Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[tertius993]

I'm seeing a lot of signs of long term weakness and some signs of short term strength in the market.

How strange, personally I'm seeing the complete opposite here, based on price and on-chain data. Price continues to rebound from the 200 Day MA for starters. Even zooming in to the 4hr chart, the buying pressure between the 50 Week MA (rising, bullish) and 200 Day MA (rising, bullish) remains strong. Until this long-term support is convincingly broken, I don't see an argument for long-term weakness, only short-term.



Of course there is a lack of confirmation, given that price is making lower highs and lower lows and remains weak in the short-term, but the long-term remains strong:



I respect the fact your are an OG in this space, with lots of time in the market as well as experience with Bitcoin's price movements, but I think this doesn't help with analysis when currently price is moving in a way that it hasn't really done before. Bitcoin has never taken this long to consolidate after an ATH within a bull market structure, after a parabolic high without a blow-off top, and hasn't had so much positive interaction with the 50 Week MA (if any) within a bull market either. Usually it's an MA to sell once the bear market starts, but in this cycle so far it has been an MA to buy as strong support.

Given the short-term weakness, I don't doubt price could fall lower and re-test the next accumulation level, but otherwise the on-chain data strongly suggests the bottom is already in. Just my two satoshis.

Tend to agree with you over Ognasty

I see an elongated cycle as ½ ing is losing its power to holy-covid

If things are really really really “good” today is like Jan 2017 when btc faltered just a bit

And oct 2020-dec 2021 compare more to jan 2016-jan 2017

if so the blow off top will be close to jan 2023 and 10-20x the current 48k

or not time will tell.

I'm not sure that Covid really has anything to do with it, I think it is simply that the numeric impact of each halving gets smaller each time, and it gets smaller faster than a simple halving would imply.

If you look at this table:



You can see that at the start if this epoch (3rd to 4th halving) 18.375 million coins had already been issued.  During this epoch only another 1.3 million coins will be issued, so the halving only impacts those 1.3 million coins, and that's just 7.1% of the coins already issued.  Whereas the last halving affected nearly 17% of the coins already issued.  Conversely the next halving will only affect 3.3%.

So although the emission rate halves each time, the impact (i.e. number of coins involved) actually drops off even faster.

Note: I am counting the coins that were issued at the start of the epoch, if you counted from the end it would seem even smaller.

[cygan]

[cAPSLOCK]

OT: All this talk in the MSM about the "relief rally" in stonks, and how the market "liked" the hawkish Fed news about tapering and potential 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Lol, what bullshit. The stonk market only likes free money, and more of it. They in fact hate tapering, and really hate higher interest rates. And they could give a shit about inflation.

A bunch of shorts got hammered, that is all.

What everyone should be very worried about is when the Fed really *does* start seriously tapering and raising rates. That would start the clock, and mean that another global black swan "event" is right around the corner. By design.

It's interesting to see the plan unfold.  

It seems to me THIS phase is mostly focused on supply chain problems, particularly with food supply.  They had no issue with killing us with an engineered virus, and they are going to starve some of us to death next.  The most interesting part is the worldwide UREA shortage being created by China (of course).

This is a chemical which has an underestimated importance.  Who knew the world would run on pig piss?  But it does.  It is a primary ingredient in fertilizer, and ALL modern diesel engines require it to run.  It is not a requirement, in that the engine needs it.  But the engines all now have systems built in that will either shut off the operation altogether, or seriously govern the speed when it is missing.

So this attack has a 2 pronged effect.  It will make food harder/more expensive to produce.  And it will make the delivery of all goods also harder and/or more expensive.  So food production AND supply chains are going to shut down to some extent.  And people will die.

We are JUST beginning to see the first effects of this attack.  But I think it's going to get worse.

I personally drive a little 4 cyl diesel truck.  I bought myself 20 gallons of DEF a little while back when I realized this attack was coming.  So I will be good, for several years... probably overdoing it, but it will at least give western pig farmers the time needed to build the systems needed to produce this ourselves.

[philipma1957]

Once it is done the next step will be hooking up with some PA investors. We need to see how it works out.  All in good time.

What's a PA investor-the one from Pennsylvania?
I know PE (private equity), don't know PA, unless it is, indeed, the state..

We have a spot in Carbondale PA. and the name is due to the coal mines in the area.

You drive around the area and see football field size stacks of low grade slag (shitty yield coal). Over 100 piles of it. Brownish rather than blackish.

We got a guy there we are looking to setup a 800kwatt mine and then supply ½ of it with a solar array. It is a 10 year time line.  most likely it will begin in 2022 or 2023.

I only wish I were 40 not 64 as  I see so much future in this fusing of solar and BTC

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

.....attack has a 2 pronged effect.  ............ And people babies will die.

FTFY

[Gachapin]

OT: All this talk in the MSM about the "relief rally" in stonks, and how the market "liked" the hawkish Fed news about tapering and potential 3 rate hikes in 2022.

Lol, what bullshit. The stonk market only likes free money, and more of it. They in fact hate tapering, and really hate higher interest rates. And they could give a shit about inflation.

A bunch of shorts got hammered, that is all.

What everyone should be very worried about is when the Fed really *does* start seriously tapering and raising rates. That would start the clock, and mean that another global black swan "event" is right around the corner. By design.

It's interesting to see the plan unfold.  

It seems to me THIS phase is mostly focused on supply chain problems, particularly with food supply.  They had no issue with killing us with an engineered virus, and they are going to starve some of us to death next.  The most interesting part is the worldwide UREA shortage being created by China (of course).

This is a chemical which has an underestimated importance.  Who knew the world would run on pig piss?  But it does.  It is a primary ingredient in fertilizer, and ALL modern diesel engines require it to run.  It is not a requirement, in that the engine needs it.  But the engines all now have systems built in that will either shut off the operation altogether, or seriously govern the speed when it is missing.

So this attack has a 2 pronged effect.  It will make food harder/more expensive to produce.  And it will make the delivery of all goods also harder and/or more expensive.  So food production AND supply chains are going to shut down to some extent.  And people will die.

We are JUST beginning to see the first effects of this attack.  But I think it's going to get worse.

I personally drive a little 4 cyl diesel truck.  I bought myself 20 gallons of DEF a little while back when I realized this attack was coming.  So I will be good, for several years... probably overdoing it, but it will at least give western pig farmers the time needed to build the systems needed to produce this ourselves.

Totally agree.

However, when I hear people will die, I can't help myself... this song comes to my mind


Remy: People Will Die!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXWhbUUE4ko

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Any idea why she stole his scarf?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[cygan]

it doesn't get any better than this - new monopoly play money spread around the world

[naim027]

Any idea why she stole his scarf?

Just To Hide her face I guess.

[lightfoot]

Man that 50k sized rock is just sitting on Bitcoin for some reason. Weird.

[OutOfMemory]

Man that 50k sized rock is just sitting on Bitcoin for some reason. Weird.

Sub $10k buyers refusing to sell for less than 50k?
It's a matter of time until they're gone forever, Laura. 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Remy: People Will Die!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eXWhbUUE4ko

Blast from the past. Here's one I revisit occasionally...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4nSjPdT788

and another

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-mztxHgYQo

[Hueristic]

You guys gotta check out the latest south park.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1471481880625102854