Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.
Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:
The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution.
I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels.
Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern.
Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again.
Nice analysis, but TA cannot include some macro factors like Chinese ban in May 2021. Without it, we would have made the trip to 100K already, most likely.
You're right, it can't. It certainly didn't in early 2021 that's for sure. Institutional & whale selling in the $50K-60K wasn't the issue though, but the lack of re-accumulation between $30K-$40K.
Possibly also because of this ban I realise. Hash rate was still struggling at these prices so the fundamentals weren't all pointing back to immediate upside.
I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close.
That I can understand. Price has been in the same price range for 12 months. It'd be naive to think it can't stay within this range for another 12 months.
That said, it's not common for Bitcoin's price movements to remain range bound for such extended periods, so while it's already happened for considerable time, I wouldn't bet on continuation either. Therefore, I think this long-term consolidation at higher levels is much more likely to break to the upside than the downside, simply based on current macro bullish price structure, nothing complicated here.
To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K).
In all honesty, I'm remaining open minded. Based on long-term moving averages like the 50 Week MA @ $48.3K that has now been broken, the bull market has almost ended. But I prefer to stay conservative with my perception of these averages, so only when this MA is sloping downwards will I consider the bull market over, likely with a retest that confirms it as resistance as well. Because in the meantime (many weeks), this MA can still be relatively easily reclaimed if price were to reverse and bounce to upside, as +15% really isn't a big move in Bitcoin world. Notably also for example on the mid-term when the 50 Day MA was broken the mid-term bear trend didn't begin, but when this MA starting sloping downwards instead. This is when we saw the breakdown below $53K.
I wouldn't rule out a re-test of $29K, but also think the mid $30K levels will be well defended, given the much larger amount of accumulation at these levels than distribution at higher levels. It looks like that half of these accumulators sold around the $50K-60K distribution level (or on average these accumulators sold half @ 2x), but otherwise the other half didn't (based on volume profile). So I don't believe they will be selling at break even after holding for 6+ months, as it's common for 6+ months hodlers to panic sell at break-even. They are more likely to re-accumulate at lower levels if it comes, or accumulate more in the mid $30Ks imo.
To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while.
As I've stated in this thread multiple times,
I still see higher highs and higher lows, and will continue to see that even if price corrects further to mid $30K levels. If prices reach the lower range of $29K-$30K, then sure, I will accept the fact the trend is completely sideways (rather than still within a purely macro bullish price structure), but again I find this unlikely for reasons above, minus a wick to flush out weak hands.
If the bull market were over however, I'd consider it to have ended with the original ATH of $64K, as opposed to that of $69K that was merely a fake-out, therefore creating an ATL or new local low in April time (ie 12 months of downside/sideways trading) as opposed to creating a new low in November time at much lower prices, like many are fearing right now. Ie, reversal in a few months at most.
The underlying issue I see right now is that open interest is at at time high levels, so in the short-term this is very bearish as traders are trading short-term bearish price movements to the downside. Previously price has always been dominated by miners, now it's clearly derivatives trading as well as futures. But just like when $40K was broken to the upside back in July, this can flip to bullish leverage very quickly.
Poll
