Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[hv_]

JSRAW, Btway, thanks to you, I came across this idea, ("a year ago, 4 cents could buy 606 satoshis, and it's a pity that we don't use "sats" as a standard, continue to say 0.01 bitcoin, etc") In case there are lightning network fans here, here's a quick LightningATM tutorial written by @21. Overall a very cool concept ...

thanks, man!

it is time for a well established Layer2 solution because on-chain fees are high and to expensive for txs < 100 USD.

https://ycharts.com/indicators/bitcoin_average_transaction_fee

Of course, if everyone just switched over to native segwit addresses they could save 50% on their fees. This would also have the added benefit of allowing more transactions per block too. Anyone out there who complains of fees and are still using legacy addresses deserve it.

old cold stores with legacy addresses will exist nearly the whole time of the Bitcoin life-cycle. even with just the Segwit addresses a Layer2 solution is needed because sometime in the future the fees should replace the block reward nearly completely. (did you not understand the economical base concept of Bitcoin )

either Bitcoin will be become super expensive or at least one reliable Layer2 solution will be established. BTW, it was Satoshi's intention too to get Bitcoin layer2 ready.

Of course I understand that, it would just help in the meantime is all I mean. Layer 2 is coming and it is a good thing, but obviously still needs more time.

How is accounting done off-chain ? Pay another blockchain doin such ?

nah, only on-chain is the way to go - that's real bitcoin

So we're in agreement then, you are a retard.

cannot fix stupid - or missing knowledge of need for accountablity - must come over that way

have fun 

 

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[rdbase]

Mars landing in 9 hours.
https://mars.nasa.gov/mars2020/

Dubai and China have already sent their rockets in orbit of mars and are ready to deploy their probes onto the red planet soon.
So there is alot of activity to who will claim what region on mars.
It is getting quite interesting now there are three space super powers looking towards mars.

Meanwhile on this lil blue planet we all know as Earth

Lil bubble - All the bears are dead
https://youtu.be/3fxzaTg0vMQ
Just for the break out to pass $50kBTC!

[_javi_]

500 btc to 59k @stamp?? only 500...
I know the orderbook may populate in minutes... but a big buy and we could slide to the moon.. 

[philipma1957]

60k very very soon people.

read this quote.
my gut is we are witnessing a gold to btc wealth transfer. in the early stages.

this means a possible 500k for btc in under 10 years.

Historically, we rarely get more than 6 month of highs, so don't expect to see a dollar soon.
We may reach 60K by April or May as a maximum, but I would not be surprised if we settled for a longer time.
If what happened in 2017 were to repeat, we would witness torpor for some time and then crazy spikes.

Healthy growth requires a constant increase, slow correction like this, not crazy speculation.

But if gold is going to be bigly mined on asteroids it will devalue like mad.

gold is 11 trillion
btc is 1 trillion.

maybe in ten years

gold is 5 trillion
btc is 10 trillion

maybe people in the know see the writing on the wall for gold as king of wealth storage
Thus the real reason for btc growth is transfer of gold to btc.

If so BTC has a huge upside.

This is not a bull run. Like any other one for btc.

WE never had every day of the year beat any and all ATH for any other time in BTC other than 2009.

Look at this below

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=138109.msg56368498#msg56368498

 BitStamp USD/BTC           CoinFloor GBP/BTC           Kraken EUR/BTC              Kraken CAD/BTC             CoinCheck JPY/BTC
 ------------------------    -----------------------    -----------------------    -----------------------    --------------------------
   1  2021-02-16  48,997  |   1  2021-02-14  35,325  |   1  2021-02-16  40,445  |   1  2021-02-14  62,046  |   1  2021-02-16  5,162,652
   2  2021-02-14  48,746  |   2  2021-02-16  35,036  |   2  2021-02-14  40,324  |   2  2021-02-16  61,955  |   2  2021-02-14  5,102,687
   3  2021-02-12  47,548  |   3  2021-02-12  34,454  |   3  2021-02-15  39,350  |   3  2021-02-12  60,686  |   3  2021-02-15  5,007,391
   4  2021-02-15  47,515  |   4  2021-02-15  34,390  |   4  2021-02-12  39,318  |   4  2021-02-15  60,532  |   4  2021-02-12  4,993,437
   5  2021-02-13  47,122  |   5  2021-02-13  34,184  |   5  2021-02-13  39,068  |   5  2021-02-13  60,301  |   5  2021-02-13  4,974,107
   6  2021-02-11  46,872  |   6  2021-02-11  34,035  |   6  2021-02-11  38,664  |   6  2021-02-11  59,824  |   6  2021-02-09  4,889,502
   7  2021-02-09  46,705  |   7  2021-02-09  33,771  |   7  2021-02-09  38,627  |   7  2021-02-09  59,095  |   7  2021-02-11  4,879,658
   8  2021-02-10  45,554  |   8  2021-02-10  32,882  |   8  2021-02-10  37,629  |   8  2021-02-10  57,583  |   8  2021-02-10  4,789,692
   9  2021-02-08  43,069  |   9  2021-02-08  31,367  |   9  2021-02-08  35,596  |   9  2021-02-08  54,955  |   9  2021-02-08  4,442,800
  10  2021-01-09  40,348  |  10  2021-01-09  29,772  |  10  2021-02-06  33,057  |  10  2021-01-09  50,984  |  10  2021-01-09  4,189,918
  11  2021-01-08  39,991  |  11  2021-01-08  29,727  |  11  2021-01-09  32,844  |  11  2021-02-06  50,653  |  11  2021-02-06  4,171,680
  12  2021-02-06  39,835  |  12  2021-02-06  29,056  |  12  2021-01-08  32,672  |  12  2021-01-08  49,929  |  12  2021-01-08  4,123,916
  13  2021-01-14  38,606  |  13  2021-01-14  28,497  |  13  2021-02-07  32,094  |  13  2021-01-14  49,229  |  13  2021-02-07  4,075,827
  14  2021-02-07  38,571  |  14  2021-01-07  28,351  |  14  2021-01-14  31,840  |  14  2021-02-07  49,117  |  14  2021-01-10  4,071,622
  15  2021-01-10  38,553  |  15  2021-01-10  28,256  |  15  2021-02-05  31,422  |  15  2021-01-10  48,796  |  15  2021-01-14  4,003,206
  16  2021-01-07  38,299  |  16  2021-02-07  28,094  |  16  2021-02-04  31,274  |  16  2021-02-05  48,160  |  16  2021-02-05  3,972,736
  17  2021-02-05  37,729  |  17  2021-02-05  27,589  |  17  2021-01-07  30,967  |  17  2021-02-04  47,914  |  17  2021-02-04  3,943,049
  18  2021-02-04  37,458  |  18  2021-02-04  27,472  |  18  2021-01-10  30,814  |  18  2021-02-03  46,962  |  18  2021-01-07  3,940,384
  19  2021-01-19  36,921  |  19  2021-01-19  27,115  |  19  2021-01-16  30,544  |  19  2021-01-16  46,912  |  19  2021-01-15  3,854,972
  20  2021-01-15  36,803  |  20  2021-01-16  27,040  |  20  2021-01-19  30,490  |  20  2021-01-15  46,845  |  20  2021-01-19  3,835,782
  21  2021-01-16  36,797  |  21  2021-02-03  26,885  |  21  2021-01-15  30,451  |  21  2021-01-07  46,824  |  21  2021-01-16  3,827,147
  22  2021-02-03  36,640  |  22  2021-01-18  26,816  |  22  2021-02-03  30,404  |  22  2021-01-19  46,766  |  22  2021-02-03  3,816,459
  23  2021-01-18  36,132  |  23  2021-01-15  26,799  |  23  2021-01-18  29,906  |  23  2021-01-18  46,224  |  23  2021-01-18  3,751,618
  24  2021-01-29  35,574  |  24  2021-01-17  26,104  |  24  2021-01-17  29,308  |  24  2021-01-17  45,623  |  24  2021-01-29  3,710,865
  25  2021-01-17  35,389  |  25  2021-01-29  26,094  |  25  2021-01-29  29,288  |  25  2021-01-29  45,428  |  25  2021-01-17  3,677,563
  26  2021-01-06  34,979  |  26  2021-01-13  25,864  |  26  2021-02-02  29,013  |  26  2021-01-13  45,194  |  26  2021-01-20  3,638,207
  27  2021-01-20  34,861  |  27  2021-01-06  25,727  |  27  2021-01-13  28,893  |  27  2021-02-02  44,658  |  27  2021-02-02  3,618,369
  28  2021-02-02  34,861  |  28  2021-01-20  25,549  |  28  2021-01-20  28,855  |  28  2021-01-12  44,340  |  28  2021-01-12  3,610,230
  29  2021-01-12  34,778  |  29  2021-02-02  25,518  |  29  2021-01-12  28,588  |  29  2021-01-20  44,278  |  29  2021-01-13  3,589,117
  30  2021-01-13  34,751  |  30  2021-01-12  25,078  |  30  2021-01-06  28,416  |  30  2021-01-30  43,629  |  30  2021-01-06  3,587,351
  31  2021-01-30  33,988  |  31  2021-01-30  24,738  |  31  2021-01-30  28,051  |  31  2021-02-01  43,109  |  31  2021-01-30  3,551,718
  32  2021-02-01  33,790  |  32  2021-01-03  24,548  |  32  2021-02-01  27,962  |  32  2021-01-31  42,705  |  32  2021-01-11  3,521,604
  33  2021-01-11  33,575  |  33  2021-01-25  24,363  |  33  2021-01-25  27,603  |  33  2021-01-25  42,333  |  33  2021-02-01  3,511,602
  34  2021-01-25  33,485  |  34  2021-01-11  24,327  |  34  2021-01-11  27,453  |  34  2021-01-11  42,223  |  34  2021-01-31  3,493,845
  35  2021-01-03  33,463  |  35  2021-02-01  24,286  |  35  2021-01-31  27,403  |  35  2021-01-06  41,789  |  35  2021-01-25  3,468,615
  36  2021-01-31  33,299  |  36  2021-01-31  24,222  |  36  2021-01-21  26,678  |  36  2021-01-28  41,173  |  36  2021-01-03  3,457,542
  37  2021-01-05  32,341  |  37  2021-01-05  23,716  |  37  2021-01-23  26,582  |  37  2021-01-23  41,137  |  37  2021-01-21  3,363,063
  38  2021-01-23  32,331  |  38  2021-01-28  23,447  |  38  2021-01-03  26,548  |  38  2021-01-26  40,734  |  38  2021-01-23  3,359,913
  39  2021-01-21  32,321  |  39  2021-01-21  23,380  |  39  2021-01-05  26,417  |  39  2021-01-24  40,553  |  39  2021-01-24  3,355,909
  40  2021-01-24  32,091  |  40  2021-01-26  23,362  |  40  2021-01-28  26,354  |  40  2021-01-21  40,384  |  40  2021-01-28  3,325,020
  41  2021-01-26  31,995  |  41  2021-01-23  23,349  |  41  2021-01-24  26,340  |  41  2021-01-05  39,706  |  41  2021-01-26  3,313,775
  42  2021-01-28  31,973  |  42  2021-01-24  23,319  |  42  2021-01-26  26,272  |  42  2021-01-27  39,583  |  42  2021-01-05  3,288,363
  43  2021-01-22  31,363  |  43  2021-01-22  22,953  |  43  2021-01-22  25,923  |  43  2021-01-22  39,391  |  43  2021-01-22  3,240,591
  44  2021-01-02  31,348  |  44  2021-01-02  22,890  |  44  2021-01-27  25,391  |  44  2021-01-03  39,297  |  44  2021-01-04  3,211,787
  45  2021-01-04  31,099  |  45  2021-01-04  22,545  |  45  2021-01-02  25,248  |  45  2021-01-04  38,339  |  45  2021-01-27  3,211,295
  46  2021-01-27  30,809  |  46  2021-01-27  22,351  |  46  2021-01-04  24,961  |  46  2021-01-02  38,298  |  46  2021-01-02  3,190,696
  47  2021-01-01  29,279  |  47  2021-01-01  21,429  |  47  2021-01-01  23,880  |  47  2021-01-01  36,510  |  47  2021-01-01  2,997,708

...

all top 47 days are in this year and no other year for all 5 currencies .

That is an historical set of numbers.

 I only know that you simply can't compare this to any year ever.

Which so far is really really good.

It may be we go beyond 150k and then fall back.  Why not?

150k is 3 x what we are but we are around 1 trillion value.

gold is about  11 trillion value.

Maybe we end the year with:

 btc market cap at 3.5 trillion
 gold market cap at 8.5 trillion

Gold is not scarce

 https://theprint.in/opinion/giant-asteroid-has-gold-worth-700-quintillion-but-it-wont-make-us-richer/260482/



So how about the people in the know realize that gold will be easily mined and drop in value a shit ton.  Good old BTC is right there to capture that value.

To think
 that today  all the  gold is worth 11 trillion
and that  all the btc is worth 1 trillion

is going to change quite a bit

In ten years maybe btc is 10 trillion and gold drops to 5 trillion. why the fuck not.

if so BTC will be 500,000 a coin

[vroom]

A new hero has arrived

The helicopter road map is very nice as well.... using it in personal friend groups as well 

If that’s allowed ? 

Thanks Dude! Of course you can use it for whatever you want.

Not to nitpick, but this road map looks wrong. The helicopter is falling to higher btc prices? Is it a dollarcopter? If so, maybe it could be labeled as such, with a conspicuous dollar sign or something. Alternatively, the numbers could be arranged upside down, with higher numbers at the top.

And gratz for heroing, vroom!   Long due for a long time, no-nonsense WO member.

Thanks! This is just a table, read like a book and the helicopter marks the current position. It does not follow any laws of physics like gravity or human logic

[d_eddie]

I see what you mean vroom, but the orientation of the copter makes it look like it wants to go UP, which means Number Go Down. This aggression will not stand, man.

[lightfoot]

Just for perspective: I was talking to my son last night and mentioned that Bitcoin had crashed down to about 51k. He said "You know dad, if you had said 5 years ago that Bitcoin was crashing to 51,000 I would think you were just pulling numbers out of your ass".

He's right....

[julian071]

Bears out of ammo finally?

Like someone said earlier, better if they sell their coins now then later.

[lightfoot]

Bears out of ammo finally?

Like someone said earlier, better if they sell their coins now then later.

Cheap coins....

(Yes, I just said that 51k coins are cheap. Jesus....)

[Dabs]

Why do you write dates "month/day/year", it's counterintuitive 
day/month/year is the way to go, from the smaller unit to the biggest 

The "standard" now is using year-mm-dd. That's specified in an ISO or something. So today would be something like 2021-02-18 for February 18 2021, or 21 February 2021.

[Richy_T]

but hats off for publicly admitting it. it will give their followers something to think about.  this is a weird phenomenon: individuals or entities with lots of followers that repeat for years that bitcoin is tulip mania have been a great disservice for their followers: kept them from buying bitcoin. i wonder if some of them "feel" some kind of sense of responsibility and give it a second thought. maybe mfool is an example of that.

The interesting thing is that those who have dismissed it have typically done so based on surface level stuff and almost no deep analysis, often betraying a fundamental misunderstanding of how value works. A prime candidate for the Gell-Man amnesia effect. What are they getting wrong in other areas?

[Richy_T]

Why do you write dates "month/day/year", it's counterintuitive 
day/month/year is the way to go, from the smaller unit to the biggest 

ISO 8601. The right format for the modern age.

[Dabs]

Of course, if everyone just switched over to native segwit addresses they could save 50% on their fees. This would also have the added benefit of allowing more transactions per block too. Anyone out there who complains of fees and are still using legacy addresses deserve it.

ill keep my legacy addys for the most part. i dont care about the bigger fees (as opposed to segwit) as its generally just a small fraction of the overall amount transferred anyway. i try to plan ahead and liquidate what i think ill need in the coming timeframe plus a bit of slop just because i know im an idiot and like shiny objects.

but yeah this messes up small transactions but isnt that what L2 is for?

sorry for my olde skoole legacy fixation. just another hobby for me.

You can set up a segwit wallet now, and then use new addresses from there as change when you spend some from your legacy addresses. Then at least future spends from native segwit addresses will have smaller fees.

It also disciplines you during the migration process. I only have legacy compatible addresses (segwit that begins with 3) for those who still need them, otherwise it's all segwit (bc1q...)

[Richy_T]

Of course I understand that, it would just help in the meantime is all I mean. Layer 2 is coming and it is a good thing, but obviously still needs more time.

18 months?

[jojo69]

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You
   open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well.
   In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the
   article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding
   of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong
   it actually presents the story backward -- reversing cause and
   effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's
   full of them.

   In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple
   errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or
   international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper
   was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you
   just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

[Dabs]

Of course I understand that, it would just help in the meantime is all I mean. Layer 2 is coming and it is a good thing, but obviously still needs more time.

18 months?

LN is here, although it does say "experimental", but that's also what Bitcoin says. There's about 1085 BTC in LN right now (maybe more, I'm not updated with real time numbers.) .. just took a quick look, 16k nodes, 38k channels, 1084 BTC ($55.8 million)

And although not strictly Layer 2, the wrapped bitcoins are at least 100k BTC now.

I've dabbled a bit with LN on testnet, with small amounts. You can "buy" something called "starblocks" ... but it's not physical (and it's all testnet anyway.)

[JayJuanGee]

Dude... that has the word "crypto" in it.

Twice. 

It's gonna piss off JJG!

crypto crypto crypto


Cmon jay... gimme a batslap!   (No homo, I promise...)

I know... I know... I know... I already responded to this shit-stirring post... but the ideas contained therein may need another angle of response:






Think about it.....








One does not simply ask for a batman slap.   







A batman slap comes at a time when it is needed or deserved... and of course, it can come from any member, that's for sure.. seen some pretty decent batman slaps in these here parts.





Surely, asking for a batman slap remains a kind of provocative taunting that does deserve some degree of punishment, so I will admit that angle... .you provocative lil twat, sirazimuth. 

[Torque]

Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You
   open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well.
   In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the
   article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding
   of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong
   it actually presents the story backward -- reversing cause and
   effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's
   full of them.

   In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple
   errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or
   international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper
   was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you
   just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.

Now if we could just all Average Joes to treat every article they read with suspicion first, then verify (or not), they'd get a lot smarter and more savvy.

"Don't trust, verify."

Gee, where have I heard that one before?

[lightfoot]

Now if we could just all Average Joes to treat every article they read with suspicion first, then verify (or not), they'd get a lot smarter and more savvy.

"Don't trust, verify."

Gee, where have I heard that one before?

This is exactly why subscription based news is superior to penny papers: You select a news source, PAY FOR IT, and if it turns out to be crap you cancel the subscription and buy a better quality news source.

That's what Ochs did with the Times and Franklin did with Poor Richards' Almanac: Provide consistent quality information that you pay a subscription for. Hearst knew the value of shock crap news, thus came the "penny papers" where you only paid a penny but each day the news had to sell itself to your tastes. Thus salacious crap (Remember the Maine!)

Unfortunately on the Internet the penny paper model won (ad based articles) so the ones that make money are not based on accuracy but on salaciousness. In that world yes you have to research every news item to death.

Personally I prefer to outsource that to a reputable company. Sometimes even those reputable sources can be corrupted by ad revenue and shock jock crap (hello Wall Street Journal, what the fuck happened). And here we are....

[Dabs]

Bill Gates = neutral on bitcoin. Still doesn't like it, but he is on record saying he is not short on bitcoin, nor does he have any (and Microsoft too, does not want to invest at this time.) Gates is no longer on the board of MS.