibilities for a pay off, even though part of the problem was getting in and investing so much at the top of the cycle, but still there is a quite a bit of hope for an investment portfolio like this that continues to just stock away extra side money that they can afford to lose if shit goes to zero.. (which is also seeming increasingly unlikely given the whole state of the bitcoin blockchain and project as a whole, including ongoing building of networking effects, etc).

A person with such an investment profile, might choose to double down at this stage, and hopefully did not do a mindrust when seeing the BTC price drop down to $3,850 a couple of weeks ago.. and did not get out completely in the mid $4ks.

Yeah, sure, BTC prices might return to test $3,850 or even to test $3,124 again, but that potentiality seems like buy opportunity territory to me, because any BTC price below $3k seems almost completely unsustainable under current market conditions, including the fact that bitcoin is not broken in any way, especially with the halvening coming up, and surely bitcoin is likely to continue to serve as a real decent hedge to the "printer goes brrrrr" philosophy that is currently being shown as the solution to a virus and shutting down of industries problem that had already been largely caused by previous "printer goes brrrrrr"... but previously such "printer goes brrrr" philosophy had not been adequately named nor identified.

But you're making the huge assumption that people who invested in late 2017 are likely to continue investing with a DCA approach. My acquaintances who invested at that time, later sold at a loss and didn't get back in. Like the majority of those investors, they probably don't even know what DCA is.

But my question remains - why so very few people understand that BTC has a finite supply that cannot be altered and should therefore be trusted to hold value more than infinitely supplied fiat.

[1714658292]

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[Torque]

But you're making the huge assumption that people who invested in late 2017 are likely to continue investing with a DCA approach. My acquaintances who invested at that time, later sold at a loss and didn't get back in. Like the majority of those investors, they probably don't even know what DCA is.

People with that get-rich-quick-or-bust type of mindset will simply never make it in this world. They certainly won't make it in ANY type of long term investing, be it stocks, PMs, real estate, etc. They can't be helped, because the fear and FOMO/greed emotions in them are too easily manipulated. Bear markets in anything can last for years.

But my question remains - why so very few people understand that BTC has a finite supply that cannot be altered and should therefore be trusted to hold value more than infinitely supplied fiat.

Most can't be bothered to do the real research. Even if they do understand it, they are too overwhelmed by the brainwashing campaign of the MSM that tries to paint Bitcoin as a complete scam. They also don't understand and are put off by the volatility of Bitcoin as compared to large cap stocks, and so they seek false safety when they should be doing the opposite. Risk little, gain little. Risk nothing, gain nothing.

[strawbs]

But you're making the huge assumption that people who invested in late 2017 are likely to continue investing with a DCA approach. My acquaintances who invested at that time, later sold at a loss and didn't get back in. Like the majority of those investors, they probably don't even know what DCA is.

People with that get-rich-quick-or-bust type of mindset will simply never make it in this world. They certainly won't make it in ANY type of long term investing, be it stocks, PMs, real estate, etc. They can't be helped, because the fear and FOMO/greed emotions in them are too easily manipulated. Bear markets in anything can last for years.

But my question remains - why so very few people understand that BTC has a finite supply that cannot be altered and should therefore be trusted to hold value more than infinitely supplied fiat.

Most can't be bothered to do the research. Even if they do understand it, they are too overwhelmed by the brainwashing campaign of the MSM that tries to paint Bitcoin as a complete scam. They also don't understand and are put off by the volatility of Bitcoin as compared to large cap stocks, and so they seek false safety when they should be doing the opposite. Risk little, gain little.

Yeah, I agree. In 2017, I was getting phone calls from friends of friends asking for advice about whether to invest in BTC and a range of alts popular at the time. I was shocked by their lack of knowledge. Yes, just wanting a get-rich-quick scheme, an approach which backfired on all of them. I did months of research back in 2013 - it paid off - and I guess I assumed everyone else would do the same. I was proved wrong. Thankfully to their detriment and not mine.

[fillippone]

Printing the money is THE plan.

Please tell me I am wrong ...
1) Christine Lagarde was chief IMF in 2013 when ECB did Cyprus BAIL-IN (confiscation of depositor savings)
2) She is now chief ECB managing corona crisis
3) IMF's SDR (special Drawing Rights) mentioned as first global currency

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1243624726297227264?s=20

He's linking this article:

Cyprus bailout deal with EU closes bank and seizes large deposits

Basically the idea is that Cyprus (bail in taxing large deposits and locking banks) is a trial run for Europe's next banking crisis.


Well, I don't get it.
Who need to seize money from private citizen when you could just print it out of thin air as the FED is doing?
Who believe in taxes in these days?

[JimboToronto]

I've tried to avoid the debate on how to treat gin. I enjoy it with Schwepp's and a twist as well as with Dolin's and an olive and a few drops of the brine.

But Bombay Sapphire for gawd's sake? Isn't that something they use for stripping paint? It's barely better than Beefeater or Gilbey's.

To rank it above Tanqueray is a sacrilege and Tanqueray is just middle-of -the-road. I prefer Hendrick's (especially Orbium) for a more subtle, refined taste and Gordon's for full-on honest juniper goodness.

To each their own, I guess. I place Sapphire, Tanqueray, and even Hendricks as about equivalent quality-wise. I just like the mix of infused botanicals in Sapphire.

Hendricks is good for a change of pace from time to time. Cucumber garnish, please.

Gordon's!? Egad, sir! Begone from this place with that turpentine! Well, I guess it's not _crap_ per se - just bland as all nothingness.

To each their own indeed.

I see that you hold classic Gordon's London Dry gin in almost as low esteem as I hold trendy Bombay Sapphire. There's a big difference between the two though.

In my opinion, Sapphire tastes like any other over-infused modern martini-oriented gin but without the sublety of Hendrick's or even Tanqueray. Gordon's on the other hand is not a martini gin. Its robust straight-up juniper flavor is unparalleled for mixing with tonic water. Even their  advertising recognizes this:

Almost 250 years ago, Alexander Gordon started his distillery in London and set about creating the recipe for a brilliant tasting gin. Gordon's high quality and distinctive juniper flavour has come to define the taste of the classic G&T. Gordon's today is a gin that's enjoyed, not dissected.

Whatever. Booze is intended for enjoyment, not debate. You enjoy your Sapphire. I'll enjoy may Orbium martinis and Gordon's & Schwepp's.

Cheers.

[Torque]

What about Aviation Gin? Anyone here tried it?

[bitcoinPsycho]

Strange tits indeed

[BitcoinGirl.Club]

Good morning WO!
Observing @ $6,234

[asUHWEceyc]

How long you people think we will be under quarantine ?

46 days (roughly, average)

Yeah, I agree. In 2017, I was getting phone calls from friends of friends asking for advice about whether to invest in BTC and a range of alts popular at the time. I was shocked by their lack of knowledge. Yes, just wanting a get-rich-quick scheme, an approach which backfired on all of them. I did months of research back in 2013 - it paid off - and I guess I assumed everyone else would do the same. I was proved wrong. Thankfully to their detriment and not mine.

this market wears the scalps of gutless noobs once every 4 years

[VB1001]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMemeHub/status/1243251061768552454

[nutildah]

I didn't forget my password my computer forgot my password.

[Torque]

Here's another investing "expert" that got Bitcoin wrong. People should never listen to these bozos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kEySHOd4JU

Never forget.

[Indymoney]

I didn't forget my password my computer forgot my password.

Even its starting days of Quarantine what will happen at the end of this all? 

[fillippone]

Dear Lord.

TRUMP SAYS IS THINKING ABOUT IMPOSING A QUARANTINE ON NEW YORK

- It‘s happening

https://twitter.com/russian_market/status/1243937014203977731?s=20

[Febo]

How long you people think we will be under quarantine ?

Depends where you live. Also expect another lock down at end of the year. I am sure some countries will be able to avoid lock down at that time. Most probably not.

[Indymoney]

How long you people think we will be under quarantine ?

Depends where you live. Also expect another lock down at end of the year. I am sure some countries will be able to avoid lock down at that time. Most probably not.

Yea I am also feeling this is going to be very long quarantine for many countries as they have no resources for control and secure peoples in many developing countries its increasing very quickly even they are on very forced locked down.

[QuestionAuthority]

Other than the people in this thread that are here to bullshit about everything and anything, does anyone on this forum still support bitcoin? The top sections are all altcoin shit. Oh, and whatever happened to the great new forum they were making to replace this Simple Machines freeware crap?

Bounties (Altcoins)          7476553
Announcements (Altcoins)       7149603
Altcoin Discussion          3032532

[Cryptotourist]

Yes, but i have to add that this has become more like the Corona conspiracy and alternative medicine thread.

Well, it's not my fault it attracts morons.
That said, I've posted a lot more there, than marcus_the_toothless_snake, or certain other individuals there.
I wonder why that is, .... am I a moron?

Not so fast. But the following tweet collection may grow your appetite for crypto some further: https://twitter.com/hansthered/status/1243544218984906752?s=19

I love you r0achie.

Thanks but what I really need is a few dozen cases of beer and several cases of assorted good dry red table wines.

I have lots of gin. I could also use some good full-flavored tequila for making margaritas. All I have left is the prissy "subtly-flavored" stuff you drink out of a shot glass.

Edit: ...also some real Cointreau for the margaritas please. All I have left is a cheap knock-off called "Controy" in a lookalike square bottle, and some other triple sec. I won't even mention the blue Curacao.

Sorry sir, I stand corrected.
Make that airdrop the full bar, bartender included.


Went for a cool drive.
No cops, no nothing, the island is just beautiful.

Also I could not believe the amount of gorgeous looking women in the supermarket.
With their gloves, masks n all, very very kinky.

[Toxic2040]

Good morning all


Bitcoin dropped to around $6k late yesterday on substantial volumes. Not quite sure what the panic was over...but it seemed like a good time to buy the dip.  We are now trading around $6.25k as the markets continue to stabilise.  #dyor

1h

#stronghands






-------

I would like to just add this...   

I was not proselytising yesterday when I mentioned St. Peters Square and I hope you all understand that. It was a incredibly poignant moment visually that I felt the need to share in these trying times. Freedom of religion is as important to me as financial freedom.
Thank you for all the support however.. it means a lot to me.
 

[Cryptotourist]

Printing the money is THE plan.

Please tell me I am wrong ...
1) Christine Lagarde was chief IMF in 2013 when ECB did Cyprus BAIL-IN (confiscation of depositor savings)
2) She is now chief ECB managing corona crisis
3) IMF's SDR (special Drawing Rights) mentioned as first global currency

https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1243624726297227264?s=20

He's linking this article:

Cyprus bailout deal with EU closes bank and seizes large deposits

Basically the idea is that Cyprus (bail in taxing large deposits and locking banks) is a trial run for Europe's next banking crisis.


Well, I don't get it.
Who need to seize money from private citizen when you could just print it out of thin air as the FED is doing?
Who believe in taxes in these days?

Well, they seized some money of the middle class/rich locals, and the extremely rich Russian black money deposits in Cyprus.
Only to scare them off of course, and show them who runs the business.
For the locals - just to clarify, for the Russians it's another story.