Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

  What, where we went from $250 down to $30 in April (May?  It's been a while)?  That seems unlikely.  I unlike it.

Of course I would LOVE for his S2Fx model to be correct... It has me living on an island WAY earlier than my plan, lol.  But this could also be where it just breaks.  This one and the more conservative one... 

Anyone following the bet between he and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter?  Dave is MUCH more conservative and I think his dominant long term model is more of a softening parabola, and frankly I think according to his tea leaves we may have already peaked in this "cycle".  He and PlanB have some bet revolving around 100k or not, I think.

Honestly I think both of them are clever folks with interesting models, that will be absolutely true, until they are not.  Between them, and out own Toxic and his charts of zen, I have more than enough math-magic to consume and confuse me into just holding.   It's win/win I think.

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[Kylapoiss]

I've been limited lurking the last month or so, but had to pop in to say: FUCK YOU ELON - and I do hope you read this.


Dedicated to all vegan lovers - SwingStar in particular:


Campari al Polo

Compulsory soundtrack:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mBP6ktTEzhw


Time number go up, gentlemen.

Wtf are you drinking mate

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

I see we're back in the $5xxxx range again... currently $50785USD/$61463CAD (Bitcoinaverage).

All is well. Hopefully a new ATH soon.
_____

I can't believe how many people are taking an obvious joker seriously.

SNL? Isn't that some comedy TV show?

Sorry McAfee, you've been upstaged. There's a new clown in town.

[Torque]

SNL? Isn't that some comedy TV show?

It used to be. Long ago, when it was actually funny.

Not anymore. Hasn't been since the days of Chris Farley and Will Ferrell.

[Elwar]

Climate change is one thing. Talk about the flat-earthers, and now the hollow-earthers (although I don't seriously think there is anyone out there who could believe about a hollow earth, but then why do the flat earthers still exist.)

I used to think the whole flat earth thing started as a joke or by trolls which then sort of took off but someone delved deep into the phenomenon and found that it is a means of coping with the ever growing complexity of things. The philosophy underlying the whole thing is the idea that you can't trust anyone else's scientific findings and you can only rely on what you, personally, can see and verify yourself. Throw in a bit (a lot) of distrust in our government and its institutions (understandably) and you have people believing that every scientific study going back decades is all made up by the very same government that is now lying to us about a pandemic.

I'd say the flat earth thing is a symptom of distrust in institutions at this point.

But we all know that the earth is a sphere. And that we are living inside of it. As Tolkein told us.

[Torque]

But we all know that the earth is a sphere. And that we are living inside of it. As Tolkein told us.

I've seen Mordor with my own eyes, I tells ya! It's real!

[JayJuanGee]

Regardless of Elon's narcissism, Asperger's, sociopathy, greed, or whatever else is in his brain, this experiment just shows how easy it is to manipulate the cryptocurrency market, and even King Daddy can be affected. I don't like it, but that's how things work for now. I'm not worried about Bitcoin's long-term performance, I'm fairly certain that this is just an outlier on the steady upward trend that's going to continue for a very long time. Glitches like Elon's just delay the inevitable by a few months. So be it.

Seems to me that when BTC price momentum changes or there might be movements that seem contrary to the earlier momentum such as Gox issues in Feb 2014, Bitfinex hackening in August 2016, blocksize/forkening battles in mid-to-late 2017, the Bcash split in November 2018, the March 2020 liquidity event, Musk's wiffle-waffling proclamations of recent times, or some other events, we cannot really know for sure if the particular supposed BTC price impacting talking-point issue(s) had been really affecting the BTC price in a kind of material way or if the BTC price was inclined to go in that direction anyhow.. and the talking point issue only ends up being an excuse or a partial and incomplete explanation. 

Surely, sometimes when we do get a change in momentum, then it seems that we might also experience some opportunistic jumping on board to try to take advantage of whatever momentum seemed to have been created and sometimes attempts to spread more and more news in the direction of the momentum (if we are talking about down), and I am not even going to proclaim that there would not have been some exacerbating effect of such negative information or the piling on of additional negative information that might be coupled with actual physical dumpenings with an attempt to achieve as much DOWNity that is within reach and to keep the BTC price DOWNity for as long as possible, but in the end, there still might remain some questions regarding how much of a delay was caused all of that hub-bub and/or attempts to manipulate, and maybe if the delay might have come from some other reasons. 

Surely, after the 2017 forkening matter had seemed to resolve itself in August/September 2017, there was a bit of an outrageous BTC price recovery that went quite above and beyond expectations that likely caused several of us (including yours truly) to speculate that there may well be some more upside legs in this, even after already nearly reaching $20k, even though after some amount of time (for me it may have taken nearly 11 months-ish), there was some realization that the top was in and the bull market was delayed a wee bit (taking 3- years to get back to $19,666 - and thereafter above that).

Elon does seem like a BIG so fucking what in the whole scheme of things, but many of us appreciate that various kinds of FUD and manipulations can be employed relatively effectively on a number of occasions, and variations of the "China bans bitcoin" has been used for years, and was even a kind of companion narrative in our recent great movements in BTC mining hashrate - which seems to have largely recovered, even though there were quite a few pundits asserting the BTC mining hashrate as a kind of BIG deal just a few weeks ago.. that also subsequently had been shown to be a pretty BIG so what - whether measured by how quickly it recovered and even the fact that the drop in hashrate was hardly even very large considering the remaining hashpower.. sure a few delays in transactions too and some temporary expensive transactions as well, if you want to get them to go through quickly... but even the mempool seems quite cleared up in the past week or so (maybe even greater than reasonable early projections of high fees forever.. which ended up not even being true.. as the actual facts have played out).

[cAPSLOCK]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5337266.0

Hope a true WO to win

The Dude, doing what he does best!

Bringing joy to those around him in a time of tribulation!

You know.. In this journey we have all met so many different folks.  Those here on this forum, like old friends, some strange class of unlikely comrades.

Sometimes it boggles my mind that we are so lucky to be here.  Not just because of the obvious reason... but this really is a strange and motley pile of folks.  We are lucky to know each other, even virtually.

I cannot help but think from time to time, if bitcoin is not destroyed by Elon, how this forum (or an archive of it) will be scoured over by our curious descendants as they wonder what it felt like to be in our shoes.  As some judge us for not seeing what seems obvious to them, or in fact how we were able to.  Perhaps it is arrogance in the extreme, to think we matter.  But I do.  I have said it before... I think one day folks will be reading these threads to relive what we lived through.  To see what it was like to live through this.

I doubt they will be able to get it 100%.  They will think it should have been easy to hold through all the waves.  But of course they will be very wrong.  Though it has been for some of us, and those of us here for longer have sustained mind boggling gains and losses.

My "real life" friends and acquaintances have no idea at all.  Part of the reason they do not know is I will not tell them because I learned early on (2012-2015ish?) that part of the reason they would not be here is they could NOT handle what we handle.  The vast majority of folks wash out.  I am not trying to sound arrogant.  Maybe something is WRONG with us that we can stand it, lol.  But they even project their ideals.  There is this one guy I think of in particular.  Love the fellow.  But he called me a fool so many times as I help through peaks and valleys.  Smart guy.  IT professional.  Made sure to let me know over and over that I should listen to him, and not lose it all.  That I had been stupidly lucky, but I would evidently hold it all until it was worthless and miss a chance to benefit because I was too stupid to see the obvious writing on the wall.

We do not talk about Bitcoin any more when we see each other now. Ha.  Partly because he is tired of trying to "fix" me, and I imagine partly because he is mad that, at least at this point, it has turned out I was right. I told him he should buy some bitcoin when it was ~$20.

I have quit telling people that.

Even today while all my friends are now making sure I admit publicly I missed the boat on Doge, and am not as smart after all am I?  (Although I did do a rare purchase of it yesterday because I happened to see the Coinbase news right when it happened... I actually locked in a quick 25%.  Such Rare!)

And I am steeling myself for the coming onslaught of "When are you going to get rid off a'l that evil bitcoin that is boiling the oceans" questions.

You guys are the only ones that get it.

I know we disagree on various things... but we are family now.  We have lived through glorious fortune and mind boggling losses together.  Some of us have been destroyed by it all, and some have flourished, and we have helped each other along the way...

And then there is The Dude.  Posting his pump truck meme and running contests.

Future people?  If you actually read this JJG length post?  He is (was?) an important one of us.  He is a pure representation of the hope and goodness that we have all striven to have.  He represents what is best about us.  Joy, generosity, and a resolute bullishness that even the least of us has experienced on this journey...  He was (is!) well worth knowing.  There is a reason he got all the "merits".

Hahaha, yeah y'all wish you were here.  How much is that 0.077BTC contest he is currently running worth now?  I have a feeling it will buy a modest house someday.

[AlcoHoDL]

You know...

[...]

Take my last 2 merits. Great post.

[Kylapoiss]

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5337266.0

Hope a true WO to win

The Dude, doing what he does best!

Bringing joy to those around him in a time of tribulation!

SNIP

This brought a tear in my eye, of happiness.

[Phil_S]

Anyone following the bet between he and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter?  Dave is MUCH more conservative and I think his dominant long term model is more of a softening parabola, and frankly I think according to his tea leaves we may have already peaked in this "cycle".  He and PlanB have some bet revolving around 100k or not, I think.

Masterluc just said 37000 which means we're going in the opposite direction, LOL.

[JayJuanGee]

@100trillionUSD
Net result (after Turkey ban, US tax FUD, Faketoshi law suits, Elon/Tesla energy FUD) is that bitcoin is 5x higher than ~6 months ago. And both S2FX model + onchain data indicate that we are only halfway this bull market. I would not be surprised to see another 5x next ~6 months.

https://twitter.com/100trillionusd/status/1393184522171207680?s=21



$250,000 per bitcoin, now THAT is what I’m talking about

Seems reasonable...

Funny thing continues to be that even if we (royal) might downplay aspects of PlanB in terms of NOt being guaranteed, at the same time many of us actually appreciate that the planB model is the most convincing of the price predicting tools.. so yeah, there tend to be all kinds of news and events that seem to be attacks on BTC price, including some of the ambiguities of shitcoin pumpenings that PlanB did not mention, and still the BTC price plods along and seems to largely be complying with the expectations of the PlanB model... and surely there are several reasonable assertions that the model will likely be overshot as it has been in the past, and of course, not even that expected overshooting should be banked upon..

By the way.. seems to me that $250k-ish is not really overshooting.. it is merely closely aligned with the curve (the upper flat line) of the planB price prediction model.. which largely indicates that such $250k price will passed through several times.. and surely may be a price point that we are feeling that we are kind of struggling to reach again (in something like 2023/2024 after it had already been reached in either late 2021or perhaps early 2022).

Of course I would LOVE for his S2Fx model to be correct... It has me living on an island WAY earlier than my plan, lol.  But this could also be where it just breaks.  This one and the more conservative one...  

Of course, we have to take any predictions about the future with a damned large grain of salt, aka skepticism, but one of the amazing things about stock to flow is that there is no real and meaningful evidence that it is even close to broken, and sure other potentialities are that the model could shift rather than break, so maybe the exact targets end up NOT being reached, but still they end up being on a shifted curve (that could end up shifting in either direction, by the way)...

Anyone following the bet between he and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter?  Dave is MUCH more conservative and I think his dominant long term model is more of a softening parabola, and frankly I think according to his tea leaves we may have already peaked in this "cycle".  He and PlanB have some bet revolving around 100k or not, I think.

Link or it did not happen.  

Honestly I think both of them are clever folks with interesting models, that will be absolutely true, until they are not.  Between them, and out own Toxic and his charts of zen, I have more than enough math-magic to consume and confuse me into just holding.  It's win/win I think.

I suppose this is really how the world works, but still seems to me that each of us should be attempting to assign our own probabilities, so it seems that even if any of us were to really grill PlanB, he might say that there is 70% or 80% or maybe he might even go lower odds that his BTC price trajectory ends up being correct.  Even though sometimes he blusters in ways that make it seem that he is asserting way more certainty to his model (such as 90% or something close to 100%), I doubt that even he would go that far if push comes to shove and he is tortured until he gives his "real" do or die opinion... and so even you, cAPSLOCK, may feel that you are skeptical of PlanB's way of projecting and you want to give some credence to Dave the Wave or some other dweeb, and then ultimately, you should end up assigning your own sets of probabilities based on how much credibility and weight that you assign to various upside and downside scenarios so that in the end, you are coming to your own conclusions

- and sure, I recognize that in the real world, there are likely a decent number of folks who throw up their hands in one direction or another, and some end up relying upon folks who end up largely being correct, and others throw up their hands and end up either not doing shit (remaining a nocoiner) or significantly under invest or sell way too early.  So I am glad that you, cAPSLOCK, seem to fall more in the former rather than the later group.

[Paashaas]

ARGO blockchain buys hydro data centers to realize green Bitcoin mining.

Cryptocurrency mining firm Argo Blockchain has continued its move toward environmentally-friendly bitcoin mining by purchasing two hydroelectric-powered data centers in Quebec, Canada, according to a press release on the London Stock Exchange, on which Argo is listed.

[ivomm]

I have a strong gut feeling that the next attempt to break the 60K resistance will be successful. For some 100K may look mind blowing, but not for me. A 6-7x from the last ATH in the next 6-7 months is what I'm preparing for.  It is completely doable, and honey badger did this so many times in the past years, that I feel obliged to think seriously about it. This is not a fake bulltard post, I just warn everyone including myself not to get caught in the 100K hysteria and expecting it as a top of this bull run. The decision of selling bitcoins is the most serious decision of our lives and we can't afford average Joes' beliefs to affect it in any way. I hope I have the guts to wait at least to 333K and not sell anything until then. Then I personally will have to sell some part for some life changing things, like moving to another country and starting a new life. The rest will remain in bitcoins for my eventual posterity.

P.S. I am used to dissapointments, so even if many more attempts to break the 60K are not successful in the next months and years, I will remain happy and waiting patiently to what I believe will happen some day.

[cAPSLOCK]

Anyone following the bet between he and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter?  Dave is MUCH more conservative and I think his dominant long term model is more of a softening parabola, and frankly I think according to his tea leaves we may have already peaked in this "cycle".  He and PlanB have some bet revolving around 100k or not, I think.

Link or it did not happen.  

It happened on twitter, that I know. I just can't find it

I swear they put some money to it, but here was where they were starting to compare models etc:
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1220357903779008512

And someone mentioned the bet here:
https://twitter.com/Bizniz203/status/1370834342516117505

But I cannot find the bet...  Maybe it was just a handshake, but I swear they put 1BTC or something... hmm.

[Sayeds56]

You know...

[...]

Take my last 2 merits. Great post.

[marcus_of_augustus]

The co-creator of Dogecoin, Jackson Palmer, steps out of shadows to tweet & delete:
Tweet1: "Elon Musk is and always will be a self-absorbed grifter"
Tweet2: "Removing this in 1 min as that's all I have to say and I enjoy the quite life"
Tweet3: "ps. SNL episode was cringe, bro" https://t.co/StkV8u1JyN

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/dogecoin-co-creater-calls-elon-musk-self-absorbed-grifter

.... perfect, from the OG dogeking.

[lightfoot]

But we all know that the earth is a sphere. And that we are living inside of it. As Tolkein told us.

Thank you. I have always wondered if anyone else understood the whole concept of the Hollow Earth.

[cygan]

...

...

when i saw this picture i spontaneously thought of the taproot update

[Arriemoller]

WoW, Israel has gone crazy.

Gaza is being under attack with a lot of air strikes, they have been attacking non-stop the whole night.

2 million Palestinians live in a besieged 365 km².

Waking up to see all those corpses from little children is disgusting.

 

Or.
WoW, Palestine has gone crazy.

Israel is being under attack with a lot of air strikes, they have been attacking non-stop the whole night.

8,6 million Israelis live in a besieged 20 770 km².

Waking up to see all those corpses from little children is disgusting.


The Muslims/Palestines started it, all they have to do to not get bombed is leave Israel alone.