Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[shahzadafzal]

Fifty Thousands…………we welcome you back!!!

"If you love someone, set them free. If they come back, they’re yours; if they don’t, they never were."

Last time we saw you was on 14 May 2021, that was exactly 100 days ago.

and today on 23rd Aug 2021 on day 101 here we meet again.

Tell me any more romantic story than this?

[Copetech]

Explanation

Just thought it worth seeing again...

[BobLawblaw]

$50k Penis.

[Toxic2040]

congruency between long and medium fibs can show interesting dynamics around a s/r zone at times...imho

dyor

stronghands

[xhomerx10]

$50k

OK

 So it's still a great day even though the Jays lost!  Whoo!

Charlie Montoyo is an idiot. Got to see Miguel Cabrera's 500th though.

Still a good day.

 Nice!  Cabrera makes it look easy. He's a big man.

[JayJuanGee]

dyor


4h


D

stronghands

Thanks for your confession, Toxicmoxic.

You are forgiven.

You know that when I proposed the poll to infofront $30k support had not yet been broken, but within the day by the time infofront posted the poll, $30k had been broken, so $25k did start to feel pretty damned close to where we were at and odds in that direction started to feel quit strong..

 I consider myself to have only been about 51/49 in favor of $50k - largely because I considered that we were still likely in a bull market.. yet I also felt that the bull market would not have even been negated with a break below $25k or even a break as far down as $20k.. depending on how long the BTC price were to stay down there, too...

So, surely $50k before $25k was a bit of a long shot..and really remained a long shot until we broke above $38k-ish ... furthermore, it seem to me that many of the current poll votes for $50k ONLY came in recent times.. and in the beginning several weeks that the poll was up.. seems that the votes were quite a bit evenly split between $50k and $25k.. .

[Richy_T]

[d_eddie]

Looks like arsche to me.

I only see mainstream adoption ….

Ah! Perhaps I see it too!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Hueristic]

I vote JJG has lost his poll privileges after this fiasco!

[cAPSLOCK]

This really is the tipping point...  If we do not get rejected here the time spent between 50-60 will be less than 40-50 was.

So, you seem to be thinking that breaking above $50k is going to bring us into a kind of no man's zone.. but then once we get to $60, then do we get to $65k easily?  

How far is the lack of resistance in your opinion.. if you might be asserting that? or maybe you are only saying $50 to $60k is no man zone.. but then it would bring us so damned close to $65k that in my thinking it would be hard to stop at $60k once we were to get there...

In other words, where do we stop?


PS......Within $30 of $50k now... fuck the poll....

Well.  I think we will see resistance in this decade, but I believe the gas pedal is getting mushed pretty good.   I think we have these ranges to contend with:



But I think we will spend less time in the 5-s than we did in the 40s range.

[ImThour]

I wish everyone a happy $50k day once again after 3 months.

Always believe, millions of people are not stupid.

[slaman29]

I wish everyone a happy $50k day once again after 3 months.

Ah, you were faster than me:) Happy $50k day everybody. It took us an entire quarter but it's happened. I actually thought we were going to be going down back to 40k after yesterday failed but I'm so glad to be proven wrong. Monday is now good to look forward to for the fifth week in a row.

[OROBTC]

...

How much of your portfolio should you put into BTC?  

NICE article here on that very subject:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-much-portfolio-allocate-bitcoin

(TL;DR, it depends)


Me?  For a long time (say post 2017, in 2017 I cashed out as well, from 2018 - 2020 I bought), I aimed for +/- 1% of my net in BTC (none in alts).  As BTC rose, I would on occasion re-balance my portfolio by selling (or trading BTC for gold).  Typically during 2020 (and especially 2021) the BULL MARKET ran away from me so fast that it was hard to balance it back down to 1%.  But, that's OK, good, in a bull market.  Right now I am roughly 1.5%.

DO keep in mind that even my HODLing 1% (subject to irregular re-balancing) in the past year and a half or so has yielded me well over 1% in my whole portfolio.  I will have to do the numbers, but even just a HODLing at 1% has probably grown my portfolio perhaps 4% - 5%, not bad considering I have been trying to keep BTC at 1%...


Edit: Big bull markets make everyone look smart...

[Richy_T]

1% seems very low, especially for having been in for 4 years. I would say that even 5% would only really be for someone who doesn't really grok Bitcoin and is just getting going. (If you're just getting started and don't have much extra to invest, I could see lower numbers but then you probably don't have much in the way of other investments either).

Still, I always advocate that people should be comfortable with the investments they're making so I'm not going to call you wrong.

[Poker Player]

...

How much of your portfolio should you put into BTC?  

NICE article here on that very subject:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-much-portfolio-allocate-bitcoin

(TL;DR, it depends)


Me?  For a long time (say post 2017, in 2017 I cashed out as well, from 2018 - 2020 I bought), I aimed for +/- 1% of my net in BTC (none in alts).  As BTC rose, I would on occasion re-balance my portfolio by selling (or trading BTC for gold).  Typically during 2020 (and especially 2021) the BULL MARKET ran away from me so fast that it was hard to balance it back down to 1%.  But, that's OK, good, in a bull market.  Right now I am roughly 1.5%.

DO keep in mind that even my HODLing 1% (subject to irregular re-balancing) in the past year and a half or so has yielded me well over 1% in my whole portfolio.  I will have to do the numbers, but even just a HODLing at 1% has probably grown my portfolio perhaps 4% - 5%, not bad considering I have been trying to keep BTC at 1%...


Edit: Big bull markets make everyone look smart...

Seriously, man?

That an investor who does not know much about Bitcoin, allocates only 1% of his portfolio I can understand, but that you, who have been on the forum since 2014, do it, makes me think that you have not learned much.

I agree with one thing the article says: "The answer to this question varies based on different circumstances in people’s lives."

But 1% definitely seems very low to me.

Still, I always advocate that people should be comfortable with the investments they're making so I'm not going to call you wrong.

But he's been on the forum since 2014, that's what doesn't add up for me.

[Richy_T]

But he's been on the forum since 2014, that's what doesn't add up for me.

True. Quite a lot of posts too. If the rest of his portfolio was just simply huge... but then why bother rebalancing?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

This really is the tipping point...  If we do not get rejected here the time spent between 50-60 will be less than 40-50 was.

So, you seem to be thinking that breaking above $50k is going to bring us into a kind of no man's zone.. but then once we get to $60, then do we get to $65k easily?  

How far is the lack of resistance in your opinion.. if you might be asserting that? or maybe you are only saying $50 to $60k is no man zone.. but then it would bring us so damned close to $65k that in my thinking it would be hard to stop at $60k once we were to get there...

In other words, where do we stop?


PS......Within $30 of $50k now... fuck the poll....

Well.  I think we will see resistance in this decade, but I believe the gas pedal is getting mushed pretty good.   I think we have these ranges to contend with:



But I think we will spend less time in the 5-s than we did in the 40s range.

You could be correct regarding some sticking points around $60k (and of course, based on where we are at, how we got here, including our having had spent around two months-ish (perhaps even up to three months for the psychology of some peeps), I am personally a bit more sympathetic with the idea of a possible sticking point in the mid $50ks)  - but it does also seem that we cannot even presume that sticking points would occur at both $55k and $60k - instead it might be more logical that it is either one or another.. not both.

Think about it this way.. We have pretty much inched our way all the fuck up to $50k, and we only had one kind of mediocre correction between $42,600 and $37,100.. hardly even enough to write home about even though it did cause some whining about our only being in a dead cat bounce.. blah blah blah..

So, sure I don't give too many shits if king daddy goes straight into punishment mode and we largely whiz up to $80k-ish within 4-8 weeks and with hardly any resting periods, but I still would be questioning the solidness of buying support to be able to keep up between $55k and $80k, in the event that we do not experience some kind of decent BTC price correction before getting to $55k - whether that happens soon or continues to take advantage of what seems to be ongoing UPpity pressures for a few more thousands of UPpity movement.

So my thinking is that if there is no correction until we get past $55k, then it makes more sense to get a correction somewhere in the upper $50ks..

I have also learned to try NOT to get too surprised by anything, even while I am ongoingly "I told you"ing folks about where we are at.. and so many of them remain nocoiners.. so I just ongoingly wonder and wonder and wonder when they are going to get in.. are they waiting for $1 million coins or what? 

A kind of side story:  yesterday, one of my uncles mentioned something about since I have bitcoin that I am going to be able to do whatever I want when bitcoin reaches $1 million, and I asked why the hell would I personally need $1 million per coin.. I said for rounding off purposes, we could just figure that my costs per BTC are around $1k, and I am wondering if he could even imagine why someone in my position would need any more BTC price appreciation in order to be happy.. why do I give any shits if BTC reaches a million or not?  Sure, I hope BTC does not go back below $20k.. and I am even doubting the possibility of that ever happening again, so if we have spot price profits that ends up being around 50x in profits for me and a kind of guaranteed ongoing profits of 20x, then why would I need more than that.... I said that is already amazing profits, and I am not even saying that bitcoin is not going to $1 million.. I said that there still is no other investment that is as good as bitcoin.. even given current market conditions

I said sure, maybe if I buy a helicopter, then my problems could be solved because so many people get rich and they buy helicopters and then they crash their helicopters when they had a lot going for them. .Maybe it is not a good idea to buy a helicopter, then.  I had some other frustrations talking with seemingly committed no coiners.. and just seems crazy.. that so many of the no coiners still do not want to budge... when?  when?  when?  I don't know.. they may well wait until we get to FOMO position.. and we are not there, yet.. even though they consider that we are already in FOMO status.. and we are quite likely not.. not yet.