buddy is letting us down
be prepared to buy the dip
Ok... will do... Should I repeat where my buy orders start? or am I giving away too much.? I think that I said enough already. Will revisit this topic if we continue to go DOWNity.. otherwise our low for this period is $59,510.. so far.. not sure if the bottom is "in" yet.. because we are still ONLY $900 above such bottom as I type this response... and surely no crazy volume or anything like that going on during this crazy sunday.. even though sometimes we may well have recognized and appreciated that there sometimes can be some strategic plays that take place around the close of the weekly candle.. .. which still has about 6.25 hours to play out.. as I type this post.
I appreciate that you and I have gone back and forth in our discussion of the stock2F model, so my comments might not really be so much directed at correcting anything that you say, but attempting to flesh out some of my thoughts in this area - in terms of whether maybe I had been misunderstood in what I was attempting to say to both Torque and cAPSLOCK.... and I am not even really disagreeing in great detail with either Torque or cAPSLOCK - but sometimes, it just seems to me that ideas need to be fleshed out a wee bit more, especially when attempting to address something that is so attempting to be data driven like the S2F model.
I do not think my input on this really is very detailed or scientific. But I am reacting on a gut level to what I see out there as either an almost religious reverence for the model, or a complete rejection of it.
I do get the sense that you are fighting the model too much.. but whatever, you do you. Surely, sometimes greater insight can come from those kinds of battles whether we are referring to stock to flow or other talking points that normies (including the royal us) rely upon to make their BTC price prediction assertions or other attempts to describe what they believe is going on in bitcoinlandia.
I think that kind of black and white thinking is common, and a place people make mistakes.
People do that with almost everything, and so what? Does not mean that we cannot get informative insight in regards to the model, even if people might well be talking wrongly about what it means.
I think PlanB himself is very clear that his model will most likely break.
Again? Break into the future or break this cycle -- break upwards or downward from expectations may well not be a "breaking" of the model.
I am listening to his interview with Laura Shin (I wish she did not cause me such discomfort... she's the absolute representative example of the herd).
Laura is not a bad interviewer.. of course, each of us have our personality flaws and limitations.. and she is no exception.. and she does seem to do a pretty good job overall to suss out various kinds of information from people.. maybe I am more concerned about her choice to refuse to invest in bitcoin.. but sure, she has both ideas of journalistic integrity and she also has ideas that she is doing quite well with her podcast and sponsors etc without having to invest in bitcoin (or any other crypto.. not that I would consider any kind of necessary prudence or reasonableness in investing in anything other than bitcoin... fuck journalistic integrity because she could still merely just disclose and that should be able to sufficiently cover the matter.. at least from my point of view.. but hey part of the value of having a variety of thinkers in the space is that people strike balances in different ways.. and I am hard pressed to consider anyone - even members here - with whom I agree 100% - even though there are likely some guys here who I have really high levels of agreement - perhaps getting up to the 95% arena... though maybe if we met for beers and tried to hash things out, I might find out that it's more like 92%-ish.. at the most.. hahahahahaha.)..
By the way, you are one of the guys, cAPSLOCK, who I tentatively consider having 80% to 90% agreement levels with
(change my mind if you must.. it's not a locked amount), even though sometimes our ways of presenting are different and sometimes we might even annoy one another in terms of tone.. but substantively (at least in recent times), we have pretty damned high levels of agreement.. seems to me.. at least off the top of my head.
And they are talking about whether or not this cycle could be the supercycle and his position is it's still too early. And to be honest I agree with him. I think the chance that THIS is the cycle is lower than the chance that it is not.
Those are my leanings regarding supercycle ideas, too...so it seems that you, me and PlanB are decently aligned regarding aspects of applicability of the supercycle to this particular cycle.
But what I am saying is IT WILL eventually happen. If not this cycle, then one of the next.
I don't know if you are saying anything much different here.,. except maybe you are inclined to get rid of the stock to flow way quicker than me or PlanB and maybe I am going to want to hang onto the stock to flow model longer than PlanB.. even though we are talking about PlanB's model.. but I give few shits about if he were to give up on the model before me.. if we are talking this cycle or a few cycles down the road.
I actually suspect that with the playing out of facts, PlanB is going to likely find some ways to either recover his model or to tweak it in ways that I already anticipate (such as shifting the curve), but do I give any shits about whether he shifts the curve or not.? No I don't. We will cross that bridge when we get there.. if I am still alive.. and until then , the stock to flow model represents amongst the best of the predictor models.. especially if it is coupled with the 4-year fractal (adds redundancy) and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles (helps to account for demand - which is similar to accounting for possible rates of adoption)..
Simply because of the macro environment (gold USD inflation central banks etc) as well as the fact that the halvings are causing the reward to become exponentially smaller...
It really is the exponential aspect of this that is so interesting. Bitcoin is the PARABOLIC asset. Everything about it.the math behind it is astronomical, and every thing about the way bitcoin grows is parabolic.
Of course, the parabolic aspect of adoption and growth is something that is not really captured by the model.. and you almost constantly find me suggesting that S2F has to be supplemented by accounting for exponential s-curve adoption based on networking effects and Metcalfe principles.
Anyway. I think PlanB is probably right that this halving will also have a draw down. But I would also be kind of surprised if it is the same sort of 80+% thing we have seen in the past.
You, me and PlanB are saying similar things on the draw down topic.. at least when you present the matter generally, like you just did.
By the way, several times in the past year or perhaps even longer, I personally have been suggesting if the top is really damned high for this cycle.. such as going to $1.5 million-ish (of course not very high odds of it happening), then the subsequent draw down is going to be greatly brutal in terms of percentages, but if we end up having a somewhat whimpy top that might ONLY get into the $100ks or $200ks, then it would hardly make any sense to experience a draw down of 80%+-ish.. even though we know that anything in bitcoin is possible, so what actually ends up happening does not have any kind of "has to make sense" prerequisite.
I also think there could be a time coming when OUR crop of "OG"s are going to be tempted to move out "at the top" and then be surprised to learn that the pullback we saw was shallower than we have figured and we lose our stake somewhat. I think a max pain scenario for Bitcoin OGs is still on the horizon.
Oh gawd.. cAPSLOCK..
If you are trying to lump too many peeps into the same categories, you are surely going to get ur lil selfie into trouble. We should have already figured by now that if we try to guess what various BIG holders are going to do when the BTC price goes up, we are going to get it wrong to predict that they (we) are going to sell on-mass at certain price points. Of course, there are always going to be some guys who have regrets, and maybe conclude that they should have sole more.. they ended up selling 10%, but upon retrospect, they see that they could have done way better by selling more.. blah blah blah.. so what. Always going to be guys like that... and also going to be guys who give few shits about if the draw down is 50% or 80% or whatever.. they are still 3x, 10x, 50x, 100x, 1000x or whatever in profits even after the 80%-ish draw down or whatever ends up happening. They give few shits about the draw down because they already accounted for (and/or anticipated) those levels of extremes (such as 80%+-ish).. Of course, there are going to be variations of preparing in advanced and regrets about not having had prepared enough, too.
Anyway... my thoughts are all over the place on this stuff.
Of course, if you either try to lump too many folks into one category, you are going to devolve into incoherence and also if you are failing/refusing to account for already existing credible BTC price prediction models by spinning your own models, then you are also likely to be led astray.. and lead us (the royal us, of course) astray along the way, too.
Keep us above 60
~
Otherwise I’m forced to start buying little dips…
Good idea, I like it! I created a buy order at €60, just for the hell of it
Now I wait for a fat finger flash crash.
Whoaza!!!!!!! Gonna have to label you as a troll soon Loyce..
(alternatively a bitcoin naysayer, nocoiner, undercoiner, fence-sitter, DOWNity aspirationalist or some other variant of those titles)
Poll
