Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[fr4nkthetank]

Tethershit coin is a threat to financial stability.  The whole thing is basically a scam, its not 1USDT=1USD, at all.  If it was then Outstanding Tether = same number in USD cash.  It is not.  
USD cash in tether is about 2.9%, add fiduciary deposits = 21% of the total.

Here is the breakdown with my analysis

3% actual cash + fiduciary deposits = 21% USD
12% is "secured loans"  ==  They bought big houses in the caribbean
10% precious metals/corporate loans == They bought Gold and stashed it
1.5% shitcoins ==  They bought shitcoins to pump and dump
5% TBills, reverse repo notes ==  could count as cash but interest bearing

AND roughly

50% Commercial Paper == +30 Billion == I will admit there is 1.1 Trillion outstanding in commercial paper, however that is close to 3% of all the outstanding commercial paper in the US.
Add USDC, maybe 5% of all commercial paper is held by usdt+usdc

If crypto market goes x5, stablecoins x5, then 25%...you get the picture.  Commercial paper is what enables you to have a paycheck at the end of the week by the way.
my2satoshis

[Dabs]

... with chains on his hands.

He always needs to be "El_Naturrel" with all organic products on his hands, like: leather.      

Off topic:

I'm tending towards the opposite, with stuff like plastic or metal, those things are a little more durable and will last longer. Granted, non-stainless metals may corrode or rust, but even then it will take a long time if they are thick enough. Sunken ships at the bottom of the ocean have been rusting for decades or centuries.

Wood will last and is strong enough, but untreated it will degrade faster than concrete or metal. Specifically for resistance training, I prefer free weights over stuff like giant rubber bands. Dumbells. Barbells. Cast iron plates. I mean, if you do Olympic style lifting, then bumper plates would be for you. They just won't last as long as metal plates. I'm still going to make a wood flat bench and wood squat stands, they'll be good enough for several years.

[Richy_T]

Y’all forget about your 200-week MA or daily or monthly MAs

Next time use COVID graph for your trades

Cases or deaths? Could be inheritance spending.

[Richy_T]

New gadget 

While I appreciate the humor, I don't think I could be looking at that scumbag every time I went for a drive.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

... with chains on his hands.

He always needs to be "El_Naturrel" with all organic products on his hands, like: leather.      

Off topic:

I'm tending towards the opposite, with stuff like plastic or metal, those things are a little more durable and will last longer. Granted, non-stainless metals may corrode or rust, but even then it will take a long time if they are thick enough. Sunken ships at the bottom of the ocean have been rusting for decades or centuries.

Wood will last and is strong enough, but untreated it will degrade faster than concrete or metal. Specifically for resistance training, I prefer free weights over stuff like giant rubber bands. Dumbells. Barbells. Cast iron plates. I mean, if you do Olympic style lifting, then bumper plates would be for you. They just won't last as long as metal plates. I'm still going to make a wood flat bench and wood squat stands, they'll be good enough for several years.

I understand your point. But this is a philosophical nature debacle. Basically, we associate ourselves with degradable things that we are in the grasps of understanding and connecting with them. Basically if we associate ourselves with metal. That is unnatural with us, thus it will be harder to relate on an energetic level. So... I'm more inclined to think that a more gentleman way is the leather way not the metal way. Because you would need to be a true yoggie shaman master to be able to tune into the nature of metal. And besides the fact that would make you 'energetically rigid', it would also make you slow and fixated in paths and ideas.

[shahzadafzal]

Wow these crazy “future human” Robots from Boston Dynamics got some software update.



But can they mine bitcoins?

https://twitter.com/techamazing/status/1427656547006562310?s=21

[vapourminer]

Wow these crazy “future human” Robots from Boston Dynamics got some software update.



But can they mine bitcoins?

https://twitter.com/techamazing/status/1427656547006562310?s=21

no those things will force US to mine for THEM

i for one welcome our new robotic overlords

[xhomerx10]

Wow these crazy “future human” Robots from Boston Dynamics got some software update.



But can they mine bitcoins?

https://twitter.com/techamazing/status/1427656547006562310?s=21

no those things will force US to mine for THEM

i for one welcome our new robotic overlords

 I'm not sure they're worth that much.  I mean you can see the same think at a strip club for an over-priced beer and they're generally better-looking than those robots.

[JayJuanGee]

New gadget  

Never trust a Dudd... with chains on his hands.

He always needs to be "El_Naturrel" with all organic products on his hands, like: leather.      

Just don't trust him!!!

       

Yeah... right..  

We should trust save the rf.. because he uses emphasis in his postenings.

https://twitter.com/BTC_Archive/status/1428308557015965700

Looks more like a wish than some kind of BTC price dynamic that could actually play out.

I would not put more than 3% preparation into a scenario that has only about 3% chance of happening.

By the way, I could foresee some kind of scenario of getting stuck at $288k after a 30% to 50% (or more) BTC price correction.. in other words, BTC would likely need to go into some kind of a $420k to $600k and then correct back down to $288k before being even close to any kind of feasible speculation of getting stuck in that kind of a $288k price area..

It just ceases to amaze me how fantasy thinking perpetuates so many people into imagining that bitcoin is all of a sudden going to become "stable" .. are people fucking retarded?  or just do not have any clue about the immaturity of this asset class?  Immature asset classes do not just stabilize without either passage of time or significant and meaningful adoption that causes them to stabilize because they become BIG.. like not just baby BIG.. but BIG in a kind of meaningful sense.. .. I used to contemplate that maybe the size of gold's market cap would be BIG, but that is ONLY 10x from here.. so seems getting 10x or even 100x of gold might start to cause some rationale for the idea that bitcoin is starting to get sufficiently BIG to kind of start to stabilize..

... just admit it, you're fiat bull! ... and worse than that you have tasted the freedom of bitcoin and gone back to the debt-slavery chains of your fiat masters, how depraved is that?

Yes, I'm a USD bull, probably till the end-2022 or so. I believe we're in a total bubble right now (real estate, stocks, etc.), and Fed is going to be forced to pop this bubble soon.

Some do drink the mindrust cool-aid some don’t

I just have my side to be on…..

Not much more to say only to suggest picking the right side (the one where you have BTC in possession)

I don't know mate. Mindrust sold at an awful price and in panic, while I sold at my target (and it was $1 trillion+ market cap for BTC).

Just to now…. Yeah mindrust was at 3800 ish I think, where did you sold?

But apart of the selling, you mentioned a low 20 price to buy back in if I remember not ?

So just what’s gonna be your play or just what are you gonna do?

I sold at about $55k. To be exact, it was the day when Ethereum reached over $4k. Bitcoin at $1T marketcap, Ethereum over $4k, all friends & neighbors into crypto, Tether printing billions in hours, and even my portfolio at an unimaginable value. It seemed unreal so I made my decision.

About buying back, I've said it before a few times and will say it again, as soon as 200-week moving average is touched:

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/

I think this is a very sensible approach.  The risk you are taking is simple to see, and easy to hedge.  You are discounting the black swan.  That the 200DMA will be higher than your sell point when it touches would be one way to express it.  The hedge is just to leave a portion in BTC.  But i am talking about what I would do rather than what you want.

Raja is referring to the 200 week moving average .. not the 200 day moving average.. which is quite a BIG ass difference from the 200 day moving average and a BIG ass gamble in terms of what kind of price correction is needed to get down to the 200 week moving average... current BTC prices are right around the 200 day moving average, but the 200 week moving average is currently at about $15k. and moving up.. but not really at a fast pace.. and surely does depend on BTC price too for it to move up (as a quite lagging indicator because it averages out the BTC price for each of the weeks for the past 4 years)..

Furthermore, if we can actually believe someone who is actually supposedly experienced in bitcoin would be so dumb, Raja seems to be committing one of the BIGGEST errors that could cause any coiner to become a no coiner... and that is failure/refusal to prepare for either (or both) BTC price directions, even if he is committed in his belief (assuming again that he is actually being genuine in his representations).

The ONLY thing that might be saving him somewhat, is that he does not seem to be using leverage... but even without leverage, there could be some prudence in selling a reasonable portion of your bitcoin out of such a bet, maybe even 50% or more. and sure I have difficulties relating to those higher numbers, and of course, people are going to come to differing conclusions.. including what many of us consider a kind of cardinal sin in going 100% into fiat (meaning getting completely out of bitcoin) (I also am not too thrilled about anyone 100% in bitcoin either, given our current fiat denominated world and other kinds of ways to hold value.. in which it seems to me that a decent amount of additional power can come from having and maintaining options. that means more than one option.. and I am not referring to any kind of need to have/maintain shitcoins, here)...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Paashaas]

Wells Fargo launches passive Bitcoin fund for wealthy clients.

https://www.coindesk.com/wells-fargo-nydig-passive-bitcoin-fund

[JayJuanGee]

Tethershit coin is a threat to financial stability.  The whole thing is basically a scam, its not 1USDT=1USD, at all.  If it was then Outstanding Tether = same number in USD cash.  It is not.  
USD cash in tether is about 2.9%, add fiduciary deposits = 21% of the total.

Here is the breakdown with my analysis

3% actual cash + fiduciary deposits = 21% USD
12% is "secured loans"  ==  They bought big houses in the caribbean
10% precious metals/corporate loans == They bought Gold and stashed it
1.5% shitcoins ==  They bought shitcoins to pump and dump
5% TBills, reverse repo notes ==  could count as cash but interest bearing

AND roughly

50% Commercial Paper == +30 Billion == I will admit there is 1.1 Trillion outstanding in commercial paper, however that is close to 3% of all the outstanding commercial paper in the US.
Add USDC, maybe 5% of all commercial paper is held by usdt+usdc

If crypto market goes x5, stablecoins x5, then 25%...you get the picture.  Commercial paper is what enables you to have a paycheck at the end of the week by the way.
my2satoshis

Does not look like a scam to me.  They have backing, and they have been attacked for years, including likely USA complicitness when they had $800 million or something like that taken from them when it was "in dollars" and supposed to be held by a supposedly legitimate institution. that fucked them over and then the USA government was opportunistic to blame tether for some bullshit stuff that they likely enabled.. rather than attempting to get the $800 million back to Tether (the proper owners of dat supposedly legitimate backing kind of value).. Tether has done pretty damned good over the past 6 years or so.. given how much they had been working outside of the acceptable systems that would have shut them the fuck down, if they could have done so without causing their own backlash - further going underground or going out of jurisdiction - issues.

In other words, you are repeating variations of dumb-ass talking points that we have been hearing since about 2014 whining about tether being a scam that is way less true than you are making it out to be and ultimately they are likely way more of an ally to the goals of many persons who support bitcoin rather than their lame-ass stable coin imitators that try to appear more legitimate.. blah blah blah.

I should be rolling my eyes at the seeming intensity of your nonsense assertions, fr4nkthetank... not the first time either that you have come out with various baloney.. are you even a coiner?  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Wow these crazy “future human” Robots from Boston Dynamics got some software update.



But can they mine bitcoins?

https://twitter.com/techamazing/status/1427656547006562310?s=21

Who knew "Cirque du Soleil" would be first to fall to our robotic overlords?

[Richy_T]

Does not look like a scam to me.  They have backing, and they have been attacked for years, including likely USA complicitness when they had $800 million or something like that taken from them when it was "in dollars" and supposed to be held by a supposedly legitimate institution. that fucked them over and then the USA government was opportunistic to blame tether for some bullshit stuff that they likely enabled.. rather than attempting to get the $800 million back to Tether (the proper owners of dat supposedly legitimate backing kind of value).. Tether has done pretty damned good over the past 6 years or so.. given how much they had been working outside of the acceptable systems that would have shut them the fuck down, if they could have done so without causing their own backlash - further going underground or going out of jurisdiction - issues.

In other words, you are repeating variations of dumb-ass talking points that we have been hearing since about 2014 whining about tether being a scam that is way less true than you are making it out to be and ultimately they are likely way more of an ally to the goals of many persons who support bitcoin rather than their lame-ass stable coin imitators that try to appear more legitimate.. blah blah blah.

I should be rolling my eyes at the seeming intensity of your nonsense assertions, fr4nkthetank... not the first time either that you have come out with various baloney.. are you even a coiner?  

Hah, I remember screeds like this shortly before MTGOX went pop. Hopfully this is similarly portentous. It's overdue.

Also ironic that someone so apparently against shitcoins would white knight for the shittiest of shitcoins (possibly excepting XRP), USDT.

[El duderino_]

New gadget 

While I appreciate the humor, I don't think I could be looking at that scumbag every time I went for a drive.

If there is humor that I can appreciate…. Then I’m glad to have it…. World is dark enough and serious and whatever, so a good laugh is always appreciated in my bubble of life

[JohnBitCo]

Where we are heading now    Bitcoin dominance decreasing ?

[cAPSLOCK]

For sure, he must be stealing your "original" ideas.  He's probably reading the WO to get your intricate details...   


Hi Willy......  or do you prefer Mr. Woo?

It sounds almost like saying Mr. Wwwwwwwwweeeeeeeeeee......


 

I am just saying "great minds think alike".  I think he might be right... and have been saying it for over a year.  Never claimed to be the originator of the idea, but i did come to the conclusion fairly independently.  Never been a Dan Held acolyte, but I think he was early on with all the "supercycle" stuff.

I think Willy's take is a little more nuanced.  It does not completely throw out the 4 year cycle thing, but more sort of dampens it.  I personally think the halvings will still have some impact, but I believe the early roller coaster days are a thing of the past to *some* extent.  But there is even nuance there.  I could say insterad of 80-90% pullbacks we could see 50-60, and then less etc.  And instead of one big parabola and one big crash we could see gentler more frequent waves.  As well as the possibility of a really crazy upward push thrown in...  I think the quadrennial bitcoin cycle will become less and less of a "thing' as adoption increases.  This makes a lot of sense because of both the lessened actual value of the next halvings (50->25 is a way bigger drop in nominal terms than 6.25->3.125) as well as the larger field of players will also create more liquidity and lead to less SHOCKS.

My thesis in bullet points:

• Halving impact is reducing
• Magnitude of waves will reduce*
• Frequency of waves will increase
• *Possible one more really big UP wave (and possibly the mother of all of them)

[Toxic2040]

the morning wall report

dyor

1h
testing upward boundary of a local downward channel



4h



D
local bottoming congruency observed

stronghands