Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

Why? Because it is completely arbitrary and does not accomplish what is intended.
Assume several scenarios:
1. A visitor from out of state was traveling, went to piss past a purple post. He/she has no idea, thinks that it is some kind of a decoration-bam, wham. Not exactly the same, but in Florida a nice Japanese student visitor was killed through the door when he was simply participating in Halloween celebration.
2. A local drunkard drove his truck past the "signs", went out to do #1 as well...bam..wham!

In both cases, those who do the shootin' would be dragged through the courts, charged with manslaughter, and even IF they prevail, it is DEFINITELY not worth it if lives were not REALLY in danger.
Protect the property? Well, bears and rabbits shit on your property daily with no recourse..well maybe they got shot too from time to time, which is fine.

Additionally, assume scenario #2 happened. If the guy/gal who was shot in this scenario was also local, you would NEVER be safe.
His or her relatives...they got 'them telescope rifles as well, don't ya think?

Again, shooting mere trespassers is not legal in any case. Urban legends, old wives tales and the fact that you would probably get away with it if you weren't completely stupid notwithstanding. It's merely supposed to be a no trespassing sign. Though I do agree that it's really not very good from the point of view of someone who has never heard of this totally non-obvious custom.

By the way, I do recall reading that there were other parts to the Japanese student (though I think that was Texas) that were not being reported (quelle surprise) which, while not making the event particularly better, do shine a different light on things.

If I'm not wrong Texas has a law that let's you kill anyone entering your property uninvited after dark.
If I recall correctly the couple that shot the Japanese student did shout "freeze" several times and he did not stop, and it was after dark.

Edit: i see now that it didn't take place in Texas so that law obviously wasn't applicable.

You are generally correct, however.  Texas does have this law.

And it is a tremendously civilized position in my opinion.  When you live in the country and come under a threat you MUST be able to defend yourself.  No one wants to be in that position.  And no one with any sense wants to carry the fact that they did ultimate hard to another human, even if justified.  But no one is going to be able to come to your aid if you are threatened miles away from any eve rough civilization, so you carry that responsibility yourself.

I have known a lot of country folks.  And they are, for the most part peaceful and kind.  They would help a stranger who came for help. But if you live out in the middle of nowhere and have someone come on your property uninvited (particularly at night), and then they do not respond to commands to halt...  Well there comes a point where the only sensible move is force.  It's known as Castle Law, or Doctrine.  And it is quite sensible in my opinion.

I agree with you, I only wish we had that law in Sweden.

What for? I've been to Sweden it looks literally the most peaceful country in the world. And trust me: you don't want to shoot at people. I served as a police officer for 4 years in 2003-2007. 

I don't want to shoot at people, but I do want the option if needed.
And it's not always as peaceful as it seems. I think it's called the most dangerous country in Europe right now because of all the shootings and bombings. A couple of shootings a day seems to be the norm now, there was one in Malmö yesterday.

https://www.thelocal.se/20210526/sweden-is-the-only-european-country-where-fatal-shootings-are-on-the-rise/

"From January 1st, 2018, to September of this year, Sweden has seen a total of 1,296 shootings, with 169 people killed as a result and another 460 injured."

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2021/11/07/since-2018-sweden-has-seen-nearly-1300-shootings-169-fatal/

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[bitcoinPsycho]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[BitcoinBunny]

 

They are not even hiding it now. But the media is not helping to connect the dots. People should do that themselves.
When's the last time consumers in the UK spent £875 billion buying goods in a year? I reckon that is impossible.



Edit:
Furthermore this also shows how tiny the BTC marketcap currently is and thus how much further it will grow.
When 1 single centralised bank purchases MORE than that in useless "assets" (debt) without even 1 person objecting.

[Torque]

You might disagree with his focus (albeit not completely) on alts, but this is overall a very decent guy (Tyler aka Chico Crypto), imho.
Burned out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_FWxlKRYBc
It's sad to see that being under stress of producing content daily did something quite bad for his mental state.
A very honest, jarring video.
Don't get the "game" get to you.

Getting off a daily grind in bitcoin and kind of moving to a long term picture has been very good for me this cycle vs 2017-2018-first excitement, then crash, pins and needles.

Dang, it really pains me to see guys like this who have a serious addiction to caring so fkn much about crypto TA. Something that they don't even realize is a complete waste of time and life. There's nothing more depressing and soul-crushing for a man than to sit around trying to make sense of and trying to predict something that you have absolutely no control over whatsoever. This is the exact same shit that destroyed the lives of many young wanna-be daytraders of penny stocks back in the last few decades. Many of them ended up in massive bankruptcy and committed suicide.

The guy needs to gtfo of shitcoins, stop looking at the prices, get off the internet, and go do something product with his life. Learn a skill, get a hobby, make friends, get a girlfriend, travel. Whatever. Invest in himself and his future.

There is no "game". There is only your dumb ass for thinking there ever was one. It's all a delusion, dude. smh

[fillippone]

Russian Ban:

Russian cenbank to seek ban on investment in cryptocurrencies, sources say

MOSCOW, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank would like to ban investments in cryptocurrencies in Russia, seeing risks to financial stability in the rising number of crypto transactions, two financial market sources close to the central bank said.

Bitcoin is dead.
Next 24h are critical.
Confirmed.

[d_eddie]

Russian Ban:

Russian cenbank to seek ban on investment in cryptocurrencies, sources say

MOSCOW, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank would like to ban investments in cryptocurrencies in Russia, seeing risks to financial stability in the rising number of crypto transactions, two financial market sources close to the central bank said.

OMG after China, here comes "Russia bans bitcoin"!
What will we do?
It sure is going to be the death of our lil friend.
And all the Russian oligarchs had better sell their stashes for rubles.
Amirite?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[xhomerx10]

Saw on Twitter.

almost perfect, but instead of the sleigh we need the rollercoaster

 It's a Christmas miracle.

 
 

[serveria.com]

Russian Ban:

Russian cenbank to seek ban on investment in cryptocurrencies, sources say

MOSCOW, Dec 16 (Reuters) - The Russian central bank would like to ban investments in cryptocurrencies in Russia, seeing risks to financial stability in the rising number of crypto transactions, two financial market sources close to the central bank said.

Bitcoin is dead.
Next 24h are critical.
Confirmed.

OMG we're screwed this is the end of it... haha NOT! HODLers not affected! 

[tertius993]

They are not even hiding it now. But the media is not helping to connect the dots. People should do that themselves.
When's the last time consumers in the UK spent £875 billion buying goods in a year? I reckon that is impossible.
 
-- image snipped for readability --

Edit:
Furthermore this also shows how tiny the BTC marketcap currently is and thus how much further it will grow.
When 1 single centralised bank purchases MORE than that in useless "assets" (debt) without even 1 person objecting.

£875 Bn is the total* purchases under the scheme since (I think) 2016 when it was instigated.  It's not an annual spend.

Edited to add: probably better to describe it as the limit on purchases they can make, not sure they have actually used it all yet.

[serveria.com]

The central bank is now in talks with market players and experts about a possible ban.

I bet these "market players" and "experts" own crypto themselves so it's very unlikely they will ban anything.  

[d_eddie]

The central bank is now in talks with market players and experts about a possible ban.

I bet these "market players" and "experts" own crypto themselves so it's very unlikely they will ban anything.  

My wild guess? They'll ban easy access for the plebs. U poor? Rubles it is!

(Or depending on your level of sophistication maybe dollars too,  USD safu OK, no risky is money very good!)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

OT: All this talk in the MSM about the "relief rally" in stonks, and how the market "liked" the hawkish Fed news about tapering and potential 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Lol, what bullshit. The stonk market only likes free money, and more of it. They in fact hate tapering, and really hate higher interest rates. And they could give a shit about inflation.

A bunch of shorts got hammered, that is all.

What everyone should be very worried about is when the Fed really *does* start seriously tapering and raising rates. That would start the clock, and mean that another global black swan "event" is right around the corner. By design.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tertius993]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

I'm not sure that Covid really has anything to do with it, I think it is simply that the numeric impact of each halving gets smaller each time, and it gets smaller faster than a simple halving would imply.

If you look at this table:



You can see that at the start if this epoch (3rd to 4th halving) 18.375 million coins had already been issued.  During this epoch only another 1.3 million coins will be issued, so the halving only impacts those 1.3 million coins, and that's just 7.1% of the coins already issued.  Whereas the last halving affected nearly 17% of the coins already issued.  Conversely the next halving will only affect 3.3%.

So although the emission rate halves each time, the impact (i.e. number of coins involved) actually drops off even faster.

Note: I am counting the coins that were issued at the start of the epoch, if you counted from the end it would seem even smaller.

[cygan]

[cAPSLOCK]

OT: All this talk in the MSM about the "relief rally" in stonks, and how the market "liked" the hawkish Fed news about tapering and potential 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Lol, what bullshit. The stonk market only likes free money, and more of it. They in fact hate tapering, and really hate higher interest rates. And they could give a shit about inflation.

A bunch of shorts got hammered, that is all.

What everyone should be very worried about is when the Fed really *does* start seriously tapering and raising rates. That would start the clock, and mean that another global black swan "event" is right around the corner. By design.

It's interesting to see the plan unfold.  

It seems to me THIS phase is mostly focused on supply chain problems, particularly with food supply.  They had no issue with killing us with an engineered virus, and they are going to starve some of us to death next.  The most interesting part is the worldwide UREA shortage being created by China (of course).

This is a chemical which has an underestimated importance.  Who knew the world would run on pig piss?  But it does.  It is a primary ingredient in fertilizer, and ALL modern diesel engines require it to run.  It is not a requirement, in that the engine needs it.  But the engines all now have systems built in that will either shut off the operation altogether, or seriously govern the speed when it is missing.

So this attack has a 2 pronged effect.  It will make food harder/more expensive to produce.  And it will make the delivery of all goods also harder and/or more expensive.  So food production AND supply chains are going to shut down to some extent.  And people will die.

We are JUST beginning to see the first effects of this attack.  But I think it's going to get worse.

I personally drive a little 4 cyl diesel truck.  I bought myself 20 gallons of DEF a little while back when I realized this attack was coming.  So I will be good, for several years... probably overdoing it, but it will at least give western pig farmers the time needed to build the systems needed to produce this ourselves.

[philipma1957]

Once it is done the next step will be hooking up with some PA investors. We need to see how it works out.  All in good time.

What's a PA investor-the one from Pennsylvania?
I know PE (private equity), don't know PA, unless it is, indeed, the state..

We have a spot in Carbondale PA. and the name is due to the coal mines in the area.

You drive around the area and see football field size stacks of low grade slag (shitty yield coal). Over 100 piles of it. Brownish rather than blackish.

We got a guy there we are looking to setup a 800kwatt mine and then supply ½ of it with a solar array. It is a 10 year time line.  most likely it will begin in 2022 or 2023.

I only wish I were 40 not 64 as  I see so much future in this fusing of solar and BTC