is it going to be a mere 2x to 4x from here or do we end up having another 8x to 30x from here... either scenario could end up playing out..
I've only got small needs, so I'd settle for a modest 8x from here.
At inflation rates of today... indeed a current 8x will be modest and good to maintain basic needs
We know that there has been some decent discussion regarding what should be considered entry-level fuck you status, so I do continue to consider the topic of entry-level fuck you status, and historically, there has been some acceptance that $1 million had been an acceptable target-level... and sure maybe even in 2010 to 2014 time-frame, there might have been some reasonable abilities for quite a few normies to be able to get by on less than $1 million as their accumulated principle.. at least for the entry-level of presuming some kind of ability to live reasonably off of $3,333 in passive income per month.
For sure, at some point after March 2020, it became theoretically likely that we were going to need to double the entry-level amount to $2 million, and there has been quite a bit of evidence to support that the doubling of the entry-level was justified.. even though somethings did not double in price, but surely quite a few other things have doubled in price - and surely maybe overall on the average, we might be able to still get by with some kind of budget that is merely 15% to 25% greater (per year) than our prior to March 2020 budget.. but then there can still be questions regarding why do we need to suffer from our accustomed life-style.. why do we need to cut back on luxury goods, whether hookers, lambos, blow or whether eating out and traveling...
So, even after so much pondering on the topic of how much value do we need to get to entry-level fuck you status, I still consider that for now, a doubling of the entry-level fuck you status to $2 million is likely sufficient.. but there has to be a kind of diligence that will remain to be built into any formula regarding how much does any total investment portfolio have to continue to appreciate in value on an annual basis merely to just keep up with cost of living within our previously accustomed lifestyle, and if we are wanting to increase our spending into more luxury living, then we would have to consider how some goods and services have inflated in costs higher than other kinds of items...
So.. today we could consider entry level fuck you status to be $2million... but that $2million in value would not be worth $2 million in early 2023 dollars.. so that same value would have reduced to something like $1.6 million in late 2021 dollars (if we were using 20% depreciation).. It would not necessarily mean that we have to get out of fuck you status, but our overall portfolio (absent whatever we withdraw) has to keep up in value too and to account for some perhaps ongoing seemingly outrageous inflation along the way (as possibilities). I personally consider myself to be fortunate because my own system includes the 208-week moving average as its foundational value calculation, yet any of us BTC HODLers are going to be potentially advantaged by having BTC in our investment portfolio, but we still have to be careful that do not end up trying to go into fuck you status too soon and based on miscalculations of what it would take to sufficiently maintain the value of our overall investment portfolio and our ability to draw from it, in the event that we are considering ourselves to have transitioned into fuck you status.
Perhaps this is part of the reason that some of us want to gravitate towards feeling that we need higher levels of performance on the amount that BTC values appreciate from here - even if we have already gotten 3x to 7x appreciation in the past year and a half and even though we are still gravitating in around a 5x price appreciation from that September 2020 price point (of $10k).
We can recognize increases in prices in some items that are way greater than the increases in the prices of other items. For example, there are certain kinds of non-luxury items that might NOT have gone up in prive very much, relatively speaking - let's just take fake meat for example, that some folks might proclaim that you might be able to substitute for real meat, but who the hell should really be believing that kind of nonsense and eating that kind of crap (yeah I know people really believe that food is food and blah blah blah soy is good for you.. I have met these kinds of people in real life), and really believing that they are getting anything even close to the same value..
There is a lot of propaganda to promote fake foods as if they were real foods, and of course, there are likely other circumstances in which value has been shrinking but being sold as if it were the same level of value and quality as previously.
Another thing is that for me, I doubt that we really need to start our calculation of appreciated the value of our investment portfolio as if we were starting today with BTC in the $50k price range, and then expect that we have to have a 2x or even 8x price appreciation from here in order to keep up with inflation.
Even though there is some ambiguity regarding what the BTC price might have been around March 2020, personally, based on subsequent happenings and even ease of calculations, I am content with using $10k as our BTC price foundation for March 2020 to assess our value of investment portfolio, and even with that way of assessing BTC value, we have already had 3x to 7x price appreciation with our BTC price currently giving us a value that is floating in the 5x range.. so we are not really in a bad place when it comes to how our BTC has performed since money printer go bbbbbbrrrrrrr has gone way further into crazy land (some are calling these matters clown world).
Call me a poo poo-er of your idea dude, but for me, it just does not seem reasonable to suggest that we have to have higher BTC price appreciation levels at this point just to keep up, even though I do agree with some of the sentiment that we are likely being lied to in respect to the extent to which we might even be able to keep up with something like 10% to 25% per year in appreciation of various aspects of our investment portfolio (or even our income) in the event that we did not have some or a lot of our value in BTC.
So in that sense if we did not have BTC, then we are surely likely NOT to be keeping up with the rises in prices. Few normies are keeping up these days and under the current circumstances, even if some peeps might perceive that they are keeping up.
In some sense, we might be talking about different things but still it seems fairly unambiguously clear that if any of us have had any kinds of meaningful amounts of value invested in BTC - even 10% to 25% of our total investment portfolio value invested in BTC in about March 2020 or even reaching that level of investment as late as September 2020, then we would have been able to way the hell out perform other kinds of traditional investments
(those investments not including BTC) and even to keep up with inflation that may have been anywhere in the range of 10% to 25% per year and surely maybe even inflation that ended up being in the 50% per year... but holy fuck, I doubt that overall the expenses of the vast majority of us had really been going up very much higher than even 25% per year even though I had noticed that some kinds of restaurants and other goods and services do seem to be in the higher end of the range, maybe even doubling in price since March 2020.
I doubt that we are disagreeing in any kind of meaningful way dude, but instead that I may well be wanting to reframe some of the aspects in terms of whether we might consider if we are keeping up or exceeding performance of those who do not have BTC in their holdings... and if we really need any kind of substantial BTC price appreciation just to keep up with the performance of nonBTCers because BTC HODLers are likely already in a pretty decent place if we have been largely established in BTC since September 2020 or earlier..
but if we are just coming into BTC after September 2020, then it is quite likely that some of our calculations are going to be different from the earlier adopters because it would not be so reasonable to have had gotten into BTC with a $10k or lower base starting point (cost per BTC)... and even if I am saying that those post September 2020 entrants into BTC are starting off with higher BTC price calculation points, they are still likely going to end up in a very decently good position in the years to come so long as they hold onto their BTC for one or two price cycles
(referring to 4-year cycles) - and maybe similar to us earlier entrants into BTC (relatively speaking) if given a similar passage of time.
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