Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LoyceV]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate

This is what scares me: it's as if policy makers are in full panic mode, meanwhile comforting everyone to sleep.

[Torque]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

Yeah, but what happens when policy makers (via the Fed) are so in control of the markets with infinite, cheap fiat that they are now in the business of deciding when and how to create crashes?

This is what people who sit on the sidelines in fear are missing. In between those planned, short-lived DOWNities will be a whole lot of long, ongoing UPpity. All by design. And people who sit on the sidelines waiting for a crash are getting 10-15% poorer each year.

Personally, I will stick to bitcoin: the fastest horse in the race.

[Biodom]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

Yes, maybe P/E of 30 is weird, but it is less weird when money is being debased at 20% (at least) rate

This is what scares me: it's as if policy makers are in full panic mode, meanwhile comforting everyone to sleep.

Yes, they cannot prevent collapse, but they react very quickly now-see the comparison between the speed of 2007/08 response and 2020.
In 2020 they turned it around fairly quickly.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm not feeling it. Stat. Satoshi Stat!!!!


From November < to > April ... $34K ? ? ?  ..... <<< THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!    

From time to time MIRACLES DO HAPPEN!!!!!!!!!!! , and surely every once in a while, even you Save the RF.. make a decent point...   wwwweeeeeeeeeee

Savetherainforest evolving into gembitz one post at a time?
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

I expect between $440K < > $1.4 Million per BTCiTcoin in the next year.

And that lackey wants another $34K ?? ?? ... WT F ??

I'm not delusional. But some people are. (The main factor I always take into consideration is weather and some nonsense geopolitical rattling between transport-production-infrastructure nonsense.)

And my models say that EVERYTHING IS GOING TO BURN!!!!!!!!!!1      

Oh.. I see that you cannot have two coherent posts in a row...


So understandable.  

You are back to your normal relatively incoherent selfie.

 

By the way, I will concede that there is some value to just throw out some numbers that you believe to be possible.. but you should attempt to give them a wee bit of context rather than asserting them as a kind of given - otherwise you merely come off as if you were quadrupling down on blackjack merely because you ONLY saw a few high cards played so far.. and maybe you are NOT even accounting for the dealer showing a facecard or that there are 4 decks, and you are barely into the first hand from that deck. Yeah.,. sure it could happen.. but still, don't we need a wee bit more fleshing out than that and sure doubling down might be prudent, but quadrupling down is not really within the same odds that justify doubling down.. so in that sense there could be some overplaying of the hand to just "expect" that your odds are good, no?

From November < to > April ... $34K ? ? ?  ..... <<< THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!    

Precisely why I'd see it as perfectly reasonable if $40K support breaks, because everyone previously thought:

From April < to > July ... $64K to $34K ? ? ?  .....

THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

Until it happened of course. Then the idea of:

From April < to > July ... $34K to $350K ? ? ?  .....

THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

And we'd simply be going round in circles around  

And that lackey wants another $34K ?? ?? ... WT F ??

Lies, never said I wanted nor expected it. Try again!

Actually, those are decent points too.. dragonvslinux....

There's a certain amount of value that can come when pushing the price further in one direction (such as down) and holding it for longer than anyone expects, and surely revisiting mid-to-lower $30ks would fit such a scenario.... especially if we are currently in a kind of striking distance... and so for sure, there can be questions regarding if some of these guys pushing for down might end up getting reckt or being successful in what still should be a bull market... and yeah.. it's a bull market until it is not.. so yeah.. sometimes a bull market might end up ending because there is not enough folks ready, willing and able to actually put their money where their mouth is while at the same time some others are losing confidence in UPpity scenarios that had been described... so, I would not rule out those kinds of low tests, either... but we also know that when more and more of us start anticipating a kind of low ball test, then then the selling, shorting, failure/refusal to buy or whatever other downward bets can end up providing some fuel for UP, too...

[El duderino_]

[shahzadafzal]

New movie just for BTC lovers don’t miss… Watch it now….

https://twitter.com/naiiveclub/status/1471903022993186817?s=21

[El duderino_]

Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.

[JayJuanGee]

From November < to > April ... $34K ? ? ?  ..... <<< THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!    

Precisely why I'd see it as perfectly reasonable if $40K support breaks, because everyone previously thought:

From April < to > July ... $64K to $34K ? ? ?  .....

THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

Until it happened of course. Then the idea of:

From April < to > July ... $34K to $350K ? ? ?  .....

THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

And we'd simply be going round in circles around  

And that lackey wants another $34K ?? ?? ... WT F ??

Lies, never said I wanted nor expected it. Try again!

Man... U need help.

I usually when I come into conclusions like this, is because I take logical aspects into consideration.

Now that's some good humor there..

In other words, we know that you would not know consistent logical application, even if it slapped you in the face.

 

I'm wasting my breath or my k3yboard by tryin go tell u that it's religious zealoutry wha tu'r on .  <<<< U f^ckjing see that sh!t... I'm not even complying with my ghands on what they want and what I give. L)

^ I can barely rwitd e anydxbghting cuz I can't..a ,sgb  hwhen I try to go agains the grahain.      


^^^^
*edit(0):  And that's folks how BTCiTcoin works!!!

Yeah.. that happens to me all the time.. My keyboard just starts typing, and there is nothing that I can do about it.  I hate when that happens.

Savetherainforest evolving into gembitz one post at a time?
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

I expect between $440K < > $1.4 Million per BTCiTcoin in the next year.

No chance.

Quoted for posterity.

At this moment, after reading your post tertius993, I am feeling subconsciously delusional... too.

In my yesterday's updated chartening of probability assignments, I have assigned supra $450k listed as about 14.5% in the whole of the chart (adding up the numbers).. and of course, I have gradients of different percent assignments to each of the ranges that get increasingly smaller as the price goes up with even a 0.5% assignment for supra $1.5million.. hory sheit... horey sheit...

Fuck... many of us bulls (or is it bull wannabes?) express varying levels of delusion, no?

[cAPSLOCK]

Man... U need help.

I usually when I come into conclusions like this, is because I take logical aspects into consideration.

I'm wasting my breath or my k3yboard by tryin go tell u that it's religious zealoutry wha tu'r on .  <<<< U f^ckjing see that sh!t... I'm not even complying with my ghands on what they want and what I give. L)

^ I can barely rwitd e anydxbghting cuz I can't..a ,sgb  hwhen I try to go agains the grahain.      

^^^^
*edit(0):  And that's folks how BTCiTcoin works!!!

So... I have you on ignore because it seem to me that you are someone who is hanging on to reality by a tiny thread, and most of what you say is either nonsense or annoying.

But like all on my (fairly short) ignore list, now and then I click the "show" button just to make sure that I have not misjudged... and from time to time decide I have.

The only reason I am considering un-ignoring you is I am honestly concerned about you.  Something is terribly wrong.   Drugs, perhaps?  Mental illness?  Either something like that or you are a very odd, and ineffective troll.

So back on the list you go!

But seriously.  Do you need to get help?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[savetherainforest]

Man... U need help.

I usually when I come into conclusions like this, is because I take logical aspects into consideration.

I'm wasting my breath or my k3yboard by tryin go tell u that it's religious zealoutry wha tu'r on .  <<<< U f^ckjing see that sh!t... I'm not even complying with my ghands on what they want and what I give. L)

^ I can barely rwitd e anydxbghting cuz I can't..a ,sgb  hwhen I try to go agains the grahain.      

^^^^
*edit(0):  And that's folks how BTCiTcoin works!!!

So... I have you on ignore because it seem to me that you are someone who is hanging on to reality by a tiny thread, and most of what you say is either nonsense or annoying.

But like all on my (fairly short) ignore list, now and then I click the "show" button just to make sure that I have not misjudged... and from time to time decide I have.

The only reason I am considering un-ignoring you is I am honestly concerned about you.  Something is terribly wrong.   Drugs, perhaps?  Mental illness?  Either something like that or you are a very odd, and ineffective troll.

So back on the list you go!

But seriously.  Do you need to get help?

I'm not worried for me. I'm kinda giving no f^cks about everything.... I'm trapped in my own bubble of unicorns sh!tting candy & top noch 50+ year single malt.

I worry about the sane ones..... them 90% of Earth pop that need help. At least if they would have had some allusions for delusions. But for some is really hard to snap out of it and rly enjoy some little bits & pieces of delusional in their life.

And some of you know I won't wait till BTCiTcoin reaches $1Trillion per piece, cuz that will take like 50 years. But I will enjoy like selling 1% per year and I will do just fine... 4ever!!!


*edit(0): And some of you are mad at me cuz I can flip you off and I can tell you F^ck Off without giving a f^ck... and that bothers some of you for some reason...          

*edit(1): And the only single person on this forum that bothers me a bit is JJG. But not because I hate or something dumb like that. But because I envy him. I envy his relentlessness to post and his dedication for madness. Cuz I see that he is also in his own f^cking bubble, and that is cute!        

[HI-TEC99]

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.

Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?

No.

[Hueristic]

and I purchased $50 from PayPal today.

My PayPal holdings are about $2400 and I am about 400 ahead. If we tank to say 32k-36K I would be -100 or -200 loss.

  My PayPal BTC will be in the red. Since it is always paid in $usd It presents a possible  way to free cash and get a capital gains offset against my 18000 usd worth sold at 61-67k. Such fun.

I get to hodl and sell at the same time.

Lets go dip.

Hah, this just reminded me of a email I got a couple of days ago.

𝖧𝗂 *me*,

𝖸𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝗁𝖺𝗌 𝖻𝖾𝖾𝗇 𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗋𝖺𝗋𝗂𝗅𝗒 𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗍𝗋𝗂𝖼𝗍𝖾𝖽.

𝖸𝗈𝗎 𝗐𝖾𝗋𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝖼𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗅𝗒 𝖺𝗌𝗄𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝖺𝗄𝖾 𝖺𝗇 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗈𝗇 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗂𝗍 𝗅𝗈𝗈𝗄𝗌 𝗅𝗂𝗄𝖾 𝗐𝖾 𝖽𝗂𝖽𝗇'𝗍 𝗋𝖾𝖼𝖾𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝖺 𝗋𝖾𝗊𝗎𝖾𝗌𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗉𝗈𝗇𝗌𝖾. 𝖶𝖾 𝗁𝖺𝗏𝖾 𝖿𝗈𝗎𝗇𝖽 𝗌𝗎𝗌𝗉𝗂𝖼𝗂𝗈𝗎𝗌 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗏𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗈𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗋𝖾𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖼𝖺𝗋𝖽 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍. 𝖸𝗈𝗎 𝗆𝗎𝗌𝗍 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝗂𝖽𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗍𝗈 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗒𝗈𝗎 𝖺𝗋𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗐𝗇𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗋𝖾𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖼𝖺𝗋𝖽.

𝖳𝗈 𝗆𝖺𝗂𝗇𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗇 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝗌𝖾𝖼𝗎𝗋𝗂𝗍𝗒, 𝗉𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝗏𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖽𝗈𝖼𝗎𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝗂𝖽𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗂𝗍𝗒. 𝖶𝖾'𝗏𝖾 𝖺𝗅𝗌𝗈 𝗂𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗌𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗋𝖺𝗋𝗒 𝗅𝗂𝗆𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝗈𝗇 𝖼𝖾𝗋𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗇 𝖿𝖾𝖺𝗍𝗎𝗋𝖾𝗌 𝗈𝗇 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍.

𝖫𝗈𝗀𝗂𝗇 𝗍𝗈 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗉𝖾𝗋𝖿𝗈𝗋𝗆 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝗊𝗎𝗂𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝖾𝗉𝗌.

The Suspicious activity is that they cannot access it!

Friggin thiefs always trying to hit accounts without permission and then its a nightmare to put a stop to it.

Imagine having to actually pay the bank for every single entity you want to NOT have access to your funds!

Well that is the way it works now.


I can't wait till I can completely lose these fucking bankers and pay ALL my bills directly.

It should be illegal for places not to accept cash for bills, I thought that it was but apparently that has changed.

[savetherainforest]

Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.

That man is weak.      


When I tried to become a breatharian..... I had different challenges. One of them was to not eat for a certain amount of days and stay just with water, and try to cut water out as much as possible and get my water from the air I breathe. But there was a boundary I hit, and that was the burnt jet fuel from the higher atmosphere was interfering with my attunement.

Also another test was to sit in the dark alone for a long period of time. Or not talking or interacting with anyone for 1-2 weeks straight. (that posed another problem... my throat started to soar and vocal cords started degrading.... I think I should have started singing, but I don't like singing... )

Anyway.... prison is easy for some. And only a bored mind would find it hard to bear. But I guess I would sentence prison for a lot of bored minds if I had a chance... not a physical one 100%, but something to make them accept their pain and then treasure it.            

[Hueristic]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-regulator-says-credit-unions-214707693.html

“This includes facilitating member relationships with third parties that allow FICU members to buy, sell and hold various uninsured digital assets with the third-party provider outside of the FICU,” according to the statement from the NCUA. The NCUA is a U.S. regulator that oversees credit unions, acting as a counterpart to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates national banks.

Now if I can only find a CU that hasn't been "acquired" yet.

The two I have used in the past were both taken over and banking shenanigans ensued.

[Hueristic]

*full on retard*

Just an FYI, I've had you on ignore since you showed your moronic face around here but there are others that have spent the effort to engage your drivel and help you but it looks like you are doing your absolute best to get the last ones to put you on ignore.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6WHBO_Qc-Q

[OutOfMemory]

Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.

That man is weak.      

(...more stupid bullshit...)

3000 days.
And you are comparing that to two weeks of no social interaction, "long time" in the dark and some fasting period?

Dude, whatever you shoot up your nose, vein or butthole, do a bit less of it!
"Trying to become a breatharian" involves recognizing and handling your ego.
You clearly failed that, too.

But you made me remember how contempt feels like. Let me thank you for that.



For the rest of the WO, i'm out for today, watching an action movie about some sporty gals slaying some badasses, exclusively with the missus.
Don't enjoy the price action at all (because i'm out of lump sum fiat atm).

Here's something to enjoy for photography lovers:


I know, it's getting odd slowly, but at this time of the year there is not much more to shoot than the sea of fog and icy landscapes.
Today i saw the sun shining low through a narrow band of trees, onto a slim cloud of fog, in the form of dozens of glowing stripes of light.
When i got there with the drone (slightly over 4 minutes of flight time) it was already over, the fog has passed by.
The most beautiful scene i have seen in a while.
Bad luck. Next time  

[JayJuanGee]

quote Arriemoller

Does anyone have a link?


https://www.amazon.com/Bitcoin-Crypto-Christmas-Sweater-T-shirt/dp/B07KR4CN73

Something close

Thanks!

It is a cotton tee shirt not a sweater but I purchased a royal blue one.


BTW. buy the dip and hodl!

I still have my $50 a day at coinbase

and I purchased $50 from PayPal today.

My PayPal holdings are about $2400 and I am about 400 ahead. If we tank to say 32k-36K I would be -100 or -200 loss.

  My PayPal BTC will be in the red. Since it is always paid in $usd It presents a possible  way to free cash and get a capital gains offset against my 18000 usd worth sold at 61-67k. Such fun.

I get to hodl and sell at the same time.

Lets go dip.

I hate to stalk you too much philip... or maybe I do...


I remember you starting the paypal thread right when Paypal had allowed for the purchasing of BTC through their app which was on October 21, 2020.. so when I saw your current rendition of ONLY having in the ballpark of $400 profits from a $2k investment (around 20% profits)... I was starting to consider that you had underperformed a strict DCA strategy which would have gotten you about 63% profits (presuming an investment of $33 per week that would get you to $2k invested in the past 14-ish months)... but then i noticed that the DCAbtc.com numbers are not exactly correct, and I had noticed those kinds of inconsistencies with the website before..... so sure sometimes our ballpark is not correct.. and sure maybe you are in the ballpark of an acceptable DCA profits level.
 
Actually, sometimes the very short-term investing that use DCA can be all over the place, and in that respect I tend a find a preference to at least have a minimum of a four-year timeline when looking at that data (or trying to back test).. .. So a strict 4-year DCA strategy at $33 per week would put you at $6,897 invested and nearly 0.74 BTC, which would be about a 5.31x price appreciation.. and I see that again the dcabtc.com website is not giving me exactly accurate numbers.. but we can still get some ideas in regards to the longer term DCA strategies allowing for larger numbers. and even consistency so.. and surely any of us willing to be guinea pigs are able to show our actual numbers,** even if mistakes might be made along the way too.

**By the way, when I suggest giving actual numbers, I suggest talking about percentages rather than actual numbers, but sometimes actual numbers can be helpful too.. so long as there might not be OPsec concerns.

Regarding your cheering for "Let's go dip".. that's another story that a real HODLer should not be cheering for.. unless s/he/it is way underallocated (especially if been in bitcoin for at least 4 years) and made a whole hell of a lot of mistakes... .. but hey I will leave that angle for now.

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.

Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better!
Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:

(image source)

The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes.

You seem to be making some other points Loyce and likely do not apply too well to bitcoin's history.. at best maybe you could proclaim on a 2-3 year timeline it would have been better to wait (even in bitcoin), but so frequently those ideas about waiting do not play out too well (except when monday morning quarter backing the matter)....

In other words, there are a lot of us in bitcoin who proclaim that peeps need to get the fuck in, and the price does not matter too much in terms of initially getting in.. Once you are in, then you might be able to tweak around on the margins the extent that you are in or various kinds of timing and the mix of strategies that might work beyond pure DCA.. so pure DCA has historically been amongst the best of strategies in BTC and sure it is possible that supplementing with lump sum investing and also buying on dips would have contributed to a bit of a better performance than a pure DCA strategy.. but at the same time, fuck that nonsense about trying to time and wait and blah blah blah.. get the fuck started.. and then figure out some of those other details about possible timing and possible strategic lump summing it or buying on dips later.

Then once you are in and you have been in for a while (talking about BTC here.. focus.. focus.. focus).... then it is going to be quite likely that your options have increased.. and time in the market is going to be better than timing the market.. so 4 years is likely better than 2 years and 10 years is likely better than 4 years etc etc etc.. we have not had too many folks who are more than 10 years (Jimbo, maybe?).. but mine is 8 years and it feels pretty damned good in terms of having more options and there is really no solid evidence to suggest that waiting is going to be helpful in bitcoin.. It seems that the actors and act as soon as possible have been proven to be right, and likely will continue to be right, especially if your timeline is long enough.. 4 years, 10 years or even longer.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Farmer Bill]

Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.

That man is weak.      


When I tried to become a breatharian..... I had different challenges. One of them was to not eat for a certain amount of days and stay just with water, and try to cut water out as much as possible and get my water from the air I breathe. But there was a boundary I hit, and that was the burnt jet fuel from the higher atmosphere was interfering with my attunement.

Also another test was to sit in the dark alone for a long period of time. Or not talking or interacting with anyone for 1-2 weeks straight. (that posed another problem... my throat started to soar and vocal cords started degrading.... I think I should have started singing, but I don't like singing... )

Anyway.... prison is easy for some. And only a bored mind would find it hard to bear. But I guess I would sentence prison for a lot of bored minds if I had a chance... not a physical one 100%, but something to make them accept their pain and then treasure it.            

Prison is so easy for guys like you, as long as you have a big jar of Vaseline.

I think you are losing your grip (on reality) bud.