Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[mah87]

Bitcoin is a dumb ponzi scheme , this is crashing, how 600$ could be sustainable ?

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[adamstgBit]

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3365497539001/bitcoin-for-the-ordinary-investor/#sp=show-clips

so now we know how liquidity will work for B.I.T.

the "institutional investors" which we're allowed to get in early on bitcoin, are going to dump on "ordinary-investors"

as long as the SCC is there providing oversight makes this AOK

lmao

its really sad to think bitcoin might IPO on the stock market at a messely 600$ a coin

[billyjoeallen]

All I am seeing is alot of price exhaustion, no buying enthusiasm. I think this, plus the failure to escape the long term bearish slide, some pretty clear whale intention signals, and most importantly - the scary thin orderbooks across the exchanges, with giant air pockets all the way down to double digits - make 580 feel like a breathing point,and not much more.

I remember prepping my low orders during the Gox 24 hours, the low end of the bid book was like a jungle of multi-hundred orders. Now it is an African savannah. Occasional trees. 

When there's buying enthusiasm, it's time to sell. I don't use the Force. I don't trust my feelings. I buy the whole way down and sell the whole way up. The only thing I know about guys like the $710 whale is you don't see them coming.

[chessnut]

sentiment does not work on it's own. speculators feel the same before and after they have pulled the trigger on their views. to read sentiment correctly, one needs the chart. EW analysis or RSI divergance work hand in hand with sentiment.  

for example, speculators were crazy about litecoin opening on huobi long before the final surge. but I knew it was crazy to sell against that sentiment then because there was no divergance and much momentum, there is no accounting how far gamblers can push up price. I waited for the fifth wave divergance and shorted on the first down spike at $20.

[ardana123]

http://bitpesa.co/

Is there already a similar service like this or not? Seems like this might blow bitcoin up in the remittances market, instant conversion to Kenyan currency. So the end person doesn't have to deal with converting back to fiat anymore. It's not getting much news in bitcoin reddit/forums though.

I can see bitcoin ATM's popping up around the world which deal with bitpesa directly. Oh that would be glorious. Frictionless remittance to anyone in the world.

[JayJuanGee]

I need to stop looking at charts and work out how to get into building Bitcoin infrastructure.

you are right. when i was sitting in our kitchen drinking some minutes ago being somewhat concerned about the charts it dawned on me that i prefer the price being like it is while all those good news are pouring in about corporate adoption, growth, wall street, etc as opposed to a skyrocketing price with no substantial good news behind.
just check coindesk any day for the last week and compare that to the news a year ago. ccmf will happen sooner or later. i will try to stop worrying about the charts.

In other words....... HODL, HODL, HODL, HODL.... !!!!!!!!

[chessnut]

So there is a new slang going around for unconfirmed transactions...it is Dorians

Examples: he sent me a Satoshi but it is Dorian or I see the incoming transaction but it is still Dorian

also a slang for fake reports, my Co-worker newsweeked me

I almost pissed my pants from laughing loudly

rofl we must promote this slang throughout the bitcoin community.

[adamstgBit]

Lawyers for MtGox have announced that they've found 200,000 of the lost BTC!!!
Was it a heist, or just some lost private keys?

Link: http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20140321-00000038-yom-sci

[jojo69]

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3365497539001/bitcoin-for-the-ordinary-investor/#sp=show-clips


host: "but bitcoin is not backed the US government"

berry: *sigh*

 

he fielded that one well, "some regard that as a feature rather than a flaw"

[JayJuanGee]

http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3365497539001/bitcoin-for-the-ordinary-investor/#sp=show-clips

so now we know how liquidity will work for B.I.T.

the "institutional investors" which we're allowed to get in early on bitcoin, are going to dump on "ordinary-investors"

as long as the SCC is there providing oversight makes this AOK

lmao

In recent weeks, I have been considering ways to be more sympathetic to the various dilemmas of institutional investors, though.. when it comes to their potential considerations of investing into BTC. 

B/c if you think about big investors, they would likely want to invest considerable sums into BTC (cryptos), if they could get approval for such... then they would likely invest hundreds of millions or more (which may still only be a small percentage of their overall managed portfolio).. and then we know that even investing 100 million would likely cause a price spike... and even some logistical difficulties getting that many BTC in one pop...... or even to get that many BTC over a week or two.

Another problem that these institutional investors seem to have (including mouth pieces like Peter Schiff) is the psychological barrier problem in which they have feelings that if they were to invest into BTC, they would be giving their hard earned money to people who do not deserve it... ... that seems to be part of the reason why they keep asserting ponzi scheme and Winkelvoss brothers all are given lots of negative press and labeled continuously as a couple of undeserving whiners rich-brat abnormalities.

[gentlemand]

As long as there's boat loads of money to be made I really don't think they'll mind too much who they're giving it to.

As others have said before, it'll take one reasonably sized player to break from the herd and then others will come rushing.

[hdbuck]

ouch

-> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-20/what-surprise-it-turns-out-they-lied-about-deficit-last-year

[adamstgBit]

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Friday March 21

Prediction valid for: Friday 2014-03-21, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 3630 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 591 USD.



The red and green strokes are actual hourly prices (Huobi on the left, Bitstamp on the right).  The magenta square at right is the above prediction.  The blue square next to it is the last prediction (see below). The light blue-gray squares are the older predictions.   The blue dots are the Slumber Points, the mean prices ((L+H)/2) in the interval 19:00--19:59 UTC every day. On the Huobi plot, the size of the Albertosaurus under each dot indicates the night-time activity at Huobi. Specifically, the area of the reptile is proportional S = V_h/V_d, where V_h is Huobi's mean hourly volume in the three hour period 18:00--20:59 UTC (02:00am--04:59am China time), and V_d is Huobi's daily volume 00:00--23:59 UTC on the same date.  The largest Albertosauri correspond to the S = 0.010 or greater.   The size of each blue dot (on both plots) is proportional to its reliability weight, computed from Huobi's ratio S.  The brown lines on Huobi's plot are trends fitted a posteriori to the Slumber Points. The orange line is the trend assumed for the Huobi prediction above.

Specifically, the trend used is a straight line A + B*(d-d0) where d is the day of the month, d0 = 16, A = 3818.88, B = -37.70, fitted by weighted least squares to the points Mar/16--20.  (The fit was not very good, so it was tempting to assume a trend break between Mar/18 and Mar/19.  But let's wait for the next data point before deciding that.)

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which on Mar/19 seems to have jumped from ~6.06 to ~6.14 CNY/USD.

Checking the previous prediction

Prediction was posted on: Wednesday 2014-03-19, 22:24 UTC
Prediction was valid for: Thursday 2014-03-20, 19:00--19:59 UTC (~20.5 hours later)

Huobi's predicted price: 3725 CNY.
Huobi's actual price (L+H)/2: 3646 CNY
Error: 79 CNY (~13 USD)

Bitstamp's predicted price: 615 USD.
Bitstamp's actual price (L+H)/2: 591 USD
Error: 24 USD

NOTE:

[derpinheimer]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs&t=147

[keithers]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs&t=147

LOL!  The way you draw it makes it look a little scary, but as everyone knows...it only takes a little bit of good news to flip that graph upside down...

[chessnut]

No, news doesn't drive this market sir...... that is true of most markets especially bitcoin.

[adamstgBit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j-fWDrZSiZs&t=147

LOL!  The way you draw it makes it look a little scary, but as everyone knows...it only takes a little bit of good news to flip that graph upside down...

shhh i need cheaper coins.

[Richy_T]

Lawyers for MtGox have announced that they've found 200,000 of the lost BTC!!!
Was it a heist, or just some lost private keys?

Link: http://headlines.yahoo.co.jp/hl?a=20140321-00000038-yom-sci

Haha, who knows? Gox is less transparent than the Obama administration. That should have been a red flag right there. That might have flown if the Gox management were Japanese but they were just located there. Karpeles is French which should have been another red flag

[JorgeStolfi]

Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):

             !    Thu !    Fri !    Sat !   Sun !    Mon !    Tue !    Wed !    Thu !
  EXCHANGE   !  03/13 !  03/14 !  03/15 ! 03/16 !  03/17 !  03/18 !  03/19 !  03/20 ! Currencies considered

  Bitstamp   |   6.73 |   8.68 |   2.20 |  3.30 |   9.17 |  14.90 |   7.08 |  10.90 | USD
  BitFinEx   |   3.31 |   5.53 |   1.74 |  1.90 |   3.76 |   7.74 |   3.44 |   8.10 | USD
  BTC-e      |   7.43 |   3.76 |   2.55 |  2.62 |   3.90 |   7.91 |   5.48 |   7.85 | USD,EUR,RUR
  Kraken     |   0.40 |   0.48 |   0.34 |  0.15 |   0.48 |   0.85 |   0.57 |   0.74 | EUR
  CampBX     |   0.03 |   0.06 |   0.03 |  0.02 |   0.07 |   0.32 |   0.06 |   0.72 | USD
  CaVirtEx   |   0.13 |   0.11 |   0.06 |  0.06 |   0.10 |   0.10 |   0.13 |   0.40 | CAD
  Bitcoin.DE |   0.35 |   0.20 |   0.12 |  0.12 |   0.40 |   0.42 |   0.35 |   0.38 | EUR

  SUBTOTAL   |  18.38 |  18.82 |   7.04 |  8.17 |  17.88 |  32.24 |  17.11 |   0.00 |

  OKCoin     |  60.70 |  97.80 |  55.40 | 40.00 |  59.00 |  82.70 |  95.00 |  58.30 | CNY
  Huobi      |  65.40 |  78.40 |  36.50 | 27.00 |  63.80 |  84.10 |  62.40 |  48.10 | CNY
  BTC-China  |   2.89 |   2.97 |   1.13 |  1.51 |   2.74 |   3.70 |   3.79 |   2.85 | CNY
  Bter       |   0.26 |   0.19 |   0.35 |  0.28 |   0.34 |   0.27 |   0.35 |   0.36 | CNY

  SUBTOTAL   | 129.25 | 179.36 |  93.38 | 68.79 | 125.88 | 170.77 | 161.54 |   0.00 |

  TOTAL      | 147.63 | 198.18 | 100.42 | 76.96 | 143.76 | 203.01 | 178.65 |   0.00 |

All numbers were collected by hand from the site http://bitcoinwisdom.com. Beware of possible errors.

For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included.

Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that the same period may span part of day 01/14 or part of day 01/16 in your local time zone.)

NOTE: There are at least five additional large exchanges in China that are not on this table because they are not covered by Bitcoinwisdom: FxBTC, ChBTC, BTCTrade, BTC100, and BTC38.  Together they may have as much volume as Huobi or OKCoin.