I’m ready brotherens
Though I totally get what this guy is saying AND agree with it with my whole body...
Evidently he's not been around long enough to find out you don't tell the corn what it "MUST" do.
Yeah this whole S2F "self-fulfilling prophecy" thing is getting tedious.
I mean, there's nothing to say that the price action couldn't go something like this below. Would the S2F devotees cry then?
Absolutely. I think that actually matches some people predictions that are more conservative than PlanB. Like this one:
I think there is also a significant non-zero possibility that the model breaks to the upside as well. As in cuts through the 110k line, goes up even higher, and then does not come back down as much as we have seen in past cycles.
I have been predicting that for two years. Not as a sure fire thing, but with more probability than we have had so far. And I will gladly eat crow after the next 85% bear.
I doubt that either you and/or Torque are saying much of anything in regards to your criticisms of the stock-to-flow model, cAPSLOCK. Sure, the model might break to the downside or it might break to the upside or the model might not break, at all.. So fucking what?
I can draw squiggly lines on a page too.. and I can also describe them in words.. so sure it could play out exactly like that or some variation of that.. or it might not.. seems like a big so what.
We are in between 1972 (4.4%) and 1973 (8.8%) as far as inflation is concerned.
By 1980 yearly inflation was 14%.
https://www.investopedia.com/articles/economics/09/1970s-great-inflation.aspI always thought that we are repeating the 70ies this decade.
BTW, if it more or less repeats, we would be at 15-20% short term bond yields by about 2028-2029.
Stocks would be devastated, not sure about bitcoin. If bitcoin price stabilizes by then, bonds might become more attractive.
Currently, I plan to switch some money to bonds at that time (2028-2029) if I still care about anything.
Alternatively, we can hyperbitconize, which would be just fine.
That's a strange way of framing our macroeconomic troubles.. to suggest that they are just some repeated pattern from the 1970s.. it's like you are missing nuance and you are missing the significance of an additional 35 to 40 years of irresponsible money supply.. and even suggesting that the whole macro-matter is just going to recover.. like it did in the 80s and 90s... a kind of dream land..
...and also, it seems that in recent times, the desperation levels of the status quo elite has been stronger in their attacks against communication mechanisms, which also ties into bitcoin being available currently... sure, every time probably seems to contain a lot of uncertainties and even desperate politicians and desperate bankers exploiting the people, but surely there are a lot of very important nuances in how times differ now as compared to what they were like in the 1970s (even considering the roles of banks and the lack of needs that banks seem to have to establish relations and ties to their communities). If I were listening to you Biodom, I would tentatively (and wrongly) conclude that it's going to all just fix itself.. and that is not really the case, except now we have bitcoin as a kind of escape hatch, for anyone who might be able to recognize and act upon the availability of such hedging mechanism that had not been available to them in prior times.
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