Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

No probs!

We just need him to finish the race & not crash because that’ll provide meme material for years

 

OT: Palou's pitstops are fucking fast. Huge advantages there. He might run for the Lightning network next season...  

*edited out some eerorz

EDIT: Gotta run, start pre-painting some drywall. I hope i won't miss the end of the race.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gyrsur]

still Accumulation (Wyckoff).



EDIT: strange. just 4 views of the pic on imgur.  

EDIT2: now 23 views. maybe the views come from imgur itself because this time I did the upload on imgur and the post here nearly the same time.

EDIT3: Daily RSI = Oversold.



EDIT5:

Conclusion

The pioneering work of Richard D. Wyckoff in the early twentieth century was centered around the realization that stock price trends were driven primarily by institutional and other large operators who manipulate stock prices in their favor. Many professional traders today use Wyckoff's method, but his overall approach is still not widely-followed among retail traders, even though his educational efforts were intended to teach the public the “real rules of the game.” Nonetheless, his stock selection and investment methodology has stood the test of time, largely due to its thorough, systematized and logical structure for identifying high-probability and highly profitable trades. The discipline involved in this approach allows the investor to make informed trading decisions unclouded by emotion. Using Wyckoff's method, one can invest in stocks by capitalizing on the intentions of the large “smart money” interests, rather than being caught on the wrong side of the market. Attaining proficiency in Wyckoff analysis requires considerable practice, but is well worth the effort.

EDIT4: forgot it, lol. That proves I am no bot. 

[shahzadafzal]

Lambo in 2021 be like...

[JayJuanGee]

Damn gotta clean the f***ing pool.... weather getting better, pool looks like sh*t.... 

With BTC at 37, I let someone take care of it... at these prices I’ll do it myself.

Sunday’s

Yeah.. use some reverse psychology (or would we call it a guilt trip?) on king daddy.. that might help.

Nice! Expected to wake up into 28k and it's 36k.

That's the spirit, UnDerDoG81.. Don't let this wee little delay in UPpity get you down with too many anticipations of DOWNity that may well NOT happen.   

I just got back from seeing a friend. He's been in and out of Bitcoin since 2017 (lost money of course). Did the usual what about these shitcoins thing, which I dismissed as well as I could. Anyway he said he has been trying to withdraw as much equity from his home as he can for the last several weeks. Should get it in a week or 2. He then says he was going to buy bitcoin with it when it was in the 50s and now he's really glad that it fell because he's going to be able to buy much more.

He agreed with me that holding was the way, lessons from past sales learnt.

Oh gosh.  An example of what real people do.. gamble and leverage.. and hope for the best.. holy shit.. holy shit.

There are even guys in this here very thread that do not believe in DCA.

Do you even DCA, bro?

Hey I can recognize lump summing can surely pay off too.. accompanied by HODL..

But there is also this great concept of DCA that might seem as if it were ONLY for novices, but history has shown (even in bitcoinlandia) that DCA makes a lot of normies richie as fuck.. and surely it can supplement a lump summing approach in a lot of ways (I personally also recommend buying on dips too as something to add to the mix of consideration that helps from some panicking bullshit that can come from strict and inadequately monocle (not maniacal) approaches) but hey whatevers... do what's you gonna do (including ur lil friend/cousin).

[Hueristic]

As a gpu miner, I was forced to use win 10 although I prefer win 7. But there are bat files which turn off everything you want. The updates are a bit trickier but with some google hints I managed to make it appear that I turned them off completely. In case I want some software from MS Store, I temporatily allow the update services. In this way I think I have a full control of my Black box windows.

I know that whatever update I allow will not roll back my changes nor add other backdoors because I trust M$ to have my privacy as a top priority.

FTFY

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Nice end of day. Veekay placed 8th, no crash.
And number going up, yo 

This might have been the correction already.
Have a good #hodlsleep!

[JayJuanGee]

I just got back from seeing a friend. He's been in and out of Bitcoin since 2017 (lost money of course). Did the usual what about these shitcoins thing, which I dismissed as well as I could. Anyway he said he has been trying to withdraw as much equity from his home as he can for the last several weeks. Should get it in a week or 2. He then says he was going to buy bitcoin with it when it was in the 50s and now he's really glad that it fell because he's going to be able to buy much more.

He agreed with me that holding was the way, lessons from past sales learnt.

Foolish, I will say though that if you are in your 20's go for it lol... you can recover from losses in your early years and learn a lesson, not in your later years (50 +)

someone bought at $60k +, wonder how they are feeling right now

First of all, your reading comprehension skills seem to suck, Gatorelf - especially to believe that you are understanding the age of the bitcoin buyer because the word "50s" was used in the post... but hey, maybe that is just a minor point.

Second, I surely agree that age is a considerable factor for any investment including bitcoin.  You do seem to be assigning the presumption of way too much risk to bitcoin, or maybe you are assigning way too much need for liquidity to 50s or late 50s (in terms of age).  Each person is going to need to figure their bitcoin approach, and surely in recent years, I have been ongoingly asserting that any newly injected money into bitcoin should have a minimum of a 4 year time horizon before needing it... and so if the timeline is less than 4 years, differing factors will need to be considered in terms of lowering the amount put in and also attempts at timing the ins and the outs more strategically.... I will concede that having less than a 4 year timeline for any newly injected money into BTC does increase the gambling tendencies.. so greater cautions would be required.

Don't despair amid the inevitable setbacks that all investors face, especially during a crisis in the market. If the reasoning behind the investment was sound, stick with it, and it should eventually turn around.



https://www.investopedia.com/financial-edge/0511/the-top-17-investing-quotes-of-all-time.aspx

I like this one, and probably why I have so often been a fan of various investment strategies that have been attributed to Warren Buffet.

We're eating into the mempool, 1 sat transactions going through now.

I imagine that by the end of the day the mempool will be empty once again.
Heres hoping that Monday will start things off going in the right direction. Up!

We can ONLY hope.

Even Saylor cannot necessarily save us if the trend is against UPpity...

Help, help, help.

I hope that I am not sounding overly desperate.

I just got back from seeing a friend. He's been in and out of Bitcoin since 2017 (lost money of course). Did the usual what about these shitcoins thing, which I dismissed as well as I could. Anyway he said he has been trying to withdraw as much equity from his home as he can for the last several weeks. Should get it in a week or 2. He then says he was going to buy bitcoin with it when it was in the 50s and now he's really glad that it fell because he's going to be able to buy much more.

He agreed with me that holding was the way, lessons from past sales learnt.

Foolish, I will say though that if you are in your 20's go for it lol... you can recover from losses in your early years and learn a lesson, not in your later years (50 +)

someone bought at $60k +, wonder how they are feeling right now

My wife bought at $60k+ 
She's feeling fine, because i taught her not to look at the chart for quite a while after buying. Regardless, she's #hodling so she won't care shit about this correction some years later.
Half of my buys turned to "losses" afterwards, in the long run every buy turned into a gain. This will continue as long as i hodl and the absolute top was not in yet.
Sure, i feel regretful when Bitcoin price is falling, every time. But it's because i think Bitcoin is much more worth than that and it should only go up (which it does, in the long run).

I don't want you to give away too much OPsec OOM, but I would like to ask you a couple of questions.

1) Do you and your wife keep separate stashes (or separate accounting of your stashes)?

2) You probably have answered this question before, and so goes to show that I don't really care too much about either keeping track and that sometimes we might need a contemporary reiteration of the issue (even if it might contradict historical claims/facts).  Anywhooo...  I would anticipate that your average cost per BTC (maybe it is different for your wife?)  would be in the sub $7k range?  Sure maybe I am wrong.. but whatever.. So my question would be whether on average your ongoing cost per BTC is really moving up very significantly, even if from time to time you are buying BTC way over your average price per BTC?  Yeah I know that you have some ongoing projects that cause you to be regularly (maybe too regularly.. up to your discretion) dipping into your BTC stash.. which means selling considerably above your average BTC costs.. while likely reducing your overall BTC stash.   Same kind of thing with your wife.  I would imagine there is sometimes some BTC purchases that may well be considerably above her average cost per BTC but might not really raise the average price per BTC too greatly.. but maybe she has a bit fewer instances of cashening innenings.

3) Another aspect that your rendition of issues and considerations raises is the fact that sometimes any of us might be averaging our costs per BTC, and then in other instances we might be separately considering some of our individual BTC purchases, so I am not even suggesting that it would be a bad practice to engage in such variable ways of considering overall stash and individual purchases and also sometimes considering where to plug in certain BTC sales whether it gets accounted in terms of the overall stash or sometimes gets specifically matched up with some conceptualization, categorization or accounting of individual purchases.

Sure, lots of questions within the questions, and sometimes the raising of certain kinds of facts can both trigger areas of discussion and exploration and I surely don't mind sharing some of my thoughts and/or accounting on these kinds of topics either.  Sometimes also, I might not know the answers to some of my own practices, accounting or categorizations of buys, sells or other transactions (which are largely the same thing) unless some direct questions are asked and maybe I answer such direct questions or I might avoid such questions or spin them in some other direction.. depending on whether I want to disclose anything.. again.. no need to break any opsec matters or even get into to many specifics, even though sometimes we might be able to figure out some specifics merely from having these kinds of interactions (whether real information or made-up information  - aka disinformation).

[OutOfMemory]

^
Well, JJG, i keep two kind of holdings. One is for strict hodling, while two is on exchanges. Of course, two is much smaller, while one is on a cold storage since 2017. My wife also has a cold storage (managed by me) and she never cashed out so far. The thing is this: The majority of stash one was bought at below $7k prices. I always buy when i can afford it, money or bitcoin go straight to the exchange(s). If it exceeds a certain treshold, i send some to the cold wallet. I only cash out from the exchanges. Over time, and while BTC was rising in price, the bought amounts got smaller and smaller, that's what also kept the average price down more, but it (the average) surely is a little higher now.
In essence: Lower prices mean more corn to buy for me, keeps the average a little lower, too. I remember buying after the covid dip and shortly after the mindrust dip as well, both were below $7k iirc, bought way less subsequently, when prices were higher. The most recent buys were a bit higher priced, but i managed to grow the exchange stash (two) by trading a part of it with various shitcoins, which i like to do sometimes on short timeframes. With timing and humbleness, some 100-200% gains were possible with small parts of the small stash.
Main goal is to keep stash one growing. Wifey just kinda replaced her savings account for a hardware wallet and adds from time to time, without even knowing the price. She's only asking me a few times a year "how much bitcoin do i have, and how much is it worth?".

It's being late, i worked my ass off the last few days, i'm tired but i hope my explanations still make some sense  
Good night!

EDIT: If you remember my goal, "one btc per family member" - and i'm not even half way there, so my holdings aren't quite as big as many might think. OpSec, yeah, i won't give away details about my private data, at least the parts that would somebody allow to reveal my name, address or such, but i'm quite talkative about the (unimportant) thingies of my daily life.

[JayJuanGee]

Okay, okay... I'm reading through to the end now before replying to anything else.

Yeah  right, right...

 








 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cAPSLOCK]

3. It's different this time

The most notable aspect of this idea is we never really see a crypto "winter" in the cycle.  But instead we see a volatile climb upward.  Personally I would expect to see recurring pullbacks of diminishing magnitude. Of course things do not tend to be this perfect but we could see a 60%, then 50, then 40 series of pullbacks all making higher highs and lower lows.  Obviously, this is in the somewhat unprecedented "It's going up forever Laura" category.  It breaks a lot of fundamental rules about asset prices.
This would be a "It's different this time" that makes MUCH less sense than the supercycle.

... this would be a version of the logistic curve, or S-curve of technological adoption, theory for final adoptive phase. All other prior adoption waves will be dwarfed by comparison, in the same way as each adoptive wave has dwarfed the previous on linear scale charts, but the ultimate level plateaus near to full-adoption.

Super Cycle and S-curve are versions of the the same ultimate trajectory it looks like to me.

Indeed, and it is an idea I have been promoting for quite a while, not that I invented it, or first applied it to BTC, but even under the current circumstances I continue to see it as a non trivial possibility.

[vapourminer]

As a gpu miner, I was forced to use win 10 although I prefer win 7. But there are bat files which turn off everything you want. The updates are a bit trickier but with some google hints I managed to make it appear that I turned them off completely. In case I want some software from MS Store, I temporatily allow the update services. In this way I think I have a full control of my Black box windows.

I know that whatever update I allow will not roll back my changes nor add other backdoors because I trust M$ to have my privacy as a top priority.

FTFY

for a mining rig i dont care about MS win10 spyware. after all mining rigs should be dedicated to one thing - mining - so should have no personal info on it and MS can feast on that info for all i care.

my miners are on a separate network that has zero interaction with my other networks as i have one for the trusted house computers, one for the miners, and one for IoT (read: specialized, mostly useless tasks) that contain attack vectors galore with no security updates for 90% of the IoT crap out there. stuff. none of those networks can see the others.

my mining rig needs windows as some of the mining programs for my FPGAs require it. and it is easy to shut off windows update so no worries about new drivers breaking things and reboots that leave your gear  sitting there doing.. nothing at all useful.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

As a gpu miner, I was forced to use win 10 although I prefer win 7. But there are bat files which turn off everything you want. The updates are a bit trickier but with some google hints I managed to make it appear that I turned them off completely. In case I want some software from MS Store, I temporatily allow the update services. In this way I think I have a full control of my Black box windows.

I know that whatever update I allow will not roll back my changes nor add other backdoors because I trust M$ to have my privacy as a top priority.

FTFY

for a mining rig i dont care about MS win10 spyware. after all mining rigs should be dedicated to one thing - mining - so should have no personal info on it and MS can feast on that info for all i care.

my miners are on a separate network that has zero interaction with my other networks as i have one for the main computers, one for the miners, and one for IoT (read: attack vectors galore with no security updates for 90% of the IoT crap out there) stuff. none of those networks can see the others.

my mining rig needs windows as some of the mining programs for my FPGAs require it. and it is easy to shut off windows update so no worries about new drivers breaking things and reboots that leave your gear  sitting there doing.. nothing at all useful.

Correct (mostly, as security of the entire network really is its weakest point) but the context of the conversation was not geared to application specific uses.

[somac.]

hmm, either someone was waiting to send a ton of cheap transactions or someone didn't like the fact that the mempool would of been cleared.

[philipma1957]

hmm, either someone was waiting to send a ton of cheap transactions or someone didn't like the fact that the mempool would of been cleared.

I blame LoyceV



https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2848987.msg57120344#msg57120344



I did some cheap ones today. After I read his post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

HOPIUM (Wyckoff).

regarding my theory that crawler (whoever it is) are scanning this thread ongoing. after I posted the pic I had immediately 14 viewers of the pic on imgur. 

lurkers? /s

 Some technical types are running bots or using a service, to check if their names are mentioned or their posts are quoted, which will then notify them via PM or Telegram.

 Isn't that right LoyceV, sheenshane, suchmoon, fillippone et tu JayJuanGee?

Yeah, that's right, this post was notified me when was checking my Telegram today.
Check these threads for the BitcoinTalk Notififier BOT (merits, mentions, topics, etc)

• TryNinja's Telegram notifier bot --> currently used.
• giammangiato's Telegram notifier bot
• GreatArkansas's Telegram notifier bot

All of these are actively function.

 Awesome! Thanks for the info.  Merit when I get some

Awesome! Now you are ready for the next step:

#meritislife: how to be notified on a smartband of merits and mentions