Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Biodom]

see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg57059967#msg57059967

People proclaimed that the guy is midrust-lite, but examining his lines makes some sense (as a possibility).

A quick 2021 vs 2013 comparison...

2013: up from ~16 to $250 (1300%), down from 250 to 65 (-71%)
2020-2021: up from ~10K (where bull started going vertical) to ~65K(450%), back down currently to 30K at the current low (-53.8%).
At 25K (hypothetical) it would be -61.5% (close to a Fib number) and at 13K (close or at 200wk average) it would be -80%.
This shows to me that 25K is possible as this downturn low, but even this one seems excessive since we did not peak as dramatically as in 2013, therefore it is more likely than not that we either already bottomed at 30K (almost -54%) or would bottom somewhere between 25 and 30K.
 
Pure tech analysis guys would probably love for it to go to -61.8%, which would be just a tad below 25K (something like 24.7K if the top was actually 64.65 and not exactly 65).

TLDR; We already had enough decline compared with 2013, but could go to about 25K in the oversold scenario. Anything lower would be a problem.

[gembitz]

you could say the crackdown on Chinese mining is good for BTC as this will reduce the carbon footprint. They use mostly coal fired power plants.  Now the rest of the world pics up China's slack with more energy efficient grids.  Next there will newly designed miners ( probably in the works now) that will dramatically reduce power usage while increasing computation abilities. 

CHINA BTCANS NFTS WHEN? =)))) LOLLLL

[cAPSLOCK]

Explanation

See!  This is super useful to see.  It is encouraging to see so little piled up on the sell side considering the damn valley we are currently in.  But to honor our lone dissenter I have reduced the sizes in the quote to teensy-weensie.  Wait.  That sounded like something JJG would say.  Uh oh... something might have gotten stuck down in there.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

Whoa, its the Chart Buddy.

So what's the consensus here, lower or higher low?

I have no idea what's going to happen.  But I am HOPING for  a higher low harder than pretty much ever.  Seems like BTC is n a SUPER vulnerable position right now, and at the same time there seems to be a firehose of FUD being released, etc.  And we have "captain smarter-than-everyone-else" rocking the boat on twitter, and nations banning it.

If there is a worldwide collusion we should see a BIG one after Russia now.

The fundamentals have not changed significantly.  It's hard to imagine that these prices are not going to attract tons of money waiting on the sidelines.

[cAPSLOCK]

Fcuk.  Here we go.  We really need to bounce here.

Man... this is NOT big volume.

This all seems alternate universe level wrong.

[gallianooo]

see https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg57059967#msg57059967

People proclaimed that the guy is midrust-lite, but examining his lines makes some sense (as a possibility).

A quick 2021 vs 2013 comparison...

2013: up from ~16 to $250 (1300%), down from 250 to 65 (-71%)
2020-2021: up from ~10K (where bull started going vertical) to ~65K(450%), back down currently to 30K at the current low (-53.8%).
At 25K (hypothetical) it would be -61.5% (close to a Fib number) and at 13K (close or at 200wk average) it would be -80%.
This shows to me that 25K is possible as this downturn low, but even this one seems excessive since we did not peak as dramatically as in 2013, therefore it is more likely than not that we either already bottomed at 30K (almost -54%) or would bottom somewhere between 25 and 30K.
 
Pure tech analysis guys would probably love for it to go to -61.8%, which would be just a tad below 25K (something like 24.7K if the top was actually 64.65 and not exactly 65).

TLDR; We already had enough decline compared with 2013, but could go to about 25K in the oversold scenario. Anything lower would be a problem.

Numbers looks not so correct. We started around 13$ december 2012 and the peak was 260$ so X20 in april 2013 (let's say around +2000%).
I am agree with you for the 10K$. Even if we were already at 20K$ during december 2020, we started to go (really) UP from the 10K$. So assuming we made approximately x6 till the (local) top.

In this situation, got a dip more than 50% looks already really high and really oversold. More in prorata to go from 13 to 260 and go back to 65.

This scenario and proportion would be more correct if we had top to the 100K$ / 100K€ so let's say 100-120K$. But definitely not à 64/65K$...

[Toxic2040]

the one o'clock confirmation bias report

at this point I would have to say there is more than a even chance we see twenties again or lower
and that same percentage that we have seen the top this cycle
it would take some stupendous news I think for continuation rally to gain a foothold
the charts are a train wreck

yes, I am quite fallible..dyor
D


W

#blahblahblah

[UnDerDoG81]

Just a reminder, get your coins out of the exchanges. Only a question of time until the next "exchange hack" story. When history repeats...

[shahzadafzal]

$33k

Who are we blaming today? Elon? China? Russia? Who?

Or know one... because "FUD is temporary, #Bitcoin is forever"

[luckygenough56]

$33k

Who are we blaming today? Elon? China? Russia? Who?

Or know one... because "FUD is temporary, #Bitcoin is forever"

it's just some kind of low retest imo it was bound to happen

for now

[Biodom]

Interestingly, bitcoin is less than 1% of total wealth, but they are talking 50% of time about it on various media outlets vs stocks/bonds/etc.
Does it mean that we are going to 150 tril or 75tril if stock/bond market gets halved? lol
Bitcoin is definitely punching way above it's current weight.

[strawbs]

I think it's about time to get this show on the road, so thought I'd save Bob the hassle

[cAPSLOCK]

$33k

Who are we blaming today? Elon? China? Russia? Who?

Or know one... because "FUD is temporary, #Bitcoin is forever"

it's just some kind of low retest imo it was bound to happen

for now

Kinda looks like it at this point...

So, is this good or bad:

[Biodom]

$33k

Who are we blaming today? Elon? China? Russia? Who?

Or know one... because "FUD is temporary, #Bitcoin is forever"

it's just some kind of low retest imo it was bound to happen

for now

Kinda looks like it at this point...

So, is this good or bad:

it went down because @JJG repeatedly denied that there is any resistance at 42-43K  ..., but the pic above says it quite clearly: there was such resistance.
let's the blame game commence...he he
Every time he/she utter some "non-technical" analysis, it does the EXACT opposite.
Almost a perfect indicator (in reverse)-those are actually very valuable for traders. Unfortunately, I am not doing much trading.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

Oh dear..


https://twitter.com/WorldCryptoNet/status/495715681132765184

 Will another law making it even more illegal to hold computer systems hostage for bitcoin do anything actually?  Maybe the Russian oligarchs should just embrace bitcoin rather than using their puppets to enact more useless laws.  

That was from 2014.

@Paashaas traveled back in time to bring us a fresh fud-zicle.
I fell for it...almost.

[nanobtc]

Today I:
Sold a rusty, dirty old 4x4 truck for fiat.
Traded the rusty, dirty old fiat for a few slivers of clean, shiny BTC.

Life is good.

[bitcoinPsycho]

What the fuck is this shit....my bitcoins are only 300% up in the last 12 months . Fuck this shit

[Richy_T]

you could say the crackdown on Chinese mining is good for BTC as this will reduce the carbon footprint. They use mostly coal fired power plants.  Now the rest of the world pics up China's slack with more energy efficient grids.  Next there will newly designed miners ( probably in the works now) that will dramatically reduce power usage while increasing computation abilities.  

A lot of the Chinese mining has been using unallocated hydropower for a long time. It allows for building infrastructure that can be used before it is needed for the purposes it is ultimately destined for.