*Fun with fractals*
A re-test of old resistance becoming new support? Sounds short-term bearish I know, but in fact it'd be extremely bullish to build up momentum as recent price history has previously proven....
You are trying to draw a potential short-term bearish picture out of the matter, even though bitcoin is very bullish, as your alternative assertion seems to suggest as the minority likely outcome... We are bullish, so something is likely wwwwwwwwwrrrrrrrrooooooonnnnngggggg with your bearish anticipatenings.
Let's wait and see
For sure, we both no doubt agree Daily/Weekly are bullish, but 4hr chart for all those traderz out there is no longer bullish. It's not outright *bearish*, but key bullish momentum has been broken.
Hence, not shorting opportunity bearish (unless you love high risk and regularly getting rekt™), but more bullish momentum has faded "take profits" neutral, wait for re-entry.
I am not really clear about how waiting and seeing is going to help exactly.. because let's say for example hypothetically (not even saying these are the actual numbers, but just to give us a kind of difference of opinion talking point) you assign a 60/40 assessment that the 28,100
bottom is not in, and I argue that the odds are 60/40 that the
bottom is in, then it still ends up being a BIG so fucking what if the bottom ends up being in or not, no?
For me, it does because I hardly change any of my practices because even if I argue any kind of point I don't usually get much beyond 50/50.. so currently, I am not even asserting that I believe that the bottom is not in. I am just quibbling with assertions, such as yours, that actually seem to be assigning pretty decently high odds to claims that the bottom is likely not in.. and you seem to be even in a kind of 70/30 assertion.. the way you are framing the matter.. which maybe I am even teetering more towards the bottom NOT being in, but if BTC prices go above $63,500 I will start to have something like 52% to 56% confidence that the bottom is in..
Are we merely repeating our old go to talking-points just in another BTC price-posture scenario?
Hey.. by the way, I just thought about another dynamic that we have discussed which is my having considered that $55k to $80k is a kind of noman's zone. so whether or not that noman's zone actually exists, I remain of the belief that recent BTC price actions have not yet negated both the existence of such noman's zone more or less where I have conceptually placed it and the likely ongoing pressures that come from the likely ongoing existence of such noman's zone....so sure, nothing is guaranteed in bitcoinlandia, but it just seems more difficult to get BTC price corrections while we are in such zone.. not impossible, but likely way more work for any bearwhales trying to either keep the BTC price from passing through such zone or to attempt to knock the BTC price below the zone (or otherwise attempt to negate the actual likely existence of such zone).
Getting rejected by the 50 MA, VPVR point of control, wedge resistance trend-line as well as previous long-term resistance trend-line, will likely bring prices down to $57K.
The confluence of resistance is strong. Obviously breaking above would be bullish, but confirming a rejection would indicate a continuation of short-term correction is likely.
That 50 MA has supported the price since $43K, price first broke and closed below it at $62K. Now it's sloping downwards (bearish) and price is getting rejected by it.
Since when were there not healthy short-term corrections in ultra bullish long-term bull markets anyway? Never...
Hey, I am not even opposed to your analysis (aka mumbo jumbo.. hahahahahaha).. probably just from my perspective
(whatever that's worth?) that you seem to be assigning too much weight to down.. that's all.
Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.
It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.
Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP
I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.
You are such a "nice guy" OOM...!!!!!!!
#nohomo 
Seems like the market formed a double top. There may be a small dead cat bounce but after that it’s only down I’m afraid. Welcome to the next long crypto winter. You should sell everything & sit on the sidelines, ready to buy back sub $10,000 in 2023.
It was fun whilst it lasted but the top is in. Sell everything now before the long crypto winter engulfs you.
Seems like you have no clue what a double top is.
Hint: second top is lower than the first.
But hey, if you still believe in sub $10k prices, i just wish you HFSP
I'm in a kind of bad mood today. This is the nicest answer to this bullshit post that i could write up.
Technically price has (so far) formed a double top on a Weekly time-frame. Double tops aren't where price is exactly the same, but when they are close enough prior to a reversal (such as <3%).
That said, Bitcoin has never ended it's mid or long-term bull markets with a double top, especially 6 months apart, so I find it highly unlikely this will be the case this time around.
$10K is otherwise an insane price to be targeting. $10K would more likely yield $1K prices with a definite bubble burst than a new low, as it would invalidate 10 years of price history.
The 200 Week MA that price has never broken below in the past 6 years is currently >$15K, by 2023 it'll likely be >$20K
This is just the fakeout for the "double top believers" and traditional traders prior to new ATH
I prefer the theory that double tops are meant to be broken, as it weakens resistance...
Fair enough regarding your points about double top or no double top.
Your factual description of the 200 week MA seems a wee bit off both in terms of facts and in terms of speculation regarding where the 200-week moving average might be going in the next 14-months-ish.
First, actual measurements of the current 200-week MA puts it at about $16,650, and one year ago it was right around $7k. Look at the current 200-week MA in the below link.
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/200-week-moving-average-heatmap/For sure the last year has seen a more than a doubling of such 200-week moving average lagging indicator, and if you really think about it, nearly 3 years of the data is already contained with any measurements that we might speculate about where the 200-week moving average might be 14-months-ish (your reference to 2023).
$30k is not out of the question for where the 200-week MA might be at the start of 2023, $25k might even be a sure thing, so your approximation of $20k seems very bearish and kind of an anticipation of low BTC prices in the coming year... oh my? oh my? You are not saying low prices directly, but we would have to get some pretty damned low BTC prices, relatively speaking to achieve anything even close to as low as $20k-ish for our 200-week MA for the start of 2023.
Regarding historically BTC prices going below the 200-week moving average, you can see from the above-linked chart that it does happen sometimes, but usually the going below is fairly brief.. and the actual BTC spot price has tended to ongoingly retain quite a decently-sized cushion between itself and the 200-week moving average... of course, the 200-week MA is not guaranteed to continue to move up like it historically has, but we really do not have any data suggesting that it is not going to continue to move up, even if it might start to move up more slowly than it has historically (which seems logical).. perhaps? perhaps?
Poll
