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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
Total Voters: 62

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368761 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
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January 07, 2022, 09:07:17 PM

I think it’s looking pretty obvious now that the bull market is over. It shouldn’t bother any of you on a long time preference. I sold nothing in the 2017 bull & regretted it for ages. Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……



We're probably going to 30k in the next 12 months, I will buy back what I sold there. If not, no problem, 75% of stash locked away.

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

I'm somehow not completely sure about that. Something is not as it looks. Maybe I'm too naive or it's just my wishful thinking but I've got a feeling Bitcoin is going to surprise us again (in a positive way) win 2022.  Cool

P.S. I made your 2017 "mistake" but can it be called so? Time will tell...
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January 07, 2022, 09:13:19 PM

Undone by ether
Or blacklisted by tether
Which one is better?



#haiku

Quote
Tether also has a "recovery" mechanism in place, meaning it can freeze USDT and reissue them in certain cases.

Both centralized scams, there is no "better" when choosing between SHIT.

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January 07, 2022, 09:34:06 PM

I think it’s looking pretty obvious now that the bull market is over. It shouldn’t bother any of you on a long time preference. I sold nothing in the 2017 bull & regretted it for ages. Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……



We're probably going to 30k in the next 12 months, I will buy back what I sold there. If not, no problem, 75% of stash locked away.

I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.

I'm somehow not completely sure about that. Something is not as it looks. Maybe I'm too naive or it's just my wishful thinking but I've got a feeling Bitcoin is going to surprise us again (in a positive way) win 2022.  Cool

P.S. I made your 2017 "mistake" but can it be called so? Time will tell...


I sold about 40% of my BTC stash from Jan - Oct (2021) in many small increments.  My average sale price was some $42k and change (so timing was not the best, but BTC price now below my average sale price).  Very low cost basis, so will pay a hefty Cap Gains tax for 2021.  That allowed me to fund-up our two grandkids.

I am wondering when to get back in.  Perhaps if we decline to Novogratz's $38,000 - $41,000 (approx) might be a good time to nibble.

If we rebound strongly from here, that's OK too, I still have the 60% left.  Would I sell any later?  Talk me at $80k, and we'll see.

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January 07, 2022, 09:36:56 PM
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Undone by ether
Or blacklisted by tether
Which one is better?

#haiku

Neither one of them!
In King Daddy Bitcoin's eyes,
They don't stand a chance!

#counterhaiku
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January 07, 2022, 10:00:36 PM

I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.

What you do is you randomly assign percentages based on your current emotions  Cheesy

Are you serious dragonvslinux? 

Some of us might get lines wrong, but I suspect that cAPSLOCK is attempting to be objective rather than emotional, even if there are some faults in his squiggly placements.


I think we see bears that last something like the last 6 month one did, and then probably new ATH again, but most likely not the same sort of huge multiple...  things like 3x instead of 30x.

I have a similar outlook. The short-term bear markets within a bull market structure as we had in 2021. Rinse and repeat, until a blow-off top eventually occurs.

I think that’s a fair description of where we are at currently in terms of being in an ongoing bull market that takes a while to play out and after so much consolidating, I am having troubles imagining a blow off top that is any less than 3x our current ATH, even though I appreciate that there are minority scenarios that could end up playing out. 
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January 07, 2022, 10:01:27 PM


Explanation
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January 07, 2022, 10:05:54 PM
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Imho

Big players, institutional players, new people, who ever ….. have had 13years long to buy BTC on the cheap, over the years when BTC have become relevanter it have had serious dips and opportunities enough to buy cheaper, just as one is presented right now.
People whom invested in this apex asset of value are more and more keeping there hands onto it and are less likely to sell on the cheap… I think we will not have extreme low prices, people just have to buy on smaller discounts.
'

I have spent giant JJG size walls of text saying what you said well in few sentences! Wink

Say that it isn’t so. 

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January 07, 2022, 10:21:14 PM
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You can call "not selling in 2017"' a mistake ONLY if we dip below 20K.

Otherwise, I am still up more than 100% since Dec 2017.
It's "only" about 20% a year, but it ain't "a mistake".

There were faster horses, of course, but "they" are riskier as well.
The main problem with those is informational disadvantage.
In comparison with bitcoin where everything is upfront and the "rules" are clear, other projects could rugpull you before you say" what the f...?"
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January 07, 2022, 10:43:25 PM

Still a bit nervous we might dip into the $30k's - Don't think we're out of the woods quite just yet.

If we hit $39.5k, I'm going to start stacking again. Trying to keep my cash reserves where they are right now due to the ranch starting to really hit its stride.
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January 07, 2022, 10:49:31 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), d_eddie (1), psycodad (1)

Tether? Ether? Neither!
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January 07, 2022, 11:39:28 PM

Tether? Ether? Neither!
BUMPER STICKER!
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January 07, 2022, 11:40:36 PM

AC or DC?
Tesla showed us the right way,
Yet died a poor man...

#sparklyhaiku
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January 07, 2022, 11:41:09 PM

Tether? Ether? Neither!
WTF kind of haiku is that? Cheesy
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January 07, 2022, 11:45:07 PM

Tether? Ether? Neither!
For a change i am holding USDC Cheesy
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January 08, 2022, 12:00:04 AM

Tether? Ether? Neither!
WTF kind of haiku is that? Cheesy

You want a haiku?
Tether? Ether? Not either!
Is that good enough?

 Cool
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January 08, 2022, 12:01:37 AM


Explanation
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January 08, 2022, 12:13:03 AM

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January 08, 2022, 12:46:40 AM
Last edit: January 08, 2022, 01:00:22 AM by cAPSLOCK



This will not be true.  Not exactly.  And I am NOT offering any financial advice.  Do not let my bullish ridiculousness influence your decisions.  You can influence your own.


But I think one possibility is for Bitcoin to basically continue what it started doing... But instead of a tantrum throwing toddler, a moody teenager.

Not learning to walk anymore... But what comes after walking?
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January 08, 2022, 01:01:27 AM


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January 08, 2022, 01:12:14 AM



This will not be true.  Not exactly.  And I am NOT offering any financial advice.  Do not let my bullish ridiculousness influence your decisions.  You can influence your own.


But I think one possibility is for Bitcoin to basically continue what it started doing... But instead of a tantrum throwing toddler, a moody teenager.

Not learning to walk anymore... But what comes after walking?




...



...




RUN!!!
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