Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[heslo]

https://twitter.com/nayibbukele/status/1479947130366304258

Bukele going savage on that idiot Hanke

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

Well we're back to the price we were at last year at this time which means there's a year's worth of really tasty dip to be had!




edit: Screw you chart buddy!  

Are you proclaiming that we are getting more dip, or that we already had our dip in the last year (since we are largely back to the place from which we started)?

Well we're back to the price we were at last year at this time which means there's a year's worth of really tasty dip to be had!




edit: Screw you chart buddy!  

or sideways it is.  .

Right JJG?


until it is up

I feel like I am getting trolled...

In udder wurds... king daddy no doesn't do sideways... except when it does.


By the way, I would not characterize 2021 as largely sideways, even if we happen to be in the same place that we were a year ago, but whatever, do what you must (to your own peril) in terms of grasping to figure out and characterize BTC price dynamics matters.. and making too many assumptions that certain price ranges are going to be "available" in the future.

Another thing.  Remember pre September 2020.. to the extent that certain timeframes might be more relevant than others.. At a certain point, it became apparent that sub $10k prices are quite unlikely to ever happen again... but we did not really know that, even in October, November or December 2020.. but at sometime soon thereafter, it became more apparent that sub $10k prices had been lost forever (even though some folks are still waiting/hoping for them.. similar dynamics could well be happening in regards to sub $50k prices.. but whatever.. do what you will in terms of fucking around or failing/refusing to prepare ur lil selfie for UPpity.. not just referring to you Phillip but to anyone who believes that they can take certain BTC prices for granted and continue to fail/refuse to prepare for UPpity because they believe that they have it all figured out.. which they do, until they don't..


In udder words, it's all fun and games until someone's eye gets poked out.. and might be yours if you attempt to presume too much sideways.. or the continued availability of certain BTC price point opportunities in the future.

Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.

I have to correct something: I typed the wrong year, and fixed my post: it was the end of 2020 when I sold a substantial part to pay taxes, not 2019. That was around 75% under the peak price. Still not desirable, but better than 2019 would have been.

Fair clarification..

I am not sure if I would need to change my whole analysis just to plug in different numbers, except just hypothesizing a Loyce who happened to take a shaving in the end of 2019 versus a Loyce who took a shaving at the tend of 2020.. ..and I agree that there is a bit of a better situation to have the BTC price going up while shaving off like it was in late 2020 rather than dipping like it was in late 2019, even though not everyone thinks like me.. that's for sure.** 

**By the way, many times I have iterated that when we shave off any amounts of BTC, we should attempt to anticipate that we may well never be able to get those BTC back at the same price or at lower prices, even if we shaved them off during an exponential BTC price rise.. even though if the BTC price has risen enough, then our odds to be able to buy some or all of our coins back for lower prices some time down the road does increase, even though it is not guaranteed, and we should be planning accordingly - that we will never be able to buy those coins back at lower prices... At the same time, if we shave on the way up, our odds are much better for being able to buy back lower than if we shave off on the way down.

Probably my comment's still stand, even if we ended up talking about a hypothetical Loyce that ended up worse off than our real hypothetical Loyce (since rumor has it that you are the bottest of bots... so there's that angle, too....... . haahahahahahahahahahaha).

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

@LFC let's take it one day at the time.
Sure, it could go either way.

Mostly Biodom is correct.  Reversals do not necessarily just start to happening unless we get some kind of special bounce which would likely be a lot of volume and a further spike down before up, even though sometimes we do see those kinds of scenarios play out in which the downity stops and uppity resumes in a more gradual kind of way. 

For sure, many of us feel more confidence if some kind of battle takes place in order to have some kind of conviction about the reversal being real rather than fakity fake, but that that will frequently end with some kind of short-term spike down and then a bounce.

Either way.. or some variation of those... but if there is a certain kind of trend that is seeming to last in one direction, we know that the trend is your friend.. until it stops, so then a question becomes how to know that the down trend has stopped.. because sometimes we can get a bounce and then just resume the trend.... how much is enough?  How much is enough?

When we had our first major dip of 39% on December 3, about a week or two later, I had tentatively started to consider resistance points of $62k.. but now, since we have been bouncing around here.. and even having some more downity, there might be some need for more detailed attempts to figure out how much of a bounce that we need prior to getting back up to $62k.. so probably $52k, and $55k would be relevant points to consider that if we can bounce back above those points, then the bottom might be "in" even if the entering into noman's land is probably NOT until getting above $62k-ish.

@Macroscope17
Something that should help cushion BTC's downside in this cycle: yield.

In previous years it was a purely speculative asset. Not true anymore.

In a world of low rates, the ability to earn yield becomes very attractive when tacked onto potential long-term capital appreciation.
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479895758434357254?s=21

@Macroscope17
I can tell you anecdotally that the ability to earn yield is increasingly attracting high net worth investors to the space. We also know from public statements and SEC filings that companies are doing this or considering it, including MicroStrategy:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-12-17/microstrategy-may-lend-out-its-bitcoin-trove-to-generate-yield
https://twitter.com/macroscope17/status/1479897444737552387?s=21

Don't get too distracted by this yield nonsense... unless you are just playing around with very small parts of your holdings.. that you are willing to lose.. but I would suspect that through the years some of these products will become more competitive.. ..

last quarter mmpool.org hit 3 blocks of which I collected bigly. So I had to pay more for the last quarter than the first 3 combined. Had to redo all my tax moves due to the extra BTC

PILF

Problems I'd like to fight

Yeah 2021 was very good to me both $$$ and BTCBTCBTC wise.

Not in the league of many others  on the thread but I finally could end up as JJG say with f you money.

Maybe in 2 years  I would be there.

I believe that it is very realistic to consider a more conservative timeline, and also the possibility that the timeline could play out more quickly, especially if you have some relatively aggressive ("make up") tactics, and of course, you are not starting from scratch, either.

One of the problems with any shorter than 4-year timeline, is that we have seen scenarios in which a kind of down, flat, king daddy not cooperating, or at least not really making any significant progress can last for a decently long period of time to shake out the weak hands, and then none of us would want to be shaken out as a weak hand during times in which those scenarios seem to be playing out.. and we end up cashing out way too many coins too soon.. and do not get some of the benefits of the UPside.. Just consider folks who cashed out on the way up from the March 2020 liquidity event.. and they could have been cashing out too many coins throughout 2020 all the way between $6k and $25k, and it's not like BTC prices have ever meaningfully gotten back to those prices, even though there has been ongoing fear about such.. and such never to return to price ranges could occur again, and even though some folks may have felt pretty good about cashing out at $10k or even $12k or $14k which is quite a bit above the March 2020 bottom of $3,850, but still lot's of compounding opportunities seem to have been lost by people cashing out in those price ranges.. and sometimes there can be a lot of good feelings to NOT have to cashout as many coins .. such as cashing out 1/3rd or even 1/6th the amount by having some kind of ability to play your cards incrementally..  and sure sometimes BIG plays might work well too depending on the amount of an exponential UPpity run, presuming that those have not ended forever in bitcoin (and we have heard those kinds of depictions that from here on out stability blah blah blah.. many times, even though from time to time, for some strange reason, we still seem to witness exponential UPpity quasi-melting our faces.. until we need a rinse).

[bitebits]

At the end of the 50BTC block subsidy era, there was 50% of Bitcoin left to be mined.

At the end of today’s 6.25BTC block subsidy era, there will be 6.25% of Bitcoin left to be mined.

And on and on.


(additionally cool, in this 6.25 era, 6.25% of the total will be mined)

https://twitter.com/gladstein/status/1479703692974510082

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close.

To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K).
To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while.

Yes.. and you are unwilling to betting those terms that you assert including your assertion that the BTC price range for 2022 will stay within $29k to $60k.. and your assertion that there is ONLY a 1% chance of supra $200k during that timeframe. 

Sure, we would not need to bet the exact extremes that you are asserting or your outrageous pie in the sky probabilities that you have not really even described with specifics beyond vaguely asserting that $29k to $60k is the most likely scenario that you see... and what is it's probability?  30%? or some other number?  You have only asserted it as some kind of certainty but you are not really too keen on standing behind your own assertion.  Sure the less than 1% chance of going over $200k in the next year is surely specific enough if you would even come close to standing behind such nonsense.

The punchline seems to be that you don't even come close to any kind of serious discussion to really put some kind of bet down for your own assertions that you are proclaiming to be reasonable but not willing to defend them.

And surely such a bet, if it were to be negotiated does not even have to be for much money at all.. the money is just for an attempt to put some kind of tangibility to it especially since we are not really talking about 50/50 odds.....as far as I can determine.. if you have something that you want to evenly bet then maybe we could discuss that, but you seem to be claiming way higher than 50/50 odds that BTC prices would be staying in your stated range of $29k to $60k for this calendar year. 

Of course, since you are proposing less than 1% odds for supra $200k in the calendar year, then betting could actually put that number into concreteness.  Yeah, we have already gone over some of this, including your desire to diverge away from the topic and to create some other terms than what you are claiming and you also want to propose outrageously dumb numbers that do not even reflect the odds that you are actually asserting, even while at the same time you continue to proclaim scenarios that are quite likely low in probabilities, but you are assigning high probabilities to some of your proposed scenarios - anyhow your scenarios are either quite likely to be wrong or of much lower probabilities than you are spewing them out to be.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ivomm]

Since the poll is still broken, I suggest a mini poll: What will be the top price in the next week. I say 50 750$. Reasons: quite often after a 30%+ dip from the ATH follows a 25% increase from the bottom. I believe 40 600$ was the bottom, hence the number. If this is not the bottom, better prepare your wallets for the brief opportunity to buy below 40K.

[vapourminer]

Since the poll is still broken, I suggest a mini poll: What will be the top price in the next week. I say 50 750$. Reasons: quite often after a 30%+ dip from the ATH follows a 25% increase from the bottom. I believe 40 600$ was the bottom, hence the number. If this is not the bottom, better prepare your wallets for the brief opportunity to buy below 40K.

high price in the next week? ill go with whatever proudhon says minus one dollar. the minus one dollar thing is because hes so well known to be overly optimistic all the time so..

lowest buy ive hit is 41.4k usd so far.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Seriously though, any chance we could resume the bull market? Nothing would make me happier, I am doubtful though.

Just for you, since I know you're still holding 75% of stash and therefore hoping for upside. Here are some squiggly lines for you, as if drawn by a child, with volume profile included:



The point beside being a little drunk rn, is that last years move from $30K-$40K (accumulation) to $50K-$60K (distribution) meant very little in the long-term perspective, as price didn't continue higher. Now price has dropped from $69K down to $40K, it again means very little in the long-term, only that it's likely price returns to the accumulation zone. Just like when price returned to the distribution zone, for more distribution.

I think despite all the technical analysis, fundamentals, on-chain data and otherwise that vary between bullish and bearish, this is pretty neutral trading right now. Bouncing from above the accumulation zone, prior to further accumulation would be very bullish, but otherwise returning to the accumulation zone isn't as bearish as people consider, as there's nothing unhealthy about long-term consolidation at higher levels.

Of course price could drop to $25K, even $20K, but ultimately for the past 12 months this has always been the case. The only difference is that now it's less likely it seems. I'm still pretty bearish short-term, as only see broken support from what turned out to be no mans land (not re-accumulation), but I otherwise struggle to consider that the bear market has truly begun given the healthy accumulation and distribution pattern.

Sure it could take some months, maybe even many, but I doubt it will take until 2023, 2024 or 2025 until there is a new ATH again.

Nice analysis, but TA cannot include some macro factors like Chinese ban in May 2021. Without it, we would have made the trip to 100K already, most likely.

You're right, it can't. It certainly didn't in early 2021 that's for sure. Institutional & whale selling in the $50K-60K wasn't the issue though, but the lack of re-accumulation between $30K-$40K.
Possibly also because of this ban I realise. Hash rate was still struggling at these prices so the fundamentals weren't all pointing back to immediate upside.

I am generally agreeing with everything, apart from the new ATH in 2022, but, hey, I think that 60K and even a stretch to 65K is possible, so it could be close.

That I can understand. Price has been in the same price range for 12 months. It'd be naive to think it can't stay within this range for another 12 months.  

That said, it's not common for Bitcoin's price movements to remain range bound for such extended periods, so while it's already happened for considerable time, I wouldn't bet on continuation either. Therefore, I think this long-term consolidation at higher levels is much more likely to break to the upside than the downside, simply based on current macro bullish price structure, nothing complicated here.

To contrast, you still think that we are in the bull market, whereas I think that prior is either already over or ending with, hopefully, a milder bear (it very well just be a retest of 29K plus minus one-two K).

In all honesty, I'm remaining open minded. Based on long-term moving averages like the 50 Week MA @ $48.3K that has now been broken, the bull market has almost ended. But I prefer to stay conservative with my perception of these averages, so only when this MA is sloping downwards will I consider the bull market over, likely with a retest that confirms it as resistance as well. Because in the meantime (many weeks), this MA can still be relatively easily reclaimed if price were to reverse and bounce to upside, as +15% really isn't a big move in Bitcoin world. Notably also for example on the mid-term when the 50 Day MA was broken the mid-term bear trend didn't begin, but when this MA starting sloping downwards instead. This is when we saw the breakdown below $53K.

I wouldn't rule out a re-test of $29K, but also think the mid $30K levels will be well defended, given the much larger amount of accumulation at these levels than distribution at higher levels. It looks like that half of these accumulators sold around the $50K-60K distribution level (or on average these accumulators sold half @ 2x), but otherwise the other half didn't (based on volume profile). So I don't believe they will be selling at break even after holding for 6+ months, as it's common for 6+ months hodlers to panic sell at break-even. They are more likely to re-accumulate at lower levels if it comes, or accumulate more in the mid $30Ks imo.

To me, there is nothing in current behavior that indicates bull continuation. Alas, if it suddenly turns up, I might consider that the bull is still alive, otherwise I am of the opinion that we are in the new market cycle already with relative flat (or band of 29-60K) continuing for a while.

As I've stated in this thread multiple times, I still see higher highs and higher lows, and will continue to see that even if price corrects further to mid $30K levels. If prices reach the lower range of $29K-$30K, then sure, I will accept the fact the trend is completely sideways (rather than still within a purely macro bullish price structure), but again I find this unlikely for reasons above, minus a wick to flush out weak hands.

If the bull market were over however, I'd consider it to have ended with the original ATH of $64K, as opposed to that of $69K that was merely a fake-out, therefore creating an ATL or new local low in April time (ie 12 months of downside/sideways trading) as opposed to creating a new low in November time at much lower prices, like many are fearing right now. Ie, reversal in a few months at most.

The underlying issue I see right now is that open interest is at at time high levels, so in the short-term this is very bearish as traders are trading short-term bearish price movements to the downside. Previously price has always been dominated by miners, now it's clearly derivatives trading as well as futures. But just like when $40K was broken to the upside back in July, this can flip to bullish leverage very quickly.

[shahzadafzal]

Bitcoin Works for You, While You Work for the U.S. Dollar.


https://twitter.com/ssaurel/status/1479812885928943620?s=21

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation