conclusion: this time it is different. you cannot compare the bull run of 2017 one-to-one with the situation today.
reason: if you look into the chart of the pre 2017 ATH you will recognize that after the burst of a mini bubble the low after was never lower than the high of the former mini bubble. but this time the low is lower than the pre high. that leads to pure panic in the market. you can called it manipulation of the market.
First line from below: ATH 2017
Second line from below: High of the first Mini Bubble
Third line from below: High of the second Mini Bubble
the Low of the second Mini Bubble is much lower than the High of the first Mini Bubble. the aim was to shake out the weak hands.
EDIT: updated with a pic.
EDIT2: second pic is the same as the first one but with a logarithmic scale. we have a long way to go in front of us until we will reach the next bear phase.
EDIT3: something to consider too: before the ATH 2017 there were no PRO tools like (regulated) Futures and Options available to trade with. the burst of the ATH Bubble of 2017 happened at the day of the start of the BTC Futures on CME.
Seems to me, Gyrsur-meiser, you are jumping to some weird ass and seemingly all over the place conclusions way too soon.. and so fucking what if we have all kinds of deviations regarding what is expected and blah blah blah... we better fucking get through another couple of years to see how this cycle played out in that longer term before jumping to conclusions regarding how it might end in terms of being sufficiently different to matter anyhow.
Sure you can have your lil theories about blah and blah and blah.. and looking at lines on charts, but where the fuck is your discussion of the real important price prediction models of the day.. (stock to flow, four year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption), so without adequately incorporating the actual convincing theories and trying to make your own outline you better NOT be overly banking on such theories in terms of thinking that you know the next step of king daddy (and the likely success or not) of the upcoming manipulation attempts.. including your little nonsense assertion that CME caused the end of the 2017 cycle (not saying that it had no role, but still).
For sure, many of us who have been around the bitcoin block a few times and have been watching this space (likely including ur lil selfie) have already come to recognize that various ongoing battles have been going on in bitcoinlandia for years and years and years and those battles include both informational and financial ammunition.. so sure the more players, adopters, rich folks or whatever, the more money (and instruments) and even severity of misinformation it takes to attempt to move the BTC market opposite to the UPpity trend that we seem to be in but cannot even bank on our most likely trend, either..even if it currently seems to have strong UPpity momentum with a considerably large challenge to it that may or may not end up being successful (still in progress)...
Will the bear tards either be able to knock us out of this bullmarket or to end the bullmarket earlier than anticipated remains a million and a half dollar question that none of us have hardly any clue about in spite your lines on charts.. and yeah any of us know that the bears are going to try to push the BTC price as low as they can and to keep it down for as long as they can.. and sure sometimes they are going to be successful for a decently long-ass time, and other times they just lose fucking control over the whole battle and they either cannot sustain negative sentiment or they cannot achieve the levels of negative sentiment that they want to achieve to shake HODLers from their coins (and they can ONLY make up so many make-believe coins before that might well end up biting them in the ass, too) and the revert to the mean and even going beyond the mean to make up for the too long DOWNity manipulation ends up causing this time to NOT be different because they did the same kinds of shit as previously, and they were ONLY able to hold down the honey badger for so long before it threw a temperature tantrum and told them all to fuck off their lil selfies...
As I am writing this post, I am considering that maybe you and I are not seeing the overall BTC price dynamics matter very much differently, even though I do sometimes get a bit hostile to charts that seem like they want to plow their own path, and your opening assertion about this time being different did also kind of seem a wee bit over the top of a premature of a conclusion.... I will concede that there might be some redemption in some of your ideas, even though they pushed a few of my buttons.. which just might mean that some lines in my taproot signaling are crossed, and blaming my whole triggeredness on Elon or Carl Icahn might not be a bad next move for me.
Still not 100% following you, but this dip was certainly nothing like the 2017.
it's almost a rule that in a bullish phase the lows of bubbles are not lower than the former highs of the pre bubbles. there are very few exceptions if you scan the chart.
in a bullish phase the price will never fall under the former ATH. exception was in January 2015 but the fundamental was the break-in into Bitstamp (the second important marketplace after Mt.Gox which bankrupted in early 2014).
it's very clear for me that this is not the end. why you guys have so much s**t in your panties?
I guess your various uses of absolutes in this response including your all over the place attempts at analysis that seems to be wanting to plow your own path is kind of showing me why your analysis is irritating to me, and no it's not because I am shitting about any of this.. and even some of the earlier shitters do seem to be kind of getting over it - however, another challenge to the lower $30ks might cause a few more previously considered strong hands to lose their cool.. yet I am not sure if the bears have enough ammunition to play that card - even if there could be some shitcoin cards that could be dropped and really create some potential drag - but not even sure if that card is likely to get played.
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