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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 25438602 times)
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Torque
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May 06, 2021, 06:23:13 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Sick of seeing BCH rise, want to see it pummeled into the ground. Mind you it's still only 2.5% of BTC price and they're celebrating like the flippening is at any moment haha

I’m sick of seeing utter shitcoins pumping. I checked one of my exchange accounts this morning & I see 1INCH pumping 25%, ETC is up about 200% in the last month, DOGE is out of control, EOS up 25%, ADA up 22%.

I mean what the hell is 1INCH.

WTF is this nonsense?

I’ll admit, it’s beginning to piss me off.

You were alive during all of 2017, yes?

Same whale playbook, different year.
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Dabs
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May 06, 2021, 06:53:24 PM

I’m sick of seeing utter shitcoins pumping. I checked one of my exchange accounts this morning & I see 1INCH pumping 25%, ETC is up about 200% in the last month, DOGE is out of control, EOS up 25%, ADA up 22%.

It is a bit odd. According to my little spreadsheet, bitcoin should be at 82,000 or so with the rise in some foundational alts like ETC and LTC. It's possible this is alts just "catching up" to bitcoin's run but if so it means the ratios have changed significantly towards what they were in the olden days. I'll have to do a bit of analysis to see what is "frothy" and what is "rational" in terms of that ratio.

(example: LTC used to be worth .01 btc. It dropped to .003, held at .004 forever and now is in the .006 range. It went as high as .018 during the last stupid altcoin run. So is .004 the new "normal", or is it just reverting to .01? Time will tell, however dipshit coins could be clouding the waters)

(ETC is another oddball: It's real ethereum, but with the balls not to change to make the DAO people rich. As such it was pretty much left in the dust in the ETH runups, but since it can do everything ETH can do there is no reason to run the functionality of stuff on overly expensive ETH. And since ETH as a store of value is silly and it's a "bad faith" coin that will fuck people over to save others why not move back to ETC? Interesting)

Alts are interesting, but it's a difficult game to play. I mean, if you were lucky, or smart enough (and not many people are) or can see what would have happened and acted on it, for example, getting a whole bunch of them during the BTC rally in December 2020... then hodling them all until at least today, ... you'd be up 1000% to 5000% or something.

But I don't know a single DOGE trader who bought a bunch at 0.01 and sold it today at 0.60. I only hear of miners who mined and kept it, or random small traders who got a few hundred or few thousand coins and that's it. I have not heard of anyone say they got 1 million DOGE last year to sell it today.

I do hear of ETH and LTC and XMR and DASH and other big alt holders do more than $10k USD worth of those.

ETC is interesting too, in that, it can do everything ETH does, but for some reason, none of the big DEXs are on it. Still, it is gaining in value.


Now, I'm still a Bitcoin Maxi at heart, but I do have small "token" amounts in alts just because it's also a good asymmetric bet for now. Eventually they will all turn into fiat or BTC (or perhaps a stablecoin.) None of the alts I've directly invested in, just happen to have them through airdrops or swaps and tips.

You can say all you want about alts, but the thing is, they are worth billions now. The top 10 is not going to disappear anytime soon. Of course, the top 10 from 10 years ago are mostly gone now, so maybe 10 years from now will be another set of top 10 alts, but it would seem, at least in this case, ETH and LTC are going to remain on the list for awhile. It's quite possible DOGE is going to stick around, just on meme power alone, with no active development.

Uniswap v3 just released, and ... UNI airdropped to anyone last year who even did a failed transaction on their DEX. Anyone who held the airdropped tokens until now would have $16k USD. (I sold mine a few days after the air drop... still, not too bad, can't complain getting a "free" airdrop.)
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May 06, 2021, 07:05:27 PM

On BTC credit cards, it looks like Bitpay does the conversion to currency when you load it. It would be easier to keep track of card reloads, than individual cups of coffee.
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May 06, 2021, 07:09:26 PM

What the hell is this Bitcoin diamond BCD???
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May 06, 2021, 07:14:47 PM



something like this, uh?

Yup.
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May 06, 2021, 07:51:06 PM

Apparently it takes about three days before you see the cashback in your wallet, but using your card on money remittance services doesn't earn you any cashback, so I guess I wont get anything from paying with Paypal.
I'll know for sure in three days.
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May 06, 2021, 07:59:40 PM

What the hell is this Bitcoin diamond BCD???

Wrong thread. Check the shitcoin scam Ann boards.
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May 06, 2021, 08:02:49 PM

You can say all you want about alts, but the thing is, they are worth billions now.

The exact same thing can be said about the penny stock market, worth billions. And many of them can rally 100x or 1000x in the blink of an eye. And many of them routinely do, it's just that the public doesn't see the pump and dumps because the pink sheets are nicely tucked away in the garbage corner of the internet. Out of sight, out of mind.

So "being worth billions" can still mean nothing in the grand scheme of things...it doesn't legitimize anything.
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May 06, 2021, 08:10:04 PM

What the hell is this Bitcoin diamond BCD???
Wrong thread. Check the shitcoin scam Ann boards.

Of course it is... but who in the world pump their trading volume from $42m to $373m in few hours.
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May 06, 2021, 08:31:12 PM
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (3), AlcoHoDL (1)

[edited out]

Quoting the entirety of your long, but well laid out post. Too little time to dissect it into parts, too little time for a proper reply, so I'll just post some general comments.

Yeah, I sound bearish, don't I? The thing is, whenever I refer to "moon", "fuck-you", "fuck-you"x10, or whatever other level of Bitcoin price, I usually refer to what I call stable prices. By stable I mean very strong lower bounds on BTC price. I.e., a $1M / BTC stable price point could mean an instantaneous (unstable) price that varies between $2M and $3M / BTC. As an example, one could say that the current stable BTC price is around $20k, meaning that there is a near-certainty that the price of Bitcoin will not fall below said level. I'm talking about the kind of certainty that can enable one to make life-changing decisions, such as quitting a job, buying a house, relocating to another city or even to another country. And as Bitcoin price rises, the distance (or safety margin) between stable and unstable levels should be larger, or at least I would like it to be larger, the reason being that this is not pocket money anymore, nor is it a matter of picking a Playboy bunny vs. Frenchie, or whatever other side activity or secondary, reversible decision. At $millions / BTC price levels, things can get much more serious, to the point of making irreversible decisions, once you flick the "fuck-you" switch, so you should aim to have a rock-solid foundation upon which to base said decisions.

If we take Saylor's 200% (4x) per year Bitcoin price appreciation figure, that is based on past performance, we end up with an instantaneous (unstable) price of around $3.5M / BTC by mid-2024. But, does past performance guarantee future performance (cliché, but...)? Add to that the possibility of long winter years ahead, such as 2018-2019. Will we reach a stable price of $1M / BTC by 2024? I hope so, and it's certainly doable. Saylor predicts it, S2F models predict it, you predict it, who am I to disagree? Will it take a few more years to get there? Maybe, it's quite possible, and it's my realistic (albeit a little bearish) guess. Will we ever get there? This one is a sure bet, and that's what really matters.

In fact, we do not even have to agree on all aspects when we are throwing out a bunch of numbers that describe various aspects of how we arrive at our conclusions, and even though historically, one of us might be able to look at the post of the other, and say that JJG or AlcoHoDL was full of shit or both of us were full of shit or one of us ended up being more correct than the other, but in the end, it is likely a big so fucking what because each of us might be tweaking our strategies based on our views of bitcoin and where bitcoin might be going, but we are also trying to figure out how our various personal factors might fit into the equation in order that we might NOT end up pulling the fuck you lever too soon, which ends up being a point that both of us agree upon, even though when it comes to specific application, each of us might end weighing some of the components, including what we might believe is the bottom or what we might consider to be "relatively stable" prices in a different way, so then those measurements might cause other ways in which we behave differently including how much we might end up withdrawing from our stash in order to attempt to continue to maintain our lifestyle or hopefully not having to go back to work or something like that after we might have already pulled the fuck you lever.  5 or 10 years after pulling the fuck you lever, we might not even have the skills, the energy, the will power or the keeping up with aspects of our profession to realistically being able to even earn close to what we had been able to earn at the time we had chosen to pull the fuck you lever rather than playing it safe and keeping or J.O.B.s... hahahahahahha
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May 06, 2021, 08:37:30 PM
Last edit: May 07, 2021, 12:37:31 AM by Biodom
Merited by suchmoon (9), friends1980 (2), shahzadafzal (1)

I have a somewhat different explanation to what we are currently observing:

In Dec 2020, imho, we went through something like a phase shift (from mostly geeks or computer professionals) to masses.
Something similar occurred during 1997-1998/1999 transition in Internet stocks.
I will give you an example-in 1997 and early 1998 there were a bunch of Internet search companies: Yahoo, Excite, Lycos, infoseek.
Yahoo dominated by a lot and the rest had very low $ value.
Then, as the internet hype began, they started to re-price even the lowly one's, which was a complete surprise to me. They began trading at multiple billions.
Of course, later google came in and conquered it all.

My point is, I think that in Dec 2020 we underwent a similar transition and they are now pricing former losers to a much higher market cap.
We had btc forks at 0.5-1%, now they move them to 3% and because btc market cap is so huge, this resulted in hundreds of %% appreciation for basically junk.
Do you think that average Joe can figure this out immediately? No, so bitcoin whatever forks feel cheaper than bitcoin, same for the rest of them, but note that the most rallying right now in % are forks, not even something more or less original. How long will this last? Who knows, everything in cryptocurrencies happens much faster.

Internet bubble was in full bloom approximately 2 years: from Spring 1998 to spring of 2000.  Of course, those stocks rarely went up 50% a day.
At first I thought that they (s-tcoins) are all about to collapse, but it all depends on whether we are in the hockey stick situation or not.
If billions or at least hundreds of millions of people suddenly decide to rush in, the stick will continue for a while.
Anecdotally, as I mentioned before, my co-workers are starting to share their fast "wins". It could snowball fast or really fast.

Additionally, instead of focusing on a leader (btc), marginal hedge funds sometimes focus on individual "players" and try to generate some alpha there. There is already one fund that is almost explicitly focusing on an alt blockchain and "pushed" it from $2 to $45 in four months. I have no idea re the benefits of that unnamed network, but the fact that someone is 'sponsoring' them is very well known. It was not retail, at least initially.

Last time (in 2018), we went down to 33% dominance before reversing back and peaking at above 70.
Something similar might happen here, unless some really big money starts a serious btc allocation and I don't mean measly 10-100 mil here and there (per fund).

In any case, btc is easy-you buy and you hodl.
In the rest the question is when to sell, which is almost impossible to pick correctly.


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May 06, 2021, 08:45:26 PM

What the hell is this Bitcoin diamond BCD???
Wrong thread. Check the shitcoin scam Ann boards.

Of course it is... but who in the world pump their trading volume from $42m to $373m in few hours.

how many people are now in those types of "CMC-entities" (for those who dislike the term c-o)?
maybe it is 100 mil, but could be several hundreds of mil people. So, what's $373mil? It's nothing.
As I said, my normally down to earth colleagues are doing it, my son's friends are doing it (coinbase+robinhood, yes, this does not explain this particular one, but I digress).
A tidal wave is happening and they are going for the cheap stuff (hopefully, just initially).
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May 06, 2021, 08:50:09 PM
Merited by LoyceV (4)

The fact that the Fed is saying that they're ok with runaway inflation means that every asset class will gain value from now until they stop pumping tons of money into the economy and finally raise interest rates.
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May 06, 2021, 08:51:22 PM
Merited by Arriemoller (1)

Alt season is annoying me too but it’s all just noise/



Eyes on the prize boys, eyes on the prize. Keep stackin’ & HODL.

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May 06, 2021, 08:59:53 PM

The fact that the Fed is saying that they're ok with runaway inflation means that every asset class will gain value from now until they stop pumping tons of money into the economy and finally raise interest rates.
 

yea, I recall discussing it here a while ago.
Now-assets. When the "official" inflation peaks at 15-20% (within 5 years in my estimate), convert part of assets into long term bonds and "cruise" for the next 20-30 years.
 
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May 06, 2021, 09:30:07 PM



Aaaaha this is me... ooow not can’t be, flawed, I have had more as 2-3 Gf’s, I did a lot of them blue pills for maximum pressure though at college and out college, my sub 100 iq is what attracted them I guess.
Mostly when this pill worked out I did some honest science thinking in my head over the movie I saw the night before, those movies which reflects “the succesfilm assimilation of people in losers society”  ofcourse as an atheist with lots of fiat on my bank account I love to follow the news and hear our financial expert on TV talking which stocks I have to buy.... those guys don’t fall for the BTC trap and so I don’t fall for it as well.
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May 06, 2021, 09:46:06 PM

The fact that the Fed is saying that they're ok with runaway inflation means that every asset class will gain value from now until they stop pumping tons of money into the economy and finally raise interest rates.


Sure, but then BTC appreciation will cease to be "real". The question is not how much BTC is worth in paper dollars, it's how much is it worth in Lambos?
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May 06, 2021, 09:53:06 PM

The fact that the Fed is saying that they're ok with runaway inflation means that every asset class will gain value from now until they stop pumping tons of money into the economy and finally raise interest rates.


Yeah.. I did not anticipate being handed the opportunity of a lifetime on a silver platter would make me feel so sad.
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May 06, 2021, 11:07:59 PM
Merited by DaRude (1)

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May 06, 2021, 11:17:13 PM

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