Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle.

"Fuck your mother if you want fuck."  

Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart.

[1715429298]

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[1715429298]

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[cAPSLOCK]

I didn't ask you to spoon feed me, as I said this essay agrees with my understanding of things. I have used my brain and knew a majority of what was said there-in before I read it. I asked very specific questions and you dodged them completely and then proceeded to blather on with a series of straw men & insults, so yea, answer seems to have been given by your refusal to answer and Fuck You very much!

And NO, I do not blame Covid for my father's death. I thought I was clear about that, HE NEVER HAD IT! I blame the stupid reactions, fear mongering, and economic shutdown imposed upon us by brainless diptwats like yourself who blindly scream trust the science to support destructive societal changes that have absolutely NOTHING to do with Science! So I guess it would be much more sensible to say I Blame You for my father's death rather than C19. And NO I am NOT an "Antivaxxer" I am up to date on my mumps, measles & rubella as well as tetanus and a couple others. I never had to get the chicken pox vaccine because I had already gotten chicken pox as a kid... Just Like I have Already Gotten & FULLY RECOVERED from Covid. So why subject myself to additional risk (as small as it may be) when I already have immunity that has proven to be far more effective than the vaccine? And NO my wife does NOT have an autoimmune disease, and as I said she has already had and recovered from Covid as well so she "most probably" WON'T die from Covid you dumb fuck! (Reading comprehension troubles eh? Explains a lot!) Yes I made my decision as to what gave me the best odds of staying alive. Granted part of my decision was determined by the fact that everyone recommending the vaccine was using provable lies for support and refusing to account for my particular circumstances, having already achieved immunity and genetic factors. By the way, my Dr. completely agrees with my decision but warns that it may end up coming down to a matter of convenience as opposed to best personal health practices.
So I don't know where you got your straw man about a cow breeder as a health advisor. But since I do all my own auto repair, and also do far more daily to maintain my oral heigene than anyone else and since I also do my own plumbing work... Why don't you just Fuck Right Off if you're not going to answer the questions I posed?

What percentage of Covid-19 infections do YOU believe lead to hospitalization? What percentage by your understanding leads to death? How many have died since March 2020 due to increased addiction, mental illness, and suicide brought on by isolation, fear, and economic catastrophe? How many have died due to abject failure in the medical industry to maintain sensible treatment plans for NON-COVID based healthcare treatment?  Specifically, what in this essay can you factually disagree with?

So far the person arguing with you is using straw men and personal attacks, and I predict this will continue.  I could be wrong, but I have a feeling you are casting pearls, so to speak.

In the last year and a half covid dashboards for one of the US largest hospital systems have been my direct responsibility, so I know this data very intimately.  Particularly for a non-clinical person.  I am not going to go to the trouble of digging up real data right now because, first of all, it is not actually my property to share, and secondly you will most likely believe me since the ACTUAL DATA *STRONGLY* supports your conclusions.  (Not saying you are biased, but you know what i mean).

But when you filter down the covid mortality funnel you see very clear facts.

+The OVERWHELMING majority of covid cases do NOT go to the hospital.  This is the only data I do not have access to actual numbers for because that is not really possible in my data.  Our data starts at the hospital encounter.  But we DO know that most people fall into the category in which includes people who get Covid, and do not even know it, know it but are not tested, get a test but do not get further medical care. Or go to their PCP or urgent care and are sent home to isolate and get through it.  I have to guess here, but it is an educated guess that this number is north of 90% of cases.

+Of the cases who present to the ED or Covid units, the OVERWHELMING majority of THEM are sent home to isolate and recover.  This I happen to KNOW is more than 90% of these people.  So we are ALREADY somewhere in the vicinity of 99% if my first guess is correct, and even if I am off by a HUGE amount we are still at worst around 93%  It is very unusual for those patients to be admitted later, but it can happen.

+Of the cases that are ADMITTED to the Covid unit the OVERWHELMING majority of those are kept for between 2 days and 3 weeks and are sent home after their recovery.  Most of the time they would probably have been OK at home... but some really need assistance keeping their O2 up and better safe than sorry.

+Only a very small percentage of THOSE cases ever make it to the ICU. At the worst this was around 20%  (Remember, this is 20% of 10% of 10% at the very most. so ~.2%?)

+In the early days of covid the next thing you DO NOT want to have happen is to be intubated.  Unfortunately the numbers stop being so cheery at this point.  i do not want to be morbid, but if you find yourself in an ICU with a tube down your airway, you need to whatever housekeeping of the soul you think is important.  But even then it was not ALL ICU patients and some did recover... but in this group many died.  However, as therapies, and treatments get better we are no longer intubating nearly as many...  But that is a point you do NOT want to get to as it has bad outcomes.

So, yeah...  LOTS of people have died.  It is tragic.  And it has been a SERIOUS public health problem because it has been a big load on the medical system.  Sadly more cases like your father exist than did before covid.  By a wide margin.  And the 3rd order effects we cannot account for are not anywhere close to over.  We may end up seeing a war because of it.  People who act like it's all a big "fake news" conspiracy are very very wrong.  Not that it may neot actually BE a conspiracy.  But it is most CERTAINLY killing folks.

I also share what I read as your general position on the vaccine.  I have a serious allergy that can kill me (anaphylaxis), and you better believe I asked my doc before I got the vaccine, which I did do.  Because I think at my age the risk of the vaccine is lower than that of the disease.

But I can't stand the "trust the science" people who think folks thinking critically about the virus and vaccine are stupid. They are just as bad as those who believe the virus is not even real.
 

[cAPSLOCK]

So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle.

"Fuck your mother if you want fuck."  

Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart.

I am very sad not to see what the "Fuck Vegetables" actually ARE.

I mean we can assume carrots and zucchini and cucumbers?  But what else could the be? Very wonder.  Such interesting.

[HI-TEC99]

So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle.

"Fuck your mother if you want fuck."  

Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart.

I am very sad not to see what the "Fuck Vegetables" actually ARE.

I mean we can assume carrots and zucchini and cucumbers?  But what else could the be? Very wonder.  Such interesting.

Maybe cabbage

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Guys, guys, you all mean well and all but he  [referring to the dude] is a grown man, he can take care  of himself, and he
will get all the necessary advice on how to taket care of himself from the doctors.

For sure, if you are operating from absolute ignorance, you better start out by following whatever the doctor says until you start to get some understandings of whatever conditions that they have diagnosed you to have.

Furthermore, one of the best ways to get more bang for the buck from whatever doctor(s) that you have is to learn about your condition, including interacting with other people who may have various ideas and experiences with that condition or like conditions.  We have a lot of guys here who have varying conditions, and likely the older guys have experienced some health issues that they learn better techniques that are not as helpful to them after their condition has already happened as compared to what it may have been to attempt to prevent such conditions from happening in the first place.. and I am not even saying that all conditions are preventable because we do have combinations of genetics, lifestyle and even injuries that might have taken place (whether preventable or not).. and sometimes there might ONLY be so much that any of us can do in order to help our bodies to help themselves, and sometimes there can also be degenerative components that are more challenging in terms of attempting got figure out and adequately tailor lifestyle tradeoffs.

From 42K to 48K or from 42K to 30K ?

Aren't you a pessimist?

By the way, why describe the range with $12k to the downside and$6k to the upside as if they were potentially comparable periods, especially when we are already ranging a wee bit in a correction zone of around $9.5k down from our $53k local top of three weeks ago.  You are quite the pessimist including that our having had gotten above $46k around 6 weeks ago had pretty much established that our $28,600 bottom was in, so there would have to be some decently extra-ordinary conditions (which do not seem to be present absent someone trying to exaggerate conditions that do not objectively exist) that would contribute to our actually even getting back into sub $35k prices.

You can consider matters however, you like, but surely coming off as a wee bit overly pessimistic from my consideration of where we are at in measurement to where we have been and where we are likely to go.

From 42K to 48K or from 42K to 30K ?

70k by Jan 1

Hahahahahaha

I like you persistence, even though $70k is a non-number at this point because it is in the midst of noman's zone.

In udder words, u need to think ur lil selfie a weeeeeeeeee bit MOAR BIGGEDLY....  #Nohomo


 

From 42K to 48K or from 42K to 30K ?

70k by Jan 1

On the way down from $140-160K?  

That's more like it! Slowly reaching a bottom around $47-$50k where it will drift for a couple years before starting it's big climb towards 750k-1M. (This is my financial plan for leaving my sexy young wife in good standing after all my poor life choices recognize my genetic predisposition to death)

Expecting lows below $60k might be a bit much.. but surely the feasibility of reasonable lows do depend upon how far the highs might end up going, so if the highs are sub-$200k-ish, then surely sub $50k lows is more than reasonable..

In other words, seems a wee bit difficult to predict the extent of the next leg down before seeing how far up and how fast it goes and if it takes all the way until 3rd quarter 2022 to get there, then that would be different conditions from having the whole UPpity and DOWNity play out before this calendar year plays out.

[cAPSLOCK]

So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle.

"Fuck your mother if you want fuck."  

Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart.

I am very sad not to see what the "Fuck Vegetables" actually ARE.

I mean we can assume carrots and zucchini and cucumbers?  But what else could the be? Very wonder.  Such interesting.

Maybe cabbage

I don't see why the cabbage calls it a "shrimp" though.  Damn.  Cold.

[BobLawblaw]

If I am reading you right there are three possible scenarios.
1.  The value you lost in that channel was exactly gained in another one (or ones) that is still open.  *unless*---
2.  You spent the amount you are now "missing". (In this case the value stops in someone ELSE's channel)
3.  You channel partner broadcast an incorrect channel state and ripped you off.

Here's the close transaction from LOOP.

https://mempool.space/tx/8c5f9bc17d9b81b64f9e81547c172fb9ba4fe9ecd98bd740023fc90ede7f2cc3

I got ‎0.00190205 back.

No idea what happened to the other ‎0.16586666.

EDIT: Hmm. Just did all the math for the values on my node, and the accounting all adds up - after incurred fees - so I have to think that the liquidity is wrapped up in other channels that I'm linked to, pointing towards your Case 1 ?

Kinda fucks with my flow, cuz now I need to add more coin to establish another wumbo with LOOP, or close some existing channels, which I don't want to do. I suppose I could throw another coin onto the node, but kinda already starting to feel a bit uncomfortable with not understanding what is going on with the piddly 3 BTC I'm playing with.

[serveria.com]

So what ever happened to that asshole Jihan Wu? Haven't heard anything of him since the whole BCash launch debacle.

"Fuck your mother if you want fuck."  

Last I heard was that he was working at the salad counter in a Beijing Walmart.

I am very sad not to see what the "Fuck Vegetables" actually ARE.

I mean we can assume carrots and zucchini and cucumbers?  But what else could the be? Very wonder.  Such interesting.

Maybe cabbage

Then when you're done with veggies, move on to poultry... 

[fillippone]

On no!
I have been beaten by an hamster, again!


https://twitter.com/rainmaker1973/status/1442116928580030469?s=21

[kellrobinson]

The red curve on the big chart shows bitcoin's centered 100 week geometric mean.  A transform revealed an apparent sine pattern in the geomean, seen in the upper corner chart.  The yellow sine wave is my best fit.
The lower corner chart converts back into price domain and extrapolates the sine wave.  Indication:  we might have a couple of years of bearish action, but not a dire crypto winter.

I hate that this chart makes so much sense.  I mean... it's bullish in the big picture... but 2 years of consolidating here?  *sigh*.

Yeah, "consolidation" is a good word for it.  Sideways to slightly bearish.   I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection coming true, but if it does come true, it would be great for trading.  There will be the usual volatility to trade, but no big trend to lose out on if you happen to be out of the market, or get your face ripped off because you have too much leverage.
Also, ideal for the conservative-minded who likes to patiently stack sats.

Been there, done that.

[JayJuanGee]

Explanation

Another correction again? 

Your proclamation of "correction" comes off as "wishful thinking" rather than really attempting to observe what is actually going on with our king savior... aka  daddy .. aka honey b... and other funzie not-mentioned titles to be used with adequate attempts at reverence.

⢸⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⠉⡷⡄⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
⢸⠀Are you winning, son?⡇⠢⣀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⡇⠀⠀⠈⠑⢦⡀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀
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⢸⠀⠀⠀⠀⢸⠀⠀⠀⠁⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠀⠷

Label me as "puzzled," if you must.

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Cryptotourist]

Hey, you’ve been promising to GFTO for three years in a row, can you do that already?
Don’t forget your buddies now. Especially the legendary one(s).

Besides, pandemic will come to an end soon so it will not be necessary anyway.

Hopefully this will be the case, but not thanks to you - or similar thinking mindsets.
Then again, if vaccine passports roll out for ever, I’ll be here to rub it in your fucking face forever.

So, another lie?

Yes.

In the UK, over 90% of population have had at least one shot already.

Then tell me why the Brits did not travel anywhere this year.

Other countries to follow. So it's over.

Australia and New Zealand, would like to have a word with you…

Let go. You lost. You're the minority here, accept it.

OK Xerxes, whatever.

[PoolMinor]

Explanation

Anyone have the cliff's note version of the last 2000 pages?



What did I miss?


P.S.
Welcome back chart buddy


Edit:
PPS

Obvious wall says obvious price upswing.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Hahaha you totally retarded or what? Covid fucked up your unvaccinated brain completely? WO bros can confirm I've never begged BTC or FIAT money and I'm not affiliated with any group especially the cuntonian(s) whom I hate (too strong of a word perhaps as some of the posts were pretty funny). Have you mistaken me for someone else? 

Surely, Cryptotourist has "issues." (if we are trying to be nice about it..? hahahahaha). I believe that at one point (maybe a year ago-ish... actually I am thinking more than 2 years ago..? my how time flies in these here parts, fuck...) he even accused me of being part of that group.... or somehow affiliated blah blah blah.

Not a good poet
Oh Well, at least I know it.
But Hey! It's Sunday.

Bitcoin will go up
Or maybe it will go down
She certainly won't.

#Haiku (don't expect it to be a habit)

I would have preferred your last sentence to be something about sideways or indecisiveness between up and down.. but whatever. artists (or artist wannabes) have their own peculiar takes.

WO bros can confirm I've never begged BTC or FIAT money and I'm not affiliated with any group especially the cuntonian(s) whom I hate (too strong of a word perhaps as some of the posts were pretty funny).

Not with the serveria.com account buddy. Or is it so difficult to have many?
WO’s can’t confirm shit, and neither can I. This is merely a speculative theory of mine.

Heard some variation of that before.

 

[Cryptotourist]

~ he even accused me of being part of that group.... or somehow affiliated blah blah blah.

I don’t think so Jay. My little black book says otherwise.
Always a pleasure to talk to you, and witness the progress you’ve made in your algos.

Heard some variation of that before.

I’ve got more where that came from. Conspiracy theories with AI’s, whales and remora’s - right here, right now.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin spent trolling bulls 3 years by constantly creating fakeouts. Im not convinced the bull phase is over until ATH. It could trick people into buying again the 200 MA breakout only to crash again. The fundamentals aren't also fantastic to say the least. We have the China ban which I think is underrated (this time it's not the same as previous bans, this is total prosecution of any crypto activity) and we have the Evergrande situation. I just don't see it. We'll see what the FED does with the rates. If the SP500 fails to break to the upside that's even more bearish pressure because like it or not, BTC continues to be quite correlated with the market.

Like it or not.. in order to be able to better see what you believe that you are seeing, you need to zoom ur lil selfie out a wee widdle bit, calchuchesta.

But, hey.. you do you, and if you believe that the top for this cycle is in, then sure hopefully you are not betting too much on that theory.. Historically, one of the most major of downfalls for a lot of normies (who already know about bitcoin) is either failing/refusing to prepare their lil selfies for UPpity or inadequately preparing their lil selfies for UPpity.. 

So in essence it is all fine in dandy to have those various DOWNity theories, but if you fail/refuse to prepare for UPpity in the process, you only have yourself to blame when you may well never be able to get bitcoin at these prices again.. we saw such scenarios in mid-2017 and at various other times in bitcoin's history... and surely, no two periods are going to be exactly similar, but nonetheless there has been  a common tendency of either not preparing for UPpity or inadequately preparing for UPpity that seems to continue to run through a variety of historical timeframes in bitcoin's wee short widdle life.

~ he even accused me of being part of that group.... or somehow affiliated blah blah blah.

I don’t think so Jay. My little black book says otherwise.
Always a pleasure to talk to you, and witness the progress you’ve made in your algos.

Heard some variation of that before.

I’ve got more where that came from. Conspiracy theories with AI’s, whales and remora’s - right here, right now.

You've probably been to intensive conspiracy bootcamp, so congrats on that one.  Not everybody gets the fulfillment of those kinds wishes.

 

[Cryptotourist]

You've probably been to intensive conspiracy bootcamp, so congrats on that one.  Not everybody gets the fulfillment of those kinds wishes.

I did mention that I’ve been lurking for months.
That means that instead of making an effort to reply, I’ve made efforts to understand what it is that I’m reading between the lines.
Yeah, we can agree on this one, no problemo - thnx.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5KG6sh0NB-U

[JayJuanGee]

not understanding what is going on with the piddly 3 BTC I'm playing with.

Yes... aka humble brag.

I will grant you that in 2015-ish, 3 BTC may well have seemed like a piddly amount with a value of around $700 to $1k, but these days, many normies are having trouble even getting their grubbie little hands on anything close to that amount of BTC.

Joe Blow normies .. are first setting goals to get 0.21 BTC, and if they achieve that, then they are setting goals to get 1 BTC and 2.1BTC, so even getting to 3 BTC is a wee bit beyond a few levels of their more piddly targets (that seem to be a lot to them, for some strange reason.. and part of the reason, is that they live pay check to pay check, so they may well not even be able to reach the three preceding target goal amounts before even arriving at such purported piddly widdly 3 BTC).

I will note that some of us more fortunate of  BTC accumulators have been in engaging in our own humble brags in regards to having had established more than 3x the entry-level BTC accumulation target with 0.63 BTC and beyond, so since 0.63 BTC is NOT feeling like piddly, I am having some difficulties considering how 3 BTC could feel like piddly to any normie that I know.

Yeah, "consolidation" is a good word for it.  Sideways to slightly bearish.   I have medium-to-low confidence in this projection coming true, but if it does come true, it would be great for trading.  There will be the usual volatility to trade, but no big trend to lose out on if you happen to be out of the market, or get your face ripped off because you have too much leverage.
Also, ideal for the conservative-minded who likes to patiently stack sats.

One of the problems with your theory (good that you assign low probability to it) remains that bitcoin no doesn't work like that, even if peeps wish it would work like that.

#DYOR
#YMMV
#WhereDEEfuckie_is_ toxiemoxie?^tm