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Question: What happens next?
$45K - 20 (28.2%)
$50K - 51 (71.8%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25436154 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (157 posts by 13+ users deleted.)
BitcoinGirl.Club
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April 24, 2021, 11:28:04 AM


That's exactly what I meant on another thread. Seeking permission to use the image brother.
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somac.
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April 24, 2021, 11:30:25 AM


On Nov 13 2017, #Bitcoin  hit a low of around $5,500 then increased 240% to $20,000 34 days later.
https://twitter.com/bloqport/status/1385908989611888641?s=21

HODL

Honestly, we don't want that again because we all know what followed. Rationally, I'm happy if we have a break for a month or 2 on this one before moving to the 100k level. Emotionally, though it always sucks. BTC is like a drug when its going up, during the corrections it feels like a withdrawal. And when you're getting withdrawals all you want is more drug, even if it's not good long-term.
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April 24, 2021, 11:38:42 AM
Last edit: April 24, 2021, 11:53:21 AM by philipma1957

Hello guys.

I've seen below 40000€ yesterday and bought that dip, what about you, do you still have some cash at the ready for another dip ?

Fuck yeah

I can do that.

I just got a piece at 49k usd

I will get more at 47k if we go there.



hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
hodl
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April 24, 2021, 11:50:55 AM

shahzadafzal
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April 24, 2021, 12:00:32 PM

The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic community, too.  It’s lucky for you that platinum is a corrosion-resistant metal!

Well I would argue.. it really depends on Bitcoin!!!!

Yes Bitcoin... see if Bitcoin is performing well against dollar you will see a totally changed WO community. But when Bitcoin is loosing its ground against dollar yes the community can be toxic or more like a furious angry lioness so you have to be very careful around here!!!

So “The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic sensitive community.”
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April 24, 2021, 12:13:32 PM

The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic community, too.  It’s lucky for you that platinum is a corrosion-resistant metal!

Well I would argue.. it really depends on Bitcoin!!!!

Yes Bitcoin... see if Bitcoin is performing well against dollar you will see a totally changed WO community. But when Bitcoin is loosing its ground against dollar yes the community can be toxic or more like a furious angry lioness so you have to be very careful around here!!!

So “The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic sensitive community.”

You're the toxic one you fuck.  Wink

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April 24, 2021, 12:16:32 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic community, too.  It’s lucky for you that platinum is a corrosion-resistant metal!

Well I would argue.. it really depends on Bitcoin!!!!

Yes Bitcoin... see if Bitcoin is performing well against dollar you will see a totally changed WO community. But when Bitcoin is loosing its ground against dollar yes the community can be toxic or more like a furious angry lioness so you have to be very careful around here!!!

So “The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic sensitive community.”

I don’t know about that exactly...  when btc losing value in dollar terms, then the WO thread is a very famous place for FUD-tards, bear-tards, alt-tards, low level human being-tards, NOcoiners etc

We have to be toxic against some of those for the readers in the dark.... people are easily being mis guided in a DIP and it’s pity it’s been done from people not understanding, not knowing, not believing BTC....

But imo the REAL WO’s aren’t toxic when BTC dips.

Just my humble opinion
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April 24, 2021, 12:32:21 PM
Last edit: April 24, 2021, 12:42:28 PM by gallianooo

Can't we just stay above 50k for fuck sake. I mean I don't think we will be breaking out to new ATH for a couple months but this 40s thing just seems downright depressing.

My 1 year ago self would be laughing at that comment mind you but here I am still complaining, lol.

IMO, staying at 50K$+ and wait couple of months for new ATH again, looks not so probable. If we stay above, probably we will revisit quickly the current ATH. Only +30% to go from 50K.

Maybe we can see as well a V bottom with a strong green candle bounce at 45K ? 43K ? 40K ? lower ? I think, more we will dip now, more the UP reversal will be explosive.
shahzadafzal
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April 24, 2021, 12:32:44 PM

The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic community, too.  It’s lucky for you that platinum is a corrosion-resistant metal!

Well I would argue.. it really depends on Bitcoin!!!!

Yes Bitcoin... see if Bitcoin is performing well against dollar you will see a totally changed WO community. But when Bitcoin is loosing its ground against dollar yes the community can be toxic or more like a furious angry lioness so you have to be very careful around here!!!

So “The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic sensitive community.”

I don’t know about that exactly...  when btc losing value in dollar terms, then the WO thread is a very famous place for FUD-tards, bear-tards, alt-tards, low level human being-tards, NOcoiners etc

We have to be toxic against some of those for the readers in the dark.... people are easily being mis guided in a DIP and it’s pity it’s been done from people not understanding, not knowing, not believing BTC....

But imo the REAL WO’s aren’t toxic when BTC dips.

Just my humble opinion

Dips here and there still acceptable WO can tolerate.... but dip stairs.... hell no!!!
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April 24, 2021, 12:43:12 PM
Last edit: April 24, 2021, 01:08:11 PM by AlcoHoDL
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I have some leftover BTC dust in my Kraken account. I've calculated that when BTC price reaches $80k it will be worth exactly my entire fiat investment in Bitcoin. The plan is to sell that dust and get back my entire fiat capital. This will be purely a symbolic move, and a guarantee of always being in profit, regardless of BTC price.

Personally, I am considering taking your statement with a decently-sized grain of salt, AlcoHoDL, in terms of how it may or may not reflect the actual amount of your stash or the actual amount that you may have invested into BTC - as if your numbers were part of a hypothetical, for example. Wink

By the way, I hope that you are not one of those guys who invested a small amount of money into BTC in the beginning, and then you got worried about investing into BTC at higher prices because you had considered that investing more would raise the level of your BTC costs (total amount invested) and the average cost of your BTC… Sure, I do not conclude that you are one of those kinds of guys, but remember we are batting around ideas on a public thread, and I have some concerns about those kinds of guys, especially if they might have an ongoing cashflow and they are worried that they are not getting richie fast enough because they do not have enough BTC… blah blah blah (surely NOT saying that you, AlcoHoDL, are one of those kinds of guys, even though your comment could be erroneously read to be embracing of that kind of investment practices/strategies.

Sure, there is some point in time that each of us may well have transitioned from BTC accumulation stage to a BTC maintenance stage and then later to a BTC liquidation stage, and surely none of those are absolutes, but instead are likely on a kind of spectrum, even though there might well be various points on the spectrum that each of us might feel that we have invested enough but as our cashflow might change or other personal factors might change, we might consider moving our lil selfies back to accumulation stage, for example, even if we might have considered that we had moved into mostly maintenance stage.  

Another factual change could be that we could end up losing part or all of our BTC stash whether sloppily, due to the acts of others or through some forms of negligence (aka an accident), and not wishing these circumstances on anyone, but just saying that changes in circumstances could cause changes in perspective regarding where we are at in terms of BTC accumulation, maintenance and/or liquidation.

I think it all depends on what one considers "Bitcoin dust"... For most, this could be < 0.001 BTC. For many it could be < 0.1 BTC, and for some it could be < 1 BTC or even < 10 BTC...

As for the amount invested in Bitcoin over the years, sure, I've made some big mistakes, like only investing around $100 on my first BTC purchase (got around 0.5 BTC for that), when I had $10,000 in cash sitting in my desk drawer. Had I invested that amount straight away, I would now have 50 BTC more than I currently have. But, no, I was not worried. I ended up investing that $10,000, and much more, in Bitcoin over the years, and increased my stash, but not as much as I could have. It didn't feel like worrying, but more like being "careful" and "gradual" in my investment moves, rather than throwing everything in straight away. I wish I had done that though. "Early bird" and all that...

About the various stages in Bitcoin management, I guess everyone starts with the accumulation stage, which, to me, spanned a number of years, from 2015 up to 2020, with my BTC purchases getting fewer and fewer (but sometimes larger) year by year. As of now, I do not buy BTC regularly, but I do spend my fiat on goods and services that I would not normally be spending on if I didn't own BTC. You see my point? Owning Bitcoin has enabled me to increase my fiat spending on things I want to have/do. There's no point in buying BTC when I will immediately convert back to fiat to buy something. I just buy it directly with fiat, and do not touch my BTC stash.

Losing BTC... No, never happened to me. Never lost a single sat. The few things I regret are some small (at the time) purchases using BTC, which are now worth thousands of USD. But I've never lost coins due to an accident, lost keys, etc.


Even if BTC goes to zero (I'm being funny now...), I will still have my entire fiat investment capital, as if I never got involved in Bitcoin.

I have frequently pondered over those kinds of possible BTC price performance scenarios and how they might end up playing out in terms of my own personal circumstances and anticipated behaviors under such extreme (and seemingly unlikely) scenarios - especially in a kind of scenario in which BTC prices were to keep going down, including not really knowing and/or accepting the reason and actually some factual circumstances that might NOT be completely known by me and/or other normie BTC investors, and then under such cascading DOWNity BTC price movements, I would be continuing to think that this is a good time to buy because the price is lower and lower and lower,  I act on those lower price moves (isn’t this feeling like some Bcash shitcoin scenario?), but as I keep buying, the BTC price keeps going lower than it had been and never really meaningfully recovers, even though I had continued to erroneously conclude that the bottom is in.  

So, there could be BTC price points in which I should stop buying and just save whatever it is that I had already bought.. but in such scenario, I don’t know when to stop buying because I did not get the memo that bitcoin is ded…

And sure, along the way, I may have well gotten some enjoyment of the hookers, lambos, and blow, but there may have been some things that are more solid in terms of my past investments that were largely enabled because of my having had been in bitcoin, such as property, or other longer term and non-depreciating investments that I made – and yeah, maybe various steak/lobster dinners could be counted too..  and maybe I did end up accomplishing some diversification (not talking about other cryptos, here.. .because I really doubt that there are any realistic scenarios in which BTC goes to zero but some shitcoin actually prospers (or takes over) in such bitcoin going to zero scenario.. not going to go to that level of nonsense with such hypothetical.. that shitcoiners frequently want to pump such a nonsense scenario)..

I very much doubt that BTC will ever drop below $10,000 (208-week MA, which is way higher that my average BTC buying price), let alone go to zero. In that sense, profits are virtually guaranteed. But, there's something psychologically appealing about being able to get back all of my fiat investment capital just by selling some leftover BTC dust that I have sitting unused in my Kraken account, and still be left with my healthy BTC stash, with a 100% certainty of profits (or, at worst, a zero-loss). I'm not saying that I will definitely sell that dust (I probably will not), but I like the feeling of being able to achieve 100% zero-loss certainty just by dusting Kraken and without touching my cold storage.


Not sure if I'll go ahead with the above plan though... If it keeps pumping above $80k (which I'm sure it soon will), greed may take over.

Fair enough.

Sometimes I feel that I am kind of losing track regarding how much value I may have put into bitcoin (or not) and the various ways that such investment value might be tallied up.  

With a quickie ballpark guestimation of my BTC holdings, I see that when BTC prices were as high as almost $65k, my investment amount would have been around 1.333% of the value of my total BTC portfolio (kind of cheating in term of how that is counted, exactly.. but whatever.. we are talking about ballparkenings of what is going on in terms of the investment of yours truly).  

Now, let's say that BTC prices drop down to $47.5k (sure that is the current low within that past 8 hours or so), then my amount invested into BTC ends up going as high as 1.77%..   So around a $17.5k drop in BTC prices does not really seem to create any kind of real large changes in the ratio of how much invested I invested into BTC versus the value of the whole BTC investment portfolio holdings… and therefore the kind of financial and psychological cushion that exists, even with what appears to be about a 27% BTC price drop from about $65k to $27.5k (so far).

I do recall that in December 2018, BTC prices got down to about $3,124, and so at that time, the amount that I had invested into bitcoin was about 26% of the value of the whole BTC investment portfolio, so the move up from $3,124 to $47.5k seems to have made a pretty BIG difference percentage wise, and the correction from nearly $65k to $47.5k did not make a very BIG difference percentage wise…  - but I am not going to deny that the numbers still look decently BIGgily with a $17.5k price drop –

Still a little bit more difficult to get worried about the whole matter as compared to if the BTC prices were to go way down, including if they were to start to get close to the 4 digits.. or even start to approach $20k-ish (seems quite doubtful.. but you never know).  If we were to end up going down to something close to $20k, then my amount invested would end up constituting around 3.6% of the total value of my BTC investment.. The number would be getting BIGGER, but still seems to show that there is a considerable cushion for longer term BTC HODLers, even when BTC prices seem to be dropping outrageously – especially for those with larger average costs per BTC.

From these kinds of examples, some later BTC adopting peeps probably are realizing that the longer that a person is in the bitcoin accumulation and HODLing practices, the less bothered such OG HODLers inevitably seems to be affected by BTC price changes (whether corrections or even BTC price appreciations)  that are more worrisome for the later adopters.

"Cushion" is the key word here. I fully agree, the longer one accumulates and HoDLs BTC, the softer that cushion becomes, almost to the point of enjoying bouncing up and down like a trampoline. Price drops, even big ones, do not cause fear, stress or uncertainty anymore. They could affect some planning and major life decisions, such as the size of the lake to buy, or when to say the final "fuck you" at work, etc., etc., but they will never really worry us too much, to the point of mindrusting some/all of our stash away, or not accumulating when we can. During such times (price now may feel that way to some), newbies and weak hands tend to want to sell, but hardened HoDLers buy and/or HoDL, because we've already been through such times. 2014, 2018-20, tough shit. Would a 27% drop scare us? Hell no!


But I will definitely sell some of that dust amount, just for fun reasons (cocaine, hookers and related items of debauchery & pleasure).

Overall you are not going to get any argument from me, whether some of your skimming off is merely for funzies, or symbolic because I surely do subscribe to variations of profit taking along the way, whether you start slowly at 2x, 10x or 50x or if you wait for some higher number, there is a point that it is reasonable to shave off some profits along the way in my thinkenings.. especially, let’s say for example, you have around a $1k per BTC cost per investment, and maybe that were to constitute a modest 1% to 5% of your total investment portfolio at the time that you had achieved such $1k cost per BTC, and if the BTC price goes up to your number of $80k, then your BTC value has likely dwarfed your various other holdings, whether stocks, bonds, PMs, properties, blah blah blah.  So instead of being 1% to 5%of your total investment portfolio, your BTC holdings are surely in a kind of 90% to 95% range, and shaving off a few percent here or there is not really going to diminish your BTC holdings in any kind of meaningful sense, even though you largely may have ended up cashing out an amount that adds up to your initial investment value (or even more than that initial investment value amount).

Can't disagree with the above. I'm now almost all-in on Bitcoin (I was not initially, but Bitcoin took care of that, with its price appreciation over the years). I do keep a healthy amount of fiat stashed somewhere, to sustain me for several years, as a backup plan, but this is dwarfed by my corn side of things, even at $49k (or $39k, or $29k, or...). As for spending BTC, it's not an easy thing to spend probably the single most important and valuable monetary asset in the history of mankind. I'm just using my monthly fiat income more liberally, and if at some point that's not enough, I'll be skimming some of the corn, but only when necessary. 1 BTC = 1 BTC only if you own BTC.

Edit: Fixed typos.
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April 24, 2021, 12:47:09 PM
Last edit: April 24, 2021, 05:17:11 PM by LoyceV
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

I think it all depends on what one considers "Bitcoin dust"... For most, this could be < 0.001 BTC. For many it could be < 0.1 BTC, and for some it could be < 1 BTC or even < 10 BTC...
Usually, the term "dust' is used for inputs that lower than (or close to) the fee it takes to send them.
I take it that's not the definition you're using Cheesy

Quote
The few things I regret are some small (at the time) purchases using BTC, which are now worth thousands of USD.
Looking back, I've spent a small fortune on daily items. But I like to think of it this way: the more expensive those expenses get, the more my hodlings increase in value. So I've supported the Bitcoin economy while actually using it as electronic money, and I'm still better off because of the increase.
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April 24, 2021, 12:59:26 PM
Last edit: April 24, 2021, 01:58:02 PM by ivomm
Merited by BitcoinBunny (2), vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), somac. (1), serveria.com (1), Krubster (1)

I really don't trust this dip to be sustainable. The bears spent too much coins trying to keep the price below 50K. This is their last chance for cheap coins. Breaking of 100K can be done in less than one month, solely by Microstrategy or Elon Musk, not to mentioln the expanding mass adoption. And currently two market indicators are raised as warning flags of an incoming bull run.

First, depth charts are hugely in favour of the buyers. In Bitstamp there are over 2.1KBTC in buy orders down to 41.3K, vs 291 up to 55K. Bears are now quite pissed off by that. So much efforts in twitter fake accounts, fud, etc. and now they even can't keep the pirce under 50K!  Grin

Second, RSI (14) is the lowest in more than 9 months, so it only can go up from now. And there are countless other market indicators like the BTC reserve on exchanges which continues to decrease. The possibility of reaching 100K in the next few months is quite big, IMO. And if the ETF news comes at prices near 150-200K, that would be awesome. Gold, we are coming for you!  Wink
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April 24, 2021, 01:31:35 PM

Can't we just stay above 50k for fuck sake. I mean I don't think we will be breaking out to new ATH for a couple months but this 40s thing just seems downright depressing.

My 1 year ago self would be laughing at that comment mind you but here I am still complaining, lol.

IMO, staying at 50K$+ and wait couple of months for new ATH again, looks not so probable. If we stay above, probably we will revisit quickly the current ATH. Only +30% to go from 50K.

Well shit, I'm happy for it to get back above ATH even sooner, I just don't want the thing to go parabolic.

Maybe we can see as well a V bottom with a strong green candle bounce at 45K ? 43K ? 40K ? lower ? I think, more we will dip now, more the UP reversal will be explosive.

45k yeah possible, 43k getting real hard, 40K? I doubt it.
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April 24, 2021, 01:52:06 PM

The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic community, too.  It’s lucky for you that platinum is a corrosion-resistant metal!

Well I would argue.. it really depends on Bitcoin!!!!

Yes Bitcoin... see if Bitcoin is performing well against dollar you will see a totally changed WO community. But when Bitcoin is loosing its ground against dollar yes the community can be toxic or more like a furious angry lioness so you have to be very careful around here!!!

So “The Wall Observer is still an extremely toxic sensitive community.”

I don’t know about that exactly...  when btc losing value in dollar terms, then the WO thread is a very famous place for FUD-tards, bear-tards, alt-tards, low level human being-tards, NOcoiners etc

We have to be toxic against some of those for the readers in the dark.... people are easily being mis guided in a DIP and it’s pity it’s been done from people not understanding, not knowing, not believing BTC....

But imo the REAL WO’s aren’t toxic when BTC dips.

Just my humble opinion

Dips here and there still acceptable WO can tolerate.... but dip stairs.... hell no!!!

Been here more as a whole bearmarket.... I now what I’m saying  Kiss
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April 24, 2021, 01:59:30 PM

I really don't trust this dip to be sustainable. The bears spent too much coins trying to keep the price below 50K. This is their last chance for cheap coins. Breaking of 100K can be done in less than one month, solely by Microstrategy or Elon Musk, not to mentioln the expanding mass adoption. And currently two market indicators are raised as warning flags of an incoming bull run.

First, depth charts are hugely in favour of the buyers (In Bitstamp there are over 2.1KBTC in buy orders down to 41.3K, vs 291 up to 55K. Bears are now quite pissed off by that. So much efforts in twitter fake accounts, fud, etc. and now they even can't keep the pirce under 50K!  Grin

Second, RSI (14) is the lowest in more than 9 months, so it only can go up from now. And there are countless other market indicators like the BTC reserve on exchanges which continues to decrease. The possibility of reaching 100K in the next few months is quite big, IMO. And if the ETF news comes at prices near 150-200K, that would be awesome. Gold, we are coming for you!  Wink

Also transaction fees are finally coming down due to whatever was going on in China and the fear sell off transactions all finally getting processed and mempool freeing up.

We could see major price pumpage as we leave April and head into May.








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April 24, 2021, 02:02:50 PM



I hate when people use this argument, like if you actually cared you'd be vegan already, considering that the meat industry is responsible for 30% of the worlds carbon emissions
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April 24, 2021, 02:07:05 PM



I hate when people use this argument, like if you actually cared you'd be vegan already, considering that the meat industry is responsible for 30% of the worlds carbon emissions

How many people die mining gold vs mining Bitcoin. That's enough of an argument to favour a digital asset over a wasteful dangerous physical mining operation done by poor slaves, just for some bars to end up in a vault somewhere. There is more than enough gold mined already to be used for industries for centuries.
It should be considered a worthless asset as it's too dangerous and too polluting to mine.

If people gave a shit about the environment they should be promoting free birth control, mostly in poorer countries.
India has more than doubled in population over my lifetime.
That's completely ridiculous.
Thanos would have to come back several times each century with his snap carry on.
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April 24, 2021, 02:11:54 PM

There is more than enough gold mined already to be used for industries for centuries.
It should be considered a worthless asset as it's too dangerous and too polluting to mine.
When talking about Bitcoin, I often hear the argument: "What if a whale sells everything, the price would drop!". With gold, I've never seen anyone worry about that, while most of the gold is owned by very few entities.

I enjoy watching Goldrush Alaska, don't take that away Cheesy
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April 24, 2021, 02:17:55 PM

There is more than enough gold mined already to be used for industries for centuries.
It should be considered a worthless asset as it's too dangerous and too polluting to mine.
When talking about Bitcoin, I often hear the argument: "What if a whale sells everything, the price would drop!". With gold, I've never seen anyone worry about that, while most of the gold is owned by very few entities.

I enjoy watching Goldrush Alaska, don't take that away Cheesy

The fact we are still hovering around 50K after a week of panic I think that the whale argument becomes less of an issue over time. We probably would see a 350-250k drop I bet, something as ridiculous like that but we will never see prices where an average individual can just hoard a stack of coins in one go without major available colorectal on their side. Doubt we will ever see < $40K again. But don't quote me on that.
Sure, the initial Satoshi coins would have a huge impact but those will probably never move as most people believe.
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April 24, 2021, 02:24:41 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Satoshi is gone for good. If he wanted to cash out, he'd have cashed out already. If he wanted to reassure the world that those coins are gone, he'd burn them by moving them to some known black hole address. The fact that the coins are still there after all that happened with bitcoin and finance and multiteradollar marketcap can have two explanations:

1 - Satoshi is gone for good
2 - Satoshi likes to keep bitcoiners on their toes

I lean towards 1.

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