Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

Don’t make the same mistake, have fun and enjoy life…..

i personally picked up quite a few Bitcoins 10 years ago and am now running in the other direction 🏃‍♂️

[JayJuanGee]

So I grabbed six small pieces back.

Will buy more dip if it comes.

When I buy dip is is always buy and hodl it.
 I have three accounts for that.

I always hodl and have never sold any BTC from those accounts .

Those 3 accounts are BTC buy dip and hodl only.

My exit plan on them is sell at 70 years old.

until then buy dips and hodl.

Next dip level to buy is 55555.55

I think you will change your mind on that bold part.  What will you be selling them for?  How many "things" will you need?  Unless you are in your late 60s now and 70 is only a couple years away, I do not think THAT part of your plan makes a lot of sense.

Well, a question would be whether all is sold at a certain timeframe  that is around 5-6 years from now, versus the more practical and realistic attempts to just cash out as needed.. including maybe various lumpsums to cover/supplement (3 months or 1 year of various anticipated expenses) (as Dabs also mentioned).

*Fun with fractals*

A re-test of old resistance becoming new support? Sounds short-term bearish I know, but in fact it'd be extremely bullish to build up momentum as recent price history has previously proven....

You are trying to draw a potential short-term bearish picture out of the matter, even though bitcoin is very bullish, as your alternative assertion seems to suggest as the minority likely outcome... We are bullish, so something is likely wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrooooooonnnnngggggg with your bearish anticipatenings.

I tell you, it's Godzilla with his tail about to fire laser beams or something. That's what I keep seeing in these fractal charts. That or a dinosaur t-rex or something. Stegasaurus sometimes. Right now, maybe it's a Spinosaurus (the one in Jurassic park 3?)

This sounds more accurate than the dragonvslinux fractionalizenings....hahahahaaha.. too much bearening with that dragonvslinux dude....     - no homo...

[dragonvslinux]

*Fun with fractals*

A re-test of old resistance becoming new support? Sounds short-term bearish I know, but in fact it'd be extremely bullish to build up momentum as recent price history has previously proven....

You are trying to draw a potential short-term bearish picture out of the matter, even though bitcoin is very bullish, as your alternative assertion seems to suggest as the minority likely outcome... We are bullish, so something is likely wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrooooooonnnnngggggg with your bearish anticipatenings.

Let's wait and see  

For sure, we both no doubt agree Daily/Weekly are bullish, but 4hr chart for all those traderz out there is no longer bullish. It's not outright *bearish*, but key bullish momentum has been broken.
Hence, not shorting opportunity bearish (unless you love high risk and regularly getting rekt™), but more bullish momentum has faded "take profits" neutral, wait for re-entry.

Getting rejected by the 50 MA, VPVR point of control, wedge resistance trend-line as well as previous long-term resistance trend-line, will likely bring prices down to $57K.

The confluence of resistance is strong. Obviously breaking above would be bullish, but confirming a rejection would indicate a continuation of short-term correction is likely.
That 50 MA has supported the price since $43K, price first broke and closed below it at $62K. Now it's sloping downwards (bearish) and price is getting rejected by it.
Since when were there not healthy short-term corrections in ultra bullish long-term bull markets anyway? Never...

[RejectedBanana]

It's been a while since I've updated this data and I'm far too lazy to overlay the price chart anymore. Most of us old-timers have the price chart inscribed on our retinas anyhoo!

In short, ATHs don't interest me as much as bottoms... I do like me firm bottoms!  

These charts indicate the number of days between the LAST time BTC dropped down to the specified price targets: doublings on the first chart, orders of magnitude (10x) on the second.

For example, it took 248 days between the last time it was (hopefully ever) $32k and $16k. Or ~3.5 years between the $10k and $1k bottoms.

The bars in red are rough (recent-average) forecasts. No way do I consider this TA, so feel free to offer your own prognostications!

Will May of next year be the last time it ever drops below $65k? Sooner?

When $100k bottom, 2024!??

Bottoms away!

Mt Gox and Bitstamp data

[OutOfMemory]

Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.

It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.

Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP  

I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.

[dragonvslinux]

Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.

It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.

Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP  

I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.

Technically price has (so far) formed a double top on a Weekly time-frame. Double tops aren't where price is exactly the same, but when they are close enough prior to a reversal (such as <3%).
That said, Bitcoin has never ended it's mid or long-term bull markets with a double top, especially 6 months apart, so I find it highly unlikely this will be the case this time around.
$10K is otherwise an insane price to be targeting. $10K would more likely yield $1K prices with a definite bubble burst than a new low, as it would invalidate 10 years of price history.
The 200 Week MA that price has never broken below in the past 6 years is currently >$15K, by 2023 it'll likely be >$20K  
This is just the fakeout for the "double top believers" and traditional traders prior to new ATH  
I prefer the theory that double tops are meant to be broken, as it weakens resistance...

[JayJuanGee]

This was a short lived low volume dip. Nothing to see here.

We should attempt to be realistic, if we can.

Combinations of low volume and high volume can be mixed in there quite frequently.

Of course, high volume is going to tell us that potentially a more meaningful battle is taking place or at least there is some level of seriousness behind the BTC price dynamic "happenings."  I am not going to rule out short-term low volume events because it only tells us what is happening at the moment, but it does not tell us whether the bearwhales are running out of ammo (or their willingness to employ it).  

Many of us know that if we end up witnessing a high volume dip coupled with a high volume reversal, we can gain confidence that the bottom may well be in.. no guarantees that the bottom is in, but the evidence is decently stronger in those kinds of high volume reversals.  

If we do not witness a high volume reversal, then we should continuously retain some skepticism regarding whether the most recent local bottom is "in" or not.. and frequently, if the volume stays relatively low (or at least not high), then we must rely upon getting some distance up the price ladder that would cause us to garner increasing levels of confidence based on cushion.. How much cushion is enough is likely another question.. ?  Frequently 5% to 10% can be helpful, but many times we have to get in supra 15% levels or so above our local bottom before confidence might be assured that such "bottom is in".. I know that peeps are capable of calling the bottom earlier than my supra 15% level is suggesting - and yeah call me a conservative when it comes to presuming the bottom too early.. and even if I start to presume any such bottom.. I become nervous if the cushion gets reached and then we start to fall back within striking distance in that 5% to 10% cushion zone.. which again.. just does not seem enough.. absent some stronger indications, such as a high volume reversal or something like that..

Based on some of our BTC price moves in the past 12 hours or so, I came to realize that I had made a mistake in my above quoted analysis.. because in some sense, I was describing a kind of applicable recovery criteria for some kind of larger dip in BTC prices in which we are not currently in such a larger dip in BTC prices scenario currently, so if we get 30% to 50% dips in BTC price, then we likely need higher levels of recovery in order to rest assured that "the bottom is in"... but that is not where we are at.

In our current BTC price posture, so far, we have ONLY had merely around a 15% price correction from $67,010 to $58,100 - within about a week's timeframe from 10/20 to 10/27... so surely not going to need anywhere close to a 15% bounce back in order to feel some decently high levels of confidence that this particular local bottom of $58,100 is "in."  A 15% bounce back would put us right in the ball park of where we were on 10/20, and that would be testing ATH's all over again...

So maybe some kind of framework would be to split the difference to determine if we are in the lower half of recovering back or in the higher half of recovering back..  That split difference would be around $62,500...  so if we are in the lower half, then we have less confidence that $58,100 is the bottom for this particular correction.. and of course, if we are in the upper half of such zone, then we would be more confident that we are going back to test the top rather than the bottom...  But if we had already been to the mid-$63ks several times, and then we could not get above that.. .maybe it would be better to measure the mid-zone more conservatively and use the mid-$63ks until perhaps a lower number might become more logical... yeah.. I know I am engaging in a kind of back door technical analysis.. and maybe even rolling my own TA.. which is not good place to be.. because mostly we cannot get too caught up on technical analysis unless we overall tend to weight the TA in terms of which market we are in.. and many of us recognize and appreciate that we have been in a bull market since about April 2019...so if we come up with any kind of tentative conclusions that involve TA... we have to at least add a few more percentage of UPpity to our analysis merely to account for both our being in a bull market and also that we are in a paradigm shifting asset class that also has an additional amount of UPpity (aka ngu) built in.

In any event, to attempt to give a specific number, I am not really going to feel comfortable in believing that the "bottom is in" until we get into around the mid-$63ks-ish (I know, I know, I know... for reasons that I already attempted to state, I just am not comfortable choosing the mid-$62ks-ish as my "bottom is in" price-point threshold).. and maybe if we are able to sustain that for a while.. then I will feel more comfortable to taunt the bears, the nocoiners, fence-sitters and the shitcoin pumpeners for failing/refusing to adequately pee pare their lil selfies for bitcoin UPpity.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[LFC_Bitcoin]

🏝 we are da bitcoin bwwoiss! we all gonna make it! now we can go to hundred k hundred k hundred k
https://twitter.com/skyler_ws/status/1453674411886882816?s=21


 

Click ^^

[El duderino_]

I know where hodlers go

[cAPSLOCK]

🏝 we are da bitcoin bwwoiss! we all gonna make it! now we can go to hundred k hundred k hundred k
https://twitter.com/skyler_ws/status/1453674411886882816?s=21


 

Click ^^

[OutOfMemory]

Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.

It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.

Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP  

I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.

Technically price has (so far) formed a double top on a Weekly time-frame. Double tops aren't where price is exactly the same, but when they are close enough prior to a reversal (such as <3%).
That said, Bitcoin has never ended it's mid or long-term bull markets with a double top, especially 6 months apart, so I find it highly unlikely this will be the case this time around.
$10K is otherwise an insane price to be targeting. $10K would more likely yield $1K prices with a definite bubble burst than a new low, as it would invalidate 10 years of price history.
The 200 Week MA that price has never broken below in the past 6 years is currently >$15K, by 2023 it'll likely be >$20K  
This is just the fakeout for the "double top believers" and traditional traders prior to new ATH  
I prefer the theory that double tops are meant to be broken, as it weakens resistance...

This is the far better argumentation than my rant.
I am too grumpy to comment in an objective way today mostly, falling back to read-only mode...  

[AlcoHoDL]

Kraken — S H O C K T O B E R

Read the full report (PDF). Some interesting data analysis in there. Things are looking very bullish for Bitcoin. Can't wait to see where we'll be at the end of the year. 6 digits? Very likely. In 2022? A certainty!

HoDL.

[El duderino_]

Flash dump…..

Bouncing though

Bounce to ATH?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Flash dump…..

Bouncing though

Bounce to ATH?

Some kind of flip-flop whale maneuver? (see ETHBTC chart)

Edit: Could not resist to post. I just try to be nice for the rest of the day and it should be ok...

[proudhon]

Flash dump…..

Bouncing though

Bounce to ATH?

[OutOfMemory]

Flash dump…..

Bouncing though

Bounce to ATH?

You're really testing me, you know that you do, right?

However, futures expiry tomorrow. Flash dumps not really surprising. Math and science...

[Wekkel]

Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.

It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.

Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.  
[…]

I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.

Twitter has an all encompassing response to this: NGMI.

It’s just like when the price was hovering around $39k after the Elon deluge of April/May. N00bs talking about a bad chart and sub $20k

My scarred brain told them to Hodl because we were at the exact spot where people do a Mindrust. Scarred because I have lost a lot of Bitcoins in the past that way.

Some will never learn. Let them part with their precious and give us a good time the rest of our lifes.

Coins getting sold, taken off the exchanges, never to be seen again.

Good day, Sir. You get nothing!

Or summarised: Not Gonna Make It