Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Gachapin]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.  This is usually the opposite of what I'm used to seeing.  I'd remain cautious here.  Price models are starting to break and the focus is turning to things like NFTs and coin burns while DeFi is still going strong even after the latest crash.  There isn't a whole lot of reason to be bullish on Bitcoin here in my opinion, but we haven't seen the multiyear blow off top that we typically see, so that remains the hope for a target.  I think it would be wise to have an exit plan ready if the right opportunity presents itself and starting to familiarize yourself with ways to earn a return from your crypto other than by 'price go up' might be a good idea.

Would you mind explaining some of the many "signs of long term weakness" that you see in the market, apart from DEFI and NFTs?

I mean BTC tends to brake most price models eventually.
Regarding stock to flow: it is still valid. Only PlanB's price floor model broke recently. (If you mean his models)

[dragonvslinux]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Today on Coinbase there was the highest 4hr bullish volume candle since October 20th for example.

Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term, given how resistance levels have been consistently sold:



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

[philipma1957]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Gachapin]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.

 

[Richy_T]

is this a Mickey D's witch or Taylor Swift?

Funny. When I was searching this up, I saw someone noticing the resemblance to TSwift. When I first saw it though, Swift was a non-entity and probably running around a school playground.

[Richy_T]

Moreover, considering that in those 11 years that you have been here, you have not deigned to put an avatar, then such a trifle should not worry you much.

As Jefferson said ... “On matters of style, swim with the current, on matters of principle, stand like a rock.”  

I do like the current software, although a dark mode would be nice. It's more of a joke related to this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=50617.0

Something could probably be done with user style sheets.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.  This is usually the opposite of what I'm used to seeing.  I'd remain cautious here.  Price models are starting to break and the focus is turning to things like NFTs and coin burns while DeFi is still going strong even after the latest crash.  There isn't a whole lot of reason to be bullish on Bitcoin here in my opinion, but we haven't seen the multiyear blow off top that we typically see, so that remains the hope for a target.  I think it would be wise to have an exit plan ready if the right opportunity presents itself and starting to familiarize yourself with ways to earn a return from your crypto other than by 'price go up' might be a good idea.

Would you mind explaining some of the many "signs of long term weakness" that you see in the market, apart from DEFI and NFTs?

I mean BTC tends to brake most price models eventually.
Regarding stock to flow: it is still valid. Only PlanB's price floor model broke recently. (If you mean his models)

I would be surprised if OgNasty is going to be inclined to explain his lil selfie a wee bit MOAR better, since even he appears to want to be seen as a sorcerer to come here with some vague-ass and hardly supported by any evidence prognostications that imply that selling some might be a good idea... or of course the implication that it might be preferable to get involved in shitcoins or some other yielding product because bitcoin's UP performance is just not good enough.. blah blah blah nonsense.

[Richy_T]

I remember reading at the time that "freeze" refers to ice cream in japan and that the victim probably thought he was being offered a Halloween treat. It was October 31 and there were Halloween decorations in place. Trick-or-treating is usually done after dark.

The Wikipedia said the 17th which is way early for trick or treating. It seems they made an unfortunate mistake that shouldn't have resulted in death.

[philipma1957]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.

 

might happen or not.

much the same as my streched cycle could happen
or some other case.

we are living in very interesting times.

[Gachapin]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.

 

might happen or not.

much the same as my streched cycle could happen
or some other case.

we are living in very interesting times.

Def. interesting!
And recently even frightening times, due to the Corona shit show.

If I had to bet my money, I would also bet on a lengthening cycle. Or one that goes more flat and sideways than the previous ones.
With all that money printing, I just can't see a 2 year long bear phase, where it looks dead.




 

 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[philipma1957]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

If we have already seen the end of the cycle, it was def. quite a weak one. The Corona panic would be a good explanation.

But what I'm pretty sure about is that there is a lot of fresh brrrrrr-fiat looking for assets to float into.

And what Saylor reminded me of is that if only a few big players (e.g. Apple, Microsoft, or else) started buying, you could throw most models in the bin, anyways.   Hopium... yes. But more realistic than ever before.

 

might happen or not.

much the same as my streched cycle could happen
or some other case.

we are living in very interesting times.

Def. interesting!
And recently even frightening times, due to the Corona shit show.

If I had to bet my money, I would also bet on a lengthening cycle. Or one that goes more flat and sideways than the previous ones.
With all that money printing, I just can't see a 2 year long bear phase, where it looks dead.




 

 

yeah my thoughts exactly.

[d_eddie]

I heard you guys love McDonald

Probably more like

is this a Mickey D's witch or Taylor Swift?

Scary she is not - yet doesn't smell like a sexbomb, dressed as she is like a hamburger clown.

I'd pick her over the doll any day though.

[Gachapin]

Here us something interesting, if true.
Apparently, SP500 is flat since 1997, if you calculate (normalize) against M2 money supply.

https://twitter.com/PrestonPysh/status/1466868260838821895/photo/1

If this is really true, I consider it one of the most important charts I have seen in the recent years.

[HI-TEC99]

30k

Thank you gay cats.

Damn, I missed posting on the 30k page.

I'll just have to wait until shit loads of deletions moves my post back seven pages.

[HI-TEC99]

I heard you guys love McDonald

Probably more like

is this a Mickey D's witch or Taylor Swift?

Scary she is not - yet doesn't smell like a sexbomb, dressed as she is like a hamburger clown.

I'd pick her over the doll any day though.

Would you pick her over the bench statue too?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

You might disagree with his focus (albeit not completely) on alts, but this is overall a very decent guy (Tyler aka Chico Crypto), imho.
Burned out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_FWxlKRYBc
It's sad to see that being under stress of producing content daily did something quite bad for his mental state.
A very honest, jarring video.
Don't get the "game" get to you.

Getting off a daily grind in bitcoin and kind of moving to a long term picture has been very good for me this cycle vs 2017-2018-first excitement, then crash, pins and needles.