Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bobdude17]

I've never made a chart in my life. Does this line I drew mean anything?

[Adrian-x]

I've never made a chart in my life. Does this line I drew mean anything?

its what we call the up trend, new line drawers are always told to zoom out before drawing lines, just zoom out and buy cheep coins.

[JayJuanGee]

seriously? 3 posts in a row? hopefully its the only resident of my ignore list 

I thought that you were ignoring me?  So how could you see my posts?  Maybe I do NOT understand ignore b/c so far I have NOT employed such a tool.

It looks like this: https://i.imgur.com/TGd2H7O.png

That's funny... but the print out makes sense, that a subscriber would only see the contents by unignoring the "ignored" poster. 

Maybe I should ignore me, too... b/c I do NOT like to read my own posts?

[aminorex]

I've never made a chart in my life. Does this line I drew mean anything?
...

its what we call the up trend, new line drawers are always told to zoom out before drawing lines, just zoom out and buy cheep coins.

Difference in language.  I would call it the upper resistance limit of a downtrend.  That means that if price goes above that line, either the downtrend is recalibrating to a shallower slope, or it is reversing into a new uptrend (or resuming the overall uptrend which dominates a longer timeline).  If it punches above but sinks back below, it's a false breakout.  If it continues to punch above, and a downward line of shallower slope coincides with multiple tops, it has recalibrated.
You can use historical data to estimate the relative probabilities of these scenarios, but they may or may not vary with other environmental factors.

[bobdude17]

I've never made a chart in my life. Does this line I drew mean anything?
...

its what we call the up trend, new line drawers are always told to zoom out before drawing lines, just zoom out and buy cheep coins.

Difference in language.  I would call it the upper resistance limit of a downtrend.  That means that if price goes above that line, either the downtrend is recalibrating to a shallower slope, or it is reversing into a new uptrend (or resuming the overall uptrend which dominates a longer timeline).  If it punches above but sinks back below, it's a false breakout.  If it continues to punch above, and a downward line of shallower slope coincides with multiple tops, it has recalibrated.
You can use historical data to estimate the relative probabilities of these scenarios, but they may or may not vary with other environmental factors.

I expected to be told that I would need another line somewhere. Doesn't a "channel" have to form somewhere to make this valid?

[PoolMinor]

Did I zoom out enough. According to the intersection ~$462 is it.





Edit:
Note that I only drew 2 lines, one starting out in April 2013 (lower line) and the other starting at November 29 2013 (upper line)
I do not nor do I want anyone to think I have any "special" TA skills.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Arbitrary Icon Slumber Method (non-)prediction for Saturday Mar/15

Huobi

The red and green strokes are actual Huobi hourly prices.  The blue square is the last prediction (see below), and the light blue-gray squares are the older ones.  The orange and grey dots are the Slumber Points, the mean Huobi prices at 19:00 UTC every day.  Each point is a Ruby (orange) if the hourly volume V_h for 19:00--19:59 UTC is less than 0.005 times the daily volume V_d 00:00--23:59 UTC; and is a Lignite (grey) otherwise. The grey lines are trends fitted a posteriori to the True Points.

Today (Mar/14) seems to be a Lignite (V_h/V_d ~ 849/90000 = 0.00943 > 0.005) and therefore should be ignored.  Since the previous Ruby was isolated and did not seem to continue some earlier trend, there is no point in giving a prediction today.  Huobi's traders will have to figure out the price by themselves.

Bitstamp

The red and green strokes are actual Bitstamp hourly prices.  The squares are previous predictions.  The dots and lines are Huobi's Slumber Points and trends scaled by the currency conversion factor R (6.40 for Feb/07--09, 6.00 for Mar/04--10, and 6.12 for all other dates).

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Friday 2014-03-14, 07:38 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Friday 2014-03-14, 19:00--19:59 UTC

Huobi's predicted price: 3918 CNY
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3821 CNY
Error: 97 CNY (~16 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 645 USD
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 631 USD
Error: 14 USD

NOTE: Admittedly minerals are not as exciting as dinosaurs.  For the next prediction I am considering tubers, staple guns, protozoa, gaskets, subatomic particles, or something like that.

[kurious]

Did I zoom out enough. According to the intersection ~$462 is it.

Please not 462 - under my average buy.

I will have to buy more!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[seleme]

Currently, what is your next buy point?  I am thinking that my next buy point would be under $610... and then again at $580... yet my buy point will fluctuate based on how quickly we are getting to that point.. b/c when possible, I would prefer to buy at the lower price... like any good capitalist.... hehehehe

$500 would be cool

I try to stage buys just above support levels, sized proportionate to the anticipated support.  If momentum seems strong, I will bias to the lower end of the bid stack.  I see resistance at 625, 618, 608, 600, 584 on technical grounds.  I think 550 is dreaming.

Anything is possible if total bid sum keeps depleting. No Gox style fiat withdrawal halt to save us this time.

Yes, because all fiat is on bids

None of my fiat is in bids right now, not much to be honest, I've bought lot of bitcoins last few days to start buying alts but bid sum means pretty much nothing if there is will to buy from "nowhere". Just as ask sum doesn't mean too if people gonna dump without putting asks.

[TERA]

Did I zoom out enough. According to the intersection ~$462 is it.





Edit:
Note that I only drew 2 lines, one starting out in April 2013 (lower line) and the other starting at November 29 2013 (upper line)
I do not nor do I want anyone to think I have any "special" TA skills.

if you are drawing a support back into a previous year, then it can't be linear - it has to be logarithmic

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[bitcool]

seems to form a perfect rising  wedge, to my untrained eyes of course.

[tailor]

I've never made a chart in my life. Does this line I drew mean anything?

its what we call the up trend, new line drawers are always told to zoom out before drawing lines, just zoom out and buy cheep coins.

That line clearly shows a looming CCMF to the moon uptick: a double bottom cross with a side of bear trap showing billions in pent up demand for bitcoin to be triggered by the re-buy of lost MTGox coins.  It's definitely or bullish, or bearish - we won't know until you complete your homework and add the mandatory dinosaurs.

[shmadz]

Did I zoom out enough. According to the intersection ~$462 is it.





Edit:
Note that I only drew 2 lines, one starting out in April 2013 (lower line) and the other starting at November 29 2013 (upper line)
I do not nor do I want anyone to think I have any "special" TA skills.

if you are drawing a support back into a previous year, then it can't be linear - it has to be logarithmic

I'm not sure if logarithmic would be any better. I don't know from lines, but shouldn't you be picking your tops and bottoms from the same time frame, regardless of the scale?

BTW, I'm feeling like one more dip to the 450 range and then we will see some fireworks.

Wild guess on timeframes? <500 before the end of this month, >1000 by the end of April.

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):


             !    Fri !    Sat !    Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !    Fri !                     
  EXCHANGE   !  03/07 !  03/08 !  03/09 !  03/10 !  03/11 !  03/12 !  03/13 !  03/14 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |  21.45 |   9.70 |   9.12 |  13.40 |   9.17 |  12.70 |   6.73 |   8.68 | USD                 
  BitFinEx   |  17.23 |  10.97 |   8.29 |  11.60 |   3.63 |   7.29 |   3.31 |   5.53 | USD                 
  BTC-e      |  13.54 |   8.71 |   6.52 |   7.16 |   5.09 |   7.96 |   7.43 |   3.76 | USD,EUR,RUR         
  Kraken     |   1.20 |   0.55 |   0.64 |   0.57 |   0.45 |   0.56 |   0.40 |   0.48 | EUR                 
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.38 |   0.31 |   0.20 |   0.39 |   0.41 |   0.37 |   0.35 |   0.20 | EUR                 
  CaVirtEx   |   0.24 |   0.12 |   0.15 |   0.13 |   0.18 |   0.13 |   0.13 |   0.11 | CAD                 
  CampBX     |   0.07 |   0.03 |   0.02 |   0.05 |   0.06 |   0.04 |   0.03 |   0.06 | USD                 

  SUBTOTAL   |  54.11 |  30.39 |  24.94 |  33.30 |  18.99 |  29.05 |  18.38 |  18.82 |                     

  OKCoin     | 109.70 | 146.46 | 136.24 | 119.00 |  68.50 |  90.60 |  60.70 |  97.80 | CNY                 
  Huobi      |  96.37 | 119.46 | 103.51 |  95.10 |  55.00 |  77.90 |  65.40 |  78.40 | CNY                 
  BTC-China  |   4.87 |   5.08 |   4.24 |   3.34 |   3.11 |   3.16 |   2.89 |   2.97 | CNY                 
  Bter       |   0.32 |   0.28 |   0.21 |   0.27 |   0.34 |   0.49 |   0.26 |   0.19 | CNY                 

  SUBTOTAL   | 211.26 | 271.28 | 244.20 | 217.71 | 126.95 | 172.15 | 129.25 | 179.36 |                     

  TOTAL      | 265.37 | 301.67 | 269.14 | 251.01 | 145.94 | 201.20 | 147.63 | 198.18 |                     


All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that Bitcoinwisdom uses your local time, so the date may appear to be off by 1 day.  For example, if you are 2 hours west of Greenwich, it may show "01/14 22:00" when the UTC time is "01/15 00:00".)

[JorgeStolfi]

Total trade volume today (Fri Mar/14 00:00--23:59 UTC), on the exchanges that I monitor, was ~198 kBTC.  That is 35% more than yesterday's but still 25% less than last Friday (Mar/07).

Trade volume outside China was practically the same as yesterday (18 kBTC).  Exchange BTC-e (3.76 kBTC) lost 49% of its volume and slipped to third place, after Bitstamp (8.68, +28%) and Bitfinex (5.53, +67%).

Trade volume in China increased 39% (from 129 to 179 kBTC).  OKCoin led again, with 55% of that trade against 44% of Huobi,

China's slice of the total volume increased again from 88% to 91%.

[SilverandBitcoins]

Lots of talk of BTC taking off sometime in the near future and of LTC as well because of the Chinese exchange offering LTC....what about PPC?  Very little mention of it and the price is very low in relation to what it's been.

[KeyserSoze]

pollution from coal
citation: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_the_coal_industry (Sterilised by Wikipedia PR firm.)

I don't know much about coal vs. oil because any non-renewable is quickly going the way of the dinosaur. It seems next to pointless to look into it from my perspective. I got my EV because I thought it was cool, and for me it is. I love it. I enjoy driving by the gas pump without stopping. I enjoy the fact I haven't had maintenance since I bought it years ago because it needs no oil changes or filters, etc. I'm hoping if bitcoin gets up enough to add a solar array to the house and then I won't even need coal electricity. It would be a hard sell to convince me an EV running on the sun is less green than an ICE car running on gas.

[KeyserSoze]

I've never made a chart in my life. Does this line I drew mean anything?

Depends.. is this the chart for the company that owns NewsWeak?