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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26389138 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
shahzadafzal
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December 17, 2021, 06:47:16 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

New movie just for BTC lovers don’t miss… Watch it now….

https://twitter.com/naiiveclub/status/1471903022993186817?s=21
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December 17, 2021, 06:48:59 PM
Merited by Farmer Bill (2), JayJuanGee (1)



Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.
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December 17, 2021, 06:50:23 PM

From November < to > April ... $34K ? ? ?  ..... <<< THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

Precisely why I'd see it as perfectly reasonable if $40K support breaks, because everyone previously thought:

From April < to > July ... $64K to $34K ? ? ?  .....

Quote
THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

Until it happened of course. Then the idea of:

From April < to > July ... $34K to $350K ? ? ?  .....

Quote
THAT LITERALLY IS RETARDED AND RIDICULOUS!!!

And we'd simply be going round in circles around  Wink

And that lackey wants another $34K ?? ?? ... WT F ?? Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

Lies, never said I wanted nor expected it. Try again!

Man... U need help. Smiley

I usually when I come into conclusions like this, is because I take logical aspects into consideration.

Now that's some good humor there..

In other words, we know that you would not know consistent logical application, even if it slapped you in the face.

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

I'm wasting my breath or my k3yboard by tryin go tell u that it's religious zealoutry wha tu'r on .  <<<< U f^ckjing see that sh!t... I'm not even complying with my ghands on what they want and what I give. L) Smiley Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

^ I can barely rwitd e anydxbghting cuz I can't..a ,sgb  hwhen I try to go agains the grahain. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


^^^^
*edit(0):  And that's folks how BTCiTcoin works!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


Yeah.. that happens to me all the time.. My keyboard just starts typing, and there is nothing that I can do about it.  I hate when that happens.

Savetherainforest evolving into gembitz one post at a time?
WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

I expect between $440K < > $1.4 Million per BTCiTcoin in the next year.


No chance.

Quoted for posterity.

At this moment, after reading your post tertius993, I am feeling subconsciously delusional... too.

In my yesterday's updated chartening of probability assignments, I have assigned supra $450k listed as about 14.5% in the whole of the chart (adding up the numbers).. and of course, I have gradients of different percent assignments to each of the ranges that get increasingly smaller as the price goes up with even a 0.5% assignment for supra $1.5million.. hory sheit... horey sheit...

Fuck... many of us bulls (or is it bull wannabes?) express varying levels of delusion, no?
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December 17, 2021, 06:58:01 PM

Man... U need help. Smiley

I usually when I come into conclusions like this, is because I take logical aspects into consideration.

I'm wasting my breath or my k3yboard by tryin go tell u that it's religious zealoutry wha tu'r on .  <<<< U f^ckjing see that sh!t... I'm not even complying with my ghands on what they want and what I give. L) Smiley Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

^ I can barely rwitd e anydxbghting cuz I can't..a ,sgb  hwhen I try to go agains the grahain. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

^^^^
*edit(0):  And that's folks how BTCiTcoin works!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


So... I have you on ignore because it seem to me that you are someone who is hanging on to reality by a tiny thread, and most of what you say is either nonsense or annoying.

But like all on my (fairly short) ignore list, now and then I click the "show" button just to make sure that I have not misjudged... and from time to time decide I have.

The only reason I am considering un-ignoring you is I am honestly concerned about you.  Something is terribly wrong.   Drugs, perhaps?  Mental illness?  Either something like that or you are a very odd, and ineffective troll.

So back on the list you go!

But seriously.  Do you need to get help?
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December 17, 2021, 07:01:28 PM


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December 17, 2021, 07:10:46 PM

Man... U need help. Smiley

I usually when I come into conclusions like this, is because I take logical aspects into consideration.

I'm wasting my breath or my k3yboard by tryin go tell u that it's religious zealoutry wha tu'r on .  <<<< U f^ckjing see that sh!t... I'm not even complying with my ghands on what they want and what I give. L) Smiley Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

^ I can barely rwitd e anydxbghting cuz I can't..a ,sgb  hwhen I try to go agains the grahain. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

^^^^
*edit(0):  And that's folks how BTCiTcoin works!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


So... I have you on ignore because it seem to me that you are someone who is hanging on to reality by a tiny thread, and most of what you say is either nonsense or annoying.

But like all on my (fairly short) ignore list, now and then I click the "show" button just to make sure that I have not misjudged... and from time to time decide I have.

The only reason I am considering un-ignoring you is I am honestly concerned about you.  Something is terribly wrong.   Drugs, perhaps?  Mental illness?  Either something like that or you are a very odd, and ineffective troll.

So back on the list you go!

But seriously.  Do you need to get help?

I'm not worried for me. I'm kinda giving no f^cks about everything.... I'm trapped in my own bubble of unicorns sh!tting candy & top noch 50+ year single malt.

I worry about the sane ones..... them 90% of Earth pop that need help. At least if they would have had some allusions for delusions. But for some is really hard to snap out of it and rly enjoy some little bits & pieces of delusional in their life. Smiley

And some of you know I won't wait till BTCiTcoin reaches $1Trillion per piece, cuz that will take like 50 years. But I will enjoy like selling 1% per year and I will do just fine... 4ever!!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy


*edit(0): And some of you are mad at me cuz I can flip you off and I can tell you F^ck Off without giving a f^ck... and that bothers some of you for some reason... Tongue Tongue  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes   Grin  Cheesy  Cheesy

*edit(1): And the only single person on this forum that bothers me a bit is JJG. But not because I hate or something dumb like that. But because I envy him. I envy his relentlessness to post and his dedication for madness. Cuz I see that he is also in his own f^cking bubble, and that is cute! Tongue Cheesy  Cool Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Cheesy  Cheesy
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December 17, 2021, 07:15:31 PM

However, there is a thought out there that 2008 experience had informed the policy makers that you CANNOT collapse the collateral layer (stocks, bonds, RE) without a danger that the whole thing utterly collapses.
Didn't history teach us policy makers can't prevent market crashes?


No.




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December 17, 2021, 07:16:56 PM


and I purchased $50 from PayPal today.

My PayPal holdings are about $2400 and I am about 400 ahead. If we tank to say 32k-36K I would be -100 or -200 loss.

  My PayPal BTC will be in the red. Since it is always paid in $usd It presents a possible  way to free cash and get a capital gains offset against my 18000 usd worth sold at 61-67k. Such fun.

I get to hodl and sell at the same time.

Lets go dip.

Hah, this just reminded me of a email I got a couple of days ago.

Quote
𝖧𝗂 *me*,

𝖸𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝗁𝖺𝗌 𝖻𝖾𝖾𝗇 𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗋𝖺𝗋𝗂𝗅𝗒 𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗍𝗋𝗂𝖼𝗍𝖾𝖽.

𝖸𝗈𝗎 𝗐𝖾𝗋𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝖼𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗅𝗒 𝖺𝗌𝗄𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝗍𝖺𝗄𝖾 𝖺𝗇 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗈𝗇 𝗈𝗇 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗂𝗍 𝗅𝗈𝗈𝗄𝗌 𝗅𝗂𝗄𝖾 𝗐𝖾 𝖽𝗂𝖽𝗇'𝗍 𝗋𝖾𝖼𝖾𝗂𝗏𝖾 𝖺 𝗋𝖾𝗊𝗎𝖾𝗌𝗍𝖾𝖽 𝗋𝖾𝗌𝗉𝗈𝗇𝗌𝖾. 𝖶𝖾 𝗁𝖺𝗏𝖾 𝖿𝗈𝗎𝗇𝖽 𝗌𝗎𝗌𝗉𝗂𝖼𝗂𝗈𝗎𝗌 𝖺𝖼𝗍𝗂𝗏𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗈𝗇 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗋𝖾𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖼𝖺𝗋𝖽 𝗅𝗂𝗇𝗄𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝗈 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍. 𝖸𝗈𝗎 𝗆𝗎𝗌𝗍 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝗂𝖽𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗂𝗍𝗒 𝗍𝗈 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆 𝗍𝗁𝖺𝗍 𝗒𝗈𝗎 𝖺𝗋𝖾 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗈𝗐𝗇𝖾𝗋 𝗈𝖿 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝖼𝗋𝖾𝖽𝗂𝗍 𝖼𝖺𝗋𝖽.

𝖳𝗈 𝗆𝖺𝗂𝗇𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗇 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝗌𝖾𝖼𝗎𝗋𝗂𝗍𝗒, 𝗉𝗅𝖾𝖺𝗌𝖾 𝗉𝗋𝗈𝗏𝗂𝖽𝖾 𝖽𝗈𝖼𝗎𝗆𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗌 𝖼𝗈𝗇𝖿𝗂𝗋𝗆𝗂𝗇𝗀 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝗂𝖽𝖾𝗇𝗍𝗂𝗍𝗒. 𝖶𝖾'𝗏𝖾 𝖺𝗅𝗌𝗈 𝗂𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗌𝖾𝖽 𝗍𝖾𝗆𝗉𝗈𝗋𝖺𝗋𝗒 𝗅𝗂𝗆𝗂𝗍𝗌 𝗈𝗇 𝖼𝖾𝗋𝗍𝖺𝗂𝗇 𝖿𝖾𝖺𝗍𝗎𝗋𝖾𝗌 𝗈𝗇 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍.

𝖫𝗈𝗀𝗂𝗇 𝗍𝗈 𝗒𝗈𝗎𝗋 𝖯𝖺𝗒𝖯𝖺𝗅 𝖺𝖼𝖼𝗈𝗎𝗇𝗍 𝖺𝗇𝖽 𝗉𝖾𝗋𝖿𝗈𝗋𝗆 𝗍𝗁𝖾 𝗋𝖾𝗊𝗎𝗂𝗋𝖾𝖽 𝗌𝗍𝖾𝗉𝗌.

The Suspicious activity is that they cannot access it!

Friggin thiefs always trying to hit accounts without permission and then its a nightmare to put a stop to it.

Imagine having to actually pay the bank for every single entity you want to NOT have access to your funds!

Well that is the way it works now.


I can't wait till I can completely lose these fucking bankers and pay ALL my bills directly.

It should be illegal for places not to accept cash for bills, I thought that it was but apparently that has changed.
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December 17, 2021, 07:32:43 PM



Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.


That man is weak.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


When I tried to become a breatharian..... I had different challenges. One of them was to not eat for a certain amount of days and stay just with water, and try to cut water out as much as possible and get my water from the air I breathe. But there was a boundary I hit, and that was the burnt jet fuel from the higher atmosphere was interfering with my attunement.

Also another test was to sit in the dark alone for a long period of time. Or not talking or interacting with anyone for 1-2 weeks straight. (that posed another problem... my throat started to soar and vocal cords started degrading.... I think I should have started singing, but I don't like singing... Cheesy Cheesy )

Anyway.... prison is easy for some. And only a bored mind would find it hard to bear. But I guess I would sentence prison for a lot of bored minds if I had a chance... not a physical one 100%, but something to make them accept their pain and then treasure it. Smiley  Cool  Grin  Roll Eyes  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy
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December 17, 2021, 07:36:33 PM
Merited by JayJuanGee (2)

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/federal-regulator-says-credit-unions-214707693.html

Quote
“This includes facilitating member relationships with third parties that allow FICU members to buy, sell and hold various uninsured digital assets with the third-party provider outside of the FICU,” according to the statement from the NCUA. The NCUA is a U.S. regulator that oversees credit unions, acting as a counterpart to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC), which regulates national banks.


Now if I can only find a CU that hasn't been "acquired" yet.

The two I have used in the past were both taken over and banking shenanigans ensued.
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December 17, 2021, 07:40:49 PM

*full on retard*

Just an FYI, I've had you on ignore since you showed your moronic face around here but there are others that have spent the effort to engage your drivel and help you but it looks like you are doing your absolute best to get the last ones to put you on ignore.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X6WHBO_Qc-Q
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December 17, 2021, 07:46:02 PM
Last edit: December 17, 2021, 08:01:30 PM by OutOfMemory
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)



Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.


That man is weak.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

(...more stupid bullshit...)



3000 days.
And you are comparing that to two weeks of no social interaction, "long time" in the dark and some fasting period?

Dude, whatever you shoot up your nose, vein or butthole, do a bit less of it!
"Trying to become a breatharian" involves recognizing and handling your ego.
You clearly failed that, too.

But you made me remember how contempt feels like. Let me thank you for that.




For the rest of the WO, i'm out for today, watching an action movie about some sporty gals slaying some badasses, exclusively with the missus.
Don't enjoy the price action at all (because i'm out of lump sum fiat atm).

Here's something to enjoy for photography lovers:


I know, it's getting odd slowly, but at this time of the year there is not much more to shoot than the sea of fog and icy landscapes.
Today i saw the sun shining low through a narrow band of trees, onto a slim cloud of fog, in the form of dozens of glowing stripes of light.
When i got there with the drone (slightly over 4 minutes of flight time) it was already over, the fog has passed by.
The most beautiful scene i have seen in a while.
Bad luck. Next time  Grin
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December 17, 2021, 07:59:51 PM


It is a cotton tee shirt not a sweater but I purchased a royal blue one.


BTW. buy the dip and hodl!

I still have my $50 a day at coinbase

and I purchased $50 from PayPal today.

My PayPal holdings are about $2400 and I am about 400 ahead. If we tank to say 32k-36K I would be -100 or -200 loss.

  My PayPal BTC will be in the red. Since it is always paid in $usd It presents a possible  way to free cash and get a capital gains offset against my 18000 usd worth sold at 61-67k. Such fun.

I get to hodl and sell at the same time.

Lets go dip.

I hate to stalk you too much philip... or maybe I do...


I remember you starting the paypal thread right when Paypal had allowed for the purchasing of BTC through their app which was on October 21, 2020.. so when I saw your current rendition of ONLY having in the ballpark of $400 profits from a $2k investment (around 20% profits)... I was starting to consider that you had underperformed a strict DCA strategy which would have gotten you about 63% profits (presuming an investment of $33 per week that would get you to $2k invested in the past 14-ish months)... but then i noticed that the DCAbtc.com numbers are not exactly correct, and I had noticed those kinds of inconsistencies with the website before..... so sure sometimes our ballpark is not correct.. and sure maybe you are in the ballpark of an acceptable DCA profits level.
 
Actually, sometimes the very short-term investing that use DCA can be all over the place, and in that respect I tend a find a preference to at least have a minimum of a four-year timeline when looking at that data (or trying to back test).. .. So a strict 4-year DCA strategy at $33 per week would put you at $6,897 invested and nearly 0.74 BTC, which would be about a 5.31x price appreciation.. and I see that again the dcabtc.com website is not giving me exactly accurate numbers.. but we can still get some ideas in regards to the longer term DCA strategies allowing for larger numbers. and even consistency so.. and surely any of us willing to be guinea pigs are able to show our actual numbers,** even if mistakes might be made along the way too.

**By the way, when I suggest giving actual numbers, I suggest talking about percentages rather than actual numbers, but sometimes actual numbers can be helpful too.. so long as there might not be OPsec concerns.

Regarding your cheering for "Let's go dip".. that's another story that a real HODLer should not be cheering for.. unless s/he/it is way underallocated (especially if been in bitcoin for at least 4 years) and made a whole hell of a lot of mistakes... .. but hey I will leave that angle for now.

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.

Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better!
Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:
Image loading...
The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes.

You seem to be making some other points Loyce and likely do not apply too well to bitcoin's history.. at best maybe you could proclaim on a 2-3 year timeline it would have been better to wait (even in bitcoin), but so frequently those ideas about waiting do not play out too well (except when monday morning quarter backing the matter)....

In other words, there are a lot of us in bitcoin who proclaim that peeps need to get the fuck in, and the price does not matter too much in terms of initially getting in.. Once you are in, then you might be able to tweak around on the margins the extent that you are in or various kinds of timing and the mix of strategies that might work beyond pure DCA.. so pure DCA has historically been amongst the best of strategies in BTC and sure it is possible that supplementing with lump sum investing and also buying on dips would have contributed to a bit of a better performance than a pure DCA strategy.. but at the same time, fuck that nonsense about trying to time and wait and blah blah blah.. get the fuck started.. and then figure out some of those other details about possible timing and possible strategic lump summing it or buying on dips later.

Then once you are in and you have been in for a while (talking about BTC here.. focus.. focus.. focus).... then it is going to be quite likely that your options have increased.. and time in the market is going to be better than timing the market.. so 4 years is likely better than 2 years and 10 years is likely better than 4 years etc etc etc.. we have not had too many folks who are more than 10 years (Jimbo, maybe?).. but mine is 8 years and it feels pretty damned good in terms of having more options and there is really no solid evidence to suggest that waiting is going to be helpful in bitcoin.. It seems that the actors and act as soon as possible have been proven to be right, and likely will continue to be right, especially if your timeline is long enough.. 4 years, 10 years or even longer.
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December 17, 2021, 08:01:28 PM


Explanation
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December 17, 2021, 08:10:33 PM



Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.


That man is weak.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes


When I tried to become a breatharian..... I had different challenges. One of them was to not eat for a certain amount of days and stay just with water, and try to cut water out as much as possible and get my water from the air I breathe. But there was a boundary I hit, and that was the burnt jet fuel from the higher atmosphere was interfering with my attunement.

Also another test was to sit in the dark alone for a long period of time. Or not talking or interacting with anyone for 1-2 weeks straight. (that posed another problem... my throat started to soar and vocal cords started degrading.... I think I should have started singing, but I don't like singing... Cheesy Cheesy )

Anyway.... prison is easy for some. And only a bored mind would find it hard to bear. But I guess I would sentence prison for a lot of bored minds if I had a chance... not a physical one 100%, but something to make them accept their pain and then treasure it. Smiley  Cool  Grin  Roll Eyes  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy

Prison is so easy for guys like you, as long as you have a big jar of Vaseline.

I think you are losing your grip (on reality) bud.
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December 17, 2021, 08:15:08 PM
Last edit: December 17, 2021, 08:29:04 PM by savetherainforest



Punishment waaaaay to hard…..

Hope you get your freedom once again.


That man is weak.  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

(...more stupid bullshit...)



3000 days.
And you are comparing that to two weeks of no social interaction, "long time" in the dark and some fasting period?

Dude, whatever you shoot up your nose, vein or butthole, do a bit less of it!
"Trying to become a breatharian" involves recognizing and handling your ego.
You clearly failed that, too.

But you made me remember how contempt feels like. Let me thank you for that.

[...]


But I don't rly care if my ego bothers you. Doesn't that count?? Tongue Tongue  Grin  Cool  Cheesy  Cheesy  Cheesy


*edit():  I mean yeah... I probably have a big ego. But if u don't care if you got a big ego. Doesn't that count??... I mean...... I don't feel any prejudice from trying to diminish or hold back my ego, I just let the flood pour and the Gates of Hell wide open. Who cares if we all go to hell?? WE SHOULD GO THERE(TO HELL) ON PURPOSE !!! Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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December 17, 2021, 08:15:48 PM


It is a cotton tee shirt not a sweater but I purchased a royal blue one.


BTW. buy the dip and hodl!

I still have my $50 a day at coinbase

and I purchased $50 from PayPal today.

My PayPal holdings are about $2400 and I am about 400 ahead. If we tank to say 32k-36K I would be -100 or -200 loss.

  My PayPal BTC will be in the red. Since it is always paid in $usd It presents a possible  way to free cash and get a capital gains offset against my 18000 usd worth sold at 61-67k. Such fun.

I get to hodl and sell at the same time.

Lets go dip.

I hate to stalk you too much philip... or maybe I do...


I remember you starting the paypal thread right when Paypal had allowed for the purchasing of BTC through their app which was on October 21, 2020.. so when I saw your current rendition of ONLY having in the ballpark of $400 profits from a $2k investment (around 20% profits)... I was starting to consider that you had underperformed a strict DCA strategy which would have gotten you about 63% profits (presuming an investment of $33 per week that would get you to $2k invested in the past 14-ish months)... but then i noticed that the DCAbtc.com numbers are not exactly correct, and I had noticed those kinds of inconsistencies with the website before..... so sure sometimes our ballpark is not correct.. and sure maybe you are in the ballpark of an acceptable DCA profits level.
 
Actually, sometimes the very short-term investing that use DCA can be all over the place, and in that respect I tend a find a preference to at least have a minimum of a four-year timeline when looking at that data (or trying to back test).. .. So a strict 4-year DCA strategy at $33 per week would put you at $6,897 invested and nearly 0.74 BTC, which would be about a 5.31x price appreciation.. and I see that again the dcabtc.com website is not giving me exactly accurate numbers.. but we can still get some ideas in regards to the longer term DCA strategies allowing for larger numbers. and even consistency so.. and surely any of us willing to be guinea pigs are able to show our actual numbers,** even if mistakes might be made along the way too.

**By the way, when I suggest giving actual numbers, I suggest talking about percentages rather than actual numbers, but sometimes actual numbers can be helpful too.. so long as there might not be OPsec concerns.

Regarding your cheering for "Let's go dip".. that's another story that a real HODLer should not be cheering for.. unless s/he/it is way underallocated (especially if been in bitcoin for at least 4 years) and made a whole hell of a lot of mistakes... .. but hey I will leave that angle for now.

The psychological cost of waiting. Especially applies to Bitcoin.

Now add 7 more years before this graph: from the start of the year 2000 until the end of the year 2002 waiting would have been a good call. Waiting until spring 2009 would have been even better!
Obviously, you can't know for sure until it's too late, but judging by this graph, I wouldn't be surprised by a huge correction at some point, especially since the Shiller PE Ratio has been above the MEAN for most of the last 30 years. I'd be much more confident when it's under 15 than when it's more than 100% above the MEAN:
Image loading...
The current value is in between what is was in 1929 and 2000, both lead to very hard stock market crashes.

You seem to be making some other points Loyce and likely do not apply too well to bitcoin's history.. at best maybe you could proclaim on a 2-3 year timeline it would have been better to wait (even in bitcoin), but so frequently those ideas about waiting do not play out too well (except when monday morning quarter backing the matter)....

In other words, there are a lot of us in bitcoin who proclaim that peeps need to get the fuck in, and the price does not matter too much in terms of initially getting in.. Once you are in, then you might be able to tweak around on the margins the extent that you are in or various kinds of timing and the mix of strategies that might work beyond pure DCA.. so pure DCA has historically been amongst the best of strategies in BTC and sure it is possible that supplementing with lump sum investing and also buying on dips would have contributed to a bit of a better performance than a pure DCA strategy.. but at the same time, fuck that nonsense about trying to time and wait and blah blah blah.. get the fuck started.. and then figure out some of those other details about possible timing and possible strategic lump summing it or buying on dips later.

Then once you are in and you have been in for a while (talking about BTC here.. focus.. focus.. focus).... then it is going to be quite likely that your options have increased.. and time in the market is going to be better than timing the market.. so 4 years is likely better than 2 years and 10 years is likely better than 4 years etc etc etc.. we have not had too many folks who are more than 10 years (Jimbo, maybe?).. but mine is 8 years and it feels pretty damned good in terms of having more options and there is really no solid evidence to suggest that waiting is going to be helpful in bitcoin.. It seems that the actors and act as soon as possible have been proven to be right, and likely will continue to be right, especially if your timeline is long enough.. 4 years, 10 years or even longer.

I have 3 paypal accounts with 3 different balances.

Since buys made in Oct are now Longterm gain they drop off.

My paypal holdings were far less than my coinbase holdings

and my coin base holdings are less than my personal wallet holdings


Since the paypal accounts were never part of a dca move and were only when I would get rebates paid to my paypal accounts they were very inconsistent.

I think they are :

 800 this one has a buy in nov and dec that drop off and count as longterm gain.  I need to wait tiil dec 24 to cash the rest and have a solid loss on paper.

 1300  did not track these  two much

 2400
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December 17, 2021, 08:17:49 PM

Prison is so easy for guys like you, as long as you have a big jar of Vaseline.

I think you are losing your grip (on reality) bud.

I had to look up that bullshit savetherainforest was babbling about and I must say I support their right to do this to the fullest extent:

Inedia (Latin for 'fasting') or breatharianism /brɛˈθɛəriənɪzəm/ is the claimed ability for a person to live without consuming food, and in some cases water. It is a deadly pseudoscience and several adherents of these practices have died from starvation or dehydration. It is an established fact that humans require food and water (nutrients) to survive.

Yeah no shit.
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December 17, 2021, 08:24:55 PM

Prison is so easy for guys like you, as long as you have a big jar of Vaseline.

I think you are losing your grip (on reality) bud.

I had to look up that bullshit savetherainforest was babbling about and I must say I fully support their right to do this to the full extent:

Inedia (Latin for 'fasting') or breatharianism /brɛˈθɛəriənɪzəm/ is the claimed ability for a person to live without consuming food, and in some cases water. It is a deadly pseudoscience and several adherents of these practices have died from starvation or dehydration. It is an established fact that humans require food and water (nutrients) to survive.

Yeah no shit.

To be honest. It is an art that needs practice with years in advance and learn to love discipline. Smiley  Roll Eyes  Roll Eyes

Basically I had to learn to eat less, or at least at first try to eat less empty nutrient food. Then go to raw foods, then to tea. And I also had to learn to do a lot of weird sh!t... like consuming less energy with walking, learning to stand still or having an electrolyte balance from the thought if u move some muscles too much, you will eventually get cramps in those worn down body parts. It just does not happen over a night or two. Smiley  Shocked Shocked
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December 17, 2021, 08:42:52 PM
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I never understood the purpose of the climate hoax, not that the world is getting warmer (it has been since the last ice age) and that it's progress has been sped up by human activity but the predicted outcomes of doom and horror centuries into the future. Supposedly caused by a 2.0C increase in temperature. Absolute zero is -273C - 0 degrees Kelvin, if average world temp is 15.0C then we are at 288 Kelvin so even a 3 degree increase is just 1% more heat energy and this is supposedly going to catastrophically destroy the world. WTF I do not believe this.

id rather look at the temperature range that more or less supports life here on earth. that being between the freezing and (a bit less than) the boiling point of water (granted at sea level) rather than kelvins full range using absolute zero as a starting point. so call it, say (very broadly as its SOMA), 0 to 70 celsius? so 3*C is 3/70 so around 4% and 2*C is 2/70 so around 3%

3-4% seems pretty noticeable.

anyway i tend to agree its a bit overblown.. solar activity goes in long cycles and arent we in a solar warming period now?

unsure as im pretty stoned.

Have another smoke and think about it.

*puffpuffpass* done

let me rephrase it a bit.. the kelvin range is for physics mainly. and my 0-70*C should be -20*C to 50ish*C, i forgot to slide the 70*C range down.. was easier to do the math in my head. anyway..

so for a better number, how low a temp is survivable for humans and the ecosystem that humans need to survive? and then the highest.

for example how low and how high a temp can your crops and livestock survive long term, ie for generations. now how about bacteria and such that are also needed. isnt the freezing point of water considered a hard limit for crops and seasonal variances a bit deal for some crops? some of those crops/lifestock that now can exist at the current highest or lowest temp (the extremes) will not be able to survive if those extremes are moved. that will upset the ecobalance (is that a word?). there will be a new equilibrium reached of course and new species may move into niches that were occupied by those that die off but it could be messy.

but im more stoned now so i may not be able to type or think coherently much longer, if indeed it is even coherent now.

as a farmer you are more knowledgeable about how climate extremes effect your profession and nature so i do bow to your superior knowledge in areas such as this.
You make a very good point about bacteria which are as important in the soil as they are in our guts. Plus also whether different crop diseases would become more prevalent with even smallish changes in temperature.

The point about using degrees Kelvin is to illustrate how much more heat energy there is in a material when it is 1C hotter.

So if you increase temp from 20C to 21C the material does not possess 5% more heat energy because you are measuring from freezing point as zero but nearer 0.3% as zero is -273C.

My turn to get stoned later this evening, happy days.









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