Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[adamstgBit]

hey virtex now highlights the bid which are mine on there order books

pretty sure this is a buy single

 

[Davyd05]

If I wasn't as much of a buy and holder as I am I would have sold on the news of gox having xxx,xxx coins left lol. People somehow associate this with a reason to dump...not to say there aren't good reasons for why you should sell.. just seems unhealthy to be so fearful.

The API did show those 200k BTC moving around a few weeks ago so it wasn't exactly breaking news that those 200k were under their control - but it is something to watch.

Consider this:

- MtGox creditors (customers) must be threated equally. This is an absolute requirement.
- The amount of fiat currency they have divided by fiat owed to their customers is X%
- The amount of BTC currency they have divided by BTC owed to their customers is Y%

This creates a problem. X not being equal to Y and the fact that X and Y creditors must be threated equal creates a problem. One solution would be to sell the 200k BTC and pay all creditors using fiat.

lol if a 200K wall pops up, i'm sorry but i'm gonna panic sell.. lol

I am long in both BTC and LTC, and haven't sold any BTC in a long long time.   If a 200k BTC sell wall comes up, I will definitely sell some and re-buy some though...

You still definitely would NOT know, merely from the appearance of a wall, that such a wall were real or NOT.. unless you knew some back-story.

I was really just relating to selling on the news of the gox coins making a re appearance in the news plus some confirmations from gox themselves. I was aware of the coins existence before today reiterations.

[aminorex]

This is what a crash looks like these days.

[jojo69]

Gox themselves confirm they have 200,000 coins

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140320-btc-announce.pdf

oh yeah...that old $120,000,000 we forgot we had

my suspension of disbelief is...unwilling

[JorgeStolfi]

- MtGox creditors (customers) must be threated equally. This is an absolute requirement.
- The amount of fiat currency they have divided by fiat owed to their customers is X%
- The amount of BTC currency they have divided by BTC owed to their customers is Y%
This creates a problem. X not being equal to Y and the fact that X and Y creditors must be threated equal creates a problem. One solution would be to sell the 200k BTC and pay all creditors using fiat.

I wonder how this general situation is handled in general.

Suppose that an investor X puts 1000$ into a fund; after a year the management tells X that his shares of the fund are now worth 3000$; then the fund goes bankrupt.  How much can X claim to be owed, 1000$ or 3000$?

In my limited experience with civil claims, I would think that the courts do not count as the plaintiff´s losses any profits that he could have earned if either party had acted differently; they only count definite losses.  Thus, my understanding is that X above could claim only the 1000$ that he invested, not the 2000$ that he thought he had. 

If that is indeed the logic that the MtGOX bankruptcy court follows, then it would disregard all trades that happened inside MtGOX, and consider only how much each client deposited and withdrew, using the USD and BTC price at the time of deposit or withdrawal to convert everything to yen.

But I do not know if that is the case, really.  Does anyone know?

[JayJuanGee]

Gox themselves confirm they have 200,000 coins

https://www.mtgox.com/img/pdf/20140320-btc-announce.pdf

Please note that the reasons for their disappearance and the exact number of bitcoins
which disappeared is still under investigation and that the above figures may still change depending
on the results of the investigation

THIS

Gox is reserving its prerogative to change its story at any time.... and either come up with more coins or to lose more....

In this regard, Mark - the slimy chubby dweeb - may perceive it to be in his best interest to cough up the fricken coins... or at least to cough up more than is currently admitted to...

[JayJuanGee]

If I wasn't as much of a buy and holder as I am I would have sold on the news of gox having xxx,xxx coins left lol. People somehow associate this with a reason to dump...not to say there aren't good reasons for why you should sell.. just seems unhealthy to be so fearful.

The API did show those 200k BTC moving around a few weeks ago so it wasn't exactly breaking news that those 200k were under their control - but it is something to watch.

Consider this:

- MtGox creditors (customers) must be threated equally. This is an absolute requirement.
- The amount of fiat currency they have divided by fiat owed to their customers is X%
- The amount of BTC currency they have divided by BTC owed to their customers is Y%

This creates a problem. X not being equal to Y and the fact that X and Y creditors must be threated equal creates a problem. One solution would be to sell the 200k BTC and pay all creditors using fiat.

lol if a 200K wall pops up, i'm sorry but i'm gonna panic sell.. lol

I am long in both BTC and LTC, and haven't sold any BTC in a long long time.   If a 200k BTC sell wall comes up, I will definitely sell some and re-buy some though...

You still definitely would NOT know, merely from the appearance of a wall, that such a wall were real or NOT.. unless you knew some back-story.

I was really just relating to selling on the news of the gox coins making a re appearance in the news plus some confirmations from gox themselves. I was aware of the coins existence before today reiterations.

We've taken this whole scenario on a limb... ... but I believe I get your original point that GOX news is NOT necessarily negative.. or a reason to sell in and of itself.  But, we have already learned that BTC price reactions do NOT necessarily follow logic.   

[mooncake]

I wonder how this general situation is handled in general.

Suppose that an investor X puts 1000$ into a fund; after a year the management tells X that his shares of the fund are now worth 3000$; then the fund goes bankrupt.  How much can X claim to be owed, 1000$ or 3000$?

In my limited experience with civil claims, I would think that the courts do not count as the plaintiff´s losses any profits that he could have earned if either party had acted differently; they only count definite losses.  Thus, my understanding is that X above could claim only the 1000$ that he invested, not the 2000$ that he thought he had. 

If that is indeed the logic that the MtGOX bankruptcy court follows, then it would disregard all trades that happened inside MtGOX, and consider only how much each client deposited and withdrew, using the USD and BTC price at the time of deposit or withdrawal to convert everything to yen.

But I do not know if that is the case, really.  Does anyone know?

Management tells X that X is entitled to 3000$. The fund that Management manages goes bankrupt. Should X forego his entitlement?

[adamstgBit]

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

red everywhere means buy now right?  

[mooncake]

For the last couple of days, USD has been going north due to what the Fed chief says. At the same time, BTC has been going south. Any correlation?

Would love to hear academia view on this. JorgeStolfi perhaps?

[mooncake]

http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/

red everywhere means buy now right?  

If colour=red, action=buy; else action=do nothing.

[adamstgBit]

USD has been going north due to what the Fed chief says.

sounds sustainable.

[JorgeStolfi]

For the last couple of days, USD has been going north due to what the Fed chief says. At the same time, BTC has been going south. Any correlation?

Would love to hear academia view on this. JorgeStolfi perhaps?

Sorry, I am a computer scientist, not an economist...

[KeyserSoze]

Sorry, I am a computer scientist, not an economist...

Why did I chuckle when I read this?

[Robert Lewandowski]

For the last couple of days, USD has been going north due to what the Fed chief says. At the same time, BTC has been going south. Any correlation?

Would love to hear academia view on this. JorgeStolfi perhaps?

Sorry, I am a computer scientist, not an economist...

Bitcoin correlates with Gold

[mooncake]

Sorry, I am a computer scientist, not an economist...

From your posts on the prediction of BTC price, I thought you will be interested in understanding the factors affecting BTC price.  

What are your research interest areas anyway?

[mooncake]

Bitcoin correlates with Gold

Positively or negatively?

[pdawg]

The market has a wedgie

[seriouscoin]

does bitcoinity work for you guys? Mine is just blank for hours now

[JorgeStolfi]

From your posts on the prediction of BTC price, I thought you will be interested in understanding the factors affecting BTC price.  
What are your research interest areas anyway?

I have been doing a lot of numerical analysis so I find that an interesting problem.  But I was originally drawn to bitcoin because of my occasional role as public advocate in computer-related issues, such as electronic voting, privacy, copyright...